Data, Model and Decisions

Session Topics

Basic Probability Concepts

Discrete Random Variable

Continuous Random Variable

Sample Spaces

61

1
2

(i=1,2,n)={1 ,2 , ,n}

Events

Simple event:

Joint/Compound event

Ace

Visualizing Events

Ace

Not Ace

Total

Black
Red

2
2

24
24

26
26

Total

48

52

Special Events

Null Event

Complement of Event

Dependent or Independent Events

Contingency Table

Red Ace

52

Ace

Not an
Ace

Total

Red

24

26

Black

24

26

Total

48

52

Tree Diagram

Ace

Red
Cards

Not an Ace
Ace

Black
Cards
Not an Ace


1.

nAm

m/nnp
n
pAP(A)=p,
:

m A A

P A

2.

1P(A)0

P()=1

ABAB=

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)
1

0P()=0

P(

A)=1-P(A), A

3.
ABp(AB)=p(B)p(A)

6, 4,
1 B i
i

36
6 3
P( B1B2 )
3
P( B1 ) P( B2 )

P( B2 B1 )
100
3
10 5
P( B1 )
5
5
3 3

P( B1B2 ) P( B2 B1 ) P( B1 ) P( B1 ) P( B2 ) B1,B2
5 5

Computing Joint Probability

A B
P(A and B) =
A B

. P(Red Card Ace) =

2 Re d Aces
52 Total Number of Cards

1
26

Computing Compound Probability

ABA or B:
P( A B)

A B

P(Red Card or Ace)

4 Aces 26 Re d Cards 2 Re d Aces

28
7

52 Total Numberof Cards

52
13

Compound Probability Addition Rule

P(A1 or B1 ) = P(A1) +P(B1) - P(A1 and B1)

B1

B2

Total

A1

P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2

P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total

P(B1)

P(B2)

: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Computing Conditional Probability

B A

P(A B) = P( A and B)
P( B)

2 Re d Aces 1

P(Red Card Ace) =

4 Aces
2

Discrete Random Variable

:
:

Discrete Random Variable Example

: 2.

T
T
T

1/4 = .25

2/4 = .50

1/4 = .25

Discrete Probability Distribution

[ Xi, f (Xi) ]
Xi = ()
P(Xi) =

()

()
0 f(xi) 1
f(xi) = 1

Discrete Random Variable Measures

Expected Value

E (x ) = = xf (x )
Variance

Var(x ) = 2 = (x - )2f (x )

Important Discrete Probability Distribution

Binomial

Poisson


AA

Apn
n.

Binomial Probability Distributions

n
.
, .
p, .
.

Binomial Probability Distributions

n!
f ( x)
p xx (1 p ) ((nnxx))
x !( n x )!

f (x ) = n x

n =
p =

EXCEL
BINOMDIST(number_s, trials, probability_s, cumulative)

Poisson Distribution

.

.

Poisson Probability Distribution Function

xx

e
ff (( x
x))

x
x!!

f (x ) = x
=
e = 2.71828

Excel
POISSON (x, mean, cumulative)

 (l = 12)

The Normal Distribution

f(X)

The Mathematical Model

-(x- ) 2

f(x) =
f(X)
p

=
=
=
=
=

2 2

2p

X
3.14159; e = 2.71828

(-< X < )

Many Normal Distributions

The Standardized Normal Distribution

.00

.01

= 0 and = 1
.0478

.02

0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080

0.1 .0398 .0438 .047

8
0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871

Z = 0.12

0.3 .0179 .0217 .0255

Probabilities

Standardizing Example

6 .2 5
Z X
0 . 12

10

= 10

= 5 6.2 X

Z = 1

= 0 .12 Z

Example:P(2.9 < X < 7.1) = .1664

P(2.9 < X < 7.1)
z

2 .9 5

. 21
10

= 10

7 .1 5
. 21
10

= 1
.1664

.0832 .0832

2.9 5 7.1 X

-.21 0 .21 Z

Finding Z Values for Known Probabilities

Z

.1217

= 1

.00

.01

0.2

0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080

0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478

= 0 .31 Z

0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871

0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255

Finding X Values for Known Probabilities

X

= 10
.1217

= 5

? X

=1
.1217

= 0 .31 Z

X Z= 5 + (0.31)(10) = 8.1

EXCEL
1

1
1
2
3
4
NORMDIST

NORMDIST(x,mean,standard_
dev,cumulative)

NORMINV

NORMINV(probability,mean,
standard_dev)

NORMSDIST

0 1

NORMSDIST(z)

NORMSINV

0 1

NORMSINV(probability)

2
1
2


//

4~117

4-10

Exponential Distributions

P ( arrival time < X ) 1 - e -l x

l = 0.5

= 2.71828

l=
X =

f(X)

l = 2.0

The Uniform Probability Distribution

f (x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x < b

= 0 elsewhere
E(x) = (a + b)/2

Var(x) = (b - a)2/12

The End of Session 9