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# A Statistical Journey: Taming of the Skew

A Discussion Of Chapters 5 8
Copyright 2009 by Dr. Donald F. DeMoulin Dr.William Allan Kritsonis
Slides May Not Be Altered, Changed, or Modified

## Topics Of This Lesson

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13)

Probability Permutations and Combinations Z-Normal Distributions Transforming a Raw Score to Standard Deviation Units T-Scores and Stanine Scores Hypothesis Testing Type I and II Errors Power, Effect Size, Alpha Level and Sample Size One-Tailed and Two Tailed Tests Seven Step Process One Sample z-test One Sample t-test Confidence Interval
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Probability
Chapter 5
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Probability
Probabilities have a confined range from zero (0) to one (1) A probability which equals zero (0) is certain not to occur while a probability of one (1) is certain to occur
The closer a probability is to either extreme, the more likely (1) or unlikely (0) the occurrence

Probability
Analytical viewthe desired outcome divided by the possible outcomes or the probability of A occurring would be the possible ways for A divided by the total possible ways (A+B) For example, if you had 85 red M&Ms and 15 yellow M&Ms in your drawer, the probability of pulling out a red M&M would be Probability (A) = A/A+B)
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Probability
P(A) = A/(A+B) = 85/(85+15) = 85/100 = 0.85

Probability
An event is a basic descriptor of an item

For example, the probability of drawing a red M&M out of a bag is referred to as an event

Probability
Events are said to be mutually exclusive if one event precludes the occurrence of the other

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## Additive Law for Mutually Exclusive Events

The Additive Law simply examines a given set of mutually exclusive events Then, the probability of one event or another is equal to the sum of their separate probabilities

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## Additive Law for Mutually Exclusive Events

For example, if we had 30 red M&Ms, 15 yellow M&Ms, and 55 green M&Ms in a sack, what would be the probability of drawing an M&M that is either red or yellow
First we need to compute the probability of each occurrence separately (Analytical View)

P(A) = A/A+B+C = 30/100 = .30 P(B) = B/A+B+C = 15/100 = .15 P(C) = C/A+B+C = 55/100 = .55
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## Additive Law for Mutually Exclusive Events

Now we can substitute values in the additive procedure to calculate the probability of either drawing a red or yellow M&M from the sack P(A or B) P(Ared or Byellow) = P(A) + P(B) = P(Ared) + P(Byellow) = .30 + .15 = .45
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## Multiplicative Law for Mutually Exclusive Events

The Multiplicative Law signifies that the probability of a joint occurrence of two or more independent events is the product of their individual probabilities [P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)]
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## Multiplicative Law for Mutually Exclusive Events

In this sack, we have 30 red M&Ms, 15 yellow M&Ms and 55 green M&Ms What would be the probability of picking a red M&M on the first draw, a yellow M&M on the second draw, and a green M&M on the third draw P(A and B and C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C) = P(Ared and Byellow and Cgreen) = P(Ared) x P(Byellow) x P(Cgreen) = (.30)(.15)(.55) = .0248

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Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability: one event will occur given that some other event has already occurred

## [P(A/B) is read the probability of A given that B has already occurred]

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Conditional Probability
Have children
Have no children Total Have M&Ms 30 15 45 Have No M&Ms 5 50 55 Total 35 65 100

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Conditional Probability
What would be the probability of having M&Ms in a household? P(A) = A/A+B = 45/100 = .45

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Conditional Probability
What would be the probability of not having M&Ms in a household? P(B) = B/A+B = 55/100 = .55

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Conditional Probability
What would be the probability of having M&Ms given that you have children Look at the column under "have M&Ms" and the row "have children Here we have 30 parents that have children and have M&Ms in the household out of a total of 35 parents who have children The probability calculation would be as follows: P(A/B) = 30/35 = .8571 = .86

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Conditional Probability
Figure the probability of having M&Ms in a household given that you have no children The procedure is the same:

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## Additive Law for Mutually Unexclusive Events

The probability of A or B equals the probability of A plus the probability of B minus the sum of the probabilities of A and B or the union () of events A and B

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## Additive Law for Mutually Unexclusive Events

Children under 18 who eat M&Ms 0 1 2 3 4 Total Number of Families 15 12 10 5 3 45 Probability . .33 .27 .22 .11 .07 . 1.00

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## Additive Law for Mutually Unexclusive Events

