Decision

Decision Support
Support Systems
Systems

an
an introduction
introduction to
to DSS
DSS with
with
environmental
environmental application
application
examples
examples

1
© K.Fedra 2000
What
What is
is aa DSS
DSS ??
•• Attempts
Attempts at
at definition
definition
•• Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
•• AA general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture
•• Decision
Decision Support
Support Paradigms
Paradigms
•• Application
Application examples
examples

2
© K.Fedra 2000
DSS
DSS Definition
Definition

A
A DSS
DSS is
is aa computer
computer based
based
problem
problem solving
solving system
system that
that
assists
assists choice
choice between
between
alternatives
alternatives inin complex
complex and
and
controversial
controversial domains.
domains.

3
© K.Fedra 2000
DSS
DSS Definition
Definition
A
A DSS
DSS provides
provides
• structured
structured presentation
presentation
• problem
problem context,
context,
• and
and tools
tools for
for the
the
– design,
– evaluation,
– selection
of
of alternatives
alternatives
4
© K.Fedra 2000
What
What is
is aa DSS
DSS ??

• Attempts
Attempts at
at definition
definition
• Decision making processes
• A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture
• Decision
Decision Support
Support Paradigms
Paradigms
• Application
Application examples
examples

5
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

Handbook
Handbook of
of OR (B.E.Gillet,
(B.E.Gillet, 1976):
1976):
• Formulation
Formulation of of the
the problem
problem
• Construction
Construction of of aa mathematical
mathematical model
model
• Derive
Derive solution
solution from
from model
model
• Testing
Testing model
model and
and solution
solution
• Establish
Establish control
control over
over the
the solution
solution
• Put
Put itit to
to work
work (implementation)
(implementation)

6
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

Heuristics
Heuristics (How
(How to
to solve
solve it,
it, G.Polya)
G.Polya)
• understand
understand thethe problem
problem
• make
make aa plan
plan (algorithm)
(algorithm)
• implement
implement step
step byby step
• check
check each
each step
step
• check
check the
the solution
solution (looking
(looking back)
back)
7
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

(in
(in the
the real world) are
real world) are characterized
characterized by:
• multiple
multiple actors
actors
• conflicting
conflicting objectives
objectives
• multiple
multiple criteria
criteria
• plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
• hidden
hidden agenda
agenda
8
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

are
are characterized
characterized by:
by:
• multiple
multiple actors
actors
• conflicting
conflicting objectives
objectives
• multiple
multiple criteria
criteria
• plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
• hidden
hidden agenda
agenda
9
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
multiple
multiple actors:
actors:
• researchers and analysts
• planners and managers
• policy and decision makers
• general public:
• consumers (market)
• concerned citizen (voters)
10
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

are
are characterized
characterized by:
by:
• multiple
multiple actors
actors
• conflicting
conflicting objectives
objectives
• multiple
multiple criteria
criteria
• plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
• hidden
hidden agenda
agenda
11
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
conflicting objectives:
• maximize economic benefits
• minimize environmental costs
• maximize environmental benefits
• minimize economic costs
• maintain equity:
• between social groups
• between regions and countries
• between generations
12
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

are
are characterized
characterized by:
by:
• multiple
multiple actors
actors
• conflicting
conflicting objectives
objectives
• multiple
multiple criteria
criteria
• plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
• hidden
hidden agenda
agenda
13
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
multiple criteria:
• economic criteria (costs)
• environmental criteria
• standards (measurements)
• perceptions (believes, fears)
• political criteria (equity)
• regulatory criteria (constraints)
• technological criteria (constraints)
14
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

are
are characterized
characterized by:by:
•• multiple
multiple actors
actors
•• conflicting
conflicting objectives
objectives
•• multiple
multiple criteria
criteria
•• plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
•• hidden
hidden agenda
agenda
15
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
rational
rational: relating
relating to, based on,
agreeable
agreeable to to reason
reason..
reason:
reason: thethe power
power ofof inferring,
inferring,
comprehending,
comprehending, or or thinking
thinking in
in an
an
orderly,
orderly, rational
rational way.
way.

16
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
rational
rational:: L.
L. ratio
ratio (reor,
(reor, reri,
reri, ratus)
ratus)
computation,
computation, advantage,
advantage, interest,
interest,
behavior,
behavior, procedure,
procedure, ways
ways andand means,
means,
motivation,
motivation, argument,
argument, proof,
proof, opinion,
opinion,
(scientific)
(scientific) theory.
theory.

