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Forex Market, Dynamics of Asset Money Market Liability Management Securities market Elements of Treasury Risk Exposure in Money Management Market Instruments VaR, Price Gap & Time Gap 2 Management in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
BANK ??
What is a Bank???
A financial Institution that is owned by stockholders, operates for a profit, and engages in lending activities
ASSETS
Cash in hand Balances with RBI Balances with other banks, money at call and notice Investments Advances Fixed Assets Others
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Liabilities of a bank may be in the form of demand or time deposits or borrowings or other miscellaneous items of liabilities. Liabilities of the banks may be towards the banking system (as defined under Section 42 of RBI Act, 1934) or towards others in the form of Demand and Time deposits or borrowings or other miscellaneous items of liabilities. Reserve Bank of India has been authorized in terms of Section 42 (1C) of the RBI Act, 1934 to classify any particular liability and hence for any doubt 6 regarding classification of a particular liability, the banks are advised to Management in Banks necessary clarification. approach RBI for Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
Demand Liabilities
Demand Liabilities
They include current deposits, demand liabilities portion of savings bank deposits, margins held against letters of credit/guarantees, balances in overdue fixed deposits, cash certificates and cumulative/recurring deposits, outstanding Telegraphic Transfers (TTs), Mail Transfer (MTs), Demand Drafts (DDs), unclaimed deposits, credit balances in the Cash Credit account and deposits held as security for advances which are payable on demand. Money at Call and Short Notice from outside the Banking System should be shown against liability to others.
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Time Liabilities
Time Liabilities
They include fixed deposits, cash certificates, cumulative and recurring deposits, time liabilities portion of savings bank deposits, staff security deposits, margin held against letters of credit if not payable on demand, deposits held as securities for advances which are not payable on demand, India Millennium Deposits and Gold Deposits.
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Form A
Memorandum to form 'A'- paid-up capital, reserves, time deposits i.e. of short term and Long term, CoD, NDTL, total CRR requirement etc.
Annexure A- foreign currency liabilities and assets Annexure B- investment in approved securities, investment in non-approved securities, memo items such as subscription to shares /debentures / bonds in primary market and subscriptions through private placement.
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SCBs
Return
(a) the amount of its demand and time liabilities and the amount of its borrowings from banks in India, classifying them into demand and time liabilities, (b) the total amount of legal tender notes and coins held by it in India, (c) the balance held by it at the Bank in India, (d) the balances held by it at other banks in current account and the money at call and short notice in India, (e) the investments (at book value) in Central and State Government securities including treasury bills and treasury deposit receipts, (f) the amount of advances in India, (g) the inland bills purchased and discounted in India and foreign bills purchased and discounted, 15
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Objectives of Treasury
Funding of investment Working Capital Management Short-term Investments Risk (hedging) and Forex Management Responsibility for the judicious use of banks name Asset & liability management Maintenance of statutory reserve requirements
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Middle office
Treasurer
Back-office
Forex activities
Derivatives
Treasury marketing
Marketing all the interest rate ,Foreign exchange & derivatives products
TREASURY PRODUCTS
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FORWARDS Refers to purchase or sale of currency on a future date. Treasury gets into forward contracts with customers (importers,exporters who do not want the currency risk) and simultaneously gets into reverse positions in the inter-bank market. Treasury may get into forward market to make speculative gains. Forward rates are arrived by adding the interest rate differential to the spot rate of low interest yielding and deducted from the spot rate of high interest yielding . However this is applicable in perfect markets where the currency is fully convertible. In India the demand for the currency influences the rate more than the interest differentials.
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SWAPS Combination of spot and forward transaction. Generally used for funding requirements, but also arbitrage opportunity. INVESTMENT OF FOREX SURPLUSES Surpluses arise due to variety of reasons Can invest in Inter-bank loans Short term investments Nostro accounts
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REDISCOUNTING OF FOREIGN BILLS Inter bank advance where treasury refinances bills purchased by another bank. Though it is an inter bank deal, RBI has asked the banks to include it in their credit portfolio.
