The Climate-Energy-Water nexus: what sorts of knowledge do we need, and how might we get it?

Andrew Campbell
Triple Helix Consulting www.triplehelix.com.au

Outline
Converging Insecurities
Climate Water Energy Food

Intersections and interstices

On-ground examples

Knowledge, science & policy

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Key Points
The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here Water security will be a perennial issue for southern Australia Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are
equally, if not more important

We tend to deal with these issues in science and policy silos But at operational levels, the trade-offs are very real already What sorts of knowledge do we need,
and how might we get it?
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Drivers for change

Climate Water Energy Food Population, demography, consumption and
development pressures

Competition for land & water resources Resource depletion & degradation

Water
Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the worlds major food producing basins are effectively closed or already over-committed

Perths Annual Storage Inflow GL (1911-2005)

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Total annual* inflow** to Perth dams (GL) 100 0

1911 1917 1923 926 1932 1938 1944 947 1953 1959 962 1968 1974 1980 983 1989 1995 2001 0 1914 1920 1 1929 1935 1941 1 1950 1956 1 1965 1971 1977 1 1986 1992 1998 2 Annual inflow 1911 1974 (338 GL av) 1975 1996 (177 GL av) 1997 2004 (115 GL av)

Notes: * year is taken as May to April and labelled year is beginning (winter) of year ** inflow is simulated based on Perth dams in 2001 and 2005 is total until 3 August 2005

Water, energy, and GDP

Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia Water & GDP

Energy & GDP

Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and waterintensity of our economy

from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy

Climate-water-energy feedbacks
Saving water often uses more energy, and vice-versa Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water
E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more water-intensive

Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Profound technical challenges

1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2. To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate 3. To increase water productivity
decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship

1. To increase energy productivity

more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health

1. To develop more sustainable food systems

1. TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!

improving sustainability and resilience

Perspectives from the top of the APS

Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009:
Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:

By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental
policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers.
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http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm

On-ground examples
Energy Tree Cropping (CRC FFI) Murrumbidgee Irrigation Coliban Water

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Woody biomass energy

Learning from the Vikings:
Finland: same area and population as Victoria, tougher climate, shorter growing season, slower growth rates Private forestry thinnings etc produce 23% of Finlands primary energy, over 75% of thermal energy needs, and 20% of Finlands electricity In Sweden it is 20% (already higher than oil) with a target of 40%

Foran et al suggest woody biomass energy can fuel

Australia

WA already in the lead

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CRC Future Farm Industries energy tree crops

Developing an efficient supply chain for woody energy crops integrated into wheatbelt farming systems. Solving a bottleneck with the invention of a new harvesting head Water yield trade-offs minimal, because <10% of farm area, in low rainfall zones. Distance from mill important decentralised grid.

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Carbon plus wool, beef and sheep meat

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Forestry integrated with farming vs replacing farming

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Murrumbidgee Irrigation - a current

case
Bulk water distributor and seller in the MIA
$1B GVAP, and $7B value-add of food, wine and fibre production

100 year old irrigation & drainage network being modernised Piping and pressurisation will treble energy consumption
And hence greenhouse gas emissions

Options:
Biomass energy plant - 0.5m tonnes p.a. of ag & food process waste Solar thermal power plant on linear easements (C price-dependent) Conversion to biodiesel Carbon offsets through large scale tree planting

Turning a water company into a water, energy & carbon company

Liberating potential opportunities through a more integrated approach
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Coliban Water Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Note total emission s have trebled in five years

Coliban Water emissions per Megalitre

Note water supply emissions up tenfold in five years, now level with sewage treatment, which is stable

The Coliban Water Radar Screen

Balancing competing priorities: Social Technical Environmental Economic Political

Transition to carbon-neutral, energy-positive, water-smart rural landscapes

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The integration imperative

Managing whole landscapes
where nature meets culture (Simon Schama) landscapes are socially constructed beyond ecological apartheid NRM means people management engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour

Integration
- across issues e.g climate, energy, water, food, biodiversity - across scales agencies, governments, short-term, long-term - across the triple helix landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods

What sorts of knowledge do we need?

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Integrated metrics, or tools for integrating metrics Crude mud maps of generic trade-offs and win-wins Narratives that make the challenge more meaningful

Including international best practice case studies

How to articulate, quantify and evaluate CEW interactions, tradeoffs and synergies holistically Better CEW project assessment tools for new developments, and optimisation tools for improving them

 A Water, Energy & Land (WEL) R&D Corporation?

need to work with at least four Ministers & their agencies

How might we acquire that knowledge?

A CEW CRC? A Sustainability Commission with a research mandate?

sister agency to the Productivity Commission? or an expansion of its mandate? or completely independent and whole of government, like the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment?

Training in systems thinking and network leadership for bright, midlevel cohorts across govt & industry Commitment to some pilots e.g. greenfield suburbs, regional centres on the margins of the grid

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For more information

e.g. Paddock to Plate

Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy

www.triplehelix.com.a u