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A Discussion Of Chapters 5 8

Copyright 2009 by Dr. Donald F. DeMoulin Dr.William Allan Kritsonis

Slides May Not Be Altered, Changed, or Modified

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13)

Probability Permutations and Combinations Z-Normal Distributions Transforming a Raw Score to Standard Deviation Units T-Scores and Stanine Scores Hypothesis Testing Type I and II Errors Power, Effect Size, Alpha Level and Sample Size One-Tailed and Two Tailed Tests Seven Step Process One Sample z-test One Sample t-test Confidence Interval

2

Probability

Chapter 5

3

Probability

Probabilities have a confined range from zero (0) to one (1) A probability which equals zero (0) is certain not to occur while a probability of one (1) is certain to occur

The closer a probability is to either extreme, the more likely (1) or unlikely (0) the occurrence

Probability

Analytical viewthe desired outcome divided by the possible outcomes or the probability of A occurring would be the possible ways for A divided by the total possible ways (A+B) For example, if you had 85 red M&Ms and 15 yellow M&Ms in your drawer, the probability of pulling out a red M&M would be Probability (A) = A/A+B)

5

Probability

P(A) = A/(A+B) = 85/(85+15) = 85/100 = 0.85

Probability

An event is a basic descriptor of an item

For example, the probability of drawing a red M&M out of a bag is referred to as an event

Probability

Events are said to be mutually exclusive if one event precludes the occurrence of the other

8

The Additive Law simply examines a given set of mutually exclusive events Then, the probability of one event or another is equal to the sum of their separate probabilities

9

For example, if we had 30 red M&Ms, 15 yellow M&Ms, and 55 green M&Ms in a sack, what would be the probability of drawing an M&M that is either red or yellow

First we need to compute the probability of each occurrence separately (Analytical View)

P(A) = A/A+B+C = 30/100 = .30 P(B) = B/A+B+C = 15/100 = .15 P(C) = C/A+B+C = 55/100 = .55

10

Now we can substitute values in the additive procedure to calculate the probability of either drawing a red or yellow M&M from the sack P(A or B) P(Ared or Byellow) = P(A) + P(B) = P(Ared) + P(Byellow) = .30 + .15 = .45

11

The Multiplicative Law signifies that the probability of a joint occurrence of two or more independent events is the product of their individual probabilities [P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)]

12

In this sack, we have 30 red M&Ms, 15 yellow M&Ms and 55 green M&Ms What would be the probability of picking a red M&M on the first draw, a yellow M&M on the second draw, and a green M&M on the third draw P(A and B and C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C) = P(Ared and Byellow and Cgreen) = P(Ared) x P(Byellow) x P(Cgreen) = (.30)(.15)(.55) = .0248

13

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability: one event will occur given that some other event has already occurred

14

Conditional Probability

Have children

Have no children Total Have M&Ms 30 15 45 Have No M&Ms 5 50 55 Total 35 65 100

15

Conditional Probability

What would be the probability of having M&Ms in a household? P(A) = A/A+B = 45/100 = .45

16

Conditional Probability

What would be the probability of not having M&Ms in a household? P(B) = B/A+B = 55/100 = .55

17

Conditional Probability

What would be the probability of having M&Ms given that you have children Look at the column under "have M&Ms" and the row "have children Here we have 30 parents that have children and have M&Ms in the household out of a total of 35 parents who have children The probability calculation would be as follows: P(A/B) = 30/35 = .8571 = .86

18

Conditional Probability

Figure the probability of having M&Ms in a household given that you have no children The procedure is the same:

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The probability of A or B equals the probability of A plus the probability of B minus the sum of the probabilities of A and B or the union () of events A and B

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21

Children under 18 who eat M&Ms 0 1 2 3 4 Total Number of Families 15 12 10 5 3 45 Probability . .33 .27 .22 .11 .07 . 1.00

22

Figure the probability that a randomly selected family has either an odd number of children or has at least 1 child

First, we must figure the probability of having an odd number of children (for the sake of argument, zero (0) will be considered an even number)