17
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
reaching
reaching different
different (contradictory)
(contradictory)
conclusions
conclusions from
from the
the same
same set
set of
of
premises
premises in in an
an internally
internally consistent
consistent
logical
logical way.
way.

18
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes

are
are characterized
characterized by:
by:
• multiple
multiple actors
actors
• conflicting
conflicting objectives
objectives
• multiple
multiple criteria
criteria
• plural
plural rationalities
rationalities
• hidden
hidden agenda
agenda
19
© K.Fedra 2000
What
What is
is aa DSS
DSS ??

• Attempts
Attempts at
at definition
definition
• Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
• A general DSS architecture
• Decision
Decision Support
Support Paradigms
Paradigms
• Application
Application examples
examples

20
© K.Fedra 2000
A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture

• Information resources
• The analytical engine
• The user interface

21
© K.Fedra 2000
A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture

data acquisition layer

DBMS analytical models

expert
GIS engine system

graphical user interface

22
© K.Fedra 2000
A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture

•• Information
Information resources
resources
•• The
The analytical
analytical engine
engine
•• The
The user
user interface
interface

23
© K.Fedra 2000
Information
Information Resources
Resources
• information on the status-quo
(monitoring)
• background for the
identification or design
of decision alternatives

24
© K.Fedra 2000
A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture

•• Information
Information resources
resources
•• The
The analytical
analytical engine
engine
•• The
The user
user interface
interface

25
© K.Fedra 2000
The
The analytical
analytical engine
engine

• Data
Data base
base management
management system
• Geographic
Geographic Information
Information System
• Simulation
Simulation and
and optimization
optimization models
models
• Expert
Expert systems
systems (rules)
• Decision
Decision Support
Support tools
tools proper
proper

26
© K.Fedra 2000
A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture

•• Information
Information resources
resources
•• The
The analytical
analytical engine
engine
•• The
The user
user interface
interface

27
© K.Fedra 2000
User
User interface
interface characteristics
characteristics

• Integration
• Interaction
• Visualization
• Intelligence
• Customization

28
© K.Fedra 2000
The
The User
User Interface
Interface
• provides
provides integration
integration of
of functions
functions
• interactive,
interactive, dialogue
dialogue oriented,
menu
menu driven
driven
• intuitive,
intuitive, graphical,
graphical, symbolic
symbolic
• consistent
consistent syntax
syntax and
and semantics,
semantics,
layout
layout and
and symbolism
• intelligent,
intelligent, context
context aware
aware
• customized
customized
29
© K.Fedra 2000
The
The User
User Interface
Interface
• provides
provides integration
integration of
of functions
functions
should
should provide
provide access
access to
to ALL
systems
systems functions
functions and
and resources.:
resources.:
seamless
seamless integration.
integration.
For
For the
the non-technical
non-technical user, the user
interface
interface IS
IS the system.
system.

30
© K.Fedra 2000
What
What is
is aa DSS
DSS ??
• Attempts
Attempts at
at definition
definition
• Decision
Decision making
making processes
processes
• A
A general
general DSS
DSS architecture
architecture
• Decision
Decision Support
Support Paradigms
Paradigms
• Application
Application examples
examples

31
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms

• Information
Information systems
systems
• Scenario
Scenario analysis
analysis
WHAT IF
• Rational
Rational maximization
maximization
HOW
HOW TO TO
• Multiple
Multiple attributes
attributes
32
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms

• Information
Information systems
systems
• Scenario
Scenario analysis
analysis
WHAT IF
• Rational
Rational maximization
maximization
HOW
HOW TO TO
• Multiple
Multiple attributes
attributes
33
© K.Fedra 2000
Information
Information systems
systems
• provide
provide problem context
• describe
describe available alternatives
• offer
offer aa common
common language
language and
and
shared
shared information
information basis
basis for
for the
the
participants
participants inin the
the decision
decision making
making
process
process

34
© K.Fedra 2000
Information
Information systems
systems
typical
typical application
application example:
example:
State-of-the-Environment
State-of-the-Environment Reporting
Reporting
decision process usually
usually diffuse,
diffuse,
multi-stage
multi-stage and
and lengthy
lengthy without
without
clear
clear technical
technical objectives.
objectives.
Public information,
information, awareness
awareness
building,
building, assists argumentation.
35
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms
• Information systems
systems
• Scenario analysis
WHAT IF
• Rational
Rational maximization
maximization
HOW
HOW TO TO
• Multiple attributes
attributes

36
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms
Scenario analysis
explores the reaction of a system to
changes
changes in
in the
the control
control or
or decision
decision
variables
variables on
on the performance
variables
variables (criteria)
(criteria) in
in terms
terms of
of the
the
objectives
objectives and constraints of thethe
decision
decision problem.
37
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms
Scenario
from L. scaenarium,
scaenarium, the
the stage
stage
an account or synopsis
synopsis of a projected
course
course of
of action
action or
or events;
events;
a set of assumptions.

