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r Pakistan today is caught up in an acute Energy Crisis which has its roots in five
(5) distinct causes, namely;

½ !( )*+,-(+.
+-, $

(½,è
emand orecasting and absence
of central è focused entity responsible for the Energy ector

½½ /Ã(
( +.
+-, ½ with heavy reliance on gas (47.5%) and il
(30.5%) (72% imported)

½½½  ½
½
(½*0(½.½,+ -+ - +of har Coal and ydel
potential

½0 !( )*+**+ ½0+1-2+ -  -½,, planning and implementation of

indentified and viable projects

0 (.+3 (+$-½/(- 
+-,  - + or access to, or local availability 

2
development
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$%'



r As a consequence the energy shortages have snowballed with major supply chain
and infrastructure gaps, namely;

½ 4+

+ -½ $5+-+ -6 has been in static non-growth mode from 2003-
2008, and the peak supply-demand gap has grown to about 3,500 - 4,000 
from about 1,000  in 2006. (ig.
(a),
(b) )
½½ 4+(+ -6the demand - supply gap that emerged in 2007 has grown
to about 800 cfd in 2009 due to stalled import projects (ashal,
P
, PGP)
and local fields not developed  put in production for 5 years ( 500 cfd)
(ig.

)
½½½ (.+3 (+
+-, *-(-  -+6supply to end customers both for electric
power as well as fuel oil for Power Plants has been constrained
½0 4- 11
*(7½
$5+-$
(6the crisis has been aggravated due
to gas supply shortfall and reduced oil supply due to non-payment to Cs 3
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X $%'$

#
r Pakistan͛s Primary Energy ix is essentially imbalanced even on a worldwide
comparative basis, with dependence on gas at 47.5%, oil at 30.5% (72%
imported) (ig. V )
r he 2005 Energy Plan, projected a continuing dependence of about 48% on
Natural Gas in the 2030 scenario, based on mega imports thru ransnational
Pipelines (6.5 bcfd) and LNG (1.5 bcfd) (ig. V
)
r ith the continuing delay in the planned NPs and LNG import projects
(ashal, PGP, Engro etc) the primary energy gap is increasing at an alarming rate
r By 2015 the natural gas supply-demand gap after LNG imports of 1.0 bcfd (if
implemented) will increase to 1.7 bcfd, and is unlikely to be covered as
P
cannot
be completed in this time frame
r 4+-+ ½
+(-
( ++½(
++.  1
( ( -+0½+. $-½/(-
+-, ½ along
with a revised electricity generation plan by source in the 2010 ʹ 2030 scenario

4
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X $%'$


 

r ith rising cost of crude oil from $ 60 in 2005 to $ 147 in 2008, Pakistan͛s oil
based thermal generation (32%) became unsustainable and has resulted in a
massive Energy ector debt ( $ 3.6 billion)
r Coal utilization is about 9% in the Energy ix, and only 0.1% for Power
Generation vs. 72% in China, 56% in
ndia and more than 50% in the UA
(ig. V

)
r New power generation has remained static for about o years (ig. V

)
r A more rational and ustainable Energy ix must be planned for the 2010-
2030 scenario.
r ignificant increase in hydel power generation and optimum use of coal thru
gasification and clean coal technologies
r As a strategic priority Nuclear Electric Energy has to be increased to about ü
and Renewable to about
in the 2030 scenario
5
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ü&!!9
$()½('4(-(
$+½(

r orlds ingle largest contiguous Coal field extending over 10,000 q Ks (ig-

 )
r Reserves of 175 ʹ 200 billions tons exceed oil equivalent reserves of audi
Arabia,
raq,
ran, with a value of several trillion U$ (igure- )
r Phased development can lead to 400 ʹ 600 mt year coal mining in 20 years
r All of Pakistan͛s energy requirements (Electric, Power, Gas,
iesel) can be met
in 2020 ʹ 2030 scenario
r he most recent A
B report (ay 2007) states ͞4(-
½,½+  + /½+. ½ (
+(Ã
+ * +
- (-Ã -+ - +8 and ͞(

