DECEMBER 2004 INDIAN OCEAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

BASIC CONCEPTS: RIGID PLATES

Earth's outer shell made up of ~15 major rigid plates ~ 100 km thick Plates move relative to each other at speeds of a few cm/ yr (about the speed at which fingernails grow) Plates are rigid in the sense that little (ideally no) deformation occurs within them, Most (ideally all) deformation occurs at their boundaries, giving rise to earthquakes, mountain building, volcanism, and other spectacular phenomena. Style of boundary and intraplate deformation depends on direction & rate of motion, together with thermo-mechanical structure

BASIC CONCEPTS: THERMAL EVOLUTION OF OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE

Stein & Wysession 2003

Warm mantle material upwells at spreading centers and then cools Because rock strength decreases with temperature, cooling material forms strong plates of lithosphere Cooling oceanic lithosphere moves away from the ridges, eventually reaches subduction zones and descends in downgoing slabs back into the mantle, reheating as it goes Lithosphere is cold outer boundary layer of thermal convection system involving mantle and core that removes heat from Earth's interior, controlling its evolution

INDIAN PLATE MOVES NORTH COLLIDING WITH EURASIA

Gordon & Stein, 1992

COMPLEX PLATE BOUNDARY ZONE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Northward motion of India deforms all of the region Many small plates (microplates) and blocks

Molnar & Tapponier, 1977

India subducts beneath Burma microplate at about 50 mm/yr Earthquakes occur at plate interface along the Sumatra arc (Sunda trench) These are spectacular & destructive results of many years of accumulated motion

INTERSEISMIC: India subducts beneath Burma microplate at about 50 mm/yr (precise rate hard to infer given complex geometry) Fault interface is locked EARTHQUAKE (COSEISMIC): Fault interface slips, overriding plate rebounds, releasing accumulated motion

HOW OFTEN:

Stein & Wysession, 2003

Fault slipped ~ 10 m = 10000 mm / 50 mm/yr 10000 mm / 50 mm/yr = 200 yr Longer if some slip is aseismic Faults arent exactly periodic for reasons we dont understand

MODELING SEISMOGRAMS shows how slip varied on fault plane Maximum slip area ~400 km long Maximum slip ~ 20 m
Stein & Wysession

TWO VIEWS OF THE PART OF THE SUMATRA SUBDUCTION ZONE THAT SLIPPED

ERI

Seismogram analysis shows most slip in southern 400 km

C. Ji

Aftershocks show slip extended almost 1200 km

Earthquakes rupture a patch along fault's surface. Generally speaking, the larger the rupture patch, the larger the earthquake magnitude. Initial estimates from the aftershock distribution show the magnitude 9.3 SumatraAndaman Islands Earthquake ruptured a patch of fault roughly the size of California For comparison, a magnitude 5 earthquake would rupture a patch roughly the size of New York City's Central Park.

NORMAL MODES (ULTRA-LONG PERIOD WAVES) SHOW SEISMIC MOMENT 3 TIMES THAT INFERRED FROM SURFACE WAVES IMPLIES SLIP ON AREA 3 TIMES LARGER

Entire 1200-km long aftershock zone likely slipped

0S2

YIELDS SEISMIC MOMENT Mo = 1 x 1030 dyn-cm

2.5 TIMES BIGGER THAN INFERRED FROM 300-s SURFACE WAVES CORRESPONDING MOMENT MAGNITUDE Mw IS 9.3, COMPARED TO 9.0 FROM SURFACE WAVES

Comparison of fault areas, moments, magnitudes, amount of slip shows this was a gigantic earthquake
the big one

IF ENTIRE ZONE SLIPPED, STRAIN BUILT UP HAS BEEN RELEASED, LEAVING LITTLE DANGER OF COMPARABLE TSUNAMI

Risk of local tsunami from large aftershocks or oceanwide tsunami from boundary segments to south remains

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE 9.3

Stein & Wysession after IRIS

One of the largest earthquakes since seismometer invented ~ 1900

SUCH GREAT EARTHQUAKES ARE RARE

Stein & Wysession, 2003

SOME MAJOR DAMAGE DONE BY EARTHQUAKE SHAKING ITSELF, BUT STRONG GROUND MOTION DECAYS RAPIDLY WITH DISTANCE

0.2 g

Stein & Wysession, 2003

DAMAGE DEPENDS ON BUILDING TYPE RESISTANT CONSTRUCTION REDUCES EARTHQUAKE RISKS

0.2 g Damage onset for modern buildings

Earthquakes don't kill people; buildings kill people."

