Presented By:

Sajid Mahmood Farooqi

Research Student Department of Geography
University of Karachi, Karachi
 Sequence
Introduction
Objective
Basic Definitions
Cyclone as a Hazard
Configuration of Pakistan Coast
Characteristic of Pakistan Coast
Cyclone Hazard Vulnerability
Cyclone Hazard Vulnerable Areas of Pakistan
Cyclone Risk Maps of Pakistan
 Introduction
Over the past years cyclones tend to recur frequently though, most did
not seriously impact Pakistan’s coast. However, cyclone of 1999
seriously impacted Thatta and Badin districts of Sindh and affected 0.6
million people and caused loss of 202 lives. Cyclone Yemyin in 2007
had a much wider imprint affecting 26 districts of Balochistan - Sindh
and 2.5 million people, causing 400 fatalities. Before the occurrence of
Yemyin, cyclones were not taken as a serious threat or environmental
hazard hence not taken care of as other hazards like Floods. The
reason is quite obvious that since 1965 only 4 cyclone have hit the
coasts of Pakistan. Death toll and economic losses were quite less
compared to other natural hazards affecting Pakistan there fore most of
Cyclones went unnoticed. Some prominent cyclones of Pakistan’s
hazard history are:
15 Dec 1965 a tropical cyclone hit the coastal areas of
Karachi and Thatta which affected 10,000 people.
Cyclone of May 1999 Seriously impacted Sindh coast and
Districts of Thatta and Badin 202 died, 138719 Houses were
fully / partially damaged.
Cyclone Onil Oct 2004, hit coast of Sindh – Thatta and
Badin. Cyclone impacted with a reduced impact resulting in
heavy local precipitation only.
Yemyin (June 2007) impacted Sindh & Balochistan coastal
and adjoining regions 2.5 million people were severely
affected in7 districts of Balochistan and 2 of Sindh it took
400 lives.
 Objective
In this session we will talk about the cyclone hazard
vulnerable areas of Pakistan.
What is Vulnerability?
What is cyclone hazard?
Which areas are subject to the risk of Cyclones?
What are the physical and human characteristics of these
areas?
What make these areas vulnerable to cyclone hazards?
What are the area specific vulnerabilities?
Cyclone Vulnerability and Risk maps of Pakistan
 Basic Definitions
Vulnerability is a function of:
 Resistance, the ability to withstand change due to a hazard

 Resilience, the ability to return to the original state

following a hazard event

 Susceptibility, the current physical state, without taking

into account temporal changes 

 Vulnerability:
The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope
with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a
system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
(http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/Townsend/Glossary/GlossaryR.asp)
Vulnerability: The tendency for an entity to be damaged.
Resilience: The opposite of vulnerability and refers to the ability of an
entity to resist or recover from damage. Vulnerability and resilience
are two sides of the same coin. Something is vulnerable to the extent
that it is not resilient.
SOPAC (Pacific Islands Applied Geosciences Commission) http://www.sidsnet.org/docshare/other/20030910171306_Vulnerability_for_dummies.pdf

Vulnerability: The conditions determined by physical, social,

economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase
the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.
Resilience / resilient: The capacity of a system, community or
society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or
changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of
functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to
which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase
its capacity for learning from past disasters for better future
protection and to improve risk reduction measures.
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng
%20home.htm
Hazard: A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon
or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury,
property damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation.
Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a
community or a society causing widespread human, material,
economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the
affected community or society to cope using its own resources. 
Risk: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected
losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity
disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions
between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable
conditions. Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability - Capacity
 Cyclone as a Hazard
Cyclone is a physical event or phenomenon. It becomes
potentially damaging due to human activities like settling on
the coasts due to economic reasons or demographic
pressures.
A cyclone may cause:

 Loss of life or injury

 Property damage
Social and economic disruption
Environmental degradation.
 Cyclone as a Hazard
A natural phenomena becomes a hazard only when:

Human exposure to that phenomena exceeds a

particular Spatial limit.
Economic exposure to that phenomena exceeds a

particular Spatial limit.

Environment becomes instable due to human

induced environmental degradation.