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MONEY MARKET
Refers to raising and deployment of short term resources with maturity not exceeding 1 year It is sub-divided into CALL (over night placements), NOTICE ( < 14 days), TERM ( < 1 year typically 1 6 months) RBI has imposed restrictions on non- banks with a view to phase out their participation and make money market as a pure inter-bank market.
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Role
Intermediary Borrower / Issuer Borrowers / Issuers Market Makers Market Makers Borrowers / Issuers Lenders / Investors Investors Intermediaries Issuers
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Call Money
Participants Purpose Call Rates Operation Mechanism Location
Myeno M
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Treasury Bills
Issuer Investor Purpose Form and Size Types
Myeno M
Yields
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Commercial Papers
Definition Issuers Investors Features Maturity
Myeno M
Certificate of Deposits
Definition Issuers Subscribers Features Purpose Min size and denomination Term/maturity
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Myeno M
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Public Deposits
Purpose Participants Maturity Interest rate
Myeno M
Time Duration
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The difference in rates Fixed Market 12.00% - 10.00% = 2.00% Floating Market MIBOR+0.50% - (MIBOR + 0.25%) = 0.25%
Myeno M
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SECURITIES MARKET
Investment business is an important aspect of treasury. Involves buying and selling in securities market.
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES Treasury invests primarily in Gsecs to comply with the SLR (25%). SLR gradually reduced over the years. Gsecs issued by public debt office of RBI on behalf of government. Interest is fixed known as coupon rate but price keeps on changing hence yield keeps 35 on changing. Management in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
Government uses securities to fund its deficit. RBI uses Gsecs to control liquidity through open market operations. As the interest rates were falling, Gsecs were very attractive and banks invested to the tune of 41% as against the requirement of 25%. However now with increasing interest rates, apprehension is the norm. Gsec yields are used as benchmark for other bonds. CORPORATE DEBT PAPER Medium and long term bonds issued by corporate and financial inst. Yields higher than Gsec and they differ based on credit rating Fairly active secondary market, hence liquid.
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DEBENTURES AND BONDS Debt instruments secured or unsecured. Conventionally in India debentures issued by private sectors and bonds by public sector. Debentures are transferable only by registration whereas bonds are negotiable. Debentures governed by company law, bonds by contract act. Internationally no difference between the two. Debenture and bond holders have the prior legal claim ahead of preference share holders and equity shareholders. EQUITY Banks are allowed to invest in equities subject to a ceiling.(currently at 5 % of total assets)
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Treasury Management
Money Markets
Foreign Exchange
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Money Markets
Measures affecting Money Markets: Changes in CRR Changes in SLR Open Market Operations Bank Rate
Myr us ae T r
Repos
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Foreign Exchange
Funding avenues in Forex Market: Bonds Syndicate Credits Medium Term Loans Committed underwritten facilities
Myr us ae T r
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Probability
0.01 0.04 0.15 0.30 0.3 0.15 0.4 0.1
Expected change
E( V)
Standard deviation ( V)
- Rs 10,00,000 - Rs 15,00,000
Price Gap
Price Gap can be defined as the difference in the value (Price) of the assets and liabilities, which occurs due to changes in Interest rates.
Let us consider an example: XYZ bank issues a 5 year, 6% coupon rate bond at face value of Rs 1000 and invests in 5 year, 6% coupon rate bond at face value of Rs 500. Interest rate drops to 5% Market Price of Bond issued = 60/0.05 = Rs 1200. Market Price of the Bond Invested = 30/0.05 = Rs 600
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Time Gap
Time gap can be defined as the Gap occurring due to the difference in the maturity periods of assets and liabilities.
Let us consider an example: Mr. X deposits Rs. 1000 with a Bank at 6% rate of interest for a period of 1 year. Let us consider that the bank lends this money to Mr. Y at 11% rate of interest for 3 years. Thus at the time of payment to Mr. X after 1 year the bank has no money left with it since it has provided this to Mr. Y.
