CLIMATE CHANGE AND

CHALLENGES TO FOOD SECURITY IN

THE RED RIVER DELTA OF VIETNAM

Tuyen Phuong Nghiem

Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (CRES)
Vietnam National University at Hanoi

The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of
the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the
source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion,
or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.
The Red River Delta (RRD)

Social settings
Pop.: 21% of Vietnam pop. (2007)
Density: 1,238,000 /km2 (2007)
Produces 18% of Vietnam’s rice
Poverty: 9%

Natural settings
Low-lying topography (2/3 at 3m below)
Dense system of rivers

Climate change in RRD (MONRE

scenarios)
- Average annual temp.: increase - 1oC
- Average annual rainfall: increase 3.5%
- Severe storms, floods, inundations
- Serious damage: 500 million USD for a
flood in 2008

Source: Oxfam 20
 Frequency of Flood Events
in the RRD (1900-2000)
Frequency of severely damaging floods in the Red river delta

10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Y1910 Y1920 Y1930 Y1940 Y1950 Y1960 Y1970 Y1980 Y1990 Y2000

Source: Khanh, Tran and Le, Nguyen, 2001

 Flooding
Patterns
in
the Red
River
Delta
2001-2008

Source: Dartmouth
College Flood
Observatory, 2009
 Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Agro-ecological Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Zone
North West Crop yields decline between 15% and 30% under dry scenario; less yields decline is found for wet scenario. Rice yields may slightly
increase under wet scenario and carbon fertilization. Maize yield declines between 14% and 20% under wet scenario, and between
6% and 18% under wet scenario.

North East Crop yields decline between 15% and 42% under dry scenario; yields decrease less under wet scenario.

Red River Delta Yield decline between 9% and 21% under dry scenario; yields decline
between 11% and 34% under wet scenario. Rice yield declines between
10% and 25% under dry scenario, but 13% and 27% under wet scenario.
North Central Coast Yields decline between 7% and 27% under dry scenario; yields decline between 12% and 40% under wet scenario (except vegetables).

South Central Coast Yields decline between 5% and 31% under dry scenario; yields decline between 2% and 19% under wet scenario. C4 crops, maize and
sugarcane, have slightly increased yields by 2030 under the wet scenario.

Central Highland Coffee yield declines by around 40% under both dry and wet scenarios. Maize yield declines between 21% and 30% under dry scenario
and 14% to 25% under wet scenario.

South East Rice yield increase, especially with carbon fertilization (mostly due to projected potential yield increase of winter-spring rice). Cassava
yield decreases less than 5% under dry scenario, without carbon fertilization, and increase with carbon fertilization; cassava yield
decrease between 10% and 20% under wet scenario. Coffee yield declines by less than 5% under dry scenario but about 20%
under wet scenario.

Mekong River Delta Rice yield declines less than 10% under dry scenario, and may slightly increase with carbon fertilization; less rice yield reduction is
found for wet scenario. Sugarcane yield declines less than 12% under dry scenario, and less than 5% under wet scenario.
Sugarcane yield increase by about 5% under wet scenario, with carbon fertilization.

Source: World Bank, 2008

 Change of Income after the Floods
CHUONG MY (32 mil. VND/yr)
Source of income Baseline income After climate event
(2007) % HH with % HH with % HH with
Decrease Same Increase
Agriculture 5,362,145 48% 55% >1%
Livestock 13,547,181 99% 0.01% >1%
Aquaculture 2,281,756 67% 33% 0%
Salary and wage labor 11,290,134 36% 64% >1%
KIEN XUONG (20 mil. VND/yr)
Source of income Baseline income After
(in 2002) Decrease Same Increase
Agriculture 4,770,247 96% 4% 0%
Livestock 6,573,933 52% 47% >1%
Aquaculture 1,761,166 42% 58% 0%
Salary and wage labor 6,690,080 18% 80% 2%
 Aggravation of Poverty
Crop damage Property damage Livestock damage
Time to recover Relative Livestock Relative Cropping
(absolute value in (Absolute value in (Absolute value in
(days) damage (% change) damage (% change)
VND) VND) VND)

1,666,495 1,638,387 868,186

Poor (n=100) 367 -65% -70.5%
($92 US) ($91 US) ($48 US)

1,449,141 281,739 1,429,326

Middle (n=100) 298 -31% -37%
($81 US) ($15 US) ($79 US)

3,572,817 2,430,430 ($135 5,352,248

Rich (n=100) 458 -35% -33%
($198 US) US) ($297 US)

Significance * (p=.034) (p=.120) **(p=.000) (p=.312) ** (p=0.001)

 Increasing Risks to Food Security
Average monthly income* Average land holdings (sq.m)
(USD)
Agriculture % of Other % of Residential % of total Agricultural % of total
-dependent total income total area land area land
income income income
16,872,000 76% 5,374,550 24% 435 2% 17,762 98%
VND (336USD)
(1,055USD)

