Workforceplanning

 Presupposes a linear relationship between independent (casual)
variables and dependent (target) variable, e.g., HR demand

 Linearity is the relationship between the independent and
dependent variables
1
Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved
Y = dependent variable (HR demand)
A = constant (Y intercept)
B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y
X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales)
2
Y = A + BX
Y = dependent variable (HR demand)
A = constant (Y intercept)
B = slope of linear relationship between X and Y
X = independent variable (e.g. level of sales)
Where
σ 𝑋𝑌 − 𝑁ሺ𝑋തሻ(𝑌ത)
𝐵=
σ (𝑋 2 ) − 𝑁(𝑋ത)2
3
X Y
Sales # of Marketing Personnel
($ Millions)
2.0 20
3.5 32
4.5 42
6.0 55
7.0 66
5 Sets of observations
4
X Y XY X2
Sales # of
($ Millions) Employees
2.0 25 50 4.00
2.5 28 70 6.25
3.5 30 105 12.25
5.0 38 190 25.00
6.5 54 351 42.25
19.5 175 766 89.75
Average X = 19.5/5 = 3.9 Average Y = 175/5 = 35
N=5
5
XY X2 N=5 Average X = 3.9 Average Y = 35
50 4.00
70 6.25
105 12.25
190 25.00
351 42.25
766 89.75
766 − 5ሺ3.9ሻ(35) 766 − 683

𝐵= 𝐵= 𝐵 = 6.09
89.75 − 5(3.9)2 89.75 − 76.05
σ 𝑋𝑌 − 𝑁ሺ𝑋തሻ(𝑌ത)
𝐵=
σ (𝑋 2 ) − 𝑁(𝑋ത)2
6
Average X = 3.9 Average Y = 35 B = 6.09
IF AND
Y = A + BX A = 35 – (6.09)(3.9)
Then A = 11.23
𝐴 = 𝑌ത− 𝐵𝑋ത
7
Y=A+ Whew! So what?
BX
A = 11.23 Independent causal variable X
B = 6.09 (e.g., sales) AND
Dependent variable Y
X = Dependent Variable (e.g., predicted # of personnel)
Y = 11.23 + (6.09)
(X) Even if sales are zero the value for A is
11.23 (round to 11.0) or 11 persons.
For every increase unit ($1 Million)

sales (X) there is a predicted increase
of 6.09 staff (Y) associated with that
change.
8
Predict the HR demand for personnel at $8 million and $10 million.
Y = A + BX $8 million $10 million

A = 11.23
B = 6.09
Y = A + BX Y = A + BX
X = Sales ($M) A = 11.23 A = 11.23
Y= 11.23 + (6.09)(X) B = 6.09 B = 6.09
X=8 X = 10
Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(8) Y = 11.23 + (6.09)(10)
Y = 59.99 Y = 72.18
60 Staff required 72/73 Staff required
9
 Source of workers to meet demand acquired internally or
externally.
10
 Record held on employee except management or professionals
1. Personal information
2. Education, training and skill competencies, licensing etc.
3. Work history
4. Performance appraisals
5. Career information
6. Hobbies, interests, volunteerism, community involvement
11
 Record for managerial, professional, or technical personnel
that includes all elements in the skills inventory with the
addition of information on specialized duties, responsibilities,
and accountabilities.
1. History of management or professional jobs held

