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To be Covered
Random Experiments, Sample Space and Sample Point, Events, Mutually Exclusive Events, Independent Events. Probability definition and theorems, Random variable definition. Classification of random variables.
To be Covered
Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf). Probability Density Function (pdf). Statistical Averages. Common Probability Distribution functions. Gaussian random variables.
Probability
Probability implies random experiments. A random experiment can have many possible outcomes; each outcome known as a sample point (a.k.a. elementary event) has some probability assigned. This assignment may be based on measured data or guestmates (equally likely is a convenient and often made assumption). Sample Space S : a set of all possible outcomes (elementary events) of a random experiment.
Finite (e.g., if statement execution; two outcomes) Countable (e.g., number of times a while statement is executed; countable number of outcomes) Continuous (e.g., time to failure of a component or signal)
Probability
Definition A probabilistic experiment, or random experiment, or simply an experiment, is the process by which an observation is made.
In probability theory, any action or process that leads to an observation is referred to as an experiment. Examples include:
Tossing a pair of fair coins. Throwing a balanced die.
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Probability
Definition The sample space associated with a probabilistic experiment is the set consisting of all possible outcomes of the experiment and is denoted by S.
The elements of the sample space are referred to as sample points. A discrete sample space is one that contains either a finite or a countable number of distinct sample points.
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Probability
Definition An event in a discrete sample space S is a collection of sample points, i.e., any subset of S. In other words, an event is a set consisting of possible outcomes of the experiment. Definition A simple event is an event that cannot be decomposed. Each simple event corresponds to one and only one sample point. Any event that can be decomposed into more than one simple event is called a compound event.
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Probability
Definition Let A be an event connected with a probabilistic experiment E and let S be the sample space of E. The event B of nonoccurrence of A is called the complementary event of A. This means that the subset B is the complement A of A in S. In an experiment, two or more events are said to be equally likely if, after taking into consideration all relevant evidences, none can be expected in reference to another.
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Probability
Probability
Axiomatic Approach
Analyzing the concept of equally likely probability, we see that three conditions must hold. 1. The probability of occurrence of any event must be greater than or equal to 0. 2. The probability of the whole sample space must be 1. 3. If two events are mutually exclusive, the probability of their union is the sum of their respective probabilities. These three fundamental concepts form the basis of the definition of probability.
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Probability
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Probability
Let A, B and C be events in the sample space, S, then
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If A and B are mutually exclusive events then the probability of A happening OR the probability of B happening is P(A) + P(B). P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Calculate the probability that a) either A or B will win b) either A or B or C will win c) none of these teams will win d) neither A nor B will win
Solution/s
c) P(none will win) = 1 P(A or B or C will win) d) P(neither A nor B will win) = 1 P(either A or B will win)
Independent Events
Events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. For example, if you throw a die and a coin, the number on the die does not affect whether the result you get on the coin. If A and B are independent events, then the probability of A happening AND the probability of B happening is P(A) P(B). P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
Example 1
If a dice is thrown twice, find the probability of getting two 5s.
Two sets of cards with a letter on each card as follows are placed into separate bags.
Sara randomly picked one card from each bag. Find the probability that: a) She picked the letters J and R. b) Both letters are L. c) Both letters are vowels.
Example 3
Two fair dice, one colored white and one colored red, are thrown. Find the probability that: a) the score on the red die is 2 and white die is 5. b) the score on the white die is 1 and red die is even
DEPENDENT EVENTS
Events are dependent if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another. For example, if you draw two colored balls from a bag and the first ball is not replaced before you draw the second ball then the outcome of the second draw will be affected by the outcome of the first draw.
Example 1
A purse contains four P50 bills, five P100 bills and three P20 bills. Two bills are selected without the first selection being replaced. Find P(P50, then P50)
Solution
There are four P50 bills. There are a total of twelve bills. P(P50) = 4/12 The result of the first draw affected the probability of the second draw. There are three P50 bills left. There are a total of eleven bills left. P(P50 after P50) = 3/11
P(P50, then P50) = P(P50) P(P50 after P50) = (4/12)x(3/11)=12/132 The probability of drawing a P50 bill and then a P50bill is
Dependent: Practice
A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue and 4 yellow marbles. Two marbles are drawn, but the first marble drawn is not replaced. a) Find P(red, then blue). b) Find P(blue, then blue)
Summary
For mutually exclusive events Pr(A or B) = Pr(AB) = Pr(A)+Pr(B) For independent events Pr(A and B)=Pr(A B) = Pr(A)Pr(B) In general, Pr(A B) = Pr(A)+Pr(B)-Pr(A B) Pr(A B) = Pr(A)+Pr(B)-Pr(A B) Pr(A B)=Pr(B|A)Pr(A) =Pr(A|B)Pr(B)
Solution: Denote sample space by S then, S = { 0, 1, 2, , N } Problem 2: A block is transmitted repeatedly over a noisy channel until an error-free block arrives at the receiver. Count the number of transmission required. Solution: Denote sample space by S then, S = { 1, 2, 3, , }
Problem 4: Measure the lifetime of a given computer memory chip in a specified environment.
Solution: Denote sample space by S then, S = { t: t 0 } = [ 0, )
where t denotes time.
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No active packets are produced Fewer than 10 transmission are required Less than t0 seconds elapse between message arrivals The chip lasts for more than 1000 hours but fewer than 5000 hour
4. The chip lasts for more than 1000 hours but fewer than 5000 hour