Professional Documents
Culture Documents
105.05
211.4
36.5
39.0
14,463
Companies funded
Went public Were acquired Went out of business Remaining
Aggregate Return*
Success Rate*
192.7 x 4.5 x
100% 67%
88% 60%
Attention matters Board responsibility = better due diligence Quick money makers dont work Too many passive deals last few years One seed per year works for me
Funding to Milestones
aka Old-Fashioned Venture Capital
Idea is Feasible Technology Works A Customer Buys
P(success) = 80% Reqd IRR = 30%
Valuation
P(success) = 50% Reqd IRR = 50%
Risk () Capital
Seed Funding R&D Capital Go-to-Market Captial Expansion Captial
5
Valuation
Risk () Capital
Fully Fund (.pray.) IPO
6
Date
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-95
IRR
101% 70% 50% 32%
Multiple
32.53 8.13 3.30 1.32
$ 25 Million
Date
Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01
IRR
79% 65% 59% 52%
Multiple
18.37 7.35 4.04 1.52
$200
Total Private Capital $ 100 Million
?
8
VC Behavior
Funding size? Corrections for the past bubble Entrepreneurial incentives
9
$90.1
$91.6
$48.2
$32.1
$7.6
$6.8
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Investment
Fundraising
Source: VentureOne
10
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
11
Uninvested Venture Capital Years of Uninvested Capital Years of Uninvested Capital at 1995 Investment Pace
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
12
Source: VentureOne
13
4.5
2.8
2.9
Source: VentureOne
14
Systems (Optical)
Company Juniper Siara Cerent Corvis Infinera Concentric OnFiber Coreon CoSine Extreme SS8 Lightera Valiant Kymata Cenix Silicon Spice IPVerse Sigma
Return IF HELD 300x 14x 228x* 3.6x Too early 12x* Too early 0.3x 0.9x 14x Too early 12x* 0x 0.7x Too early 12x* 0x Too early
15
Software
16
17
18
19
21
?
22
Intel
87
87
88
88
89
89
90
90
91
91
92
92
93 9/ 07 /3
0/
1/
9/
9/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
/3
/3
/2
/2
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
/2
0/
93
23
The value of winners will exceed the cumulative market cap of the entire sector today
M&A Game is hard to predict
24
Fundamentals of Demand
The Enterprise Carrier services purchase decisions based on payback period Paybacks< 1 yr => Continued demand 1% increase in IT = 1.5-2% decrease in G&A IT spending increased from 0.5% to 3.5% of sales in 90s The Service Provider Enterprise demand => need for equipment purchases Consumption of bandwidth + shifting computing paradigm makes for new revenue opportunities Systems for old revenue dont support new revenue & cost points =>new equipment purchases
26
28
VC Euphoria NOT
Hard ROI retrospective vs. prospective savings Lack of Human Capital
30
31
Wake Up Call
What we take for Granted Irrelevance & the other things
Relationships: Friends & Family Satisfaction, Enjoyment & Contentment Feeling valuable: making a difference
32
2002 The New Yorker Collection from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.
Comments? vkhosla@kpcb.com
33
Tomorrows Markets
34
(Broadcast)
35
Operations Systems
Cost of Operations:
start/add/change/delete/operate/update
Fluid Resource allocation Fluid service provisioning Hard ROI: Cost savings & Revenue Generation Total Cost of Ownership
39
Platform(s)
Mainframe/ IBM era Minicomputer/ DEC era Workstation/ PC era
1970-1990
1980-
1990-
2000-
New network operations systems must Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio be designed for Cisco era adaptability and change (new equipment, Broadband packet 1:1000? people/machine ratio multiple vendors, new service offerings/ networks ? provisioning).
40
41
42
43
Other
Remote Services multi-trillion global market Collaboration Zaplet Nano
44
Investment Conclusions
Internet is changing the model of computing Software architecture of the internet will become the software architecture for the enterprise Computing infrastructure (datacenter) will be the next surprise; fueled by ASP Services, outsourced compute tone, and internet geoscale The real-time enterprise will drive carrier demand at increasing rates of growth & create Oracle/SAP scale companies Operations systems to reduce operating cost & total cost of ownership will be a major issue/opportunity Evernet everyplace, every time, every device thru mobile IP (but not a lot of money for new ventures)
45
But.
Nano is approaching bubble status Storage has its Ightlays
47
48
50
Hot Startup:
ight-Lay is revolutionizing the future of telecommunications by enabling high-bandwidth, low-cost optical MAN infrastructures that are robust and scalable enough to handle data and video traffic, while also supporting legacy voice. ight-Lay combines the intelligence and switching capability of a data network with the reliability and protection performance of SONET. The result is multiservice access and transport with unprecedented scalability, provisioning flexibility and service intelligence. With a significantly smaller capital outlay than competing products and fewer management requirements than other optical networking products, ight-Lay delivers the solution carriers need for the new optical age.
51
52
How I turned
53
Be Right
Buy low, Sell high
Join Bandwagon
54
Is Storage Here??
Be Contrarian
Join Bandwagon
55
59
61
62
COW Parts:
Raw Storage Costs
$.01-.005/MB
System Software
$.08-$.10/MB $. 025 Annual amortz.
Operational Costs
Annual* $.08-$.10/MB
*Assumes one Sys Admin per 5 TB storage managed 20% Maintenance cost $1000/month std rack hosting cost
Filet Mignion:
Zambeel
Insertion Strategy
More important than ever! Little customer urgency for new technology Increased focus on COW, not just equipment/software costs
Risk Mitigation
66
Why does that work for Google but Sun, NetApp, others are selling real product to smart people?
Why do enterprises not want revolution Linux, GE, goal or a tactic?
67
The shuttle Challenger: designed not to fail Biological systems: designed to fail gracefully Complex systems: evolutionary approach
68
Valuation Rationalization
Keep changing the denominator
P/AM*
P/S/G P/S
Market Value
P/E/G
P/E Time
P/Cash
*Price to Addressable Market
70
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
4 3 2 1 0
Source: Archived press releases from website of a public optical networking company 71
72
Connections in London
In 1885, Yale students who were getting more light than they relished chopped down an electric pole erected at the corner of the campus
74
Nobody knew early in 1921 where radio was really headed. Everything about broadcasting was uncertain. For my own part I expected that since it was a form of telephony, and since we were in the business of furnishing wires for telephony, we were sure to be involved in broadcasting somehow.
Walter Gifford, future President of AT&T, 1921
75
?
76
?
77
Intel
87
87
88
88
89
89
90
90
91
91
92
92
93 9/ 07 /3
0/
1/
9/
9/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
/3
/3
/2
/2
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
/3
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
07
01
/2
0/
93
78
The value of winners will exceed the cumulative market cap of the entire sector today
M&A Game is hard to predict
79
Fundamentals of Demand
The Enterprise Carrier services purchase decisions based on payback period Paybacks< 1 yr => Continued demand 1% increase in IT = 1.5-2% decrease in G&A IT spending increased from 0.5% to 3.5% of sales in 90s The Service Provider Enterprise demand => need for equipment purchases Consumption of bandwidth + shifting computing paradigm makes for new revenue opportunities Systems for old revenue dont support new revenue & cost points =>new equipment purchases
80
Comments?
Vkhosla@kpcb.com
81
82
Past Assumptions This wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?
-David Sarnoffs associates in response to his urgings for investment in Radio in the 1920s
83
Past Assumptions
84
Past Assumptions
The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered a means of communication.
-Western Union Internal Memo, 1876
85
Past Assumptions
86
87