Coburn & Spence 1992

TSUNAMI - water wave generated by earthquake

NY Times

TSUNAMI GENERATED ALONG FAULT, WHERE SEA FLOOR DISPLACED, AND SPREADS OUTWARD

QuickTim e and a TIFF (LZW) decom pressor are needed to see this picture.

Hyndeman and Wang, 1993

Red - up motion, blue down

http://staff.aist.go.jp/kenji.satake/animation.gif

TSUNAMI SPEED IN DEEP WATER of depth d

c = (gd)1/2
g = 9.8 m/s2 d = 4000 m c = 200 m/s = 720 km/hr = 450 m/hr
Qui GI t i t i i tur e.

Tsunami generated along fault, where sea floor displaced, and spreads outward

Reached Sri Lanka in 2 hrs, India in 2-3

http://staff.aist.go.jp/kenji.satake/animation.gif

WAVE PATH GIVEN BY SNELLS LAW Going from material with speed v1 to speed v2 Angle of incidence I changes by sin i1 / v1 = sin i2 / v2

SLOW FAST

Stein & Wysession

Tsunami wave bends as water depth & thus speed changes

TRACE RAY PATHS USING SNELLS LAW RAYS BEND AS WATER DEPTH CHANGES FIND WHEN WAVES ARRIVE AT DIFFERENT PLACES DENSITY OF WAVES SHOWS FOCUSING & DEFOCUSING

1 hour

Woods & Okal, 1987

NOAA

IN DEEP OCEAN tsunami has long wavelength, travels fast, small amplitude - doesnt affect ships

AS IT APPROACHES SHORE, it slows. Since energy is conserved, amplitude builds up - very damaging

TSUNAMI WARNING

Deep ocean buoys can measure wave heights, verify tsunami and reduce false alarms

Because seismic waves travel much faster (km/s) than tsunamis, rapid analysis of seismograms can identify earthquakes likely to cause major tsunamis and predict when waves will arrive

HOWEVER, HARD TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKES recurrence is highly variable

Sieh et al., 1989

Extend earthquake history with geologic records paleoseismology

M>7 mean 132 yr W 105 yr Estimated probability in 30 yrs 7-51%

EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AT SUBDUCTION ZONES IS COM PLICATED

In many subduction zones, thrust earthquakes have patterns in space and time. Large earthquakes occurred in the Nankai trough area of Japan approximately every 125 years since 1498 with similar fault areas In some cases entire region seems to have slipped at once; in others slip was divided into several events over a few years. Repeatability suggests that a segment that has not slipped for some time is a gap due for an earthquake, but its hard to use this concept well because of variability

GAP? NOTHING YET

Ando, 1975

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION? Because little is known about the fundamental physics of faulting, many attempts to predict earthquakes searched for precursors, observable behavior that precedes earthquakes. To date, search has proved generally unsuccessful In one hypothesis, all earthquakes start off as tiny earthquakes, which happen frequently, but only a few cascade via random failure process into large earthquakes This hypothesis draws on ideas from nonlinear dynamics or chaos theory, in which small perturbations can grow to have unpredictable large consequences. These ideas were posed in terms of the possibility that the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil might set off a tornado in Texas, or in general that minuscule disturbances do not affect the overall frequency of storms but can modify when they occur If so, there is nothing special about those tiny earthquakes that happen to grow into large ones, the interval between large earthquakes is highly variable and no observable precursors should occur before them. Thus earthquake prediction is either impossible or nearly so. Its hard to predict earthquakes, especially before they happen

PLATE TECTONICS IS DESTRUCTIVE TO HUMAN SOCIETY

Mt Saint Helens 1980 eruption

US S

1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

BUT PLATE TECTONICS IS ALSO CRUCIAL FOR HUMAN LIFE

Plate boundary volcanism produces atmospheric gases (carbon dioxide CO2 ; water H2O) needed to support life and keep planet warm enough for life ("greenhouse" ) May explain how life evolved on earth (at midocean ridge hot springs) Plate tectonics raises continents above sea level Plate tectonics produces mineral resources including fossil fuels
Press & Siever

