BANGLADESH CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN 2009

Paper prepared by

Md. Shamsul Arefin

Joint Secretary Ministry of Public Administration Government of Bangladesh

57th Senior Staff Course BPATC, Savar, Dhaka.

M. Shamsul Arefin

21 April 2012

Objectives of the Study

What are the climate changes?

What are the consequences for Bangladesh?

What climate change-induced impact is most vulnerable for Bangladesh ? How can the potential effects of climate change be factored into policy making, and What adaptation measures for Bangladesh are most feasible?
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Geographic Features of the Country

Geographic location made Bangladesh one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Interface of two different environments- Bay of Bengal to the south and the Himalayas to the north. Only about 10% of the country is hardly 1 meter above the Sea Level, and one-fifth area is under tidal excursions. Have too much water in monsoon and little water in winter.

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Bangladesh:

Climate Change Scenario

Bangladesh is on the threshold of disaster. About 23% of the countrys area is vulnerable due to sea level rise. If the water level rises by one meter, 30 million people will be displaced by 2030

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Bangladesh: Climate Change Scenario

Northwest will be affected by drought indeed, already started Agricultural production will reduce by 40% by 2050 impact on food security Fishery and forestry will be affected Wide ranging adverse impacts on human health and well-being A serious challenge to development and poverty reduction
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IPCC 4th Assessment about Bangladesh

Average temperature has registered an increasing trend of about 1C in May and 0.5C in November during the 23 year period from 1985 to 2008.

More devastating floods have taken place during, 1988, 1998, 2002, and 2004 Cyclones & its intensity have noted to increase since 1970. Salt water from the Bay of Bengal is reported to have penetrated 100 km or more inland.

The precipitation decline and droughts has resulted in the drying up of wetlands & severe degradation of ecosystems.
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Climate
Climate is simply the weather that is dominant or normal in a particular region; the term climate includes temperature, rainfall and wind patterns. Geography, global air and sea currents, tree cover, global temperatures and other factors influence the climate of an area, which causes the local weather.
However, large changes have been very gradual over huge time periods. The humans are now, due to pollution from industrial processes and wasteful lifestyles directly influencing the climate of the earth. Human influence is now believed to be changing the climate much faster than occurring in the past under natural processes.
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What is climate change?

Climate change is the variation in global or regional climates over time. It reflects changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) or, more recently, human activities. In recent climate change often refers only to changes in modern climate, including the rise in average surface temperature known as global warming. The term is also used with a presumption of human causation, as mentioned in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
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Greenhouse Gases
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1750, one of these greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, has increased by over 30% and is now at a higher concentration in the atmosphere than it has been for many thousands of years. Chemical analysis of the carbon demonstrates that this increase is due largely to the burning of fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas. These are consumed mainly through industry and transportation Nitrous oxide and methane are also produced by human activity are thickening the natural layer of atmosphere. This leads to a warming of the earth, commonly known as Global Warming.
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GHG
Gases

that trap heat in the atmosphere are called greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases are those that can absorb and emit infrared radiation. In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide
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Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming The Greenhouse Effect is a natural process through which
various gasses and water vapour in the atmosphere affects the earths climate. The earths climate is driven by this continuous flow of energy from the sun, mainly in the form of visible light. About 30% is immediately scattered back into space, but most of the remaining 70% passes down through the atmosphere to warm the earths surface. Being much cooler than the sun, the earth does not give out energy as visible light. Instead, it emits heat in the form of infrared or thermal radiation.

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The Greenhouse Effect & Climate Change

A T M O S P H E R E

SUN

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GHG & Climate Change

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing GHGs affect the climate system

World average temperature has risen relatively fast over the past 30 years
Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating Many temperature-sensitive processes have changed over the past two decades
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Global Warming
The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere that are liable for Global Warming.

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Consequences of Climate Change

Spread of dengue and other diseases Heavy rains & severe draughts Floods, storms, & hurricanes Changed rainfall patterns Warming and aridity

Loss of biodiversity
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Climate Change Its Impacts

Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats of our time Glaciers are melting Sea level is rising

Cyclones, tornados, floods, droughts are becoming more frequent and intense as well
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Climate-induced Displacement and Migration in Bangladesh

Over 10,00,000 people are displaced by riverbank erosion from 1971 till 2005. Floods and droughts make many more Most displaced migrate internally Dhaka - already overpopulated (14 million) is the major destination
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VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

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Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges

In recent years, cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal are more frequent with high winds of over 150 km. per hour and storm surge up to 7 meters Cyclones of 1970 killed over 5 lakh and 1991 around 1.5 lakh
Source: ISDR report 2007

