Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Retail Division
3 April 2018
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Kata-kata Mutiara
Dari buku investasi
Fundamental Analysis
INVESTASI SAHAM
Industri
Rerata Volume
Transaksi Harian
(Likuiditas)
Perusahaan
“Pendekatan
“Rerata besaran transaksi Bottom-up”
masing-masing saham
dalam periode tertentu.”
PVFCFF xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx
Terminal Value xxx
Rasio Likuiditas
Rasio Keuntungan
Rasio Utang
Rasio Kinerja Operasional ??
Rasio Arus Kas
Rasio Nilai Investasi
Nilai Buku
Nilai Buku per lembar = (Ekuitas) P/BV = Harga
Saham
Total Saham
Nilai Bukuper
3 April 2018 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas Lembar
Dividend yield
Yield dividen
/Rasio dividen terhadap harga saham/
Ekuitas
28 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas
29 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas
30 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas
31 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Mandiri Macro Forecasts
Real GDP (%) 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3
CPI inflation (%, eop) 3.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 3.0 3.7 3.6
CAD to GDP (%) -2.8 -3.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -2.2
Highlights
2018 2017 2015
West Java DKI Jakarta Kalimantan Tengah
Cental Java Kalimantan Utara
East Java Kalimantan Selatan
West Kalimantan Sumatera Barat
East Kalimantan
North Sumatera
South Sumatera
34
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Source : detik.com
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
36 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas
The implication: suboptimum employment quality
Lower unemployment yet higher underemployment rate
10 7.0
5.1 4.3
2.1 1.2
0
-3.4
-10
1-14 hours 1-34 hours >35 hours
-20
-30 -24.4
2014 2015 2016 2017
37 © PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Dissecting Next Year’s Government Budget: More Spending Diversification
2016 2017 2018
Realization APBNP RAPBN
Energy subsidy 106.8 89.9 103.4
- Fuel a n d LPG 43.7 44.5 51.1
- Electricity 63.1 45.4 52.2
N o n - e n e r g y subsidy 67.4 79.0 69.0
- Food 22.1 19.8 7.3
- F e r t i l i ze r 26.9 31.2 28.5
- Seed 0.4 1.3 0
- P u b l i c s e r v i c e o b l i g a t i o n (PSO) 3.7 4.3 4.43
- Inter es t r a t e f o r l o a n p r o g r a m 5.1 13 18
- Governm ent-borne tax 9.3 9.4 10.7
Total allocation 174.2 168.9 172.4
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
38
Government’s infrastructure spending will also be more selective
Sources: MoF 39
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Market Outlook
2018
Risks
45
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas
Head Office Retail Division
© PT Mandiri Sekuritas