P(A) = A/A+B = (12 + 5)/45 = 17/45 = .3823

Next, we must figure the probability of families having at least one child

24

Finally, the solution to the original question of the probability of randomly selecting a family that has either an odd number of children, or at least one child As you can see, the events are mutually unexclusive as a family could fit into both categories P(A or B) = = = = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) (.38 + .67) - (.27 + .11) 1.05 - .38 .67

25

A factorial (denoted by the sign "!") signifies multiplying a selected integer by each and every successive integer to zero

For example, 10! (read ten factorial) is the same as multiplying 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1**

**zero factorial (0!) equals one

26

Permutation

A Permutation is concerned about the number of possible arrangements that can be made regarding a certain order NPr = N! (N-r)!

N equals the number of items and r equals a grouping, or N items taken r at a time

27

Permutation

For example, if a science teacher has six slides, how many different orders can be shown if he shows all six at a time

N

28

Combination

Combinations (denoted NCr) are not concerned with an order, but are concerned with the number of different combinations that can be made by taking a certain number at a time

NCr

N! r!(N-r)!

29

Combination

How many combinations can be made utilizing a set containing the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4, taking two at a time

Cr = 4C2 = N! = 4! = r!(N-r)! 2!(4-2)! 4! = 4! 2!(2!) (2X1)(2X1)

= 4X3X2X1 = 24 = 6 (2)(2) 4

30

Z-Normal Distribution

Chapter 6

31

Z-Normal Distribution

The z-normal distribution is symmetrical and unimodal (one hump) with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one ( = 0, = 1)

32

Z-Normal Distribution

The total area under the z-normal distribution equals one and extends to infinity in either direction (positive and negative)

33

Z-Normal Distribution

The total area is divided into .5 extending to the left and .5 extending to the right

.5

.5

34

Z-Normal Distribution

If you have an area of .5 for one half of the distribution, you must have an area of .5 for the other half as .5 + .5 = 1.00

35

Z-Normal Distribution

The z-chart in the tables is divided into three sections:

1)

2)

3)

z-score the area between the mean and some zscore the area beyond

36

Area beyond

37

Z-Normal Distribution

In the z-table, there are no negative numbers because the area is the same whether it is positive or negative Remember, if you have an area of .5 for one half of the distribution, you must have an area of .5 for the other half as .5 + .5 = 1.00

38

Z-Normal Distribution

If you look on your chart at a z-score of 1, the "area between" the mean and a z-score of 1 equals .3413 (34.13%) Remember, the area between the mean and a z-score of 1 is the same area between the mean and a z-score of -1

39

40

If you add .3413 and .3413, we get .6826, or 68.26 percent of the scores as previously discussed 41

Z-Normal Distribution

Next, the "area beyond" coincides with the percent of scores that are beyond a certain z-score For example, the "area between" the mean and -1 or between the mean and +1 equals .3413, as we have already established Therefore, the "area beyond" a z-score of -1 or +1 must be .5000 - .3413 or .1587 (remember the area between and beyond must equal .5)

42

Z-Normal Distribution

If we want to know the area beyond z-score of .97, we look under the "area beyond" column that corresponds to z-score of .97 Looking at those numbers, we find that area to be 0.1660 Conversely, the "area between" the mean and z-score of .97 = .3340 (.5000 - .1600 = .3340)

43

44

z = .97 Area Beyond = 0.1660 Area Between Mean and z of .97 = .3340

45

Z-Normal Distribution

Now, if we want to find the area between two z-scores, all we have to do is some simple addition and subtraction For instance, we want to know the area between a z-score of -1 and a z-score of .97

.6753 z = -1 z = .97

First we need to locate the area between the mean and a z-score of .97 We need to find the area between z = -1 (.3413) and z = .97 (.3340) and add the two figures (.3413 + .3340 = .6753)

46

The process of obtaining a z-score from a raw score (X) is simply subtracting the mean ( for a population or X-bar for a sample) from the raw score (X) and divide by the standard deviation z = X- or z = X X-bar s

