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Abstract
Critics say India's record GDP growth of 8% in recent years has benefited a tiny elite, bypassing poor regions and groups. In fact 8% growth has been made possible only by phenomenal growth in poor states accounting for half India's population. So, it is not the case that, having achieved 8% growth, India must ensure that something trickles down to poor regions. Rather, fast growth has trickled up from poor states to the national level. They are now enjoying a demographic dividend that bodes well for the future. Literacy has improved fastest in the poor states. Dalits in north India have registered big leaps in dignity and incomes in the fast-growth era. One result is that three-quarters of incumbent governments now get re-elected, whereas three-quarters use to lose. Despite these gains, enormous problems remain of poverty, inequality, discrimination and dismal public service delivery.
Poor states Bihar 0.17 Assam 0.17 Jharkhand 0.2 Rajasthan 0.2 UP 0.23 MP 0.24 Orissa 0.25 Chhattisgarh 0.24
Advanced states Maharashtra 0.27 Gujarat 0.25 Punjab 0.26 Haryana 0.31 Kerala 0.29 Tamil Nadu 0.26 Karnataka 0.23 INDIA 0.25
1993-94 14.2 6.8 2.6 3.3 14.3 9.9 9.4 1.5 5.2
Nutritional puzzles
Per capita calorie consumption falling for all deciles although far below nutritional norm of 2,200 Kcal/day Consumption switch from cereals to superior foods esp fats: not sign of distress. Hunger is also almost gone. Why then are nutrition indicators among the worst in the world? Many puzzles. Richest 20% of pop has 20% underweight kids, 25% stunted,13% wasting. Anaemia, diabetes very high, but affects richest too. FHS-III suggested underweight kids barely changed from 47% to 46% between 1998-99 and 2005-06. But stunting declined from 51% to 45%. Wasting worsened from 20 to 23%.Very puzzling: why should wasting worsen if heights improving? NNMB survey has almost opposite resultfall in underweight kids and wasting, rise in stunting! Indicators look terrible, yet many puzzles defy analysis. (Deaton and Dreze 2008)
Fall in population growth rate between 2001 and 2011 (percentage points)
Bihar 3.55 UP 5.76 MP 3.96 Orissa 2.3 Jharkand 2.1 Chatisgarh INDIA -4.3 3.9