4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand

12/20/10
MARKETING RESEARCH
CASE 4: SONY: PLAYSTATION
12/20/10
 Sony has been selling Playstation
Game player all around the world.
 It is also selling the Game player
in India for last 2/3 years.
 Now it is planning to go full-
fledged and enter aggressively.
 You are appointed as a Marketing
Research Consultant for
understanding business prospects
of players and game CD’s in India.
 The future investment decisions
will depend upon the Research
report submitted by you.
2
 How will you carry out the Market
Research?
THE MARKETING
Co RESEARCH SYST
EM
nfu Di
s io
12/20/10
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s tomers bo on
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oc k P u c
b l W r ob l e m t p
a d a ref
Ro nt t ere
ok n ? nc
now h e e
What ad? st t h W
c a L e m
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fo b e ? n c t
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3
a e or N n g
S To b
THE MARKETING RESEARCH SYSTEM
12/20/10
 Marketing research is defined as the systematic
design, collection, analysis and reporting of
data and findings relevant to a specific
marketing situation facing the company
4
12/20/10
 Companies normally budget marketing
research at 1 to 2 percent of company
sales
 Most of the work is outsourced to
outside firms
5
12/20/10
 Companies outsource marketing research
services from outside firms:
 Syndicated –service research firms
 These firms gather consumer and trade information which
they sell for a fee
 NCAER (National Council for Applied Economic Research)
 ACNielsen-ORG-MARG
 IMRB International
 Customer marketing research firms
 They design and carry out research studies for various
clients based on specific briefs
 Specialty-line marketing research firms
 These firms provide specialized research services such as
 Developing a research brief
 Collecting field data

6
 Preparing data analysis and reports
THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS
Define the problem and research objectives
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Develop the research plan
Collect the information
Analysis the information
Present the findings
7
Make the decision
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 Step 1: Define the Problem and the Research
Objectives
 Problem should not be defined either too broadly
or too narrowly
 Broad or vague definition leads to excessive
wastage of resources
 Too narrow a definition leads to inadequate data or
information
 Clarity on following is required
 What is to be researched (the content, the scope)
 Why is it to be researched (the decisions that are to be
made)
 Working 8
backward from the decisions can be a
good way of defining problems
12/20/10
 Step 2: Develop the Research Plan
 Developing the most efficient plan for
gathering the needed information
 This involves decision on
1. Data sources
2. Research approaches
3. Research Instruments
4. Sampling plan
5. Contact methods
9
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1. Data Sources
I. Secondary Data: Are data that were collected for
another purpose and already exist somewhere
II. Primary Data: Are data freshly gathered for a
specific purpose or for a specific research
 Initially secondary data is used to analysis
 If secondary data does not exist or is dated or
inaccurate or incomplete or unreliable then
primary data will have to be collected
10
12/20/10
 Developing the most efficient plan for gathering
the needed
 Primary data can be collected in five ways
1. Observational Research
2. Focus Group Research
3. Survey Research
4. Behavioral Data
5. Experimental Research
11
12/20/10
the needed
1. Observational Research:
 Fresh
data to be collected by observing relevant actors
and settings
12
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 Developing the most efficient plan for gathering the
needed
2. Focus Group Research
1. Group of customers is gathered with invitation

and a moderator discusses with them
2. Usually incentives are offered to the group
3. Discussion is recorded using audiotape or
videotape or watched through glass
4. Transcripts are analyzed to understand 13
customer beliefs, attitudes and behavior
12/20/10
the needed
3. Survey Research
1. Using survey instruments like questionnire

survey is carried out
2. Surveys are best suitable for descriptive
research
14
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the needed
4. Behavioral Data
1. Customers actual purchases reflect

preferences and are normally more reliable
2. Some unknown facts may come forward,
like people buying things beyond their
segments
15
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the needed
5. Experimental Research
1. Cause and Effect relationships by eliminating competing
explanations of observed findings
16
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gathering the needed
3. Research instruments
a) Questionnaires
b) Qualitative measures
c) Mechanical Devices
17
12/20/10
a) Questionnaires:
 Questionnaires should be carefully develop,
tested and debugged