47

Compute z and locate the area to the left of X = 5 ( = 4, = 2) z = X- = 5-4 = 1 = .5 2 2 The raw score of 5 is located .5 standard deviation units above the mean in which .3085 or 30.85 percent of the scores lie beyond this figure and .1915 or 19.15 percent of the scores lie between the mean and the z-score of .5

48

49

The use of a T-score is sometimes preferred over a z-score because T-scores eliminate negative numbers The T-score has a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 10 ( = 50, = 10) with a range from 20 to 80 that parallels with a z-normal distribution of -3 to +3

To compute a T-score, we first must compute a z-score. Then we can plug the z-score into the following formula: T = 10(z) + 50 50

Data Summary X = 26 = 20 =3

z = X- = 26-20 = 6 = 2 3 3

z-score = 2

T-Score = 70 z-score = +2

51

Data Summary X = 26 = 20 =3

Stanine

Stanine = 2(z) + 5 = 2(2) + 5 = 4 + 5 = 9

52

Hypothesis Testing

Chapter 7

53

54

Hypothesis Testing

You have basically two different hypotheses a null hypothesis (Ho) that assumes no significant differenceor the resulting difference is not great enough to warrant further attention an alternative hypothesis (Ha) that assumes a significant differenceor the resulting difference is great enough to warrant further attention

55

Hypothesis Testing

You have basically two types of errors - Type I and Type II A Type I error occurs when a researcher rejects a null hypothesis (Ho) when the null hypothesis is true A Type II error occurs when a researcher fails to reject a null hypothesis (Ho) when the null hypothesis is false

56

The term power of a statistical test is the probability of action to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is in fact false

Testing Errors

57

58

Power

The Power of a test is the probability that an incorrect null hypothesis is rejectedor the ability to reject a false null hypothesis

59

Power

The Power of a test is affected by the Effect Size, Sample Size and Alpha Level

60

Effect Size

Effect size can be envisioned as the size of the treatment effect the researchers wish to detect with probability power, or the difference between the population mean () and the sample mean (X-bar) when the alternative hypothesis (Ha) is true and a difference can be visually detected

61

Effect Size

Effect size has been classified in the following manner: Small effect size: .25 (read .25 standard deviations) - difference cannot be visually detected Medium effect size: .50 (read .50 standard deviations) - synonymous with practical significance Large effect size: .80 (read .80 standard deviations) - difference can be visually detected

62

Alpha Level

The Alpha Level (or Significance Level) is the P-value that we decide to accept before we will be confident enough to release a findingthis is our predetermined acceptance level which is usually defaulted to .05 Many researchers will not accept a P value greater than .10

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Increase Power

To Increase the Power in a Study Calls for An Increase in Sample size You Already Have an Established Alpha Level and an Estimated Effect Size so all You Have to Increase Power is Sample Size

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Increase Power

In an Independent t-test with an alpha level of .05, effect size at .5 and to achieve .80 power with a one-tailed test, you would need a sample size of 50 For .90 power, a sample size of 69 is needed For .95 power, a sample size of 87 is needed

PER GROUP!!

65

66

Increase Power

In an Independent t-test with an alpha level of .05, effect size at .5 and to achieve .80 power with a two-tailed test, you would need a sample size of 64 For .90 power, a sample size of 85 is needed For .95 power, a sample size of 105 is needed

PER GROUP!!

67

68

Developing Hypotheses

Defining a hypothesis

Formulated on the basis of knowledge of the underlying theory or implications from the literature review Testing a hypothesis leads to support of the hypothesis or lack thereof

69

Developing Hypotheses

is based on sound reasoning provides a reasonable explanation for the predicted outcome clearly and concisely states the expected relationships between variables is testable

70

Developing Hypotheses

Non-directional a statement that no relationship or difference exists between the variables Directional a statement of the expected direction of the relationship or difference between variables Null a statistical statement that no statistically significant relationship or difference exists between variables

71

Developing Hypotheses

Non-Directional

There is no relationship between mean math attitudes and mean math achievement There is no difference in mean math achievement of students using technology versus those students who do not

