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Qualitative methods of sales forecasting rely less on data, and much more on the opinions and experiences of the people involved in the forecasting pro There are three common approaches cess
Delphi method Panel method Scenario planning
Delphi method
Perhaps the best-known method for generating a forecast using experts. Rather than getting experts to meet face-to-face, the chosen experts are sent a survey or questionnaire (by post or email). Each expert completes the survey without reference to any other contributor disadvantages- The time-consuming nature of the survey process (potentially costly as well) - The way in which the experts are chosen (who choses and why?) - Whether some experts are more expert than others! whose opinions should be given most weight (if anyone)
Panel method
This method of sales forecasting is a specialised form of focus group (remember that from consumer market research?) The panels members meet face-to-face and discuss openly their views on the forecasts required, with the aim of reaching a consensus. disadvantages? - Some experts will shout louder than others, or be more forceful in expressing their opinions - The panel approach encourages a quick resolution, rather than a more reflective approach (which might lead to a better quality sales forecast)
Scenario planning
This method is popular where the sales forecast is subject to a lot of uncertainty. This is often true when a sales forecast is intended to cover a long time period (e.g. 3+ years) or where there are inherent risks in the demand for the product or market being forecasted.
Scenarios are not intended to produce a consensus. Rather, it is about identifying the likely or possible scenarios for different sales outcomes, and then coming up with a plan for how the business would respond for the least desirable scenarios. Scenario planning is linked, therefore, to contingency planning
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