 The form of questions can influence the
response
 Closed-end questions provide all the possible
answers
 Open-end questions especially used for
18
exploratory research
12/20/10
 Developing the most efficient plan for gathering the needed
b) Qualitative measures
 Shadowing: Observing people using products, shopping etc
 Behavior mapping: Photographing people within a space
 Consumer journey: Keeping track of all the interactions a consumer has
 Camera Journals: Asking consumers to keep diaries
 Extreme user interviews: Talking to consumers who know everything or

nothing
 Storytelling: Prompting people to tell stories
 Un-focus groups: Interviewing a diverse group of people
19
12/20/10
 Developing the most efficient plan for gathering the
needed
a) Mechanical Devices:
 Galvanometer: To measure the interest or emotions aroused
by the exposure t as specific ad
 Eye cameras: To Study eye movement of the respondents
 Skin sensors:
 Brainwave scanners
 Body scanners
 Audiometers: Attached to TV sets to track the TRPS
 GPS: To know how many billboards a person walk by on drive
20
12/20/10
4. Sampling Plan
 Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
 Define the target population. First class, second

class, Business class, Vacation class
 Sample size: How many people should
be surveyed?
 Sample size in relation to total population
 Sampling procedure: How should the 21
respondents be chosen?
PROBABILITY AND NON-PROBABILITY
SAMPLES
 Probability sample
12/20/10
 Simple random sample
 Every member of sample has an equal chance of selection
 Stratified random sample
 The population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (such as
age groups) and random samples are drawn from each group
 Cluster (area) sample
 The population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (such as
city blocks) and the researcher draws a sample of the groups to
interview
 Non-probability sample
 Convenience sample
 The researcher selects the most accessible population members
 Judgment sample
 The researcher selects population members who are good prospects
for accurate information
 Quota sample
 The researcher finds and interviews a prescribed number of people
22
in each of several categories
12/20/10
5. Contact Methods:
 Mail Questionnaire
 Telephone Interviews
 Personal Interviews
 Online interviews
23
THE MARKETING RESEARCH
PROCESS
12/20/10
Step 3: Collect the Information
o Most expensive and most error
prone
o Respondents could not be
contacted
o Respondents refuse to cooperate
o Biased or dishonest answers
24
PROCESS
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Step 4: Analyze the Information
o Extract findings from the collected data
o Tabulate the data and develop frequency
distributions
o Averages
25
PROCESS
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Step 5: Present the Findings
o Relevance to decision making
26
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Step 6: Make the decision
 Final decision on the findings
27
QUESTIONNAIRE DO’S AND DON'TS
12/20/10
1. Ensure that questions are without bias
2. Make the questions as simple as possible
3. Make the questions specific
4. Avoid jargons or shorthand
5. Steer clear of sophisticated or uncommon words
6. Avoid ambiguous words
7. Avoid questions with a negative in them
8. Avoid hypothetical questions
9. Do not use words that could be misheard
10.Desensitize questions by using response bands
11.Ensure that fixed responses do not overlap
12.Allow for “other” in fixed response questions 28
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
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 A Closed ended questions
 Dichotomous
 A Closed ended
 Multiple choice questions
 Likert scale  Dichotomous
 Semantic differential
 Importance scale
 A question with two
 Rating scale possible answers
 Intention to buy scale  Will you consider
 Open ended Questions buying this product
 Completely unstructured
 Word association
 Sentence completion  Yes
 Story completion  No
 Picture
 Thematic Apperception
Test (TAT)
29
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 A Closed ended questions  A Closed ended questions
 Dichotomous
 Multiple choice
 Multiple choice
 Likert scale  A question with three
 Semantic differential or more answers

 Importance scale  Which company
 Rating scale
 Intention to buy scale
refrigerator are you
 Open ended Questions using?
 Completely unstructured  Godrej
 Word association  LG
 Sentence completion  Samsung

