Y
 


Y

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‡ Marissa Dalton

‡ Nicola Namdeo

‡ Sabina Savory

‡ Khemchan Persaud
Õ

  


‡ Introduction

‡ The Theory

‡ Criticisms

‡ Concluding Remarks
 



In 1798 Thomas R. Malthus, a British economist

and demographer postulated a mathematical
model of population growth. In his theory of
Population he highlighted the potential dangers
of overpopulation.
 



If the human population was allowed à


 à 
, then the number of people
would increase at a more rapid rate than the
food supply. Subsequently, the human
population would reach a point where à 
    



à à  à
à
Y Y 

 Y Y 

Malthus's model is an example of a model with
one 6

 ëpopulation) and one à
(the population growth rate). Thus, the
Malthusian model can be expressed
mathematically as:
ë
ë
ë 

^here: 
 represents the population size during

time period
  denotes the population growth
rate per unit of time.
 Y Y 


Õor example, if a population of 100 individuals

increased to a population 135 individuals over
the course of, say, five years, therefore: X(i)=100
r= 35% every 5 years.
 Y Y 

Malthus's model states that any population will grow regardless of
how many individuals currently exist in the population. This is as a
result of several underlying factors:

‡ In a situation of fixed resources, population growth directly affects

consumption;

‡ ^ith capital as a fixed variable, the production per worker falls with
the addition of each new worker²this is the classical law of
diminishing returns;

‡ An increasing population implies a population with a large base of

children who are both consumers and non-producers²thus, less
production per capita; and

‡ At a fixed income, population growth will shift investment from

savings and human-capital development to subsistence.
Y   

Y 
Y   

Y 
Y   

Y 
Aggregate Income
Total Population


Aggregate income> total population= per capita income


Aggregate income< total population= per capita income
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Y 
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The Malthusian population trap is basically
criticized on two (2) major grounds:

1. The model ignores the enormous impact of

technological progress offsetting the growth-
inhibiting forces to rapid population increases.
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2. The second area of criticism is based on the
assumption that the national rates of
population increase have a direct positive
relationship with the level of national per capita
income.
 Ê   
 

Summarized, Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian
theories were rejected on the following grounds:
1. The role and impact of technological progress
is not adequately taken into account.
2. They are based on a hypothesis about a macro
relationship between population growth levels
and per capital income.
3. The focus on the wrong variable, per capita
income, as the principal determinant of
population growth rates.
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