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Credit Risk
Market Risk
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Market Risks
Credit Risk Risks Market Risk
Exchange Risks Interest Rate Risks Liquidity Risks Equity Price Risk Commodity Risk
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Credit Risk
Counterparties may be unwilling or unable to fulfill obligations Losses due to credit risk can occur before actual default Credit risk is controlled by imposing
r us ae T r
credit limits
Credit Risk Market Risk
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Market Risk
Definition: Market Risk is the risk to the Banks earnings and capital due to changes in the market level of interest rates or prices of securities, foreign exchange and equities as well as the volatilities of those changes.
r us ae T r
Credit Risk
Market Risk
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Assets
1. Cash & Balances with RBI 2. Bal. With Banks & Money at Call and Short Notices 3. Investments 4. Advances 5. Fixed Assets 6. Other Assets
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Contingent Liabilities
I. II.
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It is a dynamic process of Planning, Organizing & Controlling of Assets & Liabilities- their volumes, mixes, maturities, yields and costs in order to maintain liquidity and NII. ALM is a system of matching cash inflows and outflows, and thus of liquidity management ALM is the act of Planning, Acquiring and Directing the 54 flow of funds through the bank
RBI DIRECTIVES
Issued draft guidelines on 10th Sept98. Final guidelines issued on 10th Feb99 for implementation of ALM w.e.f. 01.04.99. To begin with 60% of asset &liabilities will be covered; 100% from 01.04.2000. Initially Gap Analysis to be applied in the first stage of implementation. Disclosure to Balance Sheet on maturity pattern on Deposits, Borrowings, Investment & Advances w.e.f. 31.03.01 RBI has propose to switch over to Risk Based Supervision
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Objectives of ALM
Aimed at identification, measurement, monitoring and control of the market risk segment Its key objectives are: 1)stabilization of net interest income, 2)maximization of shareholders wealth, 3)managing liquidity The primary objective of an Asset Liability management system is liquidity risk management and interest rate risk management.
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Prerequisites of ALM
Developing a better understanding of ALM concepts, Introducing an ALM information system, Setting up ALM decision-making processes (ALM Committee/ALCO). Awareness for ALM in the Bank staff at all levels supportive Management & dedicated Teams. Insight into the banking operations, economic forecasting, computerization, investment, credit. Linking up ALM to future Risk Management Strategies.
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ALCO
Administers on a daily basis the componenets tht affect financial performance Develops, implements and manages bankss annual budget or profit plan and its risk management programme Its compositions depends on: - size of the organisation - magnitude of operations - business mix - need for response to market dynamics 60
Composition of ALCO
Head of Committee Head of Committee CEO/CMD/ED CEO/CMD/ED
Invitee
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ALM Process
Efficiency of ALM process depends on ALM MIS and ALM structure Its primary goal is to identify risk parameters It takes care of foll. Risks
Liquidity Interest risk Currency Equity Commodity
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ALM Process
Risk Identification Risk Measurement Risk Management Risk Tolerance And Limit Levels
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Significance of ALM
Volatility Deregulation of financial system changed the dynamics of financial markets. Such free economic environment are reflected in Interest Rate Structure, Money Supply, Exchange Rate and Price Level Product Innovations & Complexities Rapid innovation take place in financial products of the bank. They have an impact on the risk profile of the bank Regulatory Environment 66 Management Recognition
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Scope of ALM
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Liquidity risk
Liquidity risk is often related to banks inability to pay to its depositors It leads to distress pricing of assets and liabilities A bank with high degree of liquidity risk has 2 options - to borrow funds from money market at high rates - to increase its deposit rates Liquidity risk has strong co-relation to interest risk and credit risk.
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Funding Avenues
To satisfy funding needs, a bank must perform one or a combination of the following: Dispose off liquid assets Increase short term borrowings Decrease holding of less liquid assets Increase liability of a term nature Increase Capital funds
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a. b. c. d. e.