 Story completion
 Onida
 Picture
 Videocon
 Thematic Apperception
Test (TAT)  Other
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
o Dichotomous
 Likert scale
o Multiple choice
o Likert scale  A statement with which the
o Semantic differential respondent shows the

o Importance scale amount of agreement/
o Rating scale disagreement
o Intention to buy scale
 The service provided to you
 Open ended Questions
o Completely unstructured was to the expectations
o Word association  Strongly disagree
o Sentence completion  Disagree
o Story completion  Neither agree nor disagree
o Picture
 Agree
o Thematic Apperception
 Strongly agree
Test (TAT)
31
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
o Dichotomous
 Semantic differential
o Multiple choice
o Likert scale  A scale connecting two bipolar
o Semantic differential words. The respondent selects the
o Importance scale point that represents his or her
o Rating scale opinion
o Intention to buy scale
 Our showroom staff was
o Completely unstructured
o Word association
o Sentence completion
Experienced |---------------------------------|Inexperienced
o Story completion
o Picture
o Thematic Apperception Friendly |---------------------------------| Unfriendly
Test (TAT)
32
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 A Closed ended questions  A Closed ended questions
 Dichotomous
 Importance scale
 Multiple choice
 Likert scale  A scale that rates the
 Semantic differential importance of some
 Importance scale attribute
 Rating scale
 Intention to buy scale
 Open ended Questions  24 hours service
 Completely unstructured availability is
 Word association  Extremely important
 Sentence completion  Very important
 Story completion
 Somewhat important
 Picture
 Not very important
 Thematic Apperception
Test (TAT)  Not at all important
33
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 A Closed ended questions A
 Dichotomous Closed ended questions
 Multiple choice  Rating scale
 Likert scale
 Semantic differential  A scale that rates some
 Importance scale attribute from ‘poor’ to
 Rating scale
‘excellent’
 Open ended Questions
 Completely unstructured  Godrej After sales service is
 Word association  Excellent
 Sentence completion
 Very good
 Good
 Picture
 Thematic Apperception  Fair
Test (TAT)  Poor

34
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 A Closed ended questions  A Closed ended questions
 Dichotomous
 Multiple choice  Intention to buy scale
 Likert scale  A scale that describes the
 Semantic differential
respondent’s intention to
 Importance scale
buy
 Rating scale
 Open ended Questions  Your intention to buy
 Completely unstructured insurance in next six
 Word association
months
 Definitely buy
 Probably buy
 Picture
 Thematic Apperception Test  Not sure
(TAT)  Probable not buy

