Population Stabilization Issues:

Specific Reference to India

Prasanta Kumar Saha

Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, UK,
Chartered Statistician, UK.
Visiting Fellow of EWC, USA.
(Former) Additional Director General, GOI

E-Mail : prasant20012001@yahoo.co.in 1
 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
INTRODUCTION
• POPULATION MAY BE TERMED AS A
MOST FASCINATING NATURAL
PHENOMENON ON MOTHER EARTH.
IT’S, PERHAPS, GOD’S MOST
BEAUTIFUL CREATION! SIMILARLY
THE EVENTS OF FERTILITY &
MORTALITY OF THE HUMAN BEINGS
AND THEREBY POPULATION GROWTH
ARE ALL PURELY NATURAL
PHENOMENA. 2
 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• CONCEPT OF POPULATION STABILIZATION
IS A VERY SOPHISTICATED AND SCIENTIFIC
CONCEPT.
• MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE
CLEAR PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THIS
PHENOMENON.
• IN INDIA SITUATION IS NOT ENCOURAGING.
• IN THIS COUNTRY THIS CONCEPT IS QUITE
RECENT.
3
 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• THE ISSUE OF POPULATION
STABILIZATION [PS] HAS RECEIVED
MORE ATTENTION SINCE LATE
NINETIES.
• THE PROCESS OF POLICY
FORMULATION ON FAMILY WELFARE
PROGRAM HAS PLACED SERIOUS
THOUGHT TO PS ISSUE IN
1996- 97 ALONG WITH RCH PROGRAM. 4
 INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• THE TERM OF ‘POPULATION STABILIZATION’
AS SUCH HAD FIGURED IN THE POLICY
FORMULATION ON FAMILY WELFARE
PROGRAM IN 1996-97 IN THE DOCUMENT OF
RCH PROGRAM.
• AT THE END OF THE YEAR 2000 PS WAS
INTRODUCED AS A FULLFLEDGED POLICY IN
THE NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY-2000
[NPP2000] FORMULATED IN THE END OF 2000
BY THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
[DEPARTMENT OF FAMILY WELFARE,
MINISTRY OF HEALTH & FW]. 5
 DEFINITION
• POPULATION STABILIZATION IS A SCIENTIFIC
TERM. IN ESSENCE, IT IS A DEMOGRAPHIC
CONCEPT [ AS IT IS WELL KNOWN,
DEMOGRAPHY IS THE IMPORTANT BRANCH
OF THE STATISTICAL SCIENCE].
• AS PER DEMOGRAPHIC DEFINITION, BY
POPULATION STABILIZATION WE MEAN
CONSTANT BIRTH RATES AND CONSTANT
DEATH RATES IN THE SPECIFIC AGE
STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION OVER A
6
PERIOD OF TIME.
 DEFINITION-CONTD.
• MORE SPECIFICALLY, A POPULATION WILL BE
TERMED TO ATTAIN STABILITY IF IT ACHIEVES
REPLACEMENT LEVEL OF FERTILITY i.e. IF
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE [TFR]=2.1.
• THE PERCEPTIBLE TIME PERIOD IS
GENERALLY NOT CATEGORICALLY DEFIEND
OVER WHICH AGE-SPECIFIC BIRTH RATES
AND DEATH RATES WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
SO THAT A POPULATION WILL BE DECLARED
TO HAVE ATTAINED STABILITY. 7
 DEFINITION-CONTD.
• THE TIME PERIOD OF PS AND THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF PS IS
DEPENDENT UPON
A)THE CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC
STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION.
B) DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION,THE
THEORY OF WHICH IS LINKED WITH
CLASSICAL INGREDIENTS OF
DEMOGRAPHIC MODERNIZATION.
8
DEFINITION-CONTD.
C) CLASSICAL TRANSITION THEORY
[THOUGH IN SOME ENVIRONMENTS OR
REGIONS TRANSITION REMAINS A FUZZY
CONCEPT].
IF A POPULATION EXHIBITS CONSTANT AGE
SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY, THE
POPULATION WILL EVENTUALLY SHOW A
CONSTANT AGE DISTRIBUTION AND WILL
THEREAFTER INCREASE WITH
CONSTANT GROWTH RATE. 9
DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS: THIS DEFINITION IS BASED ON A
NO. OF ASSUMPTIONS AS STATED BELOW:
1) FOR ANALYTICAL PURPOSE, FEMALE
POPULATION IS CONSIDERED AS IT PASSES
THROUGH A DEFINED INTERVAL OF FERTILE AGES