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Recent Sidr and Aila

Sidr

The speed of Hurricane was 200 km/ h accompanied by storm surges and severely damaged 6 districts of south-western Bangladesh This caused high deaths & wounds, made colossal damage of crops and livestock, demolished houses, disrupted communications and washed away over 380 km of embankments Aila hits 26 districts in the South, affecting 9 million people, caused production loss of about us$ 99 million Widespread damage of Sunderban- world heritage resources

Aila

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Forest resources and depletion of bio-diversity

The bio-diversity of the Sundarbans has been under threat due to recurrent natural calamities like storms, cyclones and tornadoes, tidal surges and sea level rise.
Source : IPCC report 2006

Status of Inland Threatened Species of Bangladesh WB report 2008

Group Fisheries Amphibians Reptiles Birds Mammals Total 21

(Total number of Threatened living species) 266 54 22 8 109 58 388 41 110 40 895 201 M. Shamsul Arefin 21 April 2012

Salinity engulfing more Agricultural land

Average water salinity increased over 172% from 1980s

Gopalgonj, Tongipara and Narail experience 200-400% increase More than 1.70 lakh ha agricultural land affected by salt World Bank predicts more than 90 km intrusion landward at western part of Sundarbans during dry season.
Source: WB report on environment 2009

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Sea-level Rise

Sea-level rise by one metre, expected to take place by the current century, will devour the whole of the Sundarbans. If the Sea level rise is higher than currently expected, and coastal polders are not strengthened and/or new one built, six to eight million people will be displaced by 2050 and would have to be resettled.

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Climate Change and Food Production

There is large potential of increasing productivity of crops, fisheries and livestock despite climate change uncertainties and production challenges. If Setting up of Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ). Efficiently managing fisheries and livestock resources & of improved breeds and brood fish. Restructuring of crops and cropping pattern
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Bangladesh Climate Change Action Plan Based on the following six pillars: 1.Food security, social protection and health; 2. Comprehensive disaster management;

3. Infrastructure development;
4. Research and knowledge management; 5. Mitigation and low-carbon development; and 6. Capacity building and institutional development.
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Climate Change Action Plan

Food security, social protection and health

To ensure that the poorest and most vulnerable in society, including women and children, are protected from climate change Food security, safe housing, employment and access to basic services.

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Comprehensive Disaster Management

To further strengthen the country's already proven disaster management systems to deal with increasingly frequent and severe natural calamities.

Degradation of land, water bodies, forests, biodiversity loss, arsenic contamination in ground water, surface water pollution, air pollution, salinity interference in coastal zone are a major concern of climate change in Bangladesh

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Infrastructure
The existing assets (e.g., coastal and river embankments) are well-maintained and fit-for-purpose and
The urgently needed infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters and urban drainage) is to be put in place to deal with the impacts of climate change.
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Research
To predict scale and timing of climate change impacts on different sectors of the economy;

Ensure that Bangladesh is networked with the latest global thinking on climate change.
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Mitigation & Low-Carbon Development Bangladesh is the lowest energy consuming country ( 170 Kwh) per-capita. But at the same time, we are inefficient in lowing carbon emission. Thats why steps to be taken to reduce the carbon emission

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Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening

To enhance the capacity of government ministries and agencies, civil society and the private sector to meet the challenge of climate change.

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Drought

Cyclone

Storm surge, salinity

Pictures of Impact of Climate Change

32 Flood Water logging

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21 April 2012 Bank erosion Bank Erosion

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Drought, Floods, Cyclones likely to intensify in future due to climate change.

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Risk of Climate Change

Frequent floods/droughts/cyclones/storm leading to disasters

surges etc

Salinity intrusion, river bank erosion, temperature variability, erratic precipitation etc. Climate Change also has severe social impacts that will cause internal and external migration of displaced community

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An Innocent Victim

Bangladesh is an innocent victim of adverse impacts of Climate Change. To manage the impacts, Bangladesh has taken a two-pronged approach. It has been vigorously participating in the international negotiations process for realisation of the goals under the Bali Action Plan as well as preparing itself at home for necessary domestic action.

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 Government

Steps

BCCSAP 2009 has laid out Bangladeshs possible response to impacts of climate change. BCCSAP contains 6 themes and 44 programme areas.

Establishment of Climate Change Trust Fund with an allocation of US$ 100 m for this year Implementation is ongoing.
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Creation of Fund

The government has identified an urgent need for US$ 10 billion over 5 years. This fund is mostly expected to be raised through bilateral and multi-lateral sources, while the government will also make possible contribution.

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Conclusion

Bangladesh has already developed salinity tolerant, flood tolerant and shorter maturity varieties of rice. This will help in the short run.

Extensive agricultural extension services are needed to make these varieties available to the farmers. But this is only the beginning: more varieties and appropriate ecosystem-based agricultural system need to be developed. Extreme events are unstoppable and we cannot ignore it. Climatic incidence cannot be altered but its adverse impact can be minimized.

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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