Figure the probability that a randomly selected family has either an odd number of children or has at least 1 child

First, we must figure the probability of having an odd number of children (for the sake of argument, zero (0) will be considered an even number)
P(A) = A/A+B = (12 + 5)/45 = 17/45 = .3823

## Additive Law for Mutually Unexclusive Events

Next, we must figure the probability of families having at least one child

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## Additive Law for Mutually Unexclusive Events

Finally, the solution to the original question of the probability of randomly selecting a family that has either an odd number of children, or at least one child As you can see, the events are mutually unexclusive as a family could fit into both categories P(A or B) = = = = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) (.38 + .67) - (.27 + .11) 1.05 - .38 .67
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## Permutations and Combinations

A factorial (denoted by the sign "!") signifies multiplying a selected integer by each and every successive integer to zero

For example, 10! (read ten factorial) is the same as multiplying 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1**
**zero factorial (0!) equals one

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Permutation
A Permutation is concerned about the number of possible arrangements that can be made regarding a certain order NPr = N! (N-r)!
N equals the number of items and r equals a grouping, or N items taken r at a time
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Permutation

For example, if a science teacher has six slides, how many different orders can be shown if he shows all six at a time
N

## Pr = N! = 6! = 6x5x4x3x2x1 = 720 (N-r)! 0! 1

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Combination
Combinations (denoted NCr) are not concerned with an order, but are concerned with the number of different combinations that can be made by taking a certain number at a time
NCr

N! r!(N-r)!
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Combination
How many combinations can be made utilizing a set containing the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4, taking two at a time
Cr = 4C2 = N! = 4! = r!(N-r)! 2!(4-2)! 4! = 4! 2!(2!) (2X1)(2X1)

= 4X3X2X1 = 24 = 6 (2)(2) 4
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Z-Normal Distribution
Chapter 6
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Z-Normal Distribution
The z-normal distribution is symmetrical and unimodal (one hump) with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one ( = 0, = 1)

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Z-Normal Distribution
The total area under the z-normal distribution equals one and extends to infinity in either direction (positive and negative)

## Total Area = 1.0

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Z-Normal Distribution
The total area is divided into .5 extending to the left and .5 extending to the right

.5

.5

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Z-Normal Distribution
If you have an area of .5 for one half of the distribution, you must have an area of .5 for the other half as .5 + .5 = 1.00

## Total Area = 1.0

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Z-Normal Distribution
The z-chart in the tables is divided into three sections:
1)

2)

3)

z-score the area between the mean and some zscore the area beyond

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## Area between mean and z z-score

Area beyond

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Z-Normal Distribution
In the z-table, there are no negative numbers because the area is the same whether it is positive or negative Remember, if you have an area of .5 for one half of the distribution, you must have an area of .5 for the other half as .5 + .5 = 1.00
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Z-Normal Distribution
If you look on your chart at a z-score of 1, the "area between" the mean and a z-score of 1 equals .3413 (34.13%) Remember, the area between the mean and a z-score of 1 is the same area between the mean and a z-score of -1
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If you add .3413 and .3413, we get .6826, or 68.26 percent of the scores as previously discussed 41

Z-Normal Distribution
Next, the "area beyond" coincides with the percent of scores that are beyond a certain z-score For example, the "area between" the mean and -1 or between the mean and +1 equals .3413, as we have already established Therefore, the "area beyond" a z-score of -1 or +1 must be .5000 - .3413 or .1587 (remember the area between and beyond must equal .5)

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Z-Normal Distribution
If we want to know the area beyond z-score of .97, we look under the "area beyond" column that corresponds to z-score of .97 Looking at those numbers, we find that area to be 0.1660 Conversely, the "area between" the mean and z-score of .97 = .3340 (.5000 - .1600 = .3340)
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z = .97 Area Beyond = 0.1660 Area Between Mean and z of .97 = .3340

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Z-Normal Distribution
Now, if we want to find the area between two z-scores, all we have to do is some simple addition and subtraction For instance, we want to know the area between a z-score of -1 and a z-score of .97
.6753 z = -1 z = .97

First we need to locate the area between the mean and a z-score of .97 We need to find the area between z = -1 (.3413) and z = .97 (.3340) and add the two figures (.3413 + .3340 = .6753)

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## Transforming a Raw Score to SD Units

