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(A 3-year Closed-end Equity Scheme with an Automatic Conversion into an Open-Ended Scheme upon Maturity)
Value investing
A timeless principal Focused on the fundamentals
Value
Value Investing Focuses on past performance of the company & the current fundamentals Value investors look for bargains, or stocks that are trading at a discount to their usual valuation
Growth*
Growth Investing Investing in stocks with high future growth potential Growth investors believe in buying stocks with above-average earnings growth, no matter what the price
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield - Warren Buffet
* Growth style of investing has been perceived as glamour investing
Few quotes
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. By Warren Buffet
I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money. By Will Rogers
Value Investing is solely concerned with getting the most profit at the lowest cost. Anonymous
Creation of value
Markets can be short-sighted
May ignore long term value creation
Otherwise, How do you explain sharp movements in prices based on quarterly results
Company could be in a matured stage, leading to nominal growth Some stocks are just ignored without any reason whatsoever
There are innumerable instance in the past that should give confidence on
Reliance Energy
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
S-07 A-07 A-07 S-07 N-07 N-07 D-07 D-07 D-07 J-07 J-07 J-07 O-07 O-07 J-08
For most part 2006 & 2007 stock under performed the market Stock was a strong Value pick as cash on book was to the
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; Stocks referred above are illustrative and are not recommended by Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund / Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these stocks.
Neyveli Lignite
300 250
Stock Price in Rs.
As most of the power stocks Neyveli Lignite also under performed the market for most part of 2006 - 2007 Stock was a strong Value pick as was trading close to its book value Once the sector got re-rated in later part of 2007, Neyveli was among the top performers
S-06
A-06
N-06
D-06
A-07
A-07
S-07
N-07
O-06
O-07
D-07
J-07
J-07
J-07
F-07
M-07
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; Stocks referred above are illustrative and are not recommended by Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund / Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these stocks.
M-07
J-08
SAIL
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
S-06 A-06 N-06 D-06 A-07 A-07 S-07 N-07 O-06 O-07 D-07 J-07 J-07 J-07 F-07 M-07 M-07 J-08
During steels down cycle of 2005 & 06, SAIL was a strong Value buy on account of captive iron ore mines & coal facilities Once up cycle for the sector started, stock was among the top performers
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; Stocks referred above are illustrative and are not recommended by Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund / Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these stocks.
Chennai Petroleum
500 450 400
Stock Price in Rs.
Chennai Petro is fundamentally among the most attractive oil refining companies During large part of 2006-07, with PE of 4-5 stock was trading at significant discount to peers & market Due to rising crude oil prices Gross Refinery Margins saw a significant upturn leading to significant re-rating of the stock
S-06
A-06
N-06
D-06
A-07
A-07
S-07
N-07
O-06
O-07
D-07
J-07
J-07
J-07
F-07
M-07
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; Stocks referred above are illustrative and are not recommended by Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund / Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these stocks.
M-07
J-08
Companies having high level of Cash & Liquid Investments compared to market cap
Companies that reward investors with high & regular dividends
Fertilizer Sector
Current Scenario
ZERO domestic capacity addition since last one decade
Stable cash flow aiding diversification into other sectors leading to earnings stability
Chemicals for vertical & horizontal integration Other growing sectors like shipping, real estate etc.
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
PE 9.20 7.30
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Improved Gas Availability scenario may reduce the dependence on high cost imported feedstock.
Policy for Fertilizers under cabinet consideration to decide :
Policy for Greenfield/Brownfield Expansion
Pricing Policy refinements Further Issuance of Fertilizer Bonds
* CDU represents Crude Distillate Unit I.e. refining capacities Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Indian refineries are trading at a discount to their replacement cost on account of their losses in marketing activities.
With mounting marketing losses, we expect the government to take corrective actions in order to reduce these losses Indian oil marketing companies have a good mix of refining & marketing assets and they are aggressively expanding refining capacities
On back of rising crude oil prices & rising GRMs this would act as the main trigger for value unlocking
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research
Paper Sector
Current Scenario
Low per capita consumption of paper = Tremendous growth opportunity
Rising literacy levels will further push the demand up
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Huge Capex finally paying off as evident in financial results. Industry looking for international acquisition and exposure.
Shipping Sector
Current Scenario
Huge potential for trade growth
Asia accounts for 59% dry bulk imports with India being among the major consumer
Demand for oil, gas & coal for energy requirements will drive the shipping logistics in the Indian market
Industry is on a capacity addition spree Freight rates have corrected sharply & may start moving upwards in near future Asset prices of the ships have improved or remained firm despite the weak freight rates displaying buoyant long term outlook
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Indian Shipping Sector in process of being re-rated along the line of global peers. India and China have increased their dominance on the international trade as against developed countries. Recent downturn in shipping cycle beckons another upswing in the shipping cycle leading to increase in stock prices.