½3 ½.! ½ ½.+-+. (
+-½  ½
½
(½ 1½8
r
n addition to Electric Power, NG, Chemicals, ertilizer, etc can be produced
for self consumption and surplus can be exported (igure-
)
r Contribution to G
P in plants, products, services, employment, etc, would be
in the range of $200b-$300b which exceeds Pakistan͛s current G
P of $ 170 b
r har Coal is God͛s Gift of ͞Black Gold͟ to the People of Pakistan and will
ensure the Nation͛s Energy è Economic uture 6
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ü&!!9
$-. ½$
(Ã(+.4(-(
(½*½ (½
r Coal production costs have to be in the range of $20 - $25 tons, which equates to a
crude oil cost of about $50 per barrel in order to achieve economical levels
r o achieve cost benchmark mine capacity of 50 mtonsyear is required in three
phases of (1) 15 mtonsyr (2) 30 mtonsyr and (3) 50 mtonsyr
r ollowing co-production plants will need to be set-up in the three phases to match
with coal production over 3-5 years;
§ $4(+ 
GCC 500 mw (3 mtonsyr) and NG 250 mmcfd (12 mtonsyr). otal 15 mtyr
§ $4(+ 
GCC 500 mw (3 mtonsyr) and 
30,000 barrelsday (12 mtonsyr). otal 30 mtyr
§ $4(+
 NG 250 mmcfd (12 mtonsyr) and 
20,000 barrelsday (8 mtonsyr). otal 50 mtyr
r
n subsequent phases, chemical and fertilizer plants would be set-up as part of a ega
Petro-Chemical Complex which would be supported by additional coal mining
r Power transmission line of 500 KV will be planned and constructed for 1000 mw
power dispersal to N
C Network
r A 36͟-42͟ i-Pressure Gas ransmission Pipeline will be planned and constructed to
connect to the GC Network at yderabad  amshoro
7
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ü &
!$




r he country has an estimated ydro Resources Potential of about 45,000

 , currently whereas only 6,500  have been installed with 11% share in
the Energy ix.
r
t is proposed in the long term scenario to increase share of ydro in Primary
Energy from 6,500  (11%) at present to about 32,100  (20%) by 2030
(30% share in Power Generation)
r his will entail set up of 8,000  smallmedium hydro units on
riverscanals, run of the river plants and four large hydro multipurpose
reservoirsdams with capacity of about 17,600  upto 2030
r he four large ydro
ams are, (i) Kalabagh ʹ 3,800  , (ii) Bhasha ʹ 4,600
 , (iii) Bunji ʹ 5,400  , (iv)
asu ʹ 3,800 
r
t is necessary to maintain an optimal ydrohermal ix, in base load
operations to cater for reduction in output during low hydel periods.

8
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o
$!

& 


r An essential step towards preparation and implementation of a National Energy Plan is
the set-up of a statutory body, ͞4+ (½(

+-,  4-½ (NEA)͟
r he NEA would be an independent and focal entity with a Chairman and 12 Board
members, (6 private sector professionals and 6 energy sector experts, 
s etc from
the Public ectorGP)
r he NEA would be responsible for, and have the authority to undertake strategic
planning in the Energy ector and prepare a comprehensive ENERGY PL
CY.
r he NEA would prepare an integrated and Comprehensive (½(

+-, $
( (NEP)
for the hort, edium and Long erm based on robust projections on a scientific basis.
r he NEA would also identify, plan and pursue implementation of Energy ector

nfrastructure augmentationexpansion by the Cs, PEPC, GC, NGPL etc.
r he NEA would coordinate with the sectoral organizations, public companies
Cs, EèP Companies,
PPs etc and relevant inistries etc for the NEP
implementation
r he NEA will also act as a monitoring authority for all Energy ector projects, and
ensure compliance to project road-maps and milestones 9
 |

igure-V

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PR
ARY ENERGY UPPLY BY URCE ELECR
C
Y GENERA
N BY URCE
2007-2008 2007-2008
& .- 
+(- /1-+.

+(- 


+ -½ ½ 

+ -½ ½ 

+ -½ ½ 
/1-+.
X
(
   

½

ü ½


& .+

!$o

(

(
X

(Xoü

(
$5+-++-(½
4½( o

ndia 56%
UA 51% 10
 |

igure- 

|

|
 


PR
ARY ENERGY 
 (a)
Current 2008 2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan
& .- 
+- /1-+.


+ -½ ½ 

+ -½ ½ 

+ -½ ½ 
Nuclear Renewable
  
3% 1%


 ydel il
½

ü 18%
14%
Coal
15%
:;ü
Gas
49%

+0½+.$
(

Nuclear Renewable
Electricity 2%
3%
il
10%
ydel
20%

Gas
35%
Coal
30%

11
 |

igure- 

|

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ELECR
C
Y GENERA
N BY URCE (b)
Current 2008 2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan


+(-" Nuclear Renewable
/1-
X 4% 4%
il
7%
& .+
 ½

 ydel
25%

Gas
(
X
 45%
Coal
15%

(
 +0½+.$
(

il
12%
Nuclear Renewable
5% 3%

Gas
ydel
25%
30%

Coal
25%

12