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TIME BUCKETS
All Assets & Liabilities to be reported as per their maturity profile into 8 maturity Buckets: i. 1 to 14 days ii. 15 to 28 days iii. 29 days and up to 3 months iv. Over 3 months and up to 6 months v. Over 6 months and up to 1 year vi. Over 1 year and up to 3 years vii. Over 3 years and up to 5 years viii. Over 5 years
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1. 1 to 14 days
2. Depends 3. Interim Cash flows under respectve maturity buckts 4. - 3 to 5 yrs - over 5 yrs 5. Over 5 yrs 6. Respective maturity Buckets
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1 1 1 Loans BPLR Linked Others Total Inflow Gap - - - - - Cumulative Gap - - - - - - - - .- .11 . . . - . . Gap % to Total Outflow 11 . -111- 82 Capital Liab-fixed Int Liab-floating Int Others Total outflow Investments Loans-fixed Int Loans - floating
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STRATEGIEScontd
To meet the mismatch in any maturity bucket, the bank has to look into taking deposit and invest it suitably so as to mature in time bucket with negative mismatch. The bank can raise fresh deposits of Rs 300 crore over 5 years maturities and invest it in securities of 1-29 days of Rs 200 crores and rest matching with other out flows.
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Maturity Pattern of Select Assets & Liabilities of A Bank Liability/Assets Rupees (In Cr) In Percentage
I. Deposits 15200 100 a. Up to 1 year 8000 52.63 b. Over 1 yr to 3 yrs 6700 44.08 c. Over 3 yrs to 5 yrs 230 1.51 d. Over 5 years 270 1.78 II. Borrowings 450 100 a. Up to 1 year 180 40.00 b. Over 1 yr to 3 yrs 00 0.00 c. Over 3 yrs to 5 yrs 150 33.33 d. Over 5 years 120 26.67 III. Loans & Advances 8800 100 a. Up to 1 year 3400 38.64 b. Over 1 yr to 3 yrs 3000 34.09 c. Over 3 yrs to 5 yrs 400 4.55 d. Over 5 years 2000 22.72 Iv. Investment 5800 100 a. Up to 1 year 1300 22.41 b. Over 1 yr to 3 yrs 300 5.17 88 c. Over 3 yrs to 5 yrs 900 15.52 Management 5 years d. Over in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An 3300 56.90
LRM is management of Balance sheet and ratios provide a direction to this. Some of the ratios are and what is desirable from liquidity point of view: - Loans and advances to Total Assets(60% to 65%) - Loans and advances to Core deposits(70% to 75%) - Large liabilities to Earning assets(50%) - Purchased funds to Total Assets(10% to 15%) - Cash Ratio(30%) 89 - Loan in Banks Net loans(1%) Management losses toPresented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
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Earnings at Risk
Outcome of application of a notional interest rate shock in the interest segment of a bank or a financial institution to give a stress tested earning position. Basel Norms suggest: - Standardized interest rate shock of 2% - Danger incase of economic value below 20% of tier I and tier 2 capital.
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Earnings at Risk
Calculations - Classification - Multiply by the remaining months of maturity - Sum up the totals - Find the net product - Compute the risk or fall based on 1% shock.
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Components
Price Risk Basis Risk Embedded Option Risk
s ks Rt ekr a M i
GAP STATEMENT
MATURITY BUCKET DAYS - 1 - 1DAYS 11 1 D- 1MONTHS 1 OVER M- MONTHS OVER - YEAR M OVER YR- YRS OVER YR-YRS
MATURING ASSETS MATURING (CASH LIABILITIES(CA CUMULATIVE INFLOW) SH OUTFLOW) GAP GAP NIL 1 1 - 1 11 1 - - - - - - - -
1 1
1.
Gap for 1-14 & 15-28 Days is within limits. It does not exceed 20% of Outflows.
2. Not liquid up to 3 years horizon. Severe liquidity problems 3 months on Wards. 3. Short term deposits are funding investments 1-3 yrs and 3-5 yrs. This is Creating liquidity 97 crunch.
