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Refining the Targets and Indicators of

the MDGs for the Urban Poor:
Some Provocative Thoughts

Florian Steinberg
Transport and Urban Development Division, South East Asia Department

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UN-Habitat’s State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011

• MDG Targets on Track? Slum upgrading projects brought 227

million out from slum conditions globally since 2000. Target
was only 100 million (too low!). 10 years ahead of time.
• Progress in China, India and Indonesia was attributed to these
developments.
• Upon scrutiny of the UN-Habitat data it appears however,
that the evidence presented is thin, and the method of
substantiation lacking.
• By 2010, absolute number of slum-dwellers increased from
about 777 to 827 million due to rapid urbanization.
• According to UN-Habitat a "do-nothing" approach will further
increase slum populations, reaching nearly 900 million world-2
 Slums in Asia China 173,988,000
India 109,501,000
Indonesia 26,852,000
URBAN POPULATION AT MID- YEAR BY MAJOR AREA, PROPORTION OF URBAN POPULATION URBAN SLUM POPULATION AT MID- YEAR BY
REGION AND COUNTRY (Thousands) LIVING IN SLUM AREA MAJOR AREA, REGION AND COUNTRY
(Thousands)
Major area,
re gion,
1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007
country or
area
ASIA
China 314,845 380,553 454,362 530,659 561,251 43.6 40.5 37.3 32.9 31.0 137,272 153,985 169,600 174,587 173,988
Mongolia 1,264 1,357 1,397 1,464 1,497 68.5 66.7 64.9 57.9 57.9 865.8 905.3 906.8 847.5 866.7
Bangladesh 22,396 27,398 32,893 39,351 42,191 87.3 84.7 77.8 70.8 70.8 19,552 23,206 25,574 27,860 29,871
India 219,758 253,774 289,438 325,563 341,247 54.9 48.2 41.5 34.8 32.1 120,746 122,376 120,117 113,223 109,501
Nepal 1,692 2,361 3,280 4,269 4,712 70.6 67.3 64.0 60.7 59.4 1,194 1,589 2,099 2,591 2,798
Pakistan 34,548 40,676 47,884 55,135 58,487 51.0 49.8 48.7 47.5 47.0 17,620 20,271 23,304 26,189 27,508
Cambodia 1,222 1,613 2,161 2,753 3,022 78.9 964 1,273 1,705 2,172 2,385
Indonesia 55,922 70,188 88,918 108,828 116,832 50.8 42.6 34.4 26.3 23.0 28,407 29,912 30,620 28,574 26,852
Lao People's 629 815 1,148 1,551 1,740 79.3 1,230
Democratic
Republic
Myanmar 9,986 11,270 12,860 14,700 15,575 45.6 6,703
Philippines 29,863 37,053 44,621 53,032 56,503 54.3 50.8 47.2 43.7 42.3 16,224 18,817 21,080 23,175 23,891
Thailand 15,974 17,416 18,893 20,352 21,021 26.0 5,291
Viet Nam 13,403 16,284 19,204 22,454 23,888 60.5 54.6 48.8 41.3 38.3 8,109 8,897 9,366 9,274 9,137
Iraq 12,906 14,878 16,993 18,729 19,316 16.9 16.9 16.9 52.8 52.8 2,182 2,516 2,873 9,889 10,199
Jordan 2,350 3,366 3,755 4,341 4,642 15.8 686
Lebanon 2,472 2,961 3,244 3,473 3,560 53.1 1,844
S audi Arabia 12,449 14,358 16,614 19,120 20,138 18.0 3,442
Syrian Arab 6,224 7,314 8,524 10,049 10,726 10.5 1,055
Republic
Turkey 33,949 38,974 44,126 49,097 51,101 23.4 20.7 17.9 15.5 14.1 7,947 8,055 7,911 7,610 7,202
Yemen 2,577 3,688 4,776 6,104 6,729 67.2 4,102

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Source: UN-Habitat. 2010. State of the World's Cities 2010/2011
 WHAT ARE SLUMS?
As defined by the United Nations agency UN-HABITAT, a slum is a run-
down area of a city lacking one or more of the following five features:

(i) durable housing (a permanent structure providing protection from

extreme climatic conditions);
(ii) sufficient living area (no more than three people sharing a room);
(iii) access in improved water (water that is sufficient, affordable and
can be obtained without extreme effort);
(iv) access to improved sanitation facilities (a private toilet, or a public
one shared with a reasonable number of people); and
(v) secure tenure (de facto or de jure secure tenure status and
protection against forced eviction).

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 Details of Reduction of Slum
• China: 65.5 million urban residents who were living with one or
more factors of shelter deprivations saw improvements in their
‘day-to-day’ conditions. China has targeted old villages within the
boundaries of expanding cities or (temporary) housing for migrant
workers through provision of access to slum dwellers of 20 million
new and affordable housing units through government equity
grants.
• India: 59.7 million slum dwellers have been assisted, and slum
prevalence fell from 41.5% in 2000 to an estimated 28.1% in 2010,
a relative decrease of 32%.
• Indonesia: lives of 21.2 million slum dwellers improved - a 33%
decrease; Indonesia’s urban slum population decreased from
34.4% in 2000 to an estimated 23% in 2010.

Sources of verification: - Global Urban Observatory 5

 NEED FOR MORE RELEVANT MDG TARGETS AND INDICATORS
 
• habitat quality – physical characteristics and resilient technologies;
• habitat density – space available per person;
• access to basic infrastructure:
– water
– sanitation
– solid waste collection
– drainage and flood control
– electricity and other services
– Safe and clean pedestrian access; access to public transport
• secure tenure.
• Gender dimensions
• Resilience to climate change impacts

Since the original target of the MDG 7C was severely understated, the donor
community and the United Nations need to assess whether MDG 7C really
makes any sense. A more relevant target – say of 50% of the expected slum
population - should rather be the established target for the coming decade.
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 Massive requirement for
urban densification and expansion
Developing countries could triple their build entire built-up area
Between 2000 and 2030: 200,000 km2  600,000 km2

This will mean three things:

-- Densification:
-- Urban expansion through suburban development;
-- Satellite cities and/or new towns.
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 What is Inclusive Urban
Redevelopment
• Urban Redevelopment (like urban
Critical components
renewal) needs to address:
– Densification:
• Redevelopment / of existing urban areas Support to
• settlement improvement or slum Livelihoods
and Commerce
upgrading
Land
– Urban expansion: development,
Local
• Metropolitanization Housing and
infrastructure eg
• medium sized cities water, sanitation Finance settlement
systems upgrading
• Guided land development/ Sites and
services
Transport
– Satellite Cities or New town Community links/Non-
development: facilities motorized
Transport
• Green field development
– Climate change mitigation/adaptation
mitigation
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 Conclusions
• UN-Habitat’s State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011 report exposes
weaknesses in the current status and quality of MDG work
• Need to improve country systems and UN-Habitat’s capacity to
produce better data on MDG progress. Funding and donor support
for the Global Urban Observatory needs to be revisited.
• A more relevant target, of 50% of the expected slum population at
2020, should rather be the established target for the coming
decade.
• If cities are not able to deal with their still massive slum problem,
they are likely to risk environmental and health targets and run the
risk of jeopardizing the economic performance of their own
economic success.
• A “do nothing”- approach is unacceptable not only from a MDG
perspective, but also from the goal of making cities competitive and
inclusive. Cities and governments need to weigh these options.
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