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2002 The New Yorker Collection from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.

Ahead to the Past!


Next-Gen, Old-Fashioned Venture
Vinod Khosla
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers vkhosla@kpcb.com
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The VC LANDSCAPE in 2000


1980 # of VC Firms in Existence # of Professionals # of First Time VC Funds Raised # of VC Funds Raised This Year VC Capital Raised This Year ($B) 87 1035 24 57 2.08 1990 375 3794 14 82 3.20 2000 693 8368 164 497

105.05
211.4

Avg VC Fund Size Raised This Year ($M)

36.5

39.0

Source: NVCA Yearbook 2001; Venture Economics

The Illiquid Bulge


From 1995-2000:

14,463

Companies funded
Went public Were acquired Went out of business Remaining

978 1,529 1,180 10,776

Source: Venture Economics; Venture Source

The Beauty of Small Numbers


(And Board Seats)
Initial investment: $100k to $1M, board
Date Jul-95 Jun-96 Apr-97 Sep-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Jun-00 Jan-01 Apr-95 May-96 Jul-96 May-97 Apr-98 May-98 Jul-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Nov-99 Dec-99 Dec-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Mar-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Jul-01 Company Name Excite (@home) Juniper Cerent (Cisco) Corio Siara (Redback) Asera Centrata Infinera Concentric (XO) Viant Cybermedia Extreme Networks Silicon Spice (Broadcom) Corvis Lightera (Ciena) CoSine BBO Zaplet Valiant Zambeel OnFiber Coreon Kymata (Alcatel) Cenix SS8 Kovio

Aggregate Return*

Success Rate*

< $1M (n=8) > $1M (n=18)

192.7 x 4.5 x

100% 67%

Initial investment: $2.5m to $16M

On board (n=16) 70.8 x Not on board (n=10) 8.0 x Conclusions


88% 60%

Attention matters Board responsibility = better due diligence Quick money makers dont work Too many passive deals last few years One seed per year works for me

Red = Board Seat

4 * Numbers include current private companies at cost of fmv

Funding to Milestones
aka Old-Fashioned Venture Capital
Idea is Feasible Technology Works A Customer Buys
P(success) = 80% Reqd IRR = 30%

Valuation
P(success) = 50% Reqd IRR = 50%

P(success) = 30% Reqd IRR = 100%

P(success) = 40% Reqd IRR = 70%

Risk () Capital
Seed Funding R&D Capital Go-to-Market Captial Expansion Captial
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The Fully Funded Folly


Idea is Feasible Technology Works A Customer Buys

Valuation

Risk () Capital
Fully Fund (.pray.) IPO
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A Generic Early 90s Model


Round Type 1 Seed 2 1st 3 2nd 4 3rd 5 IPO Amount Raised (MM) $ $ $ $ 0.50 3.00 8.00 13.50 Pre-Money Valuation (MM) $ $ $ $ $ 2 10 32 100 150

Date
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-95

IRR
101% 70% 50% 32%

Multiple
32.53 8.13 3.30 1.32

Total Private Capital

$ 25 Million

A Generic Late 90s Model


Round Type 1 Seed 2 1st 3 2nd 4 3rd 5 IPO Amount Raised (MM) $ $ $ $ 5 10 25 60 Pre-Money Valuation (MM) $ $ $ $ $ 35 100 200 600 1000

Date
Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01

IRR
79% 65% 59% 52%

Multiple
18.37 7.35 4.04 1.52

$200
Total Private Capital $ 100 Million

?
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Why Ahead to the Past?