35
 Definitely not buy
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 A Closed ended questions  Open ended Questions
 Dichotomous
 Multiple choice
 Completely unstructured
 A question that respondents
 Likert scale
 Semantic differential
can answer in an almost
unlimited number of ways
 Rating scale
 What is your opinion of
Samsung products?
 Open ended Questions __________________________
 Completely unstructured
__________________________
 Word association __________________________
 Sentence completion __________________________
 Story completion __________________________
 Picture __________________________
 Thematic Apperception __________________________
Test (TAT) __________________________
36
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 A Closed ended questions
 Dichotomous
 Multiple choice
 Word association
 Likert scale  Words are presented, one at a
 Semantic differential time and respondents mention
the first word that comes to
mind
 Rating scale
 What is the first word that
comes to your mind when you
 Open ended Questions hear
 Toothpaste: ______________
 Picture
 Toothbrush: ______________
 Thematic Apperception
Test (TAT)
37
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 Dichotomous  Open ended Questions
 Multiple choice  Sentence completion
 Likert scale  An incomplete sentence is presented
 Semantic differential and respondents complete the
 Importance scale sentence
 Rating scale
 Intention to buy scale  Videocon washing machine is
 Completely unstructured ___________________________
 Word association ___________________________
 Sentence completion ___________________________
 Story completion ___________________________
 Picture ___________________________
 Thematic Apperception Test
(TAT)
38
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 Dichotomous  Open ended Questions
 Multiple choice  Story completion
 Likert scale  An incomplete story is presented
 Semantic differential and respondents are asked to
 Importance scale complete it
 Rating scale
 Intention to buy scale  Last time when I visited Big
 Open ended Questions Bazaar I went to the mall and
 Completely unstructured ___________
 Word association ____________________________
 Sentence completion ____________________________
 Story completion ____________________________
 Picture ____________________________
 Thematic Apperception Test ____________________________
(TAT) ____________________________
____________________________ 39
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 Dichotomous
 Picture
 Multiple choice
 A picture of two characters is presented
 Likert scale
with one making a statement.
 Semantic differential Respondents are asked to identify with the
 Importance scale other and fill in the empty ballon
 Rating scale
 Picture
(TAT)
40
TYPES OF QUESTIONS
12/20/10
 Dichotomous  Thematic Apperception
 Multiple choice
 Likert scale
Test (TAT)
 A picture is presented and respondents
 Semantic differential are asked to make up a story about
 Importance scale what they think is happening or may
 Rating scale happen in the picture
 Picture
(TAT)
41
THE SEVEN CHARACTERISTICS
OF GOOD MARKETING RESEARCH
12/20/10
 Scientific method
 Research creativity
 Multiple methods
 Interdependence of models and data
 Value and cost of information
 Healthy skepticism
 Ethical marketing
42
BARRIERS TO USE OF
MARKETING RESEARCH
12/20/10
 A narrow conception of the research
 Uneven caliber of researchers
 Poor framing of the problem
 Late and occasionally erroneous findings
 Personality and presentational differences
43
MEASURING MARKETING
PRODUCTIVITY
12/20/10
 Marketing metrics
 Marketing metrics is the set of measures
that helps firms to qualify, compare and
interpret their marketing performance
 Customer level concerns:
 Attitudes
 Behavior
 Brand level concerns:

 Market share
 Relative price premium
 Profitability
44
MEASURING MARKETING
PRODUCTIVITY
12/20/10
 Sample customer performance scorecard
 Customer performance scorecard:
 How well the company is doing year after year on customer based measures
 % of new customers to avg no of customers
 % of lost customers to avg no of customer
 % of win-back customers to avg no of customers
 % of customer falling into very dissatisfied, satisfied, neutral, satisfied and

very satisfied categories
 % of customers who say they would repurchase the products
 % of customers who say they would recommend the product to others
 % of target market customers who have brand awareness to recall
 % of customers who say that the company’s product is the most preferred in
its category
 % of customers who correctly identify the brand’s intended positioning and
differentiation
 Avg perception of company’s product quality relative to chief competitor
 Avg perception of company’s service quality relative to chief competitor
45
MEASURING MARKETING
PRODUCTIVITY
12/20/10
 Stakeholder-performance scorecard
 Employees
 Suppliers
 Banks
 Distributors
 Retailers
 Stockholders
46
MEASURING MARKETING PLAN
PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
 Sales Analysis
 Sales-variance analysis
 Contribution of different factors to a gap in sales-performance
Plan Actual Difference

Qty Price Amt Qty Price Amt
4000 Rs.1 4000 3000 Rs.0.8 2400 1600
Plan price Actual Price Difference Actual Qty

1 0.8 0.2 3000 600
47
Plan Qty Actual Qty Difference Plan Price
4000 3000 1000 1 1000
PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
 Sales Analysis
 Microsales analysis
 Looks at specific products, territoris and so forth that
failed to produce expected sales
 Western Region: State wise
Territories Plan Qty Actual Qty Difference Performance
Maharashtra 1500 1400 -100 -7%

