1996: The Year That Everything Changed

For US Row Crop Farming

An analysis of USDA-NASS, National Level Data comparing the pre-

biotech, pre-”Freedom to Farm” legislation era (1984-1995) and the
post-biotech era (1999-2010)

Steve Savage, Ph.D.

Author of the Applied Mythology Blog
Email: feedback.sdsavage@gmail.com
Higher resolution versions of graphs available on request

1
 Executive Summary
• In the charts and graphs that follow one can see how the last 27 years of US farming
are clearly divided into two eras with distinctly different trends: 1984-1995 and 1999-
2010 with the period 1996-1998 representing a transitional period
• There were three profound changes in 1996 that altered the course of US Agriculture
1. The introduction of commercial, biotech crops (Corn, Soy, Cotton) which also involved a dramatic increase
in the private investment in crop breeding, particularly for soybeans
2. The 1996 Freedom to Farm Act which was theoretically a program to end farm subsidies and restrictions
over a 7-year period (many later legislative changes have greatly altered that course)
3. Exports of many US crops were disrupted by long delays in the approval of biotech lines in major importing
regions like the EU and Japan
• For almost every crop and geography, there has been a notable change of trend for
what crops are planted, how their yield changes over time, and how much the grower
is paid per unit of yield
– Of the 8 crops studied, only Corn and Soybeans have seen increased planting while Spring Wheat has lost
substantial acreage. Several other crops (Winter Wheat, Barley and Sorghum) have lost acreage but at a
slower rate than before 1996
– The rate of yield increase has been higher in the recent era for all crops but particularly for Corn and Spring
Wheat; however, for several crops there was a “lag” soon after the introduction of biotech traits and during
the transition. Yield changes are a function of specific traits but also many other changes in agronomics,
land selection and other technologies
– For all crops, regardless of biotech status there was a substantial drop in prices from 1996 to 1999 followed
by a sharply higher rate of increase over the next 12 years
• It is difficult to separate the influences of technology and private investment,
government interventions in the market and foreign trade policies. All that is clear is
that in 1996, “everything changed.”

2
 Planting Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era Post-Biotech Era
(1984-1995) (1999-2010)
Corn -0.3% +1.4%

Soybeans -0.4% Jumped ~20% then +0.2%

Spring Wheat +3.1 Dropped 20% then -1.3%

Winter Wheat Flat

Barley Declining rapidly Declining more slowly

Durum Wheat Declining Jumped then declining

Sorghum Declining rapidly Declining more slowly

Cotton Increasing Decreasing

3
 Planting (1 of 2)
Corn Planting Trends Soybean Planting Trends
130 120
Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

y = -0.3155x + 722.97 y = -0.3668x + 819.68
120 2 110 2
R = 0.0301 R = 0.1056
110 100
100 y = 0.1949x - 281.23
y = 1.4467x - 2795.6 90 2
R = 0.0206
90 2
R = 0.5995 80
80
70
70
60
60
50 50

40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Spring Wheat Planting Trends Winter Wheat Planting Trends

140 140
Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

130 y = 3.0697x - 6004.3 130
2
R = 0.648
120 120
110 110
100 100
y = -1.7308x + 3554.1
90 90 2
R = 0.4282
80 80
70 70 y = -0.2095x + 508.94
y = -1.2296x + 2557.5
60 60 2
2
R = 0.5935 R = 0.0207
50 50
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

4
 Planting (2 of 2)
Barley Planting Trends Durum Wheat Planting Trends
200 140
Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

180 130
120
160 y = -4.1907x + 8492.8
110 2
R = 0.544
140 100
120 90
y = -3.0014x + 6079.6 y = -1.3072x + 2703.8
100 2
80 2
R = 0.7505 R = 0.109
y = -8.4465x + 16942 70
80 2
R = 0.8905 60
60 50
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sorghum Planting Trends Cotton Planting Trends

200 140
Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

Planting Index vs to 27-year Average

y = -4.1742x + 8468.8
180 130 2
R = 0.6707
120
160 y = 3.6681x - 7201.4
110 2
R = 0.7248
140 100
y = -3.3437x + 6780.2
120 2
R = 0.6471 90

100 80
70
80
60
y = -6.5624x + 13177
60 50
2
R = 0.6595
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

5
 Yield Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era Post-Biotech Era
(1984-1995) (1999-2010)
Corn +0.7% +1.8%

Soybeans +1.7% Lag 3 years then +1.7%

Spring Wheat +0.3% +2.4%

Winter Wheat +0.1% Jumped10% then +0.1%

Barley +1.5% Lag then +1.9%

Durum Wheat +1% Dropped 20% then +3.4%

Sorghum Flat Dropped 10% then +1.4%

Cotton +0.2% +2.9%

6
 Yields (1 of 2)
Corn Yield Trends Soybean Yield Trends
140 130
y = 1.8334x - 3562.6 y = 1.7128x - 3316.9
130 2 120
Yield Index vs 27-year Average

Yield Index vs 27-year Average

R = 0.6403 2
R = 0.3679
120 110
y = 0.7018x - 1308.4
110 2
R = 0.0562 100
100
90
90 y = 1.6582x - 3215.3
80 2
80 R = 0.4941
70
70
60 60

50 50
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Spring Wheat Yield Trends Winter Wheat Yield Trends

140 85
130 80
Yield Index vs 27-year Average

Yield Index vs 27-year Average

y = 0.3308x - 565.03 y = 0.0767x - 87.092
120 75
2 2
R = 0.0064 R = 0.0054
110
70
100
65
90 y = 0.0857x - 96.139
y = 2.4208x - 4744.2 60 2
80 2
R = 0.0042
R = 0.3755 55
70
60 50