 Cyclone as a Hazard

In Pakistan unplanned settlement on the low lying

coastal areas which fall on the potential cyclone
routes (Karachi), and deforestation of the Mangrove
areas in the Indus Delta (Districts of Thatta & Badin)
has turned the cyclones in to a hazard, compared to
that Balochistan coast being less populated and having
a unique physical set up is least vulnerable to the
cyclones.
 Configuration of Pakistan Coast

www.googleearth.com
Length of Pakistani coast 981 km
Length of Balochistan coast 733 km
Length of Sindh coast 248 km
Balochistan coast Active
Sindh coast Passive
Balochistan coast is divided in to:
Makran Coast 473 km
Lasbela Coast 260 km
Sindh coast is divided in to :
Karachi Coast 48 km
Lower Sindh or Indus Delta Coast 200 km
 Characteristic of Pakistan Coast
Climatic Characteristics
Climatically Pakistani coast can be divided in to:
Western (Makran Coast)

Central (Lasbela Coast)

Eastern (Lower Sindh or Indus Delta Coast)

Western Central Eastern

7.7”(Karachi) to
Rainfall 6” 7”
10”(Badin)
Average Temperature 70oF 106oF 82o to 89o F
Vegetation on the Pakistani Coasts

 Vegetation cover follows the

precipitation trends
 Western Makran Coast
 Mainly devoid of vegetation

 Thorny Bushes & desert type

vegetation
 Central Lasbela & Karachi Coast
 Short trees, bushes and scrub

 Eastern Indus Delta Coast

 Mangrove Forest and certain

other plantation vegetation

 Irrigated Rice cultivation going

away from the coast

 Characteristic of Pakistan Coast
Physical Characteristic
Physically Pakistani coast is divided in to four parts
Makran Coast
 Sandy Beaches, Coastal Hills, Narrow Continental Shelf (15–45 km)
Lasbela Coast
 Sandy Beaches, Coastal Hills, Narrow Continental Shelf (15–45 km)
Karachi Coast
 Narrow Sandy beaches, Coastal Cliffs, Marine Terraces, Salt
Evaporation Ponds, Costal caves, Spits, Broad Continental Shelf
(150-200 km)
Indus Delta Coast
 TidalChannels or Creeks, Mud Flats, Remains of Mangrove
Forests, Remains submerged up to 6.5 km from the shoreline
during High Tides, Broad Continental Shelf (150-200 km)
 Characteristic of Pakistan Coast
Demographic Characteristic
The human or demographic dimensions of Pakistani
coastal areas are almost monotonous with the only
exception of Karachi, Pakistani Coasts are:
Sparsely populated
 Population density along the Balochistan Coast is 3 persons / sq.
mile (general) and 130 persons / sq. mile (urban settlements)
 Population Density Karachi greater then 1554persons / sq. mile

 Population density Indus delta Coast 3 persons / sq. mile

Only a few major settlement including the

defense installations
 Jiwani, Gawader, Pasni, Ormara, Sonmiani, Karachi, Keti
Bandr, Chohar Jamali, Jati
 Factors contributing to vulnerability
Human settlements located in exposed, low lying coastal areas
will be vulnerable to the direct effects of the cyclone such as
wind, rain and storm surges.
Settlements in adjacent areas will be vulnerable to floods and
mudslides or landslides from the resultant heavy rains.
The death rate is higher where communications systems are poor
and warning systems are inadequate.
Communities without prior experience in a cyclone or without an
evacuation plan may be more vulnerable.
The quality of structures will determine resistance to the effects
of the cyclone.
Those most vulnerable are lightweight structures with wood
frames, older buildings with weakened walls, and houses made
of unreinforced concrete block.
Infrastructural elements particularly at risk are telephone and
telegraph poles, fishing boats and other maritime industries.
Hospitals may be damaged reducing access to health care and
essential drugs.
 Cyclone Hazard Vulnerable Areas of
Pakistan

NIO Cyclone Tracks 1980-2005 NIO Cyclone Track 1999 NIO Cyclone Track 2007

NIO Cyclone Tracks 1948 NIO Cyclone Track 1999 NIO Cyclone Track 2007
To assess the vulnerability first of all historical data is
reviewed, according to the cyclone track records only 4
cyclones have directly hit the Pakistani coasts, three of
these hit the lower Sindh coast and one Balochistan coast.
By looking in to the definition and factors contributing
to the vulnerability of any area it becomes quite obvious
that Coasts of Pakistan are quite vulnerable to cyclone
hazard, especially the Karachi and lower Sindh Coasts.
Coastal areas of Badin, Thatta, Lasbela and Kech
Makran are economically, socially and structurally more
vulnerable compared to Karachi Coast.
Up to the mark critical facilities are available only in
Karachi rest of the coastal area is almost devoid of these
facilities.