38
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms
typical application example:
Environmental Impact
Assessment, that evaluates and
compares project alternatives.
Exploratory (policy) assessment,
design of alternatives.
39
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms
• Information
Information systems
systems
• Scenario
Scenario analysis
WHAT IF
• Rational
Rational maximization
maximization
HOW
HOW TO TO
• Multiple
Multiple attributes
attributes

40
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational maximization
maximization

The
The individual
individual as as rational
rational maximizer
maximizer
chooses
chooses aa commodity
commodity bundle bundle
cc == (c
(c11,...,c
,...,cii,...,c
,...,cnn ))
that
that maximizes
maximizes the the utility
utility
u(c)
u(c)

41
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational maximization
maximization

maximize
maximize the
the utility
utility u(c)
u(c)
– over
over different
different groups
groups (( ii ))
– over
over space
space (x,y,z)
(x,y,z)
– over
over time
time (( tt ))

42
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational maximization
maximization
The
The social
social welfare
welfare function
function
u*(c)
u*(c) == ff [u
[u11(c),u
(c),u22(c),...,u
(c),...,unn(c)
(c) ]]
as
as the
the sum
sum

iiuuii(c)
(c)
of
of individual
individual or or group
group
utility
utility functions
functions uuii(c)
(c)

43
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
Let
Let (x,p,y)
(x,p,y) denote
denote an
an option
option where
where
xx is
is obtained
obtained with
with probability
probability pp
yy is
is obtained
obtained with
with probability
probability 1-p
1-p

from:
from: A.Tversky,
A.Tversky, (1977)
(1977)
On
On the
the elicitation
elicitation of
of preferences.
preferences
preferences.
preferences

44
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice

Assume
Assume two
two alternatives
alternatives of
of
emergency
emergency management:
management:
AA11 50:50
50:50 to to lose
lose 100
100 lives
lives
AA22 certain
certain to
to lose
lose 45
45 lives
lives
You
You can
can execute
execute AA11 OR
OR AA22
What
What do
do you
you choose
choose ??
45
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
A
A11 50:50
50:50 to to lose
lose 100
100 lives
lives
(100,
(100, 1/2,
1/2, 0)
0)
A
A22 certain
certain to
to lose
lose 45
45 lives
lives
(45)
(45)
u(45)
u(45) << u(100,
u(100, 0.5)
0.5) ((u(0)
u(0) == 00))
uu**(45)
(45) << uu**(50)
(50)

46
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
Assume two alternatives of
health
health programs:
programs:
AA11 50:50
50:50 to to save
save 100
100 lives
lives
AA22 certain
certain to
to save
save 45
45 lives
lives
You
You can
can implement
implement A
A11 OR
OR A
A22
What do
do you
you choose
choose ??
47
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
A11 1:2 to save 100 lives
(100, 0.5,
0.5, 0)
0) u** == 50
50
A22 certain to
to save
save 45 45 lives
lives
( 45)
45) u** = 45

u(45) < u(100,

u(100, 0.5,
0.5, 0)
0)
u**(45) << u**(50)
48
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
Assume two alternatives of
health
health programs:
programs:
AA11 1:20 to save 100 lives
AA22 1:10 to save 45 lives
You
You can
can implement
implement A
A11 OR
OR A
A22
What do
do you
you choose
choose ??
49
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
A11 1:20 to save 100 lives
(100, 0.05,
0.05, 0)
0) uu** = 5
A22 1:10 to save 45 liveslives
( 45,
45, 0.10,
0.10, 0)
0) u** == 4.5
4.5
u(100,0.05)
u(100,0.05) >> u(45,0.10)
u(45,0.10)
uu**(5)
(5) > u**(4.5)
50
© K.Fedra 2000
Rational
Rational choice
choice
context
context dependence
dependence and
and bias:
bias:

certainty versus probability

gain versus
versus loss
loss
absolute versus relative change
change

51
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making
Minimax
Minimax and
and Bayesian
Bayesian approaches:
approaches:
Decision
Decision maker
maker has:
has:
• aa finite
finite number
number of
of possible
possible decision
decision alternatives
alternatives
• aa finite
finite number
number ofof outcomes
outcomes (state
(state of
of nature)
nature) which
which
may
may have
have aa known
known probability
probability of
of outcome
outcome
• aa cost
cost or
or benefit
benefit for
for each
each decision
decision -- state-of-nature
state-of-nature
combination
combination

