The US Elections: Impacts on

International Development
Lawrence Haddad
Institute of Development Studies
 Outline
• Why does America matter for development?
• The current US commitment to development
• Candidates’ foreign policy framings
• What the candidates say
• What others say
• Will the election make a difference?
 Why does America matter for
Development?
• American sneezes and global contagion
• The “war on terror” $, &
• Multilaterialism and absent Gorillas
• Control of World Bank still strong
 US: commitment to development
aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security, technology
 UK/US comparison
US UK
• Strengths • Strengths
– Trade – Investment in poorer
– Investment in poorer countries
countries – Environment
• Weaknesses • Weaknesses
– Aid – Migration
– Environment – Arms exports
– Arms exports • Improvement since
• Improvement since 2003 + 0.3 points
2003 + 0.3 points
 Backgrounds of the Candidates
McCain Obama

• Generations of service in • Father, Kenyan (Luo)

Armed Forces • Lived in Indonesia as young
• Hanoi Hilton boy
• Senate • Mother worked in Ford
– energy independence Foundation
– campaign finance reform • Community organiser in
– reductions in pork-barrel Chicago
spending
• Senate
– Not many clues
 Foreign Policy Agendas: The Articles in Foreign Affairs
McCain: An Enduring Peace Built
on Freedom
• Winning the war on terror
• Defending the homeland
• Uniting the world’s democracies
• Revitalising the transatlantic
partnership
• Shaping the Asia-Pacific Century
• Building a hemisphere of peace
and prosperity
• Aiding an African Renaissance
• Preventing Nuclear Proliferation
• Securing Energy and Saving the
Environment
Obama: Renewing American
Leadership
• Common Security for our
Common Humanity
• Moving Beyond Iraq
• Revitalising the Military
• Halting the Spread of Nuclear
Weapons
• Combating Global Terrorism
• Rebuilding our Partnerships
• Building Just, Secure,
Democratic Societies
• Restoring America’s Trust
 What do the articles reveal?
McCain
• More the Idealist school
– US security & prosperity depends
on outcome of struggles--
international terrorism at heart--
between Future and Past, Progress
and Reaction, Liberty and Despotism
• Exceptionalism & Leadership
– Next president has a mandate to
build an enduring global peace on
foundations of freedom,
opportunity, prosperity and hope
• Ready to show America and the
world that this country’s best
days are yet to come
Obama
• More the Realist school
– Military strength “plus”
• Four Freedoms & FDR
• Marshall Plan & Truman
• Peace Corps & JFK
• Cooperation &
Interconnectedness
– Neither retreat from nor bully the
world into submission
– Security and well being of
Americans depends on security and
well being of those who live beyond
our borders
• We can be this America again
– To welcome American help
– To want to come to America
– Pictures of JFK on living room walls
 What do they say about development?
McCain
General I would enable entrepreneurs,
exporters to increase access to
international markets
I would press nations on the critical
importance on good governance
Educat- With a decent education, you can free
ion yourself from the threat of poverty
Water Recent U.S commitment to a public-
private partnership to deliver clean
water to 10 million Africans by 2010 --
example of how the U.S.can help bring
basic necessities to needy populations
Health The key to eradicating many diseases
in poorer countries is through more
accessible preventative health care,
particularly prenatal and child care.
www.one.org
Obama
I'll make the Millennium Development
Goals American policy
I'll double annual foreign assistance
from $25b to $50b by 2012
By 2010 I will invest at least $2 billion
in a Global Education Fund.
Through increased funding of up to
$1.3b annually and innovative
programs like 'play pumps,' I will
expand access to clean water and
sanitation.
I will increase funding for child and
maternal health and ensure that
increases in other important areas -
including HIV/AIDS is not at the
expense of those programs.
 VP Debate, October 2, 2008
• IFILL: I want to get -- try to get you both to answer a question
that neither of your principals quite answered when my
colleague, Jim Lehrer, asked it last week, starting with you,
Senator Biden. What promises -- given the events of the
week, the bailout plan, all of this, what promises have you
and your campaigns made to the American people that you're
not going to be able to keep?

• BIDEN: Well, the one thing we might have to slow down is a

commitment we made to double foreign assistance. We'll
probably have to slow that down.
Colin Powell endorses Obama, October 19, 2008
• MR. BROKAW:  What's not on the screen right now that
concerns you that should be more prominent in the minds of
the American people and the people running for president?

• GEN. POWELL:  ….also we have to do a lot more with respect

to poverty alleviation and helping the needy people of the
world.  We need to increase the amount of resources we put
into our development programs to help the rest of the world. 
Because when you help the poorest in the world, you start to
move them up an economic and social ladder, and they're not
going to be moving toward violence or terrorism of the kind
that we worry about.
 Africa
McCain Obama
• AGOA • Add Value to Agriculture Initiative
• MCC/MCA • Engage Chinese on rules of the
• road on investment in Africa
PEPFAR
• GEE, GEF
• Democracy
• Stick with AGOA, PEPFAR, MCA
• Reduce US Farm subsidies
• More on judiciary, parliament,
• AFRICOM enterprise

www.africa.com
 Climate change
McCain Obama
as Senator as Senator
• Vocal advocate of cap and • Support cap and trade, but
not outspoken
trade
as candidate
as candidate • Strong advocate, green
• Dropped from speeches technologies, employment
• “Drill baby drill” • Advocate of US cap and
trade
 Trade
McCain
• A free trader “to his
fingertips” Irwin Stelzer,
Sunday Times
Obama
• Statements on unilateral
renegotiation of NAFTA
• Union support, Democratic
Congress
• “I believe in free trade….but
not that any trade
agreement is a good
agreement” (3rd debate)
 Things they will do & more things they should…
McCain will Obama will
•
•
Expand AGOA • Not be energetic on Doha
Not reform Bretton Woods
• Not double aid • Be energetic on Climate deal, but
• Not do much on climate change then lose interest and focus on
• Be more interventionist in humanitarian disaster green jobs
• Use MCA • Not double aid, although it will
increase
• Improve America’s image overseas
• Try to reform Bretton-Woods

They should…
• Reform USAID & double the Peace Corps
• Lead on post-Kyoto & make trade agreements work politically
• Double aid & make the MCA work better
• Reduce US farm subsidies & focus on African agriculture
• Improve accountability – “you are the change you have been waiting for”
 Will the election make a difference to
development? Yes, because..
• It mark the end of an extreme kind of
unipolar/unilateral conservatism
• We are entering a phase where people in the
US are looking more to government – good
and bad for development
• It reinforces the power of democracy to
correct mistakes