Food price: e.g. rice and vegetables

increase highly and unstable during & after the floods
rice price increase from 4,500 to 5,500 VND/ kg (2007)
 increase in cost of inputs and labor
 speculation in rice  forcing farmers to sell rice early
(before harvest) for lower price
 “Before_During_After” Adaptation
Activities
Type Of Structural Behavior Financial Technical
Adaptation
Households  Building house  Saving and store  Invest in  Collect poles
with concrete, supplies of rice, small and sacks for
Community not wood or kerosene, and salt boats to dike support
Commune LGUs thatch  identify a place to move HH  Invest in
District LGUs  Covering store food and goods small boats
Province LGUs groundwater clothing so that it to move HH
wells can stay dry goods
 Building two  put straw in house  Make cages
storied house or eaves to hold HH from
make the garret goods bamboo for
(flat roof area)  use ropes to tie up chicken and
to keep rice and windows, and the ducks.
food stuff dry roof of the house
 Harvest crops (when the house
early if ready was made of
straw)
 use bamboo poles
to make support
 Diversifying livelihood
Changing crop patterns
• Adding winter crops (potato, corn, vegetables)  the most important
(cash) income source
• Adding crops to rice: vegetables along the river
• Changing production patterns: rice  aquaculture (fish, shrimps, ducks)
• Loans and labor exchange from friends, relatives, people’s credit fund

Engaging in Non-farm activities

• Engaged in local non-farm activities (craft activities, making bricks,
construction work…)  limited short term working opportunities
• Engaged in low-skilled activities at local industrial clusters
• Seasonal migration to cities (Hanoi, Hochiminh City, Central Highlands)
– 60% of men at 20-55 years old (in a studied commune)
• Permanent move for jobs in big cities
Changing crop pattern: vegetable fields along the river
Change from rice to aquaculture
 Making living conditions more
secured

Typical village built environment in Red River Delta

Change in
housing
styles

Semi-permanent (30-46%)

Permanent (50-70%)
A safe storage
area in
the roof
of a
house in
case of
flooding
Enhancing Access to Safe Facilities

Access to Safe place Chuong My Kien Xuong

Frequenc Percentage Frequency Percentage

y
Government buildings 12 10% 31 40%
(Commune
offices, schools, clinic center
Religious buildings (pagoda, 4 4% 0 0%
church, temple, etc.)
Neighbor’s house 30 26% 12 16%
Other (relatives, leave village, 68 60% 34 44%
dike, etc)
Total who have access to shelter 114 100% 87 100%
 Addressing Risk Forecasts
Risk assessment
• Risk assessment is not done at any level
• After the events, a committee is established to evaluate damaged
and send the damage report to the district for compensation from
the district

Early warning system

• Each province has a hydro-meteorology station to record local
temperature and water.
• The local records are references for MARD to generate weather
forecast and early warning.
• Weather forecast and early warning is distributed in written
documents through vertical systems of local institutions before
flooding and typhoon season.
• Plans and actions are made in accordance to the warning.

Use of early warning by households

• Source of early warning: TV, radio, newspaper, relatives and
neighbors
• 1/3 HH received early warning 1-3 hours & up to 8 days before the
event
 Challenges / Needs
• Why did/did not take actions?
– Poor (Poverty)
– Did not think it would be so serious (Early Warning System)
– Could not do anything about it (Fatalism)
– Government should do something about it (Policy)
• Household needs
– Financial support for building concrete houses, invest in production
– Good infrastructure facilities (houses, roads, dyke system, place to
store rice, livestock during floods)
– Insurance for production
– Loans for “emergency” and “recovery”
– Information & skills
 Conclusions
• Climate change is contributing to the downward spiral of
poverty and threatening food security in the RRD.

– Rural communities dependent on agriculture in the

RRD is facing an immediate risk of increased crop
failure and loss of livestock.

– Such loss of assets and lack of adequate insurance

coverage happen to both rich and poor households,
threatening food security in the local area

• Longer term adaptation changes include some changes in

housing styles (concrete, 2 story houses); diversification of
farm incomes; to change crops and varieties grown; to adjust
crop calendars for seasons grown.
 Conclusions
• Better-off households with diverse sources of income
and secured food situation have longer term adaptation
while poor households focus on on-farm coping actions.

• Adaptation activities related to food security are limited

due to constraints such as conflicts with local interests
(e.g. can’t change from rice to aquaculture due to land
use planned for rice growing only).

• Households rely on themselves and informal social

network to take autonomous adaptation actions.
 Conclusions
• Community- and national-level measures play a very limited role,
aiming at disaster preparedness for one-off events.

• The local authorities have been primarily focused on building response

capacity: i.e. having yearly evacuation plans, training people in disaster
drills, providing weather data to local authorities, etc.

• No new funding for climate adaptation  small budget depending on

forecasted events

• There are limited adaptation responses at either the household or the

government level that either address the drivers of overall vulnerability
or ones that directly confront climate change processes. These are
clearly areas that need more attention into the future.
END