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Rate Sensitivity
An Asset / Liability is classified as rate sensitive if Within the Time Interval in consideration there is a cash flow The interest rate resets / re-prices during the interval RBI changes the interest rate It is prepayable or withdrawable before the stated maturity
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Classification of Liabilities as Risk Sensitive Liabilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Capital, Reserves & Surplus Current Deposits Saving Bank Deposits Term Deposits and Certificate of Deposit Borrowings - Fixed Borrowings - Floating Borrowings - Zero Coupon Other Liabilities and Provisions i) Bills Payable ii) Inter-Office Adjustment Non-Sensitive Non-Sensitive Rate Sensitivity Non-Sensitive Non-Sensitive Sensitive - To the Extent of Interest paying (Core) portion. Sensitive Sensitive Sensitive Sensitive
iii) Provisions Non-Sensitive Management in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
Balances with RBI Balances with other Banks i) Current Account ii) Money at call and Short Notice, Term Deposits and other placements
Investments I) Fixed Rate / Zero Coupon ii) Floating Sensitive Sensitive Non-Sensitive Sensitive
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Shares / Units of Mutual Funds Advances & Investments I) Bills Purchased and Discounted
Management Assets ii) Fixed in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An Non-Sensitive
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RSA = Rs. 100 Cr (Within 1 yr Maturity and earning 15% p.a.) RSL = Rs. 60 Cr. (Within 1 yr Maturity and raised at 9% p.a.)
RSA > RSL GAP is +ve Cumulative GAP = RSA RSL = Rs. 40 Cr 103 NII = 15 Cr 5.4 Cr = 9.6 Cr Management in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
Example contd.
If interest rate increase by 1% Position at Repricing RSA RSL Amount Rate of Interest Interest earnings / Cost Rs. 16 Cr Rs. 6 Cr
NII = 16 Cr 6 Cr = Rs. 10 Cr NII increased by 0.4 Cr with 1% rise in Interest rate Income = GAP I = Rs. 40 Cr * 0.01 = Rs. 0.4 Cr
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Example contd.
If interest rate decrease by 1% Position at Repricing RSA RSL Amount Rate of Interest Interest earnings / Cost Rs. 14 Cr Rs. 4.8 Cr
NII = 14 Cr 4.8 Cr = Rs. 9.2 Cr NII decreased by 0.4 Cr with 1% rise in Interest rate Income = GAP I = Rs. 40 Cr * 0.01 = Rs. 0.4 Cr
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Increases Increases Decreases Decreases Increases Increases Decreases Decreases Increases Increases
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Duration Analysis
It is used to measure Interest Rate Sensitivity of an Asset / Liability It is the Weighted Avg. Maturity of all the cash flows. Formula:
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Example
Five Year Bond Par Value = Rs. 10,000 , Coupon rate = 8%, YTM = 10%, Maturity = 5 Years
Time Cash Flow PV Multiplier 1 2 3 4 5 800 800 800 800 10800 0.909091 0.826446 0.751315 0.683013 0.620921 PV 727.27 661.16 601.05 546.41 6,705.95 9,241.84 Weighted PV 727.27 1,322.31 1,803.16 2,185.64 33,529.75 39,568.14
Duration = 39,568.14 / 9,241.84 = 4.2814 Yrs 109 Management in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
Static Gap Analysis Management in Banks Presented by Duration Gap Ritu Madan & An Namrata Padhye, Analysis
re n t I
Cap on inter-bank borrowings Purchased funds vis--vis liquid assets Core deposits vis--vis Core Assets Duration of liabilities and investment portfolio
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Consider an Example
Assets Liabilities
100 Crores, 5 years, Fixed rate loan@10% 90 Crores, 30 days deposit @6%
Equity 10 Crores
Total
100 Crores
Total
100 Crores
NII = 10 Crores 5.4 Crores = 4.6 Crores NIM = (10 crores-5.4 crores)/100 Crores = 4.6%
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Liabilities
90 Crores, 30 days deposits @8% Equity 10 Crores
Total
100 Crores
Total
100 Crores
NII = 10 Cr 7.2 Cr = 2.8 Cr NIM = (10 Cr-7.2 Cr)/100 Cr = 2.8% Change In NII &NIM = 1.6Cr, -1.6%
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Borrow $1000 from US Market Interest rate 3%(30 days) Convert into Rupees i.e. Rs. 44000
Invest the Rs. 44000 in Indian Money market instrument interest rate 2% (30 days)
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Example contd
After 30 days Exchange rate Rs 42/$1 After 30 days Receive the payment of $1000, and use it to pay off the Principal. Interest to be paid - $1000 * 0.03 = $30 = Rs 30 *42 = Rs 1260 Interest earned Rs 44000 * 0.02 = Rs. 880 Cost of the Hedge = 1260 880 = Rs 380 Loss if not hedged = (44-42) * 1000 = Rs. 2000
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Bank A
Bank B
Floating Rate
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10 11 10.5 0 9.5
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With Hedging
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Defensive
Offensive
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Taking into account the -- size, complexity of operations, relevance to the financial sector, need to ensure less risk and the need for having an efficient delivery mechanism
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APPROACH OF RBI
With the commencement of the banking sector reforms in the early 1990s, RBI has been consistently upgrading the Indian banking sector by adopting international best practices. The approach to reforms is by having clarity about the destination, deciding on the sequence and modulating the pace of reforms to suit Indian conditions
BASEL I
The current risk-based capital adequacy rules, adopted in 1989, are based on the International Basel Capital Accord of 1988 (Basel I). Basel I requires all banks to maintain a minimum total risk-based capital ratio of 8 percent.