Null

H0: = 0 Ha: 0

H0: 1 - 2 = 0 Ha: 1 - 2 0

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Developing Hypotheses

Directional

Fifth grade boys score significantly higher on mean science test scores than 5th grade girls Students using technology will score significantly lower on mean anxiety scales than students who do not use technology

Null

H0: 0 Ha: > 0

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Critical Value = The Value Which Represents the Beginning of the Rejection Region

Observed Value = The Calculated Value That is Compared to the Critical Value for Statistical Significance

74

Seven-Step Process

Step 1: Formulate hypothesis, null (Ho) and alternative (Ha), and indicate a test for difference (non-directional, two-tailed test) or a test for direction (directional, one-tailed test)

Step 2: Establish an alpha level (allowing for power, effect size, and sample size)

Step 4: Formulate a decision rule Step 5: Gather data and perform appropriate statistical procedure Step 6: Summarize procedures based on the decision rule Step 7: Draw a logical conclusion from results

75

Summary

It only supports or fail to support your hypothesis at that given time with that given sample

76

Chapter 8

77

Review

A null hypothesis (Ho) is written as no difference (1 = 2) where the population mean of one group (1) equals the population mean of another group (2)

When this occurs, no significant difference exists

78

Review

The alternative hypothesis (Ha) is written to signify a significant difference does exist (1 2), where the population mean of one group (1) does not equal the population mean of another group (2) Rejecting the null hypothesis, therefore constitutes a significant difference between groups

79

Review

The alpha level (), sometimes referred to as the rejection level, the significance level, or the risk factor, is the relative frequency a researcher wishes to make a Type I error A Type I error is the rejection of the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is actually true A Type II error is the failure to reject the null hypothesis when in fact the null hypothesis is false

80

A critical value is a value for an appropriate sampling distribution that will cause a rejection of the null hypothesis

The critical value is affected by the sample size, alpha level, and type of hypothesis test (directional or non-directional)

81

Each statistical procedure has a table of critical values for reference

A critical value for one statistical procedure will not be the same critical value for another statistical procedure A critical value constitutes the beginning of a critical or rejection region A critical region signifies the point(s) designated by the critical value and every point thereafter extending indefinitely

82

The point to the left or right of the critical region on a one-tailed test is known as the safe region or the fail to reject region

The point in between the critical regions on a two tailed test is identified as the samesafe or the fail to reject region

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A one-tailed test signifies the direction of interest and is concerned only with one end of the distribution Ho: or Ha: < or >

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A two-tailed test signifies no direction, just a difference, and is concerned with both ends of the distribution since a direction (positive or negative) is not important Ho: = Ha:

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One of the most basic statistical procedures is to test a sample against an established norm

Example Data collected at a municipal hospital on 100 newborn babies show that the average new-born child weighs 7.2 pounds with a standard deviation of 0.7 pounds A father wants to know whether his four children who weighed 5.0 pounds, 6.8 pounds, 8.6 pounds, and 5.8 pounds at birth were significantly different from the average newborn

86

In this example, we have one sample, the four children, and an established norm, the average weight of newborn babies, plus a known standard deviation

To solve this mystery, we would perform what is known as a one-sample z-test

87

If you recall in an earlier section, we transformed a raw score to a z-score by using the formula Z=X- For a one sample z-test a similar formula is used

Z = X-bar - x

88

x is referred to as the standard error of the mean The Standard Error of the Mean is determined by taking the Standard Deviation of the sample and dividing by the square root of the sample

x = n

89

Our inquisitional father is interested to see if his newborns were indeed significantly different in weight from the established average weight of new-born infants

The seven step process begins with Step 1: Formulate Ho and Ha Ho: = 7.2 Ha: 7.2

90

Step 2:

Step 3:

Sampling Distribution

(purely arbitrary)

91

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

This step will be made a bit clearer if we utilize a diagram

Since we are only concerned with a difference, not lighter or heavier than, we are utilizing a nondirectional, two-tailed test and the alpha level must be divided equally (since the right half is the exact mirror of the left half) between each end of the distribution