Gujrat 500 525 25 5%
Madhya Pradesh 2000 1075 -925 -46%
Total 4000 3000 -1000 -25%
48
PERFORMANCE
Plan Actual
12/20/10
 Sales Analysis
 Microsales analysis 14” 300 100
 Western region-
Maharashtra 21” 300 100
 Product wise
36” 400 500
52” LCD 500 700
Total 1500 1400
49
PERFORMANCE
Plan Actual
Dass 400 600
12/20/10
 Sales Analysis Memorex 300 350
 Microsales analysis
 Western region-
Maharashtra 200 250
Maharashtra- Retailer Electronics
(Dealer) wise Damodar 100 60
R5 100 40
R6 100 0
R7 100 0
R8 100 50
R9 50 25
R10 50 25
Total 1500 1400 50
PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
 Sales Analysis Plan Actual
 Microsales analysis Mumbai 700 700
 Maharashtra Pune 300 500
Citywise (Branch Nagpur 100 60
wise) Nasik 100 40
Kolhapur 100 30
Solapur 100 30
Ratnagiri 50 10
Sangli 50 30
Total 1500 1400
51
PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
 Market share analysis
 Overall Market share
 Is the company’s sales expressed as a % of total market sales
 Served Market share
 Is its sales expressed as a % of the total sales to its served market
 Relative market share
 Market share in relation to its largest competitor
 Some facts
 The assumption that outside forces affect all companies in the same
way is often not true
 The assumption that a company’s performance should be judged
against the average performance of all companies is not always
valid
 If a new firm enters the industry, then every existing firm's market
share might fall.
 Sometimes a market share decline is deliberately engineered to
improve profits
 Market share can fluctuate for many minor reasons 52
PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
 Market expense to sales analysis:
 In one company it is 30% and for the other it could be 22%
 The details could be further divided as
Sales force expenses to Sales (15%)
Advertising expenses to Sales (5%)
Sales promotion expenses to Sales (6%)
Marketing research expenses to Sales (1%)
Sales admin expenses to Sales (3%)
TOTAL (30%)
 The tracking can be done on a control chart
53
PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
Upper limit
Expenses/ Sales ration
Desired level
Lower limit
Time period 54
The Control-chart Model

PERFORMANCE
12/20/10
 Financial analysis
 Rate of return of net worth
 Return of assets
 Financial leverage
 Composition of assets, accounts receivable,
inventory, plant and equipment
 Profit margins
 Asset turnover
 Performance can be improved by

 Increase profit
55
 Increase in asset turnover
PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS
12/20/10
 Measure profitability of their,
 Products
 Territories
 Customer groups
 Segments
 Trade channels
 It helps in deciding future plans
 Most of the companies has 20% to 40% products are
unprofitable
 Around 60% accounts generates losses.
 More than half customer relationships are not
profitable, 30% to 40% are marginally profitable
 Only 10% to 15% relationships generates the main
56
profit
 30% of banks branches could be unprofitable
12/20/10
 Marketing profitability analysis
 Steps in marketing profitability analysis
1. Identify functional expenses
2. Assigning functional expenses to Marketing
entities
3. Preparing P&L statement for each marketing
entity
57
12/20/10
 Identify functional expenses
P& L Statement (simple)
Sales Rs.60000
Cost of goods sold Rs.39000
-------------
Rs.21000
Expenses
Salaries 9300
Rent 3000
Supplies 3500
--------------------
Rs.15800 58
-------------
Net profit Rs.5200
12/20/10
1. Identify functional expenses
Natural TOTAL Selling Advertising Packing and Billing and
P& L Statement (simple) Accounts Delivery collection
ales Rs.60000
ost of goods sold Rs.39000 Salaries 9300 5100 1200 1400 1600
-------------
xpenses
Rs.21000
Rent 3000 0 400 2000 600
alaries 9300
ent
upplies
3000
3500
Supplies 3500 400 1500 1400 200
--------------------
Rs.15800 15800 5500 3100 4800
-------------
et profit Rs.5200
Supplies: Promotional material, packing material, fuel purchases for delivery, office statio
59
 Assigning functional expenses to Marketing entities
12/20/10
Natural Ac TOTAL Selling Advertising Packing and Deli Billing and collection
Salaries 9300 5100 1200 1400 1600

Rent 3000 0 400 2000 600
Supplies 3500 400 1500 1400 200
15800 5500 3100 4800 2400
Channel type Selling Advertising Packing and Deli Billing and collection
Hardware 200 50 50 50
Garden supply 65 20 21 21
Dep store 10 30 9 9
275 100 80 80
Functional exp 5500 3100 4800 2400
60
/ No of units 275 calls 100 ads 80 packaging 80 bills
Equal 20 31 60 30
 Preparing P&L statement for each marketing entity
12/20/10
Channel type Hardware Garden supply Dept store Whole co (Total)
Sales 30000 10000 20000 60000