52
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making
Decision
Decision Table:
Table:
State
State of
of Nature
Nature
Decision
Decision rain
rain no-rain
no-rain
take
take aa raincoat
raincoat 00 33
no
no raincoat
raincoat 66 00
(0,
(0, 3,
3, 6,
6, are
are the
the associated
associated costs)
costs)

What
What do
do you
you do
do ??

53
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making
Decision
Decision Table:
Table:
State
State of
of Nature
Nature
Decision
Decision rain
rain no-rain
no-rain
take
take aa raincoat
raincoat 00 33 ((33))
no
no raincoat
raincoat 66 00 (6)
(6)
Minimax
Minimax Solution
Solution (conservative):
(conservative):
take
take aa raincoat
raincoat !!

54
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making
Decision
Decision Table:
Table: (with
(with added
added probabilities)
probabilities)

State
State of
of Nature
Nature
Decision
Decision rain (0.1) no-rain
rain (0.1) no-rain (0.9)
(0.9)
take
take aa raincoat
raincoat 00 (0)
(0) 33 (2.7)
(2.7)(2.7)
(2.7)
no
no raincoat
raincoat 66 (0.6)
(0.6) 00 (0)
(0) ((0.6
0.6))
Bayesian
Bayesian Solution:
Solution:
don’t
don’t take
take aa raincoat
raincoat !!

55
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making
Decision
Decision Table:
Table:
States
States of
of Nature
Nature
Decision
Decision rain (0.1) little
rain (0.1) (0.5) none
little (0.5) none (0.4)
(0.4)

take
take aa raincoat
raincoat 00 (0)
(0) 00 (0)
(0) 33 (1.2)
(1.2)
no
no raincoat
raincoat 66 (0.6)
(0.6) 11 (0.5)
(0.5) 00 (0)
(0)

And
And now
now ??

56
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making
Decision
Decision Table:
Table:
States
States of
of Nature
Nature
Decision
Decision rain (0.1) little
rain (0.1) (0.5) none
little (0.5) none (0.4)
(0.4)

take
take aa raincoat
raincoat 00 (0)
(0) 00 (0)
(0) 33 (1.2)
(1.2) 1.2
1.2
no
no raincoat
raincoat 66 (0.6)
(0.6) 11 (0.5)
(0.5) 00 (0)
(0) 1.1
1.1
MiniMax
MiniMax:: take
take aa raincoat
raincoat
Bayesian
Bayesian:: take
take no
no raincoat
raincoat

57
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms

•• Information
Information systems
systems
•• Scenario
Scenario analysis
analysis
WHAT
WHAT IF IF
•• Rational
Rational maximization
maximization
HOW
HOW TO TO
•• Multiple
Multiple attributes
attributes
58
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision support
support paradigms
paradigms

Multiple
Multiple attributes
attributes
multiple
multiple objectives
objectives
multiple
multiple criteria
criteria

trade-off,
trade-off, compromise,
compromise,
satisfaction,
satisfaction, acceptance
acceptance
59
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making process
process
• Problem
Problem description
description
• Set
Set of
of criteria
criteria
– objectives
– constraints
• Set
Set of
of feasible
feasible alternatives
alternatives
• Evaluation
Evaluation of
of alternatives
alternatives
• Decision
Decision rules
rules
60
© K.Fedra 2000
Decision
Decision making
making process
process

Spatial decisions:
decisions:
• Set of
of criteria
criteria
– objectives
– constraints

are functions
functions of
of space
space

61
© K.Fedra 2000
Spatial
Spatial decisions
decisions

Environmental
Environmental decision
decision are
are also
also
spatial
spatial decisions
decisions:
• site
site selection,
selection, location
location
• pollution
pollution control
control
• natural
natural resources
resources management
management
• environmental
environmental impact
impact assessment
assessment
• risk
risk analysis
analysis and
and management
management
62
© K.Fedra 2000