Climate Change in the

Philippines: Impacts and

Opportunities
What’s it all about? Global Fever
(Sources: Climatic Research Unit
of the University of East Anglia,
Hadley Centre of the UK
Meteorological Office, Data set
TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg,
2003)

(Source: NASA GISS Surface

Temperature Analysis or
GISTEMP)
 Increasing levels of GHGs
in the atmosphere make
for a warmer world leading
Greenhouse gases to abrupt changes in climate!
(GHGs) trap heat from
the sun to keep the Earth
warm.

Methane Nitrous Oxide

CO2
Carbon Dioxide N2O CO2 CO2 HFCs
CH4 NO2 N2O
CO2 CO2 CH4 CH4
N O PFCsHFCs
CH SF6CO2
CO2 4 CH4 2
CO2CO2 SF6 CO2
SF6 CO2CO SF6
2

H 2O HFCs
PFCs
Water vapor

The Greenhouse Effect

A Dangerous
Experiment

CO2
Global temp

CH4
 • Global atmospheric
concentrations of carbon
dioxide, methane & nitrous
oxide have increased as a
result of human activities since
1750.
– Pre industrial value: 280
ppm
– 2005 value: 379 ppm

• 11 of the last 12 years (1995-

2006) rank among the 12th
warmest years since 1850
Human & Natural
Drivers of Climate
Change Source: IPCC 4th
th
Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers
 GHG Sources in Phil.

(9,198 kt CO2) (50,038 kt CO2)

TOTAL: 103,085
kt CO2
Source: 1994 Philippine GHG
Inventory

(33,137 kt CO2) (10,711 kt CO2)

  World has gotten
warmer.

 It will continue to
get hotter in this
century and beyond.

 We are causing this

dangerous trend.
What’s it all about?
To summarize…
 • Inundate
wetlands and
other low
lying lands
Rising • Erode
Sea beaches

Levels • Intensify
flooding
Metro Manila
Metro Cebu
Many of our LGUs are highly vulnerable –
located in coastal areas
 • Inundate
wetlands and
other low lying
lands

Rising • Erode beaches

Sea • Intensify flooding

Levels • Increase the

salinity of rivers,
bays and
groundwater
tables
 Developing
countries,
will be hit soonest
and hardest.

Adaptation provides
the way to prepare for
and respond to
these impacts.

This is
the challenge
we face.

SALTWATER
INTRUSION
2003
Based on the * Winter temps will
change more than
IPCC middle summer temps.

range • Minimum daily temp

will increase more
scenario, than max. daily
temp
entire East
Asia Region • Land will warm
more than oceans,
will causing stronger
monsoon
experience
temperature • Higher latitudes and
altitudes will
rise of about experience greater
warming
2.5C by end of
• Number of frost days
the century will decline,
precipitation more rain
that snowfall
Risk: Climate Change
(Temperature)
Temperature
Hazards
 Across Society
Vulnerable sectors
– Agriculture ENSO drought events and rice
– Freshwater
– Health
– Biodiversity
– Forests

1 oC increase leads to
15% decrease in rice yield

From: www.sciencentral.com: Cassman, IRRI, National Academy of Sciences

El Niño and Philippine Crops

Source: Impacts of Climate Change in Asia, Burning our Future, Greenpeace

 Climate Change Impacts
• Increase in sea surface temperatures of
about 0.50C can already initiate
coral bleaching
• 1995 & 1998 coral bleaching events
(e.g., Tubbataha Reef Marine Park,
Bolinao, Kalayaan Island Group, NW Palawan)
Licuanan et al., 2001
• June-Nov 1998 coral bleaching led to 46% decrease
in coral cover and about 49% of overall coral death in the area

Arceo, et. al. Coral Bleaching in the Philippines. Disturbing Climate. 2001
World Wildlife Fund. Climate Change Scenarios for the Philippines

CORAL
BLEACHING
&
DEATH
Coral reefs occupy 1% of total earth’s surface
but is home to 25% of marine life
40 Million Filipinos depend on seafood
as their primary source of protein.
50% of Filipinos depend
on agriculture
/mariculture
as their primary source
of livelihood.
 Annual
mean
More precipitation
precipitation expected to
increase
from about 14% in
increased East Asia –
evaporation but this is
due to higher not
distributed
temp evenly in the
region
Risk: Climate Change
(Rainfall)
Rainfall Hazards
 Disasters: Earth falls

• Mudslide happened after heavy

rains dumped 459.2 mm of rain
on the area in the space of 3 days.

Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte (Feb 2006)

• In Dec 2003, at least 200 died

from landslides and flooding after
the area experienced the heaviest
rainfall in 25 years.

San Ricardo, Southern Leyte (Dec 2003)

 More intense and longer droughts since
1970 particularly in the tropics and
subtropics due to increase in
temperature and decrease in
precipitation.

There is observational evidence of

increase intensity of tropical
cyclone activity in the North
Atlantic since 1970 correlated
with the increase in sea surface
temperature.

Cold days, cold nights and

frost have become less
frequent. While hot
days, hot nights, and
Direct Observations of heat waves have become
Recent Climate more frequent.

Change
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers
In summary, harm’s way:

• Typhoon
– Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)
• Drought (El Nino)
– Mindanao (central, west)
• Climate Change
– Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)
– Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast),
Visayas (east)
 CONCLUSION
• Business as usual is NOT AN OPTION!

• Unless action is taken now:

- the standard of living will suffer far worse
consequences
- poverty will be exacerbated
- there will be more damage to property & lives
- decades of growth can be wiped out
- man’s very survival is at great risk!
 CONCLUSION
• Climate change action
will require concerted
effort of local
governments & their
partners (national govt,
private sector. NGOs, SHARED
communities, devt RESPONSIBILITY
partners) to manage a
changing & more
invasive environment
Climate Change – An integrated framework
 Importance of integrated and
co-benefits approach –
climate change (mitigation and
adaptation), disaster risk
management under the
framework of SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
 pa ign
e’ c am
at
h y Clim
l t
r a H ea
et f o
n D i
a r bo
ow C
e ‘ L
th
 Biodigesters treat sewage, biodegradable components of
solid waste and animal manure and capture the methane gas
(a greenhouse gas)
 Carbon Finance
• An important market-based tool to aid climate
action
• Can support cities in the South promote &
adopt cleaner technologies
• Can generate additional revenues for
possible proponents
• Many opportunities to develop Carbon
Finance projects in key economic sectors
 Clean Development Mechanism
Developing Country

Funding Projects to reduce

GHG emissions
Technology

Industrialized
Country
Emission reduction
compared to an
existing baseline
Certified Emission
Reduction (CER)
From Tragedy
to
Triumph!

The Payatas Dumpsite

 Methane Emission
Reduction Project
QC partnered with PANGEA
– an Italian firm
• Annual reduction in
greenhouse gases: 116,000 BIOGAS PLANT
tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent CERTIFIED
CLEAN
• Total 10-year reduction: DEVELOPMENT
1,163,394 tonnes from 2008 MECHANISM
to 2017 (CDM)
PIPELINES

Benefits to the city:

 Donation of Euro15 -32/CER sold
 Free electricity for power plant
 Free street lighting
 Plantsahan ng Bayan
After 6 years operation, more than 10M tons dumped
in the facility. Saw another OPPORTUNITY –
Landfill Gas to Energy Project

Montalban bidded the project . Montalban Methane

Power Corp ( a joint venture of the Zamora group with
a British firm won)
Investment of
$38M c/o MMPC

Financial
benefits to
Montalban, Rizal:

Royalty of 10% gross

revenues

Project Revenue Profile:

2/3 Power Tariff
1/3 CER Revenue

Estimated emission
reduction of 8.1M tons
of CO2e
We have no choice.
THE WORLD IS CHANGING.

Are we on board as leaders or mere

followers?