India implemented the Basel I framework with effect from 1992-93 which was, however, spread over 3 years
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Limitations of Basel I
Insufficiently sensitive to risk (broad categories) Very limited account of risk mitigation To lend to poorer quality credits No incentive structure to improve risk measurement and risk management practice
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Keeping in mind following risk -- Credit risk , Market risk & Operational risk implementing Basel II with effect from March 31, 2007
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Operational risk the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, and systems, or from 131 external Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An Management in Banks events
Credit Risk
Basel II places emphasis on improving the management and measurement of credit risk The measurement of credit risk implies assessing the borrowers creditworthiness. A loan should, therefore, be priced to reflect how much risk it involves.
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EL =
1.What is the probability of a counterparty going into default? 2. How much will customer owe the bank in the case of default? (Expected Exposure) 3.How much of that exposure is the bank going to lose?
Probability of Default
PD X
EaD X
LGD
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Standardised Approach
New risk weights (0%; 20%; 50%; 100%, 150%) used for assessing capital required. Uses External Ratings (where available) Unrated weighted at 100% 35% weight for claims secured by Residential Mortgage 100% weight for claims secured by Commercial Mortgage
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x x
Exposure at Default
Standardised =
External Rating
x Regulatory
Imposed
Regulatory Imposed
IRB Foundation
Proprietary Rating
x Regulatory
Imposed
Regulatory Imposed
IRB Advanced
Proprietary Rating
x Proprietary
Severity
Proprietary Exposure
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The 3 Approaches
Standardised Approach Foundation IRB (Internal Ratings Based) Approach Advanced IRB (Internal Ratings Based) Approach
- One size fits all - No capital incentives for better Credit Risk Management
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Operational Risk
It is defined as the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, and systems, or external events and Banks use their own methodology for assessing exposure to operational risks.
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Operational Risk
Operational Risk (OR) will add to banks regulatory capital requirements Operational risk is not restricted to banks, its present in all organisations including yours
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PILLAR 3
Market Discipline Requirements
Specific disclosure requirements would be applicable to all banks Banks would have to disclose in their public financial reports or in regulatory reports on a quarterly basis, their risk management policies for each separate risk area and their exposures to credit and other types of risks. This would allow shareholders and debt holders to assess a banks capital structure, risk exposures, risk assessment processes, and capital adequacy.
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2004: Basel II
Three Pillars
Menu of Approaches
Broad Brush
Comparison ..
Basel I
Minimum Regulatory = Capital Capital (Credit & Market) Risk adjusted assets
Basel II
Minimum Regulatory = Capital Capital Credit + Operational + Market risk risk risk
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CONCLUSION
Future presents both challenges and opportunities Enhance the financial performance and raise the visibility of treasury Increased use of automation and outsourcing and relying on a more versatile staff As all policies with respect to Basel need to be considered within the broader context of the banks own business strategy. Banks need risk management packages not only to adhere Basel II ,also for effective risk management and mitigation, gain competitive advantage, develop the robust system, transparency, and cost reduction through detailed data analysis
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Forex Market, Dynamics of Asset Money Market Liability Management Securities market Elements of Treasury Risk Exposure in Money Management Market Instruments VaR, Price Gap & Time Gap 150 Management in Banks Presented by Namrata Padhye, Ritu Madan & An
BANK ??
THANK YOU
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