FORECASTING

Putri Gresia Simatupang 17120019

Yulita Evinora Saragih 17120024
RahelYolanda Sidabutar 17120027
Febi Sulistia 17120029
Shalsa Namira Atisha 17120032
Madonna Samosir 17120035
 CRITICAL READING FROM THE BOOK

◦ The Title of the book is The Future of English.

◦ The author’s provide this book to tell a reader about METHOD.
◦ The Author of this book is David Graddol. David Graddol hereby asserts and gives notice of his right
under section 77 of the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author of this
work.
◦ This book was first published on 1997,but this book was published by The British Council 1997,2000
◦ This book was written in response to anything specific such as a historical but the writer forecasting that
how the future of English so that we can know and then learn from this book
◦ According of our group, this book was published in a periodical. In the cover of book we can read that
this book was published by The British Council 1997,2000.
This book is about the English language in the 21st Century. It is a practical briefing
document, written for educations, publication manager indeed any decision maker or
planning team with a professional interest in the development of English worldwide. The
book explores the possible long-term impact on English of developments in
communications technology, growing economic globalization and major demographic
shifts.

The book has been commissioned by the British Council to complement the many texts
already available about the teaching and learning of English, the history and development
of English and the diversity of forms of English worldwide.
FUTUROLOGI
Futurology in the social sciences, the study of
current trends in order to forecast future
developments. While the speculative and
descriptive aspects of futurology are traceable
to traditions of utopian literature and science
fiction
Futurology is one of the oldest of professions, judge with skepticism and awe in equal
measure. Although facts and figures are an important ingredient in forecasting, they
need to be interpreted with care.

TREND SPOTTING
HOW DOES LANGUAGE CHANGE?
PROBLEM WITH STATISTICS
TREND SPOTTING

Futurologists inhabit a frontierland between historical facts and guesses about the
future. Most of the practical techniques of strategic planning used by large
corporations employ some kind of mix of empirical evidence together with the
insight and judgements borne of practically experienced . identifying current trends
is very problematic even thought it uses futurology and shows statistic on trend
data that is opposite. English in the future as in the past will be subject to three
types of change namely : 1) different speaker 2)different status 3)different
quantitative
 HOW DOES LANGUAGE CHANGE?
 Some kinds of change occur quickly , other slowly
 Individuals act as agents of change as do governments and institutions
 Innovation in language tends to diffuse through social networks
 Language change does not move across geographical territories in a linear fashion
 Young people are important leaders of change
 Language change may follow change in material circumstances
 Social and geographical mobility cause language change
 Problem with statistic
1. Statistic rarely provide equivalent data across the countries , sectors and years surveyed
2. Statistic data is collected primarily by national or international agencies. It means, either not collected is not
publicy available
3. Statistic take too much time to collect, collate and publish
4. Statistic are costly and futurologist tend to be under founded
5. Very little comparative data exists for the immediate sphere of our enguiry ; the lack of comparative data means
that futurologist have make their own fact : to put together what is known an innovative manner and make
informed estimates
6. Interpretation of statistic needs qualitative work as Peter Schwarz, tell we know the number we just don’t know
their meaning it means that not balance.
 MAKING SENSE OF TRENDS

SIMPLE PROJECTIONS
RECOGNISING TRENDS
WHEN SEVERAL TRENDS INTERACT
CYCLICAL PATTERNS
PREDICTABILITY AND CHAOS

Using forecasting models

Forecasting L1 and L2 speakers
A world in chaos
Chaos Theory
 SCENARIO PLANNING

Dealing with Uncertainty

The important of process
The importance of a good story
Social and Political Forecasting
Scenario Planning
 SUMMARY
Scarcity of relevant facts:There is a surprising scarcity of a data which directly relates to the
development of global English,since there is no central international authority which collects such
information.Variety of change:A wide range of change is occuring in the status and form of English
around the world.Some changes are relatively swift and ephemal (such as fashions in vocabulary),others
are more profound and long-term (such as language shift in families).The complex interplay of
causes:We may be able to identify some of the apparent ‘drives’of change the circumstances which
appear to encourage people to learn English or to give up their parents’ language in favour of english but
the way such causes of change interact with each other makes prediction of the direction and extent of
change extremely hazardous. Some predictions are safe,others dangerous:An understanding of the nature
of change helps identify what kind of prediction is relatively safe and what is dangerous. The growth and
decline of native speakers of a language is a relatively long-term change which can be monitored and to
some extent forecast. Changes in the number of people learning English as a foreign
language,however,may be surprisingly volatile. Scenario building:Scenario building is one approach of
strategic management which allows an understanding of the causes and patterns of change to inform
forward planning,even where there is considerable uncertainty about what the future might hold.
‘Forecasting’ in a narrow sense of building models which predict future patterns of behaviour,is not the
only form of ‘futurology’
 TOPIC

The Prediction of English Language will fare any better.

AUTHOR’S PERSPECTIVE

History is littered with failures of prediction and there is no reason to believe that attempts to
predict precisely what will happen to the English language will fare any better. It is, however,
possible to understand something of the ways in which language evolve and how individual
speakers adapt their pattern of language use. But many factors affecting the use of language
cannot be predicted easily. Most people have opinions, ambition and anxieties about the future, but
few people know how to plan strategically for such unpredictable events.
 OWN PERSPECTIVE

According to our group, the prediction of English language that English language
cannot developing in a short period of time, besides that in the process of
developing English language requires several factors such as: professional teachers,
adequate technology and facilities that are able to develop one's thinking power in
developing English. In addition, many factors that influence the use of language
cannot be predicted easily, namely the great upheaval of war and civil, civil war
revolutions, revolutions and divisions between nations that cause language between
countries to experience opposition. As for several other predictions, namely that
language undergoes a revolution. Examples of Danish history and English have led
to major changes in language changes and new languages.
 EVALUATING

Some predictions are safe,others dangerous that an understanding of the

nature of change helps identify what kind of prediction is relatively safe
and what is dangerous. The growth and decline of native speakers of a
language is a relatively long-term change which can be monitored and to
some extent forecast. Changes in the number of people learning English
as a foreign language,however,may be surprisingly volatile.