The process of obtaining a z-score from a raw score (X) is simply subtracting the mean ( for a population or X-bar for a sample) from the raw score (X) and divide by the standard deviation z = X- or z = X X-bar s
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## Transforming a Raw Score to SD Units

Compute z and locate the area to the left of X = 5 ( = 4, = 2) z = X- = 5-4 = 1 = .5 2 2 The raw score of 5 is located .5 standard deviation units above the mean in which .3085 or 30.85 percent of the scores lie beyond this figure and .1915 or 19.15 percent of the scores lie between the mean and the z-score of .5

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## Transforming a Z-Score to a T-Score

The use of a T-score is sometimes preferred over a z-score because T-scores eliminate negative numbers The T-score has a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10 ( = 50, = 10) with a range from 20 to 80 that parallels with a z-normal distribution of -3 to +3

To compute a T-score, we first must compute a z-score. Then we can plug the z-score into the following formula: T = 10(z) + 50 50

## Transforming a Raw Score to SD Units

Data Summary X = 26 = 20 =3

z = X- = 26-20 = 6 = 2 3 3
z-score = 2

## Transform the z-score to a T-score by: T = 10(z) + 50 = 10(2) + 50 = 20 + 50 = 70

T-Score = 70 z-score = +2

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## Transforming a Raw Score to SD Units

Data Summary X = 26 = 20 =3

Stanine

## Z-score previously calculated = 2

Stanine = 2(z) + 5 = 2(2) + 5 = 4 + 5 = 9

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Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 7

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## It only supports or fails to support your suspicion

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Hypothesis Testing
You have basically two different hypotheses a null hypothesis (Ho) that assumes no significant differenceor the resulting difference is not great enough to warrant further attention an alternative hypothesis (Ha) that assumes a significant differenceor the resulting difference is great enough to warrant further attention
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Hypothesis Testing
You have basically two types of errors - Type I and Type II A Type I error occurs when a researcher rejects a null hypothesis (Ho) when the null hypothesis is true A Type II error occurs when a researcher fails to reject a null hypothesis (Ho) when the null hypothesis is false
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The term power of a statistical test is the probability of action to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is in fact false

Testing Errors

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## Sample Size Determination

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Power
The Power of a test is the probability that an incorrect null hypothesis is rejectedor the ability to reject a false null hypothesis

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Power
The Power of a test is affected by the Effect Size, Sample Size and Alpha Level

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Effect Size
Effect size can be envisioned as the size of the treatment effect the researchers wish to detect with probability power, or the difference between the population mean () and the sample mean (X-bar) when the alternative hypothesis (Ha) is true and a difference can be visually detected

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Effect Size
Effect size has been classified in the following manner: Small effect size: .25 (read .25 standard deviations) - difference cannot be visually detected Medium effect size: .50 (read .50 standard deviations) - synonymous with practical significance Large effect size: .80 (read .80 standard deviations) - difference can be visually detected
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Alpha Level
The Alpha Level (or Significance Level) is the P-value that we decide to accept before we will be confident enough to release a findingthis is our predetermined acceptance level which is usually defaulted to .05 Many researchers will not accept a P value greater than .10

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Increase Power
To Increase the Power in a Study Calls for An Increase in Sample size You Already Have an Established Alpha Level and an Estimated Effect Size so all You Have to Increase Power is Sample Size
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Increase Power
In an Independent t-test with an alpha level of .05, effect size at .5 and to achieve .80 power with a one-tailed test, you would need a sample size of 50 For .90 power, a sample size of 69 is needed For .95 power, a sample size of 87 is needed

PER GROUP!!

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## Sample Size Chart Example

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Increase Power
In an Independent t-test with an alpha level of .05, effect size at .5 and to achieve .80 power with a two-tailed test, you would need a sample size of 64 For .90 power, a sample size of 85 is needed For .95 power, a sample size of 105 is needed

PER GROUP!!