2. A record of management or professional training courses
3. Key accountabilities for the current job
4. Assessment centre and appraisal data
5. Professional and industry association memberships
12
 Process of ensuring that pools of skilled employees are trained
and available to meet the strategic objectives of the organization
 Process of finding employee for key managerial positions
1. Long-term succession
a) Training and work experience to enable individuals to assume higher-
level job appointments in the future
2. Short-term emergency replacement
a) Individuals who have quit, been terminated due to performance
problems, have died, and so on
13
Improve effectively filling vacancies
P r e s id e n t
J a c k N e w la n d
S . L a n d a r (A 1 )
K . C h o w (A 2 )
V P S a le s V P O p e ra tio n s V P M a r k e tin g
J . O b re y (A 2 ) A . C hang (A 2 ) T . S h e rm a n (A 1 )
B . A n d re w s (B 3 ) E . S in g h (B 1 ) U . L a u (C 1 )
D . J e ffe rs (C 1 ) K . P e te rs (C 3 ) H Y u e n (D 2 )
Readiness Performance
A Ready now 1 Outstanding
B Ready in 1 year 2 Above average
C Ready in 2 years 3 Average/good
D Not suitable for this job 4 Below Average
5 Unacceptable
14
 Caused when one promotion or transfer in the organization
causes several other movements as a series of people are
promoted to fill the openings
15
 Produces a series of matrices that detail the various patterns
of movement to and from the various jobs in the organization
 Determines the likelihood that an individual will display
movement behaviours
16
*Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning,
Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
17
 Number of people who move between job levels annually
 Number of external hires needed
 Movement patterns and expected duration in specified jobs
associated with patterns of career progression
 Number and percentage of starters at a particular job who
target a future job within a specified time
18
Level Positions at Start of Period Staff Changes Staff Losses Positions to be Filled
4 1 1 0 1
5 6 6 3 9
6 20 1 5 6
7 32 2 10 12
8 40 2 14 16
9 50 3 21 24
149 15 53 68
Start at the top with the most senior positions since most movement in
organizations is up due to promotions and replacements.
19
Vacancies Total Ripple Movement
1 = 1
9 + 1 = 10
6 + 1 + 9 = 16
12 + 1 + 9 + 6 = 28
16 + 1 + 9 + 6 + 12 = 44
24 + 1 + 9 + 6 + 12 + 16 = 68
68 5 36 18 24 16 167
Movement analysis has identified this year’s need to fill 68 vacancies.

167 moves will be required because of promotion from within.
20
 Analyzes people flow throughout the organization at each
functional or compensation level
Use the following information to calculate next year’s supply forecast.
HR loss during the year Replacement Policy (% external / % internal)

% external % inter
Level 88 (president = 100%Level 88 0 100
Level 87 (vice presidents) = 15% Level 87 10 90
Level 86 (directors) = 17% Level 86 20 80
Level 85 (managers) = 20% Level 85 30 70
Level 84 (senior analysts) = 25% Level 84 55 45
Level 83 (analysts) = 50% Level 83 100 0
21
Start at the top and work your way down
*Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, 22

Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
23
 Organizations must start with the business plan
 Using environmental scanning, managers try to predict where
the organization will be in three to five to ten years
24
1. Job-Based Approach
2. Competency-Based Approach
25
Job Based Approach – Competency-Based Approach
 Focus on duties, skills, job  Focus on measurable attributes
experience, and  Differentiate successful
responsibilities required to employees from non successful
perform the job  Hard and soft skills
 Not adequate since jobs  Produce more flexible individuals
change rapidly
26
1. Core competencies
2. Role or specific competencies
3. Unique or distinctive competencies
27
Several approaches to identify managerial talent, including:
 Temporary replacements
 Replacement charts
 Strategic replacement
 Talent management culture
28
 Promotions
 Job Rotations
 Special Assignments
 Formal Training and Development
 Mentoring and Coaching
29
% Very % Moderate or
Use
Effective Extensive Use
Special projects within job responsibility 77 69

Special projects outside of job responsibility 46 55
Expatriate assignments 26 54
Coaching with internal coaches/mentors 48 45
Formal workshops 85 42
Coaching with external coaches/mentors 28 42
Articles/books 65 27
Tests, assessments or other measures of skills 52 26
Computer based learning 38 16
* From Strategic Human Resource Planning,

30
Senga Consulting Inc. Copyright © 2009 | All Rights Reserved Belcourt and McBey, Nelson, 2010.
 Promotions
 Job Rotations
 Special Assignments
 Formal Training and Development
 Mentoring and Coaching
31
 Corporations with strong succession management programs
are higher performers in revenue growth, profitability and
market share
 HR metrics can be used to help monitor succession
management
32
 Increase engagement scores
 Increase positive perceptions of development opportunities
 High potentials’ perceptions of the succession management
process
 Higher participation in developmental activities
 Greater number involved in the mentoring process
33

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 Presupposes a linear relationship between independent (casual)

variables and dependent (target) variable, e.g., HR demand

19.5 175 766 89.75

Average X = 19.5/5 = 3.9 Average Y = 175/5 = 35

766 − 5ሺ3.9ሻ(35) 766 − 683

For every increase unit ($1 Million)

Y = A + BX $8 million $10 million

1. History of management or professional jobs held

Movement analysis has identified this year’s need to fill 68 vacancies.

HR loss during the year Replacement Policy (% external / % internal)

*Adapted from Strategic Human Resources Planning, 22

2. Role or specific competencies

3. Unique or distinctive competencies

Special projects within job responsibility 77 69

* From Strategic Human Resource Planning,

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