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Crossover Rate Independent & Mutually Exclusive Projects Advantages and Disadvantages of IRR Conclusion
Sample Question
Time Period: Cash Flows: 0
-1,000
1
500
2
400
3
300
4
100
-1,000
NPV = 0
Practice Question
Professor Stephen D'Arcy is planning to invest $500,000 in to his own insurance company, but is unsure about the return he will gain on this investment. He produces estimated cash flows for the following years: Year 1: $200,000 Year 2: $250,000 Year 3: $300,000 How do you find his internal rate of return for this investment?
A B C D E
500 ,000
500 ,000
500 ,000
500 ,000
D1 IRR P
Where:
D1 = Dividend paid P = Current price of stock
Sample Question
Andrew is prepared to pay his stockholders $8 for every share held. The current price that his stock is currently held for is $65. What is his internal rate of return?
$8 IRR $65
IRR = 12.3%
D1 IRR g P
Sample Question
Rav paid $1.80 in dividends last year. He has forecasted that his growth will be 5% per year in the future. The current share price for his company is $40. What is his IRR? What is D1?
Do * (1 + Growth Rate) $1.80 * (1+5%) = $1.89
IRR
IRR = 9.72%
A multiple growth model is when dividends growth rate varies over time The focus is now on a time in the future after which dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate g Unfortunately, a convenient expression similar to the previous equations is not available for multiple-growth models. You need to know what the current price of the stock is to find IRR N Formula: D D
P
t 1
(1 IRR ) t
t 1
Where:
Dt = Dividend payments before dividends are made constant Dt+1 = Dividend payment after dividends are set to a constant rate t = time dividends are paid at T = time that dividends are made constant P = Current price of stock
Sample Question
The University of Illinois paid dividends in the first and second year amounting to $2 and $3 respectively. It then announced that dividends would be paid at a constant rate of 10%. The current price of the stock is $55. We know:
D1 = $2 D2 = $3 P = 55 T = 2 (as after second year, dividends become constant)
55
IRR = 14.9%
Practice Question
Professor Stephen D'Arcy is the CEO of a large insurance firm, AIG. He is prepared to pay $10 in dividends for the first three years, in which after the third year, the growth rate in dividends will be 10%. If the stock currently sells for $100, how do you find his internal rate of return?
A B C
100
100
100
$10 $10 $10 $11 (1 IRR )1 (1 IRR ) 2 (1 IRR )3 ( IRR 0.1)(1 IRR ) 4
$10 $11 $12 .1 $13 .31 (1 IRR )1 (1 IRR ) 2 (1 IRR )3 ( IRR 0.1)(1 IRR ) 4
$10 $10 $10 $11 (1 IRR )1 (1 IRR ) 2 (1 IRR )3 ( IRR 0.1)(1 IRR )3
D
E
100
$10 $10 $10 $10 (1 IRR )1 (1 IRR ) 2 (1 IRR )3 ( IRR 0.1)(1 IRR )3
Crossover Rate
The crossover rate is defined as the rate at which the NPVs of two projects are equal.
Source: http://people.sauder.ubc.ca/phd/barnea/documents/lecture%202%20-%202004.pdf
Disadvantages
Lending vs. Borrowing Multiple IRRs Mutually Exclusive projects.
Disadvantages
Lending vs. Borrowing
Example: Suppose you have the choice between projects A and B. Project A requires an investment of $1,000 and pays you $1,500 one year later. Project B pays you $1,000 up front but requires you to pay $1,500 one year later.
Project A
B
C_0 -1,000
+1,000
C_1 +1,500
-1,500
IRR +50%
+50%
NPV at 10%
+364
-364
Disadvantages Continued
Multiple IRRs
In certain situations, various rates will cause NPV to equal zero, yielding multiple IRRs. This occurs because of sign changes in the associated cash flows. In a case where there are multiple IRRs, you should choose the IRR that provides the highest NPV at the appropriate discount rate.
Disadvantages Continued
Mutually exclusive projects can be misrepresented by the IRR rule. Example: Project C requires an initial investment of $10,000 and yields a inflow of $20,000 one year later. Project D requires an initial investment of $20,000 and yields an inflow of $35,000 one year later. It would appear that we should choose project C due to its higher IRR. Project D, however, has the higher NPV. Project C D C_0 -10,000 -20,000 C_1 +20,000 +35,000 IRR (%) 100 75
NPV at 10%
+8,182 +11,818
Conclusion
There are various types of models for calculating IRR including common stock, zero growth, constant growth, and multiple growth. Despite the disadvantages covered, IRR is still a much better measure than the payback method or even return on book. When applied correctly, IRR calculations yield the same decisions that NPV calculations would. In cases where IRR causes conflicts in decision-making, it is more useful to use NPV.
Questions?