92

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

The alpha level of .05 becomes .025 for the left end of the tail (negative) and .025 for the right end of the tail (positive)

93

In the z-table, we find a z-column, an area between mean and z-column, and an area beyond columnwe are concerned with the area beyond since that value and every value beyond that point signifies the critical region or rejection region

If we look down the column area beyond to .025, we find a corresponding z-score of 1.96

94

Area Beyond

Z-critical value

95

If the calculated or observed value falls at or beyond 1.96 on the positive end (right half of the tail) or at or beyond -1.96 on the negative end (left half of the tail) we will reject the hypothesis If the calculated or observed value falls between -1.96 and 1.96, we will then fail to reject the null hypothesis

96

97

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

We will reject Ho if our z-observed value (zobs) falls at or beyond our z-critical value (zcrit) of 1.96 or at or beyond our z-critical value of -1.96 otherwise we will fail to reject

98

Step 4: Formulate decision rule

To simplify matters, on all two-tailed tests, we can utilize an absolute value (| |) for our zobs since we are only concerned with a difference The decision rule now becomes:

We will reject Ho if our |zobs| falls at or beyond our |zcrit| of 1.96, otherwise we will fail to reject

99

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

Z-test formula Z = X-bar - x

100

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

First, we must calculate the standard error of the mean (x) by the following formula: x = n Here equals the established standard deviation and n equals the number in the sample

Calculation

x = s = .7 = .7 = .35 n 4 2

101

Next we must calculate the average weight (X-bar) for the sample Weight (x) 5.0 6.8 8.6 5.8 X = 26.2 = X/N = 26.2 4 = 6.55

X-bar

102

Now all we have to do is substitute values into the z-formula

103

Step 6: Summarize results

Since the | zobs| of 1.86 does not fall at or beyond the zcri of 1.96, we therefore fail to reject Ho

104

105

Step 7: Draw a logical conclusion based on summary

Since we failed to reject the Ho, we conclude that there is no difference in the average weights of the father's four children at birth and the average weight of new-born children at the municipal hospital

106

Example 2

What if the father speculated that the mean weight of his four children at birth was significantly less than the average new-born child at the municipal hospital Step 1: Ho: = 7.2 Ha: < 7.2 Ho: 7.2 Ha: < 7.2

107

Step 2:

Step 3: Step 4:

Still a z-normal distribution Decision rule

108

To find our critical value, we must again refer to our z-chart

Since we are not dividing our alpha level and are concentrating its full effect on the left end of the distribution, we now look at the area beyond column for .05 Locating .05 we find a corresponding z-value of 1.645 and since we are concerned with the left end of the distribution (negative side) this z-value becomes -1.645

109

Z-critical value

Area Beyond

110

111

Step 4: Decision rule

112

Step 5: Calculation utilizing appropriate statistical procedure

We have already calculated the observed value of -1.86 so we can move to step 6

113

Step 6: Summarize results based on decision rule

Since zobs of -1.86 falls beyond zcri of -1.645, we therefore reject the Ho in favor of the Ha

114

115

Step 7: Conclusion

Since we rejected the Ho, we conclude that the mean weight of the father's four children at birth is significantly less than the mean average weight of new-born infants at the municipal hospital

116

Summary

To justify the use of a one sample z-test, some assumptions are needed

we must assume that the underlying variable comes from a population that is normally distributed we must assume that the null hypothesis is true we must assume that the rules of randomization were followed we must know or have access to the population standard deviation

117

What if the standard deviation is not known or given

If a population standard deviation is not given, then it must be calculated from a sample The standard deviation now becomes an estimate and is denoted as N-1 N-1 becomes the best estimate of the population standard deviation

118

The t-test is used in place of the z-test when the standard deviation is not known and must be calculated because it functions better (is more robust) as a measure when the standard deviation is estimated Using a t-test makes an adjustment that utilizes the estimates of the standard deviation () of a sample (N-1) for the population parameter () 119

Example

Over the years, the 'Kids' corporation has sold an average of 3.7 pitchers of lemonade per day

