Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1. Introduction
2. Objective
3. Literature Review
3. What Is Probability Theory
4. What Is The Role Of Probability In Ai?
5. Conditional Probability
6. Joint Probability
7. Cumulative Probability
8. Summary
9. References 1
INTRODUCTION
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1.OBJECTIVE
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2.LITERATURE REVIEW
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3.WHAT IS PROBABILITY
THEORY?
• The word probability has several meanings in ordinary
conversation.
• Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will
occur in a Random Experiment.
• Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where,
loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates
certainty.
• The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that
the event will occur.
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EXAMPLE
• A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin.
• Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes (“heads” and “tails”)
are both equally probable; the probability of “heads” equals
the probability of “tails”.
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4.What is the role of probability
in AI?
• Many algorithms are designed as if knowledge is perfect, but it
rarely is.
• There are almost always things that are unknown, or not
precisely known.
• Examples: - IBM watson
- Weather forecasting
- Quickest way to the airport
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5.CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Fig:1.1
Example of conditional probability
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6.JOINT PROBABILITY
• If X and Y are two random variables, defines their
simultaneous behaviour during outcomes of a random
experiment is called a joint probability distribution.[2]
P(X,Y)=P(X)*P(Y)
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EXAMPLE
Fig-1.2
Example of joint probability 11
7.CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY
• A cumulative probability refers to the probability that
the value of a random variable falls within a specified
range.
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EXAMPLE
Assume 20% of Americans have no health insurance. Lets take 15
sample. Let X denote the number in the sample with no health
insurance. What is the probability that at most one of those sampled
has no health insurance?[4]
Solution. "At most one" means either 0 or 1 of those sampled have no
health insurance. That is, we need to find:
P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
Using the cumulative probability function variable are n = 15 , p =
20%=0.2 and r=80%=0.8 we have:
P(X≤1)=(15/0)(0.2)^0(0.8)^15+(15/1)(0.2)^1(0.8)^14=0.0352+0.1319=0.167
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9.REFERENCES
[1] William Feller- (2003). "Teaching Inference about
Proportions Using Bayes and Discrete Models." Journal of
Statistics Education, 3(3).
[2] Kai-Lai Chung- (2007). "Students' Understanding of the
Logic of Hypothesis Testing." Journal-of-Research-in-
Science-Teaching 16(1): 61-65.
[3]American Statistical Association (1998). What is margin of
error? What is a survey? S. o. S. R. Methods. Alexandria, VA.
Ayer, A. J. (1972). Probability and evidence. New York,
Columbia University Press.
[4]Ball, D. and G. W. McDiarmid (1990). The subject matter
preparation of teachers. Handbook of research on teacher
education. W. R. Houston 15
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