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Mar 25, 1997 Apr 25, 1997 May 25, 1997 Nov 18, 1997
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino/index.html
1997-98 El niño
April 1997 – June 1998
Northwest America (California & Oregon coast) –
unusually severe storms, causing major coastal erosion
& flooding rivers.
Eastern seaboard & Gulf of Mexico – mildest hurricane
season.
East Africa (region of drought) – rainfall 5x.
Indonesia – drought, forest fire, haze over Southeast
Asia.
New Guinea – drought, crop failure.
India, Australia & Argentina – record high crop harvest.
California & Florida – unusual rainfall triggered
vegetation growth.
Estimated global damage ~ $30 billion.
1997/98 El niño most intense.
Past 12 years (1997-2000), 5 El niño → highest
frequencies.
Atlantic has unusual number of hurricanes for 9
out of the past eleven 11 season since 1995
(hurricane season = July – Sept). 15 hurricanes
in one season (2005) including 4 category 5
storms.
Intensity of hurricanes (causing severe
economic damage such as Katrina 2005)
increased.
The latest El niño/Katrina revealed that
atmosphere, land & ocean are linked together.
Climate Change
The Earth’s atmosphere: lowest layer =
troposphere, ground level to 8 kilometers
at the poles and to 18 kilometers near the
equator.
The troposphere = 75 percent of the mass
of the atmosphere and almost all the
atmospheric water vapor.
Troposphere = Often turbulent, home to
weather systems such as hurricanes,
tornadoes, and thunderstorms.
Troposphere = temperatures that
generally decrease with increasing height.
Stratosphere = a relatively stable layer of the atmosphere
above troposphere, extends to about 50 kilometers in
altitude.
Important feature of stratosphere = ozone layer, protects
the Earth by absorbing much of the ultraviolet radiation
from the Sun.
Stratosphere = overall increase of temperature with
increasing height.
Tropopause= boundary of troposphere & stratosphere.
Tropopause = Its height is sensitive to the changes in
atmospheric temperature caused by both natural and
human factors.
Previous studies of weather balloon data → tropopause
has risen about 200 meters since 1979.
Atmosphere Layer
Climate Change – Tropopause height
Climate is the average pattern of
weather over the long term.
Climate is influenced by many natural and
anthropogenic factors.
These “forcings” of the climate system can
have different effects on tropospheric and
stratospheric temperatures and hence on
tropopause height.
.
Climate Change – Tropopause height
For example, well-mixed greenhouse gases, such as the
carbon dioxide produced from burning fossil fuels,
simultaneously warm the troposphere and cool the
stratosphere. Both effects increase tropopause height.
The depletion of stratospheric ozone by
chlorofluorocarbons cools the stratosphere, which tends
to raise the tropopause.
The sulfate aerosols produced by burning fossil fuels
lower the tropopause by cooling the troposphere.
Volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during
massive eruptions also lower the tropopause because
they absorb incoming solar radiation, thus warming the
stratosphere and cooling the troposphere.
Changes in solar radiance
Simulations with the Parallel Climate Model show that human-caused changes in
tropopause height are greater than those from natural effects alone.
Major volcanic eruptions tend to decrease tropopause height while human activity
tends to increase it.
The modeling results are consistent with observational data from the National Center
for Atmospheric Research and the National Center for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) and from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA).
Evidence on rising surface
temperature