Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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>
Understanding probability
Using probability to understand expected
value and risk
Applications
Financial transactions at future dates
Travel mode (or time)
Product purchase
Insurance (and warranties)
Enter a market
Legal enterprises
Any others?
Life is full of uncertainty
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What is Randomness?
>A
lack of information?
> Can it be made to go away with
enough information?
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Quantifying randomness
The context: An i ii that admits several
possible outcomes
Some outcome will occur
The observer is uncertain which (or what) before
the experiment takes place
= i
i the set of possible outcomes. (Also
called the i
i.)
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a measure of likelihood attached to
the events in the event space. (Try to define
probability without using a word that means
probability.)
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Assigning Probabilities
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Sources of Probability
Physical events mechanical. Random number generators,
e.g., coins, cards, computers
i
i long run frequencies (the law of large numbers)
i
i probabilities, e.g., sports betting, belief of the risk of
flying. Assessments based on the accumulation of personal
information.
Aggregation of subjective frequencies ( i , sports
betting lines, insurance, casinos, racetrack)
Mathematical models: weather, options pricing
Extremely rare events can we really attach probabilities to
these? (Found at Gettysburg, 2 bullets that collided in midair.
What is the probability?)
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Counting Permutations
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Permutations
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Permutations
The number of ways to put N
objects in order is N(N-1)(1)
N! E.g., AJEL, ALEJ, AEJL, and
so on. 24 possibilities
> The number of ways to order r
objects chosen out of N is
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N(N -1)(N - 2)...(N - r +1)
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Useful Results
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Appplications:
Games of Chance; Poker
In a card hand from a deck of 2,
there are 2* 1* 0*49*48)/( *4*3*2*1)
different possible hands. (Order
doesnt matter). 2, 98,960 possible
hands.
> How many of these hands have 4
aces? 48 the 4 aces plus any of the
remaining 48 cards.
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Probability of 4 Aces
Number of hands with 4 aces
P(4 Aces)
Number of hands with cards
4 48
4 1
2
1 48
%'()#
2, 98,960
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The total number of possible different hands is therefore 6(6)(44) 1, 84. If he
held the bullets (black cards), then there are only (1)(1)(44) 44 combinations.
There is a claim that the th card was a diamond. This reduces the number of
possible combinations to (1)(1)(11).
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Probabilities of
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Odds (Ratios)
Prob(Event)
Odds in Favor
1-Prob(Event)
1-Prob(Event)
Odds Against
Prob(Event)
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Joint Events:
Pick a Card, Any Card
Event Diamond: P(Diamond) 13/ 2
2 3 4
6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
> Event Ace: P(Ace) 4/ 2
A A A A
> Event or Diamond or Ace
P(Diamond or Ace)
P(Diamond) + P(Ace) P(Diamond Ace)
13/ 2 + 4/ 2 1/ 2 16/ 2
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Application
Survey of 27326 German Individuals over years
Frequency in black, sample proportion in red.
E.g., .041861144/27326, . 212314243/27326
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Conditional Probability
Conditional event occurrence of an
event given that some other event has
occurred.
> Conditional probability Probability of
an event given that some other event
is certain to occur. ii|,
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Conditional Probabilities
Company ESI sells two types of software, Basic and
Advanced, to two markets, Government and Academic.
Sales occur with the following probabilities:
Academic
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.3
.7
Basic
Advanced
Total
Government
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Total
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1.0
P(Basic | Academic)
.4 / .7 . 71
P(Government | Advanced) .1 / .4 .2
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Independent Events
Events are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect
probabilities related to the other.
> Events A and B are independent if
P(A|B) P(A). I.e., conditioning on B
does not affect the probability of A.
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Independent Events?
Pick a Card, Any Card
P(Red card drawn) 26/ 2 1/2
> P(Ace drawn)
4/ 2
1/13.
> P(Ace|Red) (2/ 2) / (26/ 2) 1/13
> P(Ace) P(Ace|Red) so Red Card
and Ace are independent.
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Independent Events?
Company ESI sells two types of software, Basic and Advanced, to two
markets, Government and Academic.
Sales occur randomly with the following probabilities:
Academic
.4
.3
.7
Basic
Advanced
Total
Government
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Total
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1.0
P(Basic | Academic)
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P(Government | Advanced) .1 / .4 .2
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P(B)
P(B | )P( )
efinition
Com tation
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4
| |
Drug Testing
>
>
>
>
Data
P(Test correctly indicates disease).98 (Sensitivity)
P(Test correctly indicates absence).9 (Specificity)
P(Disease) .00 (Fairly rare)
Notation
+ test indicates disease, indicates no disease
D presence of disease, N absence of disease
Data:
P(D) .00 (Incidence of the disease)
P(+|D) .98 (Correct detection of the disease)
P(|N) .9
(Correct failure to detect the disease)
What are P(D|+) and P(N|)?
Note, P(D|+) the probability that a patient actually has the
disease when the test says they do.
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More Information
Deduce: Since P(+|D).98, we know
P(|D).02 because P(-|D)+P(+|D)1
P(|D) is the P(False negative).
> Deduce: Since P(|N).9 , we know
P(+|N).0 because P(-|N)+P(+|N)1
P(+|N) is the P(False positive).
> Deduce: Since P(D).00 , P(N).99
because P(D)+P(N)1.
>
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. hat is ( | )?
P( a
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P( | )P( )
=
(By Bayes Theorem)
P( )
P( )
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)
P( | )=
= P( | )P( )
P( | ) =
P( |N)P(N) so
P( | )P( )
P( | )P( )
=
P( | )P( ) P( |N)P(N)
P( )
.
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the same a
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5)+. 5(.
5)
= .
(!!)
roach, P(-|N) = .
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Summary
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