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research
Cement Sector
Current Scenario
Significant slow down in growth of cement consumption
Currently the growth rate is below the 3 Month Moving Average
High base has caught up with cement demand growth
Profitability hit due to rising fuel costs despite high cement prices
International coal prices have increased from USD 40 per ton in Jan 06 to over USD 100 per ton in Jan 08, an increase of over 150% During the same period cement prices have moved from Rs. 165 per bag to Rs. 225 per bag, an increase of 36%
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Anticipated supply has resulted in stocks being quoted below current Replacement Cost
Sugar Sector
Current Scenario
Sugar exports were banned by the Government for nearly six months from July07, due to which supply in the domestic markets increased
As a result, sugar prices fell from the high of nearly Rs.18/kg to Rs.14/kg and below during the same period. Companies especially in U.P. suffered more on account of higher sugarcane prices.
Major sugar companies are trading almost at par with their replacement cost, Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research thus providing attractive valuation opportunities
Company Bajaj Hidustan Balrampur Chini Triveni Engineering Enterprise Value (EV) 6,116 3,262 3,885 Replacement Cost 5,233 2,922 3,413 EV / RC 1.17 1.12 1.14
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
With the exports ban being removed we expect higher exports in Financial Year 08-09, thus an improvement in domestic sugar prices.
Any reduction in sugar cane prices for Uttar Pradesh based companies would drive their profitability. Diversification into ethanol and power would help in improving the overall performance of the companies.
Attractive valuations of around 10x FY08 Vs Market PE of around 20x FY08E earnings
Company Glaxo Aventis Pfizer Novartis Wyeth EPS Mar08 / Dec07 49.10 66.71 114.12 29.34 43.49 P/E Mar08 / Dec07 17.31 13.64 5.70 11.11 10.14 P/E Mar09 / Dec08 15.26 11.95 13.83 10.40 9.26 Dividend Yield (%) 3.76 3.52 2.31 3.07 6.80 Cash / Mkt Cap (%) 23.37 22.99 35.19 13.71 23.58
Source Bloomberg; BSLMF Internal Research; The stocks indicated above are illustrative & may or may not form part of portfolio.
Portfolio Low P/E Low P/BV Low P/E & Low P/BV BSE 200 Index
Source Cline; BSLMF Internal Research.
Fundamental Traits Performance (%) P/E P/BV 2007 6.15 132 1.17 101 7.74 1.31 110 56
Model Portfolio
We have created a model portfolio of 30 stocks. Not more than 7% to be allocated to each stock.
Fundamental Traits:
An Return on capital employed (ROCE) of 16. Return on Equity (ROE) of 24. Price to Equity (P/E) of 10. Price to Book Value (P/BV) of 1.50. EV/EBIDTA of 9.70
Performance (%)
(As on 31st Jan 2008)
NAV
( 31st Jan 2008)
1 Year
Fund Benchmark Fund
3 Year
Benchmark Fund
5 Year
Benchmark
Since Inception
Fund Benchmark
31.86
47.25
36.93
59.10
42.23
40.89
23.24
31.86
42.42
36.93
46.51
42.23
42.43
38.73
38.42
45.75
36.63
55.48
49.39
52.64
48.13
31.86
43.56
36.93
49.67
42.23
40.87
17.05
Performance has been calculated on NAV of growth plans. The returns for less than a year are in absolute terms & for more than a year its CAGR. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Sales load not considered for computation of returns.
Scheme features
Type of Scheme Investment Objective Asset Allocation*: Equity & Equity Related Instruments 85% to 100% Fixed Income Secuties (including money market instruments) New Fund Offer Price Date of opening of NFO Date of closing of NFO Plans / Options Available Subscriptions Load Structure (including SIP): Entry Load As per SEBI circular dated April 4, 2006 ref SEBI/IMD/Cir No. 1/64057/06, close end schemes are not permitted to charge entry load. Hence the scheme being close ended, no entry load is charged during the new fund offer period. Nil** (for all redemptions/switch outs made during the specified redemption period until the scheme remains closed-end).**Investors offering units for repurchase/ switch out during the specified redemption periods before maturity of the scheme/conversion of scheme into open ended scheme will be charged balance proportionate unamortized issue expenses on the applicable NAV. BSE 200 Ajay Argal 0% to 15% Rs. 10 per unit 17th January 2008 1st March 2008 Dividend & Growth; Dividend plan will offer Payout & Reinvestment facility Rs.5,000/- and in multiple of Re. 1 thereafter per application under each plan (during the NFO period) A 3-year Closed-end Equity Scheme with an Automatic Conversion into an Open-Ended Scheme upon Maturity Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund seeks to generate consistent long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related securities by following value investing strategy.
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