2)STOCHASTIC APPROACH: THAT A FEMALE CHILD

JUST BORN WILL SURVIVE UPTO CERTAIN AGE X, IS
ASSOCIATED WITH FIXED PROBABILITY, SAY, A(X).
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DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD:
3) STOCHASTIC APPROACH: THERE
ALWAYS EXISTS A PROBABILTY, SAY,
B(X) THAT A FEMALE WHO IS ALIVE AT
CERTAIN AGE X WILL BEAR A
FEMALE CHILD BETWEEN AGE X &
X+dX.

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DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD:
4) LET L IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE
RANGE OF AGES 0 TO L SO THAT AT
AGE L, A(X)=O. LET L1 & L2 ARE 2 AGES
SO THAT 0<L1<L2<L. THEN B(X)=0 WHEN
X<L1 AND X>L2 i.e. B(X)=0 OUTSIDE THE
INTERVAL (L1, L2). IN THIS CASE L2 IS
THE MAXIMUM REPRODUCTIVE AGE OF
A FEMALE.
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 DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD:
5) THE POPULATION IS CLOSED TO
MIGRATION.
• UNDER THIS THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AS
NARRATED ABOVE, THE OBJECTIVE OF THE
STABLE POPULATION MODEL IS TO FIND OUT
THE DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
POPULATION WHICH STARTS WITH A SPECIFIC
AGE STRUCTURE AND PASSES THROUGH A
SPECIFIC DEMOGRAPHIC PERIOD.
• AGE STRUCTURE OF A STABLE POPULATION IS
THUS TIME INVARIANT. 13
Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India

STABLE POPULATION MODEL:

• CONCEPT ORIGINATED IN 1911
[F. R. SHARPE & A. J. LOTKA].
• THE CHARACTERISTIC EQUATION OF
THIS MODEL IS AS FOLLOW:
 Exp[-rx] A(x)B(x) dx = 1, 0<x< t,
A(x) & B(x) have been defined earlier

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 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India

STABLE POPULATION MODEL-CONTD:

LET B = INTRINSIC BIRTH RATE IN
STABLE POPULATION. THEN,
1
B = -----------------
 Exp[-rx] A(x) dx
Where 0 < X < 
15
 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
STABLE POPULATION MODEL-CONTD:
Let Pt = Proportion of Stable Population
at time t.
Then , Pt = B Exp[-rt]A(t).
r= Rate of Growth of a stable population.
AT THE END OF A GENERATION, A
STABLE POPULATION WILL BE
LARGER BY A MAGNITUDE WHICH IS
EQUAL TO NET REPRODUCTIVE RATE
[NRR]. 16
 IMPORTANT FEATURES OF A STABLE
POPULATION:
• INDIA: POLICY DECISION OF THE
GOVERNMENT IS THE DETERMINANT OF
FERTILITY IN CONTRAST TO MANY
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WHERE
INDIVIDUAL COUPLES ACT PRIMARILY IN
THEIR OWN INTEREST.
• CONCEPT OF POPULATION CONTROL IS
YET TO BE EMBEDDED WITH THE CULTURE
OF THE PEOPLE PARTICULARLY IN THE
RURAL INDIA. 17
 IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• DURING LAST ABOUT ONE DECADE
MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES HAVE
ACHIEVED STABLE POPULATION.
• INDIA HAS TO WAIT A VERY LONG
PERIOD OF AT LEAST ANOTHER 4
DECADES TO ACHIEVE IT. THAT ALSO
DEPENDS ON MANY UNPREDICTABLE
FACTORS.
• AS PER NATIONAL POPULATION
POLICY 2000 [NPP200] , INDIA MAY
EXPECT POPULATION STBILIZATION
BY 2045. THUS THE COUNTRY IS TO
WAIT FOR ABOUT A CENTURY AFTER
HER INDEPENDENCE TO HOPE FOR
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ACHIEVEING THIS.
 IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• THERE ARE DEARTH OF DETAILED
STUDIES OR SERIOUS RESEARCH IN
THE SUBJECT OF POPULATION
STABILIZATION IN INDIA.
• THEREFORE NO RELEVANT REFERENCE
MATERIALS FOR PROVIDING PRACTICAL
GUIDANCE ON IMPLEMENTATION OF
POPULATION STABILIZATION
TECHNIQUES IS AVAILABLE.