CIVILIZATION EXISTS BY GEOLOGICAL CONSENT

The same geologic processes that make our planet habitable also make it dangerous

HAWAII TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM: EMERGENCY RESPONSE and TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS

Major Natural Disaster Fatalities in Hawaii during the 20th Century

250

13 Pacific-wide tsunamis hit the Hawaiian Islands. The three most destructive tsunamis caused a combined total of 222 deaths and hundreds of injuries:
April 1, 1946 (Aleutian Islands) May 23, 1960 (Chile) November 29, 1975 (Kalapana)
Deaths per Disaster in the 20th Century

200

150 EQ (0) Hurricane (7) 100 Volcano (2) Tsunami (222)

50

Major Natural Disaster Fatalities in Hawaii during the 20th Century

250

13 Pacific-wide tsunamis hit the Hawaiian Islands. The three most destructive tsunamis caused a combined total of 222 deaths and hundreds of injuries:
April 1, 1946 (Aleutian Islands) May 23, 1960 (Chile) November 29, 1975 (Kalapana)
Deaths per Disaster in the 20th Century

200

150 EQ (0) Hurricane (7) 100 Volcano (2) Tsunami (222)

50

Hilo, April 1946

Hilo, May 1960

PTWC AND HAWAII AS EXAMPLE OF END-TO-END SYSTEM

HAWAII DID TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENTS IN THE 1970s AND CONTINUE TO UPDATE TSUNAMI EVACUATION ZONES PUBLISHED IN TELEPHONE BOOKS PUBLIC EDUCATION PROGRAMS IN PLACE INCLUDING A TSUNAMI AWARENESS MONTH STATE AND COUNTIES RECEIVE PTWC BULLETINS BY MULTIPLE MEANS PUBLIC IS NOTIFIED BY MULTIPLE MEANS: SIRENS, MEANS: RADIO, TELEVISION, AIRPLANES

PTWC AND HAWAII AS EXAMPLE OF END-TO-END SYSTEM

COUNTIES PARTICIPATE IN NWS TSUNAMI-READY TSUNAMIPROGRAM STATE CONDUCTS SEMI-ANNUAL TSUNAMI SEMIEXERCISES STATE AND COUNTIES HAVE PRE-ESTABLISHED PREPROCEDURES FOR CARRYING OUT TSUNAMI EVACUATIONS AND RESPONSE WITH POLICE, FIRE, AND OTHER DEPARTMENTS

PTWC AND HAWAII AS EXAMPLE OF END-TO-END SYSTEM

STATE ORGANIZES AND HOLDS SEMI-ANNUAL SEMISTAKEHOLDERS MEETINGS OF ITS TSUNAMI TECHNICAL REVIEW COMMITTEE THAT INCLUDES PTWC, EMERGENCY MANAGERS, EMERGENCY RESPONDERS, AND SCIENTISTS STATE OF HAWAII AND ITS COUNTIES HAVE EXPERTS THAT SERVE AS TSUNAMI ADVISORS HAWAII PARTICIPATES IN THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI HAZARD MITIGATION PROGRAM

Hawaii Civil Defense System

MISSION
Minimize loss of life and property Provide for welfare & safety of citizens Restore vital services Provide for continuity of government Manage resources for recovery

AUTHORITIES
Federal, State laws Governors Directive to lead Emergency Response

Mitigation

Pre-Event Preparedness
Plans Information Training Education Resources

Insurance Coverage Regulations Codes Legislation

Recovery
Funding Loans Grants Assistance Insurance

Comprehensive Emergency Management

Response
Alert Notification Law Enforcement Fire/Rescue Medical Utilities

Post-Event

Hawaii Civil Defense System

Federal Agencies State Agencies County Agencies Private Supporting Agencies

Sirens Emergency Alert System Radios Telephones/Hotlines Wire Data Systems Satellite

Statewide Siren Warning System

356 total sirens Statewide:

Kauai Oahu Maui Big Island

47 176 66 67

All sirens are radio controlled. New sirens are solar powered.

