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Chapter 7 1
Interest Rate Futures Introduction
Chapter 7 2
Short-Term Interest Rates Contracts
1. Eurodollar Futures
2. Euribor Futures
3. TIEE 28 Futures
Chapter 7 3
Eurodollar Futures Product Profile
Chapter 7 4
Eurodollar Futures
Chapter 7 5
Eurodollar Futures
Chapter 7 6
Eurodollar Add-on Yield
Or equivalently
Chapter 7 7
Eurodollar Add-on Yield
Price $979,200
$Discount $20,800
Chapter 7 8
Eurodollar Add-on Yield
Chapter 7 9
Euribor Futures
Euronex.liffe
– Contracts are based on a 3-month time deposit with a
€1,000,000 notional value.
Eurex
– Contracts are based on a 3-month time deposit with a
€3,000,000 notional value.
Chapter 7 10
Euribor Futures Product Profile
Chapter 7 11
TIEE 28 Futures
Chapter 7 12
TIEE 28 Futures TIEE 28 Futures
Tick Size: One basis point of the annualized percentile rate of yield
Price Quote: Trading of 28-Day TIIE futures contracts use the annualized percentile rate of
yield expressed in percentile terms, with two decimal places.
Contract Months: MexDer lists different Series of the 28-Day TIIE Futures Contracts on a
monthly basis for up to sixty months (five years).
Expiration and final Settlement: The last trading day is the bank business day after Banco
de México holds the primary auction of government securities in the week corresponding to
the third Wednesday of the Maturity Month.
Trading Hours: Bank businessdays from 7:30 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., Mexico City time.
Daily Price Limit: None
Chapter 7 13
Treasury Bill Futures
Chapter 7 14
Treasury Bill Futures
Where:
DY = Discount Yield
Example
Chapter 7 15
Treasury Bill Futures
Chapter 7 16
Other Short-Term Interest Rate Futures
Chapter 7 17
Longer-Maturity Interest Rate Futures
Chapter 7 18
Treasury Bond Futures
– Position Day
Short declares his/her intentions to make delivery. This may
occur on the first position day or some other later day.
Delivery Day
Chapter 7 19
Treasury Bond Futures
Price Quotation for Major Interest Rate Futures
Contracts
Chapter 7 20
Treasury Bond Futures Delivery Process
Chapter 7 21
Treasury Bond Futures Product Profile
Chapter 7 22
Treasury Bond Futures Conversion
Factor
Chapter 7 23
Treasury Bond Futures Conversion
Factor
Where:
CF = Conversion Factor
(the conversion factor as provided by the CBOT)
AI = Accrued Interest
(Interest that has accrued since the last coupon payment on
the bond)
Chapter 7 24
T-Bond and T-Notes Delivery Sequence
Table 7.1 The Delivery Sequence for T-Bond & T-Note Futures Expiring in
1997
Contract First First First Last Last
Expiration Position Notice Delivery Trading Delivery
MAR 97 FEB 27 FEB 28 MAR 3 MAR 21 MAR 31
JUN MAY 29 MAY 30 JUN 2 JUN 20 JUN 30
SEPT AUG 28 AUG 29 SEPT 2 SEP 19 SEP 30
DEC NOV 26 NOV 28 DEC 1 DEC 19 DEC 31
Chapter 7 25
Treasury Bond Futures Conversion
Factor
Table 7.1
Conversion Factors for Treasury-Bond Futures
for September and December 2004
Chapter 7 26
Treasury Note Futures
Contract Size
Deliverable Maturities
Chapter 7 27
CBOT’s 10-Year Treasury Note Futures
Product Profile
Chapter 7 28
Non-US Long Maturity Interest Rate
Futures
Chapter 7 29
Pricing Interest Rate Futures Contracts
1. Cost-of-Carry Rule 3
2. Cost-of-Carry Rule 6
4. Repo Rates
Chapter 7 30
Cost-of-Carry Rule 3
F 0, t S 0(1 C 0, t )
Where:
Chapter 7 31
Cost-of-Carry Rule 6
F 0, d F 0, n (1 Cn , d )
F0,d = the futures price at t=0 for the the distant delivery
contract maturing at t=d
Chapter 7 32
Full Carry Features
2. Large Supply
3. Non-Seasonal Production
4. Non-Seasonal Consumption
5. High Storability
Chapter 7 33
Repo Rate
F 0, t
1 C 0, t
S0
or
F 0, t
1 C 0, t
S0
Chapter 7 34
Cost-of-Carry Model in Perfect Market
Assumptions
Chapter 7 35
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage for Interest
Rate Futures
Chapter 7 36
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage for Interest
Rate Futures
So, if you sell a T-bill futures contract that calls for delivery
in 77 days, we must purchase a T-bill that will have 90
days to maturity, 77 days from today, in order to meet your
obligations. That is, you must purchase a T-bill that has
167 days to maturity today.