We cant make money with Early 90s IPO market and Late 90s Cash Burns Some correction already
Private Valuations Rent (in Silicon Valley)

Some corrections yet to occur


Salaries Focus Attention

VC Behavior
Funding size? Corrections for the past bubble Entrepreneurial incentives
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The Committed Capital Bubble


Fundraising vs. Amount Invested
$100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $12.2
$9.8

$90.1
$91.6

$50.5 $29.8 $17.0


$12.8 $17.6 $47.2

$48.2

$32.1

$7.6
$6.8

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Investment

Fundraising
Source: VentureOne

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The Committed Capital Bubble


40 35
Accumulated Capital Over-commitments ($B)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995

Uninvested Venture Capital

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001
11

Total Over-committed Capital for all Private Equity = $100B


Source: VentureOne

The Committed Capital Bubble


40 35
Accumulated Capital Over-commitments ($B)

Uninvested Venture Capital Years of Uninvested Capital Years of Uninvested Capital at 1995 Investment Pace

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001
12

Source: VentureOne

The VC Firm Model


1.5-2 ventures/partner/year $8-10M invested per venture (3 rounds) New fund every 2 years $12-20M per partner per year $24-40M per partner per fund

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2001 IPO Companies Are More Mature


Time From Initial Equity Funding to IPO
5 4 3 2 1 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
4 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

4.5

2.8

2.9

Source: VentureOne

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What about the Telecom Blowout?


Category Systems (Electronic) On the board

Systems (Optical)

Services Software Systems (Electronic)

Company Juniper Siara Cerent Corvis Infinera Concentric OnFiber Coreon CoSine Extreme SS8 Lightera Valiant Kymata Cenix Silicon Spice IPVerse Sigma

Return IF HELD 300x 14x 228x* 3.6x Too early 12x* Too early 0.3x 0.9x 14x Too early 12x* 0x 0.7x Too early 12x* 0x Too early
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NOT on the board

Systems (Optical) Services Components

Software

* Valued at time of acquisition

Case Study: OnFiber


Management team saw a need to cut cash burn in January 2001 Reduced burn from $5M plan to $1-1.5M per month Turned down capital from investors pushing get big fast strategy Got out of obligations early Used 50% IRR hurdle on all new projects Focused on getting critical mass in 6 metros rather than 26 OnFiber Teams Results:
Current burn = <$1m/month $30M in the bank, no debt Acquiring assets for pennies on the dollar

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Bottom-Fishing Rarely Works


Old joke about a restaurant:

The food is horrible but its all-you-can-eat!


Too many recaps of uninteresting companies Mercy killing can be a good thing The good news: a handful of high-valuation private companies indicates quality is still being chased.

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Dot-Com Profitability: Less is More


An Empirical Fact: Good financial results out of several consumer-focused internet-based companies Positive growth and EBITDA Amazon Blue Nile eHealthInsurance Autotrader Google

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Wrong Goals: Time-to-IPO?

No optical systems boards from mid 98 to 2001

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Avoid the Conventions


Profits in telecom: Invest early & significantly Less can be more - Small is Beautiful Attention (and board seats) matter Bottom fishing does it work?

Mercy-kill the uninteresting companies!


HOT is NOT good: Dotcom, Telecom, Nano?

IPO is NOT a goal : building a company is!


Stock Market is not Validation: Corio Need to bleed off the oversupply of capital
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How Did We Get Here?


The Past Five Years
Fundamental Opportunity Greed Funding the ight-Lays Irrational Exuberance : IPO goal Escalating Expectations & Hype: The Khosla Bubble Fear Dislocated Business Plans Flight to Quality, Defensibility, Economic Contributions?

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Many Companies Will Not Keep Up


Leading Computer Vendors (Last Generation) Leading Computer Vendors (Current)

IBM H-P Data General DEC

Sperry Univac Wang Cray

IBM Sun Dell Compaq H-P


Leading Communications Vendors/Carriers (Next Generation)

Leading Communications Vendors/Carriers

Lucent Nortel Cisco Tellabs

Alcatel AT&T Sprint Worldcom

?
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Old vs. New in the Mainframe to PC Transition


40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Digital Equipment Corp. NCR Amdahl Data General

Capital fled legacy systems

01 /3 0/ 07 87 /3 1 01 /87 /2 9/ 07 88 /2 9 01 /88 /3 1/ 07 89 /3 1 01 /89 /3 1/ 07 90 /3 1 01 /90 /3 1/ 07 91 /3 1 01 /91 /3 1/ 07 92 /3 1 01 /92 /2 9/ 07 93 /3 0/ 93

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0

New winners emerged


This time the stakes are larger!

