Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Control with
EVA and Burn Graphs
Guy Davis
Kendra Hamilton
Ed Dantsiguer
Agenda
Origins of EVA
EVA Explained
EVA Examples
Shortcomings of EVA
Agile side of EVA
Burn Graphs
Tools
Discussion
Overview of EVA
“The essence of [Earned Value Management
Systems] is that some level of detail
appropriate for the degree of technical,
schedule, and cost risk or uncertainty
associated with the program, a target value
….is established.” Paul Solomon 2002.
History of EVA
PERT/Cost (1963)
DoD Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria
(C/SCSC) (1967).
Government Performance and Results Act (1993),
Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act, Title V (1994),
Clinger-Cohen Act (1996)
EIA-748-1998 “Earned Value Management System”
Office of Management and Budget (Circular A-11, Part
7) (2003)
Motivation for EVA
path plan)
Includes all activities that have to
Earned
be performed, their durations,
Value costs and relative contributions to
Schedule Technical the overall deliverable
Performance
EVA Explained 2/3
EVA Explained 3/3
EVA is used to determine current project
performance and estimate/forecast future
project performance
Based on 3 data points:
Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP)
Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP)
Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS)
Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
Planned (budgeted/estimated) cost of work
that has been completed until this point
Answers: “How much was performed work
supposed to cost?”
Based on features/activities completed and
the budgeted amount for these
features/activities in the original project plan
Actual Cost of Work Performed
Actual cost of work that has been completed
until this point
Answers: “What was the actual cost of work
actually performed?”
Based on features/activities completed and
cost of these features/activities in real life
Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled
Planned (budgeted/estimated) cost of work that was
supposed to be completed
Answers: “How much work should have been done
and how much was it meant to cost?”
Based on features/activities planned/scheduled and
the budgeted amount for these features/activities in the
original project plan
Budget at Completion (BAC) is the total funds allocated
(budgeted) for this project to complete
Derived Metrics
Schedule Variance (SV)
SV = BCWP – BCWS
Compares what is done with what was supposed to be
done
SV < 0 project is behind schedule
Cost Variance (CV)
CV = BCWP – ACWP
Compares actual project cost with budgeted project
costs
CV < 0 project is over budget
Schedule/Cost Performance Index
Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
SPI = BCWP/BCWS
SPI < 1 project is behind schedule
Cost Performance Index (CPI)
CPI = BCWP/ACWP
CPI < 1 project is over budget
Cost Schedule Index (CSI)
CSI = CPI * SPI
CSI < 1 project is not tracking to plan
The further away CSI is from 1, the less likely is
successful project recovery
Using EVA Metrics in Project
Control 1/2
Each individual EVA metric is not greatly
useful on its own
Metrics need to be considered as a group
Ex: Just because a project has a CSI of 1
does not imply that the project is doing well – it
may be well ahead of schedule while also
being well ahead of its budget
Using EVA Metrics in Project
Control 2/2
ACWP metric can be used to project future activity
costs/durations
This is called Estimate To Completion (ETC)
The end of the projected ETC curve is
the Estimate At Completion (EAC)
estimated schedule and cost required to complete the
project based on current productivity and spending
Comparison between EAC and BAC shows is the
project is likely to be on schedule and/or on budget
Variance at Completion (VAC) schedule difference
between BAC and EAC
Recommended Performance
Metric Values
Performance
Metric Green Yellow Red
SPI 0.95 and 0.90 and Less than
greater greater 0.90
CPI 0.95 and 0.90 and Less than
greater greater 0.90
VAC 0.05 and 0.10 and Greater than
lesser lesser 0.10
Per the “U.S. Marine Corps Acquisition Procedures Handbook,” June 1997
EVA Task Types
Discrete Effort
Activities with start and end time that result in
deliverables
Apportioned Effort
Effort required to support discrete effort tasks (Ex:
inspections, quality control)
Proportional to the type/size of discrete effort tasks that
they support
Level of Effort
Overhead activities with no concrete deliverables (Ex:
management and administrative activities)
Crediting Earned Value
Discrete Effort
Credited upon completion with actual cost and duration
tracked
Apportioned Effort
Credited upon completion of related discrete effort
tasks
Level of Effort
Credited according to plan (regardless of actual cost
and duration)
Crediting Earned Value Methods
Milestone Events
Weighted Milestone Gates
Percentage Complete
Fixed Formula
Level of Effort
Percentage Complete and Milestone Gates
EVA Example 1/2
Planned/Scheduled Data:
Duration of 10 months
Includes 10 features with multiple tasks
Budget of $100 million
Actual After 6 Weeks:
55% of the work has been completed
$85 million has been spent
EVA Example 2/2
Earn ed V alu e A n alysis
180
VAC
160
D ate of progress EAC
140 m easurem ent
Cost
C um ulative Spending
120 Overrun
BCW S
100 BCW P
BAC ACW P
80 E TC
C ost V ariance
Schedule variance
60
40
Tim e variance
20
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Tim e, W orking W eeks
Success Factors for EVA
Quality of the baseline; need to include all
details.
Take action early based on performance
indicators.
“I hate everything that merely instructs me without
augmenting or directly invigorating my activity”
Goethe
Shortcomings of EVA
Based on past performance; assumes constant rate of
spend and value creation
Assumes a direct relationship between time and cost.
Value measured in technical components, not
expected business value.
Project must be fully defined at outset; the devil is in
the details.
Time required for measuring project’s progress
EVA Tools
Excel
Welcom “Cobra” http://www.welcom.com/
Schedulemaker http://www.schedulemaker.com
Planisware “OPX2” http://www.planisware.com/
RiskTrak http://www.risktrak.com/index.htm
Winsight http://www.cs-solutions.com/
Primavera Systems http://www.primavera.com/
EVA compared to Agile
Full project view vs. Iterative view
Tasks fully defined vs. Changing requirements
Attempts to forecast future vs. Determination
of next iteration
EVA is not suitable for truly “Agile” projects
EVA in an Agile/Iterative Project
Approach 1:
Stories = BCWS
Tasks = BCWS in more detail
Assignments = ACWP
Velocity = BCWP
Testable requirements = 0% or 100% BCWP
EVA in an Agile/Iterative Project
Approach 2:
Do EVA on individual iterations
Approach 3:
Generate micro estimations for current iteration
and macro estimations for future iterations
Burn Graphs
Origins of Burn Graphs
Cumulative flow diagrams from lean production
Goal: to provide a succinct view of progress.
Allows project sponsors to steer the project.
Allows scrum master report visually to
stakeholders.
Allows the team to gain experience estimating
by getting direct feedback. (Empowering)
Burn-Down Graphs