0 77 167
Chapter 7 37
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage for Interest
Rate Futures
Tab le 7.2
Inte rest Rate Futures and Arb itrag e
Today's Date: January 5
Discount Price
Yield ($1,000,000
Futures Face Value)
MAR Contract (Matures in 77 days on March 22) 12.50% $968,750
Cash Bills:
167Bday TBbill (Deliverable on MAR fu- 10.00 953,611
tures)
77Bday TBbill 6.00 987,167
Chapter 7 38
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage for Interest
Rate Futures
0.125(1,000,000)(90)
Bill Price 1,000,000
360
Bill Price 968,750
Chapter 7 39
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage for Interest
Rate Futures
Table 7.3
Cash Band BCarry Arbitrage Transactions
January 5
Borrow $953,611 for 77 days by issuing a 77Bday TBbill at 6%.
Buy 167Bday TBbill yielding 10% for $953,611.
Sell MAR TBbill futures contract with a yield of 12.50% for $968,750.
March 22
Deliver the originally purchased TBbill against the MAR futures contract and collect
$968,750.
Repay debt on 77Bday TBbill that matures today for $966,008.
Profit:
$968,750
B 966,008
$ 2,742
Chapter 7 40
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage for Interest
Rate Futures
360($953,611)
Face Value
360 0.06(77)
343,299,960
Face Value
355.38
Chapter 7 41
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage to Interest
Rate Futures
Chapter 7 42
Reverse Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage to
Interest Rate Futures
Table 7.4
Reverse CashBandBCarry Arbitrage Transactions
January 5
Borrow $952,174 by issuing a 167Bday TBbill at 10%.
Buy a 77Bday TBbill yielding 8% for $952,174 that will pay $968,750 on March 22.
Buy one MAR futures contract with a yield of 12.50% for $968,750.
March 22
Collect $968,750 from the maturing 77Bday TBbill.
Pay $968,750 and take delivery of a 90Bday TBbill from the MAR futures contract.
June
Collect $1,000,000 from the maturing 90Bday TBbill that was delivered on the futures
contract.
Pay $998,493 debt on the maturing 167Bday TBbill.
Profit:
$1,000,000
B 998,493
$ 1,507
Chapter 7 43
Reverse Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage to
Interest Rate Futures
Chapter 7 44
Interest Rate Futures Rate Relationships
Rate relationship that must exist between interest rates to
avoid arbitrage:
Method 1:
Buy a 167 day T-bill
Method 2:
Buy a 77 day T-bill.
Chapter 7 45
Interest Rate Futures Rate Relationships
Method 1
Method 2
Where:
NA Yield = the no arbitrage Yield
DTMFC = days to maturity of the futures contract
Chapter 7 47
Financing Cost and Implied Repo Rate
$968,750 953,611
NA Yield
77
$968,750 X
360
$15,139
NA Yield
$207,204.86
NA Yield 0.07306
Chapter 7 48
Financing Cost and Implied Repo Rate
F 0, t
1 C 0, t
S0
$968,750
1 C 0, t
$953,611
1 C 0, t 1.015875
Chapter 7 49
Financing Cost and Implied Repo Rate
Chapter 7 50
Cost-of-Carry Model for T-Bond Futures
Chapter 7 51
Cost-of-Carry Model in Imperfect
Markets
Chapter 7 52
Cash-and-Carry Strategy
Table 7.6
CashBandBCarry Transactions
with Unequal Borrowing and Lending Rates
January 5
Borrow $953,611 for 77 days at the 77Bday borrowing rate of 7.5563.
