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An undisputed truth?
Belief in superiority of free trade near universal amongst economists Basic proposition put by Samuelson & Nordhaus: Simply put, trade promotes specialization, and specialization increases productivity. (297) Argument essentially unchanged since Ricardo in 1817: Trade lets countries specialise in producing goods in which they have a comparative advantage:
Not absolute productivity relative to other country, but Comparative productivity with respect to own industries
Free Trade and Specialisation Ricardos Comparative Advantage Took case Mercantilists argued would mean rival (Portugal) would defeat England in open trade
Portugal assumed better than England at producing everything Argued that England would still benefit from free trade
The Model:
Free Trade and Specialisation Two countries producing 2 commodities Assume Portugal Absolutely more efficient at producing both wine and cloth Relatively more efficient at producing wine than cloth More of both wine and cloth produced if England specialises in cloth Portugal specialises in wine Countries trade surpluses and increase consumption of both goods in both countries
Comparative Advantage
Portugal (per 1000 men) 90 men to produce x units of cloth 80 men to produce y units of wine can produce
11.1 units of cloth; or 12.5 units of wine; or any straight line combination of the two
England (per 1000 men) 100 men to produce x units of cloth 120 men to produce y units of wine can produce 10 units cloth, 8.5 units of wine, or any linear combination:
Comparative Advantage So with no trade: Portugal Max. 11.1 cloth, or 12.5 wine England Max 10 cloth, or 8 1/3 wine Trade Portugal 12.5 wine, England 10 cloth Exchange surpluses, total output greater Putting Ricardos arguments in a diagram
Comparative Advantage
Wine
Trade: England produces only Cloth, Portugal only Wine; output higher
Comparative Advantage
Under a system of perfectly free commerce, each country naturally devotes its capital and labour to such employments as are most beneficial to each. This pursuit of individual advantage is admirably connected with the universal good of the whole. By stimulating industry, by regarding ingenuity, and by using most efficaciously the peculiar powers bestowed by nature, it distributes labour most effectively and most economically. (Ricardo 1817) Clever logical argument aided repeal of Corn Laws Identical to modern economic belief (Ricardos model is economics one big trick)
Show increase in output by reallocating static resources
Ricardos Realpolitik
It has been my endeavour to shew throughout this work, that the rate of profits can never be increased but by a fall in wages, and that there can be no permanent fall of wages but in consequence of a fall of the necessaries on which wages are expended. If, therefore, by the extension of foreign trade, or by improvements in machinery, the food and necessaries of the labourer can be brought to market at a reduced price, profits will rise. (Ricardo 1817) Ricardos real interest not efficiency, but shift income from landlords to capitalists (workers irrelevant to Ricardo)
consumption
e ad Tr
production
e ic pr t ra io
Price ratio
Identical technology used in production everywhere Initially, even Samuelson admitted qualms about them:
Country with relative abundance of capital should export capital intensive goods Country with relative abundance of labour should export labour intensive goods Trade should cause factor price equalization: wages and return on capital should tend to equality throughout world under freer trade Trade surplus should only lead to inflation since economies in full employment Exploits countrys comparative advantage
Trade surpluses should be counterproductive Free Trade best route for development
Composite export & import commodities defined Composite labour and capital factors Later generalisations (more disaggregated commodities & factors) generally reached same result: Some recent results find theory valid but only if another result of theory dropped: factor price equalization
Pattern of trade opposite to predictions of HOS theory
Exports capital component $14K per man-year Imports capital component $18K per man-year Reverse of Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson prediction!
Trade surpluses
Theory says trade surplus futile because With fixed exchange rates causes increase in money supply
drives up prices Domestic inflation makes commodities more expensive on world market Restores equilibrium
Trade surpluses
while economic protection may raise employment, it does not constitute an effective program to pursue high employment, efficiency, and stable prices. This lesson was amply demonstrated in the 1990s. From 1991 to 1999, the United States created 16 million net new jobs while maintaining open markets and low tariffs; its trade deficit increased sharply during this period. By contrast Japan had rising unemployment with a growing trade surplus. (Samuelson: 316) Really? Heres the data ( WTO) http://stat.wto.org
current (nominal) prices
Trade surpluses
US trade deficit began 1968 Accelerated in 1990s Japan surplus began 1981 Constant across 1990s Falling in real terms:
Balance of Trade 200 100 0 US $ Billion 1945 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 Years 1955 USA 1965 Japan 1975 1985 1995 2005
Japans stagnation: 1989 Bubble Economy collapse US boom: Internet Bubble Trade performances irrelevant
85% of world trade in manufactures, only 15% is agriculture/raw materials Japans MITI calculates products invented before 1950 constituted < 20% of sales in 1990
There are, in fact, reasons to be skeptical about the existence of a general, unambiguous relationship between trade openness and growth. The relationship is likely to be a contingent one, dependent on a host of country and external characteristics. The fact that practically all of todays advanced countries embarked on their growth behind tariff barriers and reduced protection only subsequently surely offers a clue of sorts. (Rodrik 2002, Trade Policy Reform as Institutional Reform Development, Trade, And The WTO: A Handbook, p. 9) Handbook
Trade or innovation?
Conjecture: policies that promote innovation may be more important than policies that promote level playing field Next week: Porters management-oriented theory of competitive advantage