How it Works (Emergency Alert System, EAS):

Audio & Crawlers

BROADCASTERS

Audio

EAS Audio & Alarm

Activated by: National Weather Service State Civil Defense County Civil Defense

Emergency Alert System (EAS)

- SCD EOC initiates public message, - Transmits immediately by dedicated microwave link - Designated radio stations - neighbor islands - TV broadcasts (crawlers) originate from Honolulu

Governor NAWAS HAWAS SWP/HPD OCDA EOC National Guard

CINCPAC USARPAC/AUTOVON Secure Phone(STU III) Facsimile

6060-Channel Recorder (radio & wire) Computer Notifier System AfterAfter-Hours Coverage

STATE EOC
Six Servers (Including Backup) SUN Sparc Stations (email & web site) Micron NT Servers (Office automation)

FIBER OPTIC CONNECTIVITY

Maui PDC Statewide Nationwide

STATE DIGITAL MICROWAVE wide area network

PCs-Oahu,Kauai, Maui,Hawaii EOCs

LOCAL AREA NETWORK

Workstations, Printers, Scanners, CD Rom Tower

SATELLITE BACKUP, WIRELESS LINKS

Connecting County EOCs

Tsunami Evacuation Maps

located in the front of Telephone White Pages

Local Tsunami Threat: 30 minutes to Waikiki, Oahu

SENSE-ing a Tsunami
TOUCH

Strong local earthquakes may cause tsunamis. FEEL the ground shaking severely? Evacuate low-lying coastal areas and move inland to higher ground!
SIGHT

As a tsunami approaches shorelines, water may recede from the coast, exposing the ocean floor and reefs. SEE an unusual disappearance of water? Evacuate lowlying coastal areas and move inland to higher ground!
SOUND

The abnormal ocean activity, a wall of water, and approaching tsunami waves create a loud roaring sound similar to that of a train or jet aircraft. HEAR the roar? Evacuate low-lying coastal areas and move inland to higher ground!

Local Tsunami Warning & Evacuation

PTWC issues an urgent tsunami warning for local earthquakes magnitude 6.9 or greater. County Warning Points sound sirens in designated Counties (e.g. Hawaii and Maui Counties). National Weather Service broadcasts warning and evacuation through the EAS. EOC activate and prepare for disaster response operations.

LOCAL TSUNAMI WARNING RADIO BROADCAST SCRIPT

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has issued a Tsunami Warning for the Islands of (select islands or geographical location). A local tsunami has been generated. Immediately evacuate all beaches and all low lying coastal areas. Move inland to higher ground or move to the 3rd floor and above in reinforced concrete buildings. I Repeat, ..

4.5 hrs

15 hrs

Distant Tsunami Warning & Evacuation

PTWC issues Tsunami Watch and Warning Bulletins to the State of Hawaii for distant earthquakes magnitude 7.9 or greater. Emergency Operation Centers (EOC) activate and alert emergency response agencies. EOC coordinate siren sounding statewide at least 3 hours before 1st wave arrival in conjunction with radio and television Emergency Alert System (EAS) broadcasts. EOC coordinate school closures and release of government workforce within tsunami evacuation zones. EOC prepare for disaster response operations.

Oahu Bus Routes & Roadblocks

City buses along the shoreline will alter their routes and shuttle people to the nearest inland shelter. Police will establish roadblocks 45 minutes prior to first wave arrival. All emergency response personnel will cease operations and move inland to safety 30 minutes prior to first wave arrival. Special concern in Hawaii is education of surfers tsunamis are not surfing waves!

Public Safety Notification

ALL CLEAR
PTWC will cancel the tsunami warning when destructive waves have ceased. Search & Rescue operations commence. County Civil Defense agencies announce All Clear over radio and television. No sirens will sound. Public may return to coastlines after All Clear is announced.

1986, 1994 Tsunami Warnings Media Reports



Pacific -wide Tsunami Warnings Issued Sirens sounded, Statewide evacuations Small, non-destructive tsunamis


1986 - mid-afternoon to pm rush hour 1994 - early morning to am rush hour Losses 1994 (DBEDT Study) => $50M 1986 (extrapolated) => $30M 2003 (extrapolated) => $68M
 

Media reports shape public opinion