Buy 167Bday TBbill yielding 10% for $953,611.
Sell one TBbill futures contract with a yield of 12.29% for $969,275.
March 22
Deliver the originally purchased TBbill against the MAR futures contract and collect
$969,275.
Repay debt on 77Bday TBbill that matures today for $969,277.
Profit: -$2 0
Chapter 7 53
Reserve Cash-and-Carry Transaction
Table 7.7
Reverse CashBandBCarry Transactions
with Unequal Borrowing and Lending Rates
January 5
Borrow $952,454 at the 167-day borrowing rate of 10.25%.
Buy a 77-day T-bill yielding 7.3063% for $952,454.
Buy 1 MAR futures contract with a futures yield of 12.97% for $967,575.
March 22
Collect $967,575 from the maturing 77-day T-bill.
Pay $967,575 and take delivery of a 90-day T-bill on the futures contract.
June 20
Collect $1,000,000 from the maturing 90-day T-bill that was delivered on
the futures contract.
Pay $1,000,003 debt on the maturing 167-day T-bill.
Profit: -$3 0
Chapter 7 54
A Practical Survey of Interest Rate
Futures Pricing
Chapter 7 55
Speculating with Interest Rate Futures
1. Outright Position.
Chapter 7 56
Speculating with Outright Position
Table 7.8
Speculating with Eurodollar Futures
Date Futures Market
September 20 Sell 1 DEC 90 Eurodollar futures at
90.30.
September 25 Buy 1 DEC 90 Eurodollar futures at
90.12.
Profit: 90.30 B 90.12 = .18
Total Gain: 18 basis points $25 = $450
Chapter 7 57
Speculating with Outright Position
Chapter 7 58
Intra-Commodity T-Bill Spread
If you don’t know if rates will rise or fall, but do think that
the shape of the yield curve will change, (that is the
relationship between short term interest rates and long
term interest rates will change) you might engage in an
Intra-commodity T-bill spread.
If you think that the spread will narrow (the yield curve will
become flatter) you would buy the longer term contract and
sell the shorter term contract.
If you think that the spread will widen (the yield curve will
become steeper), you would buy the shorter term contract
and sell the longer term contract.
Chapter 7 59
Intra-Commodity T-Bill Spread
Table 7.9
Spot and Futures Eurodollar Rates for March 20
Time to Maturity or Fu- Add-on Futures Futures IMM In-
tures Expiration Yield Contract Yield dex
3 months 10.00% JUN 12.00% 88.00
6 10.85 SEP 12.50 87.50
9 11.17 DEC 13.50 86.50
12 11.47
Chapter 7 60
Intra-Commodity T-Bill Spread
Since you think that the spread will narrow (the yield curve
will become flatter) you would buy the longer term contract
and sell the shorter term contract, as it is demonstrated in
Table 7.10.
Chapter 7 61
Intra-Commodity T-Bill Spread
Table 7.10
Speculation on Eurodollar Futures
Date Futures Market
March 20 Buy the DEC Eurodollar futures at 86.50.
Sell the SEP Eurodollar futures at 87.50.
April 30 Sell the DEC Eurodollar futures at 88.14.
Buy the SEP Eurodollar futures at 89.02.
Profits:
DEC SEP
88.14 87.50
B86.50 B89.02
1.64 B 1.52
Total Gain: 12 basis points $25 = $300
Chapter 7 62
T-Bill/Eurodollar (TED) Spread
Chapter 7 63
T-Bill/Eurodollar (TED) Spread
Table 7.11
InterBCommodity Spread in Short BTerm Rates
Date Futures Market
February 17 Sell one DEC Eurodollar futures contract with an IMM Index
value of 90.29.