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## Sample Size Chart Example

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Developing Hypotheses

Defining a hypothesis

## A researchers tentative prediction of the results of the research

Formulated on the basis of knowledge of the underlying theory or implications from the literature review Testing a hypothesis leads to support of the hypothesis or lack thereof

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Developing Hypotheses

## A good quantitative hypothesis

is based on sound reasoning provides a reasonable explanation for the predicted outcome clearly and concisely states the expected relationships between variables is testable

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Developing Hypotheses

## Research hypotheses state the expected relationship between two variables

Non-directional a statement that no relationship or difference exists between the variables Directional a statement of the expected direction of the relationship or difference between variables Null a statistical statement that no statistically significant relationship or difference exists between variables

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Developing Hypotheses
Non-Directional
There is no relationship between mean math attitudes and mean math achievement There is no difference in mean math achievement of students using technology versus those students who do not

Null
H0: = 0 Ha: 0

H0: 1 - 2 = 0 Ha: 1 - 2 0

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Developing Hypotheses
Directional
Fifth grade boys score significantly higher on mean science test scores than 5th grade girls Students using technology will score significantly lower on mean anxiety scales than students who do not use technology

Null
H0: 0 Ha: > 0

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## One-Tailed and Two Tailed Tests

Critical Value = The Value Which Represents the Beginning of the Rejection Region

Observed Value = The Calculated Value That is Compared to the Critical Value for Statistical Significance

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Seven-Step Process
Step 1: Formulate hypothesis, null (Ho) and alternative (Ha), and indicate a test for difference (non-directional, two-tailed test) or a test for direction (directional, one-tailed test)
Step 2: Establish an alpha level (allowing for power, effect size, and sample size)

## Step 3: Determine appropriate sampling distribution

Step 4: Formulate a decision rule Step 5: Gather data and perform appropriate statistical procedure Step 6: Summarize procedures based on the decision rule Step 7: Draw a logical conclusion from results
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Summary

## Remember that hypothesis testing does not prove anything

It only supports or fail to support your hypothesis at that given time with that given sample

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Chapter 8
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## Test of Means for One Sample

Review
A null hypothesis (Ho) is written as no difference (1 = 2) where the population mean of one group (1) equals the population mean of another group (2)
When this occurs, no significant difference exists
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## Test of Means for One Sample

Review
The alternative hypothesis (Ha) is written to signify a significant difference does exist (1 2), where the population mean of one group (1) does not equal the population mean of another group (2) Rejecting the null hypothesis, therefore constitutes a significant difference between groups
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## Test of Means for One Sample

Review
The alpha level (), sometimes referred to as the rejection level, the significance level, or the risk factor, is the relative frequency a researcher wishes to make a Type I error A Type I error is the rejection of the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is actually true A Type II error is the failure to reject the null hypothesis when in fact the null hypothesis is false
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## Test of Means for One Sample

A critical value is a value for an appropriate sampling distribution that will cause a rejection of the null hypothesis
The critical value is affected by the sample size, alpha level, and type of hypothesis test (directional or non-directional)
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## Test of Means for One Sample

Each statistical procedure has a table of critical values for reference
A critical value for one statistical procedure will not be the same critical value for another statistical procedure A critical value constitutes the beginning of a critical or rejection region A critical region signifies the point(s) designated by the critical value and every point thereafter extending indefinitely
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## Test of Means for One Sample

The point to the left or right of the critical region on a one-tailed test is known as the safe region or the fail to reject region
The point in between the critical regions on a two tailed test is identified as the samesafe or the fail to reject region
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## Test of Means for One Sample

A one-tailed test signifies the direction of interest and is concerned only with one end of the distribution Ho: or Ha: < or >

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## Test of Means for One Sample

A two-tailed test signifies no direction, just a difference, and is concerned with both ends of the distribution since a direction (positive or negative) is not important Ho: = Ha:

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

One of the most basic statistical procedures is to test a sample against an established norm
Example Data collected at a municipal hospital on 100 newborn babies show that the average new-born child weighs 7.2 pounds with a standard deviation of 0.7 pounds A father wants to know whether his four children who weighed 5.0 pounds, 6.8 pounds, 8.6 pounds, and 5.8 pounds at birth were significantly different from the average newborn
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

In this example, we have one sample, the four children, and an established norm, the average weight of newborn babies, plus a known standard deviation
To solve this mystery, we would perform what is known as a one-sample z-test
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

If you recall in an earlier section, we transformed a raw score to a z-score by using the formula Z=X- For a one sample z-test a similar formula is used
Z = X-bar - x

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

x is referred to as the standard error of the mean The Standard Error of the Mean is determined by taking the Standard Deviation of the sample and dividing by the square root of the sample
x = n
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Our inquisitional father is interested to see if his newborns were indeed significantly different in weight from the established average weight of new-born infants
The seven step process begins with Step 1: Formulate Ho and Ha Ho: = 7.2 Ha: 7.2
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Step 2:
Step 3:

## Set alpha level () at .05

Sampling Distribution

(purely arbitrary)

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 4: Formulate decision rule
This step will be made a bit clearer if we utilize a diagram

Since we are only concerned with a difference, not lighter or heavier than, we are utilizing a nondirectional, two-tailed test and the alpha level must be divided equally (since the right half is the exact mirror of the left half) between each end of the distribution
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

The alpha level of .05 becomes .025 for the left end of the tail (negative) and .025 for the right end of the tail (positive)
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

In the z-table, we find a z-column, an area between mean and z-column, and an area beyond columnwe are concerned with the area beyond since that value and every value beyond that point signifies the critical region or rejection region
If we look down the column area beyond to .025, we find a corresponding z-score of 1.96
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Area Beyond

Z-critical value

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

If the calculated or observed value falls at or beyond 1.96 on the positive end (right half of the tail) or at or beyond -1.96 on the negative end (left half of the tail) we will reject the hypothesis If the calculated or observed value falls between -1.96 and 1.96, we will then fail to reject the null hypothesis
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

We will reject Ho if our z-observed value (zobs) falls at or beyond our z-critical value (zcrit) of 1.96 or at or beyond our z-critical value of -1.96 otherwise we will fail to reject

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

To simplify matters, on all two-tailed tests, we can utilize an absolute value (| |) for our zobs since we are only concerned with a difference The decision rule now becomes:

We will reject Ho if our |zobs| falls at or beyond our |zcrit| of 1.96, otherwise we will fail to reject
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure
Z-test formula Z = X-bar - x

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

First, we must calculate the standard error of the mean (x) by the following formula: x = n Here equals the established standard deviation and n equals the number in the sample

Calculation

x = s = .7 = .7 = .35 n 4 2

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Next we must calculate the average weight (X-bar) for the sample Weight (x) 5.0 6.8 8.6 5.8 X = 26.2 = X/N = 26.2 4 = 6.55

X-bar

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Now all we have to do is substitute values into the z-formula

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 6: Summarize results

Since the | zobs| of 1.86 does not fall at or beyond the zcri of 1.96, we therefore fail to reject Ho

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 7: Draw a logical conclusion based on summary

Since we failed to reject the Ho, we conclude that there is no difference in the average weights of the father's four children at birth and the average weight of new-born children at the municipal hospital
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Example 2
What if the father speculated that the mean weight of his four children at birth was significantly less than the average new-born child at the municipal hospital Step 1: Ho: = 7.2 Ha: < 7.2 Ho: 7.2 Ha: < 7.2

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Step 2:
Step 3: Step 4:

## Alpha level () equals .05

Still a z-normal distribution Decision rule

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

To find our critical value, we must again refer to our z-chart
Since we are not dividing our alpha level and are concentrating its full effect on the left end of the distribution, we now look at the area beyond column for .05 Locating .05 we find a corresponding z-value of 1.645 and since we are concerned with the left end of the distribution (negative side) this z-value becomes -1.645

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Z-critical value

Area Beyond

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 4: Decision rule

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 5: Calculation utilizing appropriate statistical procedure

We have already calculated the observed value of -1.86 so we can move to step 6

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 6: Summarize results based on decision rule

Since zobs of -1.86 falls beyond zcri of -1.645, we therefore reject the Ho in favor of the Ha

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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Step 7: Conclusion

Since we rejected the Ho, we conclude that the mean weight of the father's four children at birth is significantly less than the mean average weight of new-born infants at the municipal hospital
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## Test of Means for One Sample Z-Test

Summary
To justify the use of a one sample z-test, some assumptions are needed

we must assume that the underlying variable comes from a population that is normally distributed we must assume that the null hypothesis is true we must assume that the rules of randomization were followed we must know or have access to the population standard deviation

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

What if the standard deviation is not known or given
If a population standard deviation is not given, then it must be calculated from a sample The standard deviation now becomes an estimate and is denoted as N-1 N-1 becomes the best estimate of the population standard deviation
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

The t-test is used in place of the z-test when the standard deviation is not known and must be calculated because it functions better (is more robust) as a measure when the standard deviation is estimated Using a t-test makes an adjustment that utilizes the estimates of the standard deviation () of a sample (N-1) for the population parameter () 119

## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Example
Over the years, the 'Kids' corporation has sold an average of 3.7 pitchers of lemonade per day

## They want to know if they are faring as well this year

They randomly selected five (5) days for this year and logged the following data set: Day 1 2 3 4 5 Pitchers Sold 2 3 1 1 5
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 1: Formulate Hypothesis
Ho: = 3.7 Ha: 3.7

Step 2:

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 3: Sampling distribution

## df is found by N-1 where N equals the total numberN-1 = 5-1 = 4

We have four (4) degrees of freedom for this sample and our appropriate sampling distribution therefore becomes t4
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 4: Formulate a decision rule

We are performing a non-directional, two-tailed test so we look in that box for the alpha level of .05 (remember, the value has been divided for you)

Finally, we intersect df of 4 and alpha of .05, two-tailed test and find that our critical value is 2.776
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critical value

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 4: Formulate a decision rule

## Reject Ho if | tobs| falls at or beyond |tcrit| of 2.776, otherwise fail to reject

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Data Set
Sample Day 1 2 3 4 5 Pitchers Sold X 2 4 3 9 1 1 1 1 5 25 X = 12 X = 40 N= 5 X-bar = 2.4 = 1.673
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Next, we must calculate the standard error of the mean (x ) using the formula below x = s n = 1.673 5 = 1.673 2.24 = .747

We solve for t by: t = X-bar - est. x = 2.4 3.7 .747 = -1.3 = -1.74 .747

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 6: Based on the calculated information, we offer the following summary:

Since tobs of 1.74 does not fall at or beyond |tcrit| of 2.776, we therefore fail to reject Ho

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 7: Conclusion

Since we failed to reject the Ho, we conclude that there is no difference in the amount of pitchers sold per day this year when compared to last year

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

What if the 'Kids' corporation suspected that this year's per day pitcher sales were exceeding last year's per day pitcher sales
Step 1: Formulate Hypothesis

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 2:
Step 3:

= .05
t4 as sampling distribution (this does not change)

Step 4:

Decision rule

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 4: Decision rule

Referring to the student's t-chart, we find our critical value at four (4) degrees of freedom and at an alpha level of .05, one-tailed test to be 2.132 (tcrit = 2.132)

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critical value

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 4: Decision rule

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

## Since we have already calculated the t-statistic to be -1.74, we can go to step 6

Step 6: Summary

Since tobs of -1.74 does not fall at or beyond tcrit of +2.132 we therefore fail to reject Ho
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Step 7: Conclusion

Since we failed to reject the Ho, we conclude that this year's per day pitcher sales do not exceed last year's per day pitcher sales

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

There is another calculation that needs to be done to construct a confidence interval
A confidence interval generates a range estimate for the population mean () by generating a lower limit and an upper limit for possible parameters
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

No matter what type of hypothesis test you perform (one-tailed or two-tailed) the critical value in this formula is always designated as though you performed a two-tailed test In other words, the critical value in any confidence interval is a two-tailed value
The sample mean will fall outside the constructed population mean interval when the Ho is rejected on a two-tailed test A failure to reject signifies the sample mean is within the constructed population mean interval
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

For the z-test, the formula is:
95% CI = 100(1- ) = zcri (x) For the t-test, the formula is: 95% CI = 100(1- ) = tcrit(x)
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

The confidence interval calculations for our z-statistic is:

## 95% 95% 95% 95%

CI = 100(1- ) = zcri (x) = 7.2 1.96(.35) = 7.2 .686 = 6.514 7.2 7.886

In the previous z-test, we failed to reject Ho and therefore the sample mean (X-bar = 6.55) should fall within the confidence interval range

And it does
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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

What the confidence interval relates is that, based on our random sample, we can have a 95% confidence level that the true mean will fall between 6.514 and 7.886

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Now let us calculate the confidence interval for the t-statistic just completed
95% 95% 95% 95% 95% CI = 100(1- ) = tcrit(x) = 3.7 2.776 (.747) = 3.7 2.776 (.747) = 3.7 2.776 = 0.924 3.7 6.476

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## Test of Means for One Sample t-test

Since we failed to reject our Ho in the t-test problem, our sample mean of 2.4 should fall within the confidence interval range

And it does
95% = 0.924 3.7 6.476
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IntervalRatio Data
One Sample Dependent Variable

## Estimated SD from Sample

One-Sample Z-test

One-Sample t-test
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