Biofuels

Potential for biomass use

Total Global Primary Energy Supply

(in ExaJoules (1018)) 2004 2030 2050 470 EJ 670 EJ 850 EJ

Actual use of biomass

2004 49 EJ

Potential of biomass
Yearly global photosynthesis ~ 4000 EJ Technical potential raw biomass (2050) 450 EJ Economical potential raw biomass (2050) 150 EJ Economical potential liquid biofuel (2050) 53 EJ

Potential for biofuel production

Current transport fuels needs: 77 EJ

Biofuels
Ethanol (2004) 0.84 EJ 0.06 EJ 9.5 Mha 0.5 Mha

Bio diesel (2003)

856 Mha would be required to meet current fuel needs

Land suitable for agricultural production

856 Mha would be required to meet current fuel needs Land suitable for agriculture *
Total used Industrialised countries Developing countries 2004 2004 2004 1540 Mha 636 Mha 904 Mha

Total suitable Industrialised countries Developing countries

4188 Mha 1406 Mha 2782 Mha

* excludes

protected areas and closed forests and is crop specific, the total land suitable for agriculture is not necessarily suitable for biofuel crops.

Most important bio-fuel crops

Crop:
Sugar cane Sugar beet Cassava Maize

Main producing countries:

Brazil / India / China / Thailand France / USA / Germany / Russia Nigeria / Brazil / Thailand / Indonesia USA / China / Brazil / Mexico

Land under irrigation (estimates):

14% / 80% / 28% / 64% 15% / 53% / 5% / 5% 0% 21% / 40% / 0% / 17% 0% 3% / 0% / 8% / 0% 10% / 0% / 0% / 29%

Oil Palm
Rapeseed Soybean

Malaysia / Indonesia / Nigeria / Thailand

China / Canada / India / Germany USA / Brazil / Argentina / China

Impacts of biofuels
Rainfed

agriculture:

Pressure on land resources

Irrigated

agriculture:

Pressure on water resources

What is the potential of the natural land resources base ?

Sugar cane

Sugar beet

What is the potential of the natural land resources base ?

Cassava

Maize

What is the potential of the natural land resources base ?

Oilpalm

Rapeseed

Soybean

Crop:

Fuel product[1]

Annual obtainable yield (l/ha)

Energy yield (GJ/ha) [2]

Evapotranspiration equivalent (litre / litre fuel)

Potential crop evapotranspira tion in mm/ha (indicative)

Irrigated or Rainfed

Rainfed conditions
Actual rainfed crop evapotranspiration in mm/ha (indicative)

Water Resource Implications under irrigated conditions

Irrigation water required (mm/ha)[3] Irrigation water required in litre / litre fuel

Sugar cane
Sugar beet

Ethanol (from sugar) Ethanol (from sugar) Ethanol (from starch) Ethanol (from starch) Bio-diesel

6000

120

2000

1400

Irrigated / Rainfed
Irrigated / Rainfed Rainfed

1000

800

1333

7000

140

786

650

450

400

571

Cassava

4000

80

2250

1000
Irrigated / Rainfed Rainfed

900

Maize Oil palm Rapeseed / Mustard Soybean

3500 5500

70 193

1357 2364

550 1500

400 1300

300 0

857 0

Bio-diesel Bio-diesel

1200 400

42 14

3333 10000

500 500

Rainfed Rainfed

400 400

0 0

0 0

[1] Energy density: Bio-diesel 35 MJ/l Ethanol 20 MJ/l [2] FAO (2006b). Starch market adds value to cassava, on-line available at: http://www.fao.org/ag/magazine/0610sp1.htm. Global Petroleum Club, Energy Content of Biofuel, on-line available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_content_of_Biofuel. Marris, E. (2006). Drink the best and drive the rest. Nature, 444, 670672, 7 December. USDA (2006). The Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sugar in the United States, on-line available at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/EthanolSugarFeasibilityReport3.pdf. [3] On the assumption of 50% irrigation efficiency

A few numbers
Water

needed to produce:

1 kilo of wheat: 1 000 litres 1 kilo of meat (beef): 15 000 litres

Daily

water requirements per person:

Drinking: 2-3 litres Domestic needs: 20300 litres Food: 2 000-3 000 litres
with

2 500 litres of water, we can produce:

food for one person for one day 1 litre of biofuel

What is the potential of the natural water resources base ?

Near East and North Africa
Water withdrawal 2000

South Asia

Water withdrawal 2030 Renewable water resources

Sub-Saharan Africa East and Southeast Asia Latin America and the Caribbean

20

00

40

00

60

00

80

00

10

00 0

12

00 0

14

00 0

16

00 0

What is the potential of the natural water resource base ?

Biofuel and water use (2005)

Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

Projections for water demand - 2030

Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

NAS report on water and biofuels in the United States (2007):

Currently, biofuels are a marginal additional stress on water supplies at the regional to local scale. However, significant acceleration of biofuels production could cause much greater water quantity problems depending on where the crops are grown. Growing biofuel crops in areas requiring additional irrigation water from already depleted aquifers is a major concern. The growth of biofuels in the United States has probably already affected water quality because of the large amount of N and P required to produce corn. If projected future increases in the use of corn for ethanol production do occur, the increase in harm to water quality could be considerable.

Conclusions

World water system already under heavy stress due to agriculture and other uses Agriculture main water user (70%) Future water demand for agriculture in the rise Climate change likely to result in increased demand for irrigated water Bioenergy likely to add to pressure on water:
depending on type of crop depending on farming system: rainfed/irrigated depending on region

China, India, already facing serious water constraints Keep an eye on sugarcane