50 45
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

7
 Yields (2 of 2)
Barley Yield Trends Durum Wheat Yield Trends
130 160
y = 1.5403x - 2972.9
120 2
Yield Index vs 27-year Average

Yield Index vs 27-year Average

R = 0.2747 140
110 y = 0.9601x - 1814.1
2
100 120 R = 0.0327
y = 1.9306x - 3761.5
90 2
R = 0.4743 100
80
y = 3.3696x - 6650.1
70 80 2
R = 0.5411
60
60
50
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sorghum Yield Trends Cotton Yield Trends

120 140

110 130
Yield Index vs 27-year Average

Yield Index vs 27-year Average

120
100
110
90 100
80 90
y = -0.0005x + 100.06 y = 1.4015x - 2709.7 y = 2.8857x - 5674.5
70 80 2
2
R = 4E-08
2
R = 0.1766 R = 0.6291
70
60 y = 0.2404x - 387.36
60 2
R = 0.0117
50 50
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

8
 Production Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era Post-Biotech Era
(1984-1995) (1999-2010)
Corn +0.5% +2.8%

Soybeans +1.3% Jumped 20% then +2.1%

Spring Wheat +3.4% Dropped 20% then +1.3%

Winter Wheat -1.1% +0.3%

Barley -5.8% -2.3%

Durum Wheat -0.4% -0.3%

Sorghum -6.6% -2.2%

Cotton + 3.6% -1.3%

9
 Production (1 of 2)
Corn Production Trends Soybean Production Trends
160 160
Production Index vs 27-year Average

Production Index vs 27-year Average

140 140
y = 0.5269x - 965.53 y = 1.3042x - 2514.2
120 120 2
2 R = 0.2498
R = 0.0171
100 100
y = 3.7607x - 7421.1 y = 2.1348x - 4160.8
80 2
80 2
R = 0.7558 R = 0.4458
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Spring Wheat Production Trends Winter Wheat Production Trends

160 140
Production Index vs 27-year Average

Production Index vs 27-year Average

y = 3.3739x - 6615.8
140 2 120
R = 0.2485
120
100
100
80
80 y = -1.1451x + 2382 y = 0.3324x - 571.98
y = 1.2946x - 2495 60 2 2
60 R = 0.0946 R = 0.0097
2
R = 0.1587
40
40

20 20

0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10
 Production (2 of 2)
Barley Production Trends Durum Wheat Production Trends
200 160
Production Index vs 27-year Average

Production Index vs 27-year Average

180 140
160
120
140
120 100

100 80
80 60
60
y = -5.8139x + 11697 40
40 2 y = -0.2776x + 651.58
R = 0.5099 y = -2.3209x + 4720.5 y = -0.3773x + 850.51
20 20 2 2
2
R = 0.489 R = 0.0042 R = 0.0032
0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sorghum Production Trends Cotton Production Trends

250 160
Production Index vs 27-year Average

Production Index vs 27-year Average

y = 3.5777x - 7027.9
140 2
200 R = 0.6307
120

150 100

80
100 y = -1.2877x + 2690.8
60 2
R = 0.047
40
50
y = -2.1774x + 4439 20
y = -6.5688x + 13191
2
2
R = 0.4793 R = 0.2767
0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

11
 Price Analysis
Crop Pre-Biotech Era Post-Biotech Era
(1984-1995) (1999-2010)
Corn +1.9% Dropped 30%, then +10.9%

Soybeans +1% Dropped 30%, then +9.9%

Spring Wheat +1.8% Dropped 20% then +9.8%

Winter Wheat +2% Dropped 40% then +9.7%

Barley +1.1% Dropped 20% then 9.4%

Durum Wheat +3.2% Dropped 50% then +10.6%

Sorghum +2.7% Dropped 40% then +11%

Cotton +2% Dropped 50% then +4%

12
 Prices (1 of 2)
Corn Price Trends Soybean Price Trends
220 200
y = 10.906x - 21750 y = 9.8674x - 19669
200 180
Price Index vs 27-year Average

Price Index vs 27-year Average

2 2
R = 0.7583 R = 0.813
180 160
160 y = 0.9641x - 1827.6
140
y = 1.9019x - 3693.7 2
R = 0.0984
140 2
R = 0.1795 120
120
100
100
80 80

60 60

40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Spring Wheat Price Trends Winter Wheat Price Trends

200 200
y = 9.8283x - 19585 y = 9.7075x - 19347
180 180
Price Index vs 27-year Average

Price Index vs 27-year Average

2 2
R = 0.7033 R = 0.7546
160 160
y = 1.7861x - 3467.2 y = 2.0414x - 3972.2
140 2
140 2
R = 0.1847 R = 0.1993
120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

13
 Prices (2 of 2)
Barley Price Trends Durum Wheat Price Trends
220 290
200
Price Index vs 27-year Average

Price Index vs 27-year Average

y = 9.4485x - 18820 240
180 2
R = 0.6941
160 y = 10.584x - 21103
y = 1.1272x - 2159.9 190 2
140 2 y = 3.1779x - 6236.2 R = 0.4651
R = 0.0813 2
120 R = 0.2596
140
100
80 90
60
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sorghum Price Trends Cotton Price Trends

240 160
y = 2.0081x - 3889.4
220 2
R = 0.3225
Price Index vs 27-year Average

Price Index vs 27-year Average

140 y = 4.0478x - 8022.8
200 2
R = 0.43
y = 11.005x - 21944
180 2
y = 2.7296x - 5341.7 R = 0.674 120
160 2
R = 0.2962
140 100
120
80
100
80
60
60
40 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

14