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• IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• POPULATION STABILIZATION IS NOT A
SIMPLE ISSUE. RATHER IT IS A
COMPLICATED SUBJECT DEPENDING
ON SOCIAL, ECONOMICAL,
DEMOGRAPHIC, POLITICAL,
RELIGIOUS AND OTHER FACTORS.

20
 IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• THE PROCESS OF ACCEPTANCE OF
CONTRACEPTIVES BY THE PEOPLE IS
ABSOLUTELY VOLUNTARY. THIS
STATE OF AFFAIRS DOES NOT
PROVIDE CLEAR-CUT ENCOURAGING
TREND AND DOES NOT EXHIBIT A
VERY DEPENDABLE BEHAVIOUR
TOWARDS ACHIEVING PS.
• THIS CULTURE DOES NOT GIVE A
FILLIP TOWARDS A FASTER PROCESS
OF STABILIZATION.
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India

POPULATION OF INDIA DURING 1951-2001

YEAR POPLN[MILN]
1951 361 POPULATION-INDIA

1961 439
POPLN[MILN]

1500
1971 548 1000
Populn[Milln]
500
1981 683 0
1991 846 1 2 3 4 5 6
YEAR
2001 1027
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 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
• TFR OF INDIA DURING 1951-2001
• YEAR TFR TFR-INDIA
• 1951 6.0
8
• 1961 5.5 6
TFR
4
TFR

•
Series2
1971 5.0 2
0

• 1981` 4.5 1 2 3
YEAR
4 5 6

• 1991 3.8
• 2001 3.0[Estimated]
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 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
CONCLUSION:
• POPULATION STABILIZATION ISSUE IS A
QUITE COMPLICATED ISSUE.
• IN A SOCIETY LIKE INDIA EMBRACING
VOLUNTARY APPROACH TOWARDS FAMILY
PLANNING, IT IS A MATTER OF HIGH
SPECULATION WHETHER THE COUNTRY
WILL ULTIMATELY ACHIEVE A STABLE
POPULATION BY THE YEAR 2045 AS
MENTIONED IN THE NATIONAL POPULATION
POLICY 2000. 24
CONCLUSION-CONTD:
• EVEN THE POPULATION TOUCHES THE
THRESHOLD OF STABILITY AFTER 4
DECADES FROM NOW, BY THAT TIME
ABOUT 700 MILLION PEOPLE MAY GET
ADDED [ ESTIMATING BY DETERMINISTIC
PROJECTION METHOD WITH MODEST
GROWTH RATES VARYING FROM 1.1% TO
ABOUT 1.7% DURING THE FOUR DECADES].
THUS BY THE YEAR 2045 THE POPULATION
MAY BE ABOUT 1700 MILLION [THIS
ESTIMATION PERTAINS ENTIRELY TO THIS
25
AUTHOR].
 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
CONCLUSION-CONTD:
• IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
TOWARDS STABILIZATION PROCESS
BECOMES TOO TOUGH IN VIEW OF
VOLUNTARY APPROACH ON THE ONE
HAND AND VERY LOW
CONTRCEPTIVE PREVALENCE RATE
[ ABOUT 45%] ON THE OTHER.

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 Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
CONCLUSION-CONTD:
• ONE ‘GOOD’ ASPECT OF THE
PRESENT HIGH POPULATION
ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH GROWTH
RATE IS THAT INDIA WILL, PERHAPS,
NEVER FACE THE PROBLEM LIKE
DEPOPULATION OR DEEQUILIBRIUM
IN HER DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN.
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THANKS

Prasanta 28