They randomly selected five (5) days for this year and logged the following data set: Day 1 2 3 4 5 Pitchers Sold 2 3 1 1 5

120

Step 1: Formulate Hypothesis

Ho: = 3.7 Ha: 3.7

Step 2:

121

Step 3: Sampling distribution

We have four (4) degrees of freedom for this sample and our appropriate sampling distribution therefore becomes t4

122

Step 4: Formulate a decision rule

We are performing a non-directional, two-tailed test so we look in that box for the alpha level of .05 (remember, the value has been divided for you)

Finally, we intersect df of 4 and alpha of .05, two-tailed test and find that our critical value is 2.776

123

critical value

124

Step 4: Formulate a decision rule

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

125

Data Set

Sample Day 1 2 3 4 5 Pitchers Sold X 2 4 3 9 1 1 1 1 5 25 X = 12 X = 40 N= 5 X-bar = 2.4 = 1.673

126

Next, we must calculate the standard error of the mean (x ) using the formula below x = s n = 1.673 5 = 1.673 2.24 = .747

We solve for t by: t = X-bar - est. x = 2.4 3.7 .747 = -1.3 = -1.74 .747

127

Step 6: Based on the calculated information, we offer the following summary:

Since tobs of 1.74 does not fall at or beyond |tcrit| of 2.776, we therefore fail to reject Ho

128

129

Step 7: Conclusion

Since we failed to reject the Ho, we conclude that there is no difference in the amount of pitchers sold per day this year when compared to last year

130

What if the 'Kids' corporation suspected that this year's per day pitcher sales were exceeding last year's per day pitcher sales

Step 1: Formulate Hypothesis

131

Step 2:

Step 3:

= .05

t4 as sampling distribution (this does not change)

Step 4:

Decision rule

132

Step 4: Decision rule

Referring to the student's t-chart, we find our critical value at four (4) degrees of freedom and at an alpha level of .05, one-tailed test to be 2.132 (tcrit = 2.132)

133

critical value

134

Step 4: Decision rule

135

136

Step 5: Calculation using appropriate statistical procedure

Step 6: Summary

Since tobs of -1.74 does not fall at or beyond tcrit of +2.132 we therefore fail to reject Ho

137

138

Step 7: Conclusion

Since we failed to reject the Ho, we conclude that this year's per day pitcher sales do not exceed last year's per day pitcher sales

139

There is another calculation that needs to be done to construct a confidence interval

A confidence interval generates a range estimate for the population mean () by generating a lower limit and an upper limit for possible parameters

140

No matter what type of hypothesis test you perform (one-tailed or two-tailed) the critical value in this formula is always designated as though you performed a two-tailed test In other words, the critical value in any confidence interval is a two-tailed value

The sample mean will fall outside the constructed population mean interval when the Ho is rejected on a two-tailed test A failure to reject signifies the sample mean is within the constructed population mean interval

141

For the z-test, the formula is:

95% CI = 100(1- ) = zcri (x) For the t-test, the formula is: 95% CI = 100(1- ) = tcrit(x)

142

The confidence interval calculations for our z-statistic is:

CI = 100(1- ) = zcri (x) = 7.2 1.96(.35) = 7.2 .686 = 6.514 7.2 7.886

In the previous z-test, we failed to reject Ho and therefore the sample mean (X-bar = 6.55) should fall within the confidence interval range

And it does

143

What the confidence interval relates is that, based on our random sample, we can have a 95% confidence level that the true mean will fall between 6.514 and 7.886

144

Now let us calculate the confidence interval for the t-statistic just completed

95% 95% 95% 95% 95% CI = 100(1- ) = tcrit(x) = 3.7 2.776 (.747) = 3.7 2.776 (.747) = 3.7 2.776 = 0.924 3.7 6.476

145

Since we failed to reject our Ho in the t-test problem, our sample mean of 2.4 should fall within the confidence interval range

And it does

95% = 0.924 3.7 6.476

146

IntervalRatio Data

One Sample Dependent Variable

One-Sample Z-test

One-Sample t-test

147

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