Compaq 30.0 20.0

Intel

Microsoft 10.0 0.0

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Source: Thomas Weisel Partners

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The Investors Dilemma


Expect more losers than winners Many will lose everything More will be won than lost

The value of winners will exceed the cumulative market cap of the entire sector today
M&A Game is hard to predict
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Winners Take (Almost) All


5 years out, the groups market cap has grown

Industry Structure Today

But leaders far exceed the also-rans


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Fundamentals of Demand
The Enterprise Carrier services purchase decisions based on payback period Paybacks< 1 yr => Continued demand 1% increase in IT = 1.5-2% decrease in G&A IT spending increased from 0.5% to 3.5% of sales in 90s The Service Provider Enterprise demand => need for equipment purchases Consumption of bandwidth + shifting computing paradigm makes for new revenue opportunities Systems for old revenue dont support new revenue & cost points =>new equipment purchases
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Partial View: New Areas for Investment


Materials
But only with an economic advantage in an application that matters Beware the Nano bubble!
Probably more companies named Nano______ in 2002 than named _____Light in 2000

Information Tech: removing the COW Personalized Medicine .???


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The HALF-EMPTY view


Technology led slowdown Consumer Reaction pile-on Sept 11 The WAR 2002 is history! Financings Unavailable Stay afloat, tread water, hunker down

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The HALF-FULL view


Less competition Time to develop technology Focus: sustainable advantage, value-add Better critique, Better ventures, Higher Bar Longer Term View/Horizon Lower Funding => Lower Risk
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RECOIL: The New World


Reaction to the excesses Unskilled, Unthinking eBusiness investment Skepticism & Negativism: Prolonged Cycle

VC Euphoria NOT
Hard ROI retrospective vs. prospective savings Lack of Human Capital

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The Weather Forecast


Rate of change will accelerate - life will be more complex, busier . . . Adaptability, agility & momentum will be the key to success! Innovation, opportunities & entrepreneurship will thrive Disruption will be the order of the day Fun, fortunes & failure will be in abundance

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Wake Up Call
What we take for Granted Irrelevance & the other things
Relationships: Friends & Family Satisfaction, Enjoyment & Contentment Feeling valuable: making a difference

Value System Books: Dont Sweat The Small Stuff

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2002 The New Yorker Collection from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.

Comments? vkhosla@kpcb.com

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Tomorrows Markets

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Network Issues & Trends


Everything over IP Two layer network (IP/Bus Class IP) Value added services Internet based SW architecture The New IP Skills shortage (ATM/FR) Infrastructure Mission critical technology Rapid, unpredictable growth (VOIP) Legacy encapsulation

(Broadcast)

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IT Issues & Trends


Skills shortage Legacy architectures & islands vs dynamic architecture needs Mission Critical Technology Changing applications mix Systematic productivity : The Real-Time Enterprise Random acts of productivity: everyday processes Technology based competition Operations Cost
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Results: Market Opportunities


Outsourcing & growth => a new (datacenter) infrastructure Value-added Services => new programmable network Operations cost & Complexity => OMAP focus

A new IT architecture => Real Time information base


Skills shortage & complexity => ASP, services Dynamic demand => Compute utilities IT going from 0.5% to 3.5% to ?% of sales
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Real Time Enterprise


Ciscoize and Dellize Every Business Adaptive architecture, evolvable applications Configuration NOT customization Federation NOT integration Architecture to connect architectures Rapid , incremental implementation Beyond database to an information base Instantaneous financials, metrics, supply chain, customer support . Spontaneous transaction flow and information transparency throughout the extended enterprise
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Operations Systems
Cost of Operations:
start/add/change/delete/operate/update

Fluid Resource allocation Fluid service provisioning Hard ROI: Cost savings & Revenue Generation Total Cost of Ownership

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One Analysts Explanation:


Time
1960-1980

Platform(s)
Mainframe/ IBM era Minicomputer/ DEC era Workstation/ PC era

Network Operations Model


10:1 people/machine ratio
Old network management systems were single vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid five-year preplanned networks.