Cost of goods sold 19500 6500 13000 39000
Gross margin 10500 3500 7000 21000
Expenses
Selling (Rs.20 per call) 4000 1300 200 5500
Ad (Rs.31 per ad) 1550 620 930 3100
Packing & Del 3000 1260 540 4800

(Rs.60 per prder)
Billing (Rs.30 per order) 1500 630 270 2400
TTL EXPENSES 10050 3810 1940 15800

Net P&L 450 -310 5060 5200 61
 Determining corrective action
Where buyers buy?
12/20/10

 What are new trends in channel?

 How good are the efforts for different channels?
 Alternatives
 Do nothing
 Remove loss making channels and focus on profit
making channels
 Make special efforts to build loss making channels
62
 Direct versus full costing
 Basis should be
12/20/10
 No of sales call or
 No of hours spent on call
 Three types of costs
 Direct costs: Sales commission, Advertising exp,
Sales force salaries
 Traceable costs: Rent
 Non traceable costs: Corporate image expenses,
Top management salaries, interests and overheads
 Will company become more profitable if it
shelves of Garden supply channel?
 Will rent come down?
 Will non traceable costs reduce? 63
FORECASTING AND DEMAND
MEASUREMENT
 Sales forecasts are used by
12/20/10
 Finance department to: Raise the needed cash for
investment
 Operations department to: establish capacity and
output levels
 Purchase department to: acquire the right amt of
supplies
 HR department to: to hire needed labour
 Marketing is responsible for preparing forecast
64
MEASUREMENT
 The measures of Market Demand for preparing
12/20/10
forecast
 Potential Market
 Available Market
 Target Market
 Penetrated Market
65
MEASUREMENT
 Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
12/20/10
 Market Demand
 Market Forecast
 Market Potential
 Company Demand
 Company Sales Forecast
 Company Sales Potential
66
MEASUREMENT
 Estimating current demand
12/20/10
 Total Market Potential
 Area Market Potential
 Industry Sales and Market Shares
 Estimating future demand
 Survey of buyers’ intentions
 Composite of Sales foce opinions
 Expert opinion
 Past sales analysis
 Market test method
67

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4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand

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12/20/10

 Collecting field data

Collect the information

Analysis the information

Present the findings

2. Focus Group Research

1. Group of customers is gathered with invitation

1. Using survey instruments like questionnire

1. Customers actual purchases reflect

tested and debugged

 Consumer journey: Keeping track of all the interactions a consumer has

 Camera Journals: Asking consumers to keep diaries

 Extreme user interviews: Talking to consumers who know everything or

 Un-focus groups: Interviewing a diverse group of people

 Define the target population. First class, second

 Semantic differential or more answers

 Sentence completion  Samsung

o Semantic differential respondent shows the

Test (TAT)  Poor

(TAT)  Probable not buy

 Interdependence of models and data

 Value and cost of information

 Poor framing of the problem

 Late and occasionally erroneous findings

 Personality and presentational differences

 Brand level concerns:

 % of lost customers to avg no of customer

 % of win-back customers to avg no of customers

 % of customer falling into very dissatisfied, satisfied, neutral, satisfied and

 % of customers who say they would recommend the product to others

 % of target market customers who have brand awareness to recall

 Avg perception of company’s service quality relative to chief competitor

Plan Actual Difference

Plan price Actual Price Difference Actual Qty

Territories Plan Qty Actual Qty Difference Performance

Maharashtra 1500 1400 -100 -7%

The Control-chart Model

 Performance can be improved by

Salaries 9300 5100 1200 1400 1600

Sales 30000 10000 20000 60000

Ad (Rs.31 per ad) 1550 620 930 3100

Packing & Del 3000 1260 540 4800

TTL EXPENSES 10050 3810 1940 15800

 What are new trends in channel?

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