Buy one DEC TBbill futures contract yielding 8.82% with an
IMM Index value of 91.18.
October 14 Buy one DEC Eurodollar futures contract with an IMM Index
value of 89.91.
Sell one DEC TBbill futures contract yielding 8.93% with an
IMM Index value of 91.07.
Profits:
Eurodollar TBbill
90.29 91.07
B89.91 B91.18
.38 B .11
Total Profit: 27 basis points $25 = $675
Chapter 7 64
Notes over Bonds (NOB)
Chapter 7 65
Hedging with Interest Rate Futures
There are several ways that you can hedge with interest
rate futures, including:
1. Long Hedges
2. Short Hedges
3. Cross-Hedges
Chapter 7 66
Hedging with Interest Rate Futures
Chapter 7 67
Long Hedges
Table 7.12
A Long Hedge w ith TBBill Futures
Date Cash Market Futures Market
December 15 A portfolio manager learns he The manager buys one TBbill
will receive $970,000 in six futures contract to mature in six
months to invest in TBbills. months.
Market Yield: 12% Futures price: $970,000
Expected face value of bills to
purchase $1,000,000.
June 15 Manager receives $970,000 to The manager sells one TBbill
invest. futures contract maturing
Market yield: 10% immediately.
$1,000,000 face value of TBbills Futures yield: 10%
now costs $975,000. Futures price: $975,000
Loss = -$5,000 Profit = $5,000
Net wealth change = 0
Chapter 7 68
Long Hedges
0.12($1,000,000)(90)
Bill Price $1,000,000
360
Chapter 7 69
Long Hedges
The futures profit exactly offsets the cash market loss for a
zero change in wealth. With the receipt of the $970,000
that was to be invested, plus the $5,000 futures profit, the
original plan may be executed, and the portfolio manager
purchases $1,000,000 face value in 90-day T-bills.
Chapter 7 70
Short Hedge
Banks may wish to hedge their interest rate positions to
lock in profits. Table 7.13 demonstrates how a bank that
makes a one million dollar fixed rate loan for 9 months,
and can only finance the loan with 6-month CDs, can
hedged its position.
Table 7.13
Hedging a Bank=s Cost of Funds Using Interest Rate Futures
Date Cash Market Futures Market
March Bank makes nine-month fixed rate loan Establish a short position in SEP Eurodollar
financed by a six-month CD at 3.0 percent and futures at 96.5 reflecting a 3.5 percent futures
rolled over for three months at an expected rate yield.
of 3.5 percent.
September Three-month LIBOR is now at 4.5 percent. Offset one SEP Eurodollar futures contract at
The bank=s cost of funds are one percent above 95.5 reflecting a 4.5 percent futures yield.
its expected cost of funds of 3.5 percent. The This produces a profit of $2,500 = 100 basis
additional cost equals $2,500, i.e., 90/360 x .01 points x $25 per basis point x 1 contract.
x $1 million..
Chapter 7 71
Cross-Hedge
1. Risk level
2. Coupon
3. Maturity
Chapter 7 72
Cross-Hedge
Table 7.14
A Cross BHed ge Betw een
T-bill Futures and Commercial Paper
Date Cash Market Futures Market
Time = 0 The Financial V.P. plans to The V.P. sells 1,000 TBbill
sell 90Bday commercial paper futures contracts to mature in 3
in 3 months in the amount of months with a futures yield of
$1 billion, at an expected yield 16%, a futures price per con-
of 17%, which should net the tract of $960,000, and a total
firm $957,500,000. futures price of $960,000,000.
Time = 3 mos. The spot commercial paper The TBbill futures contract is
rate is now 18%, the usual 2% about to mature, so the TBbill
above the spot TBbill rate. futures rate = spot rate = 16%.
Consequently, the sale of the The futures price is still
$1 billion of commercial paper $960,000 per contract, so there
nets $955,000,000, not the is no gain or loss.
expected $957,500,000.
Opportunity loss = ? Gain/loss = 0
Net wealth change = ?
Chapter 7 73