1970-1990

1:1 people/machine ratio

1980-

1:10 people/machine ratio

1990-

2000-

New network operations systems must Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio be designed for Cisco era adaptability and change (new equipment, Broadband packet 1:1000? people/machine ratio multiple vendors, new service offerings/ networks ? provisioning).
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Source: Paul Johnson

New Area: Virtual Computer


A Computer Distributed Over the Internet
Networks of computers as the Virtual Computer Scalability of hardware - add & delete Self management Geographic distribution Load balancing, caching, COS, services Resilience Network operating system
SETI, Napster, Routers

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Case Study: Router Networks


Behave as one machine System self-adjusts to node failures Capacity can be added/deleted self organizing Geographically disbursed Managed failure modes

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New Areas: Network Services


The Decomposed Computer Architecture
Storage services Database services Web servers/HTTP servers TCP/IP session servers Application servers Composite services
Replication Load balancing Distribution

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Other
Remote Services multi-trillion global market Collaboration Zaplet Nano

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Investment Conclusions
Internet is changing the model of computing Software architecture of the internet will become the software architecture for the enterprise Computing infrastructure (datacenter) will be the next surprise; fueled by ASP Services, outsourced compute tone, and internet geoscale The real-time enterprise will drive carrier demand at increasing rates of growth & create Oracle/SAP scale companies Operations systems to reduce operating cost & total cost of ownership will be a major issue/opportunity Evernet everyplace, every time, every device thru mobile IP (but not a lot of money for new ventures)
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Fundamental Contributors: Investment Areas


Semiconductors

Software in hot boxes


Physics / Optical /Nanotechnology ASP

Nexgen telecom services


Networks: the programmable network Real Time Enterprise

Infrastructure revamping datacenter architectures


Operations Systems
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But.
Nano is approaching bubble status Storage has its Ightlays

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The Storwidth Tsunami ?


Vinod Khosla Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers vkhosla@kpcb.com March, 2002
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Hot New Startup: Orstay


Orstay is pioneering a new breed of network storage server that offers unlimited scalability and industry-leading performance in a system that is far easier and more costeffective to manage than today's solutions By offering users the performance and functionality of a Storage Area Network (SAN) with the simplicity and ease of Network Attached Storage (NAS). Our product is an integrated hardware and software solution that operates over standard Ethernet networks and supports both block and file transfers Our product team possess a unique understanding of the requirements of the data center. In addition, we understand today's growing need for products that offer high performance in the data center with a focus on high availability, scalability and interoperability.

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Hot Startup:
ight-Lay is revolutionizing the future of telecommunications by enabling high-bandwidth, low-cost optical MAN infrastructures that are robust and scalable enough to handle data and video traffic, while also supporting legacy voice. ight-Lay combines the intelligence and switching capability of a data network with the reliability and protection performance of SONET. The result is multiservice access and transport with unprecedented scalability, provisioning flexibility and service intelligence. With a significantly smaller capital outlay than competing products and fewer management requirements than other optical networking products, ight-Lay delivers the solution carriers need for the new optical age.

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The Saga of Ight-Lay


In 2000 at an optical investment conference. Took one line from the website of each metro optical company presenting Concatenated them as elevator pitch for hot startup Ight-Lay Put presentation on KPCB website Got plenty of resumes and investment interest

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How to Lose a Lot of Money

How I turned

$100,000 in Stock into $980 in Cash in


Just Six Months!
By I.M. Broke

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Being Right is Insufficient


Be Wrong
Be Contrarian Buy low, Sell low

Be Right
Buy low, Sell high

Join Bandwagon

Buy high, Sell low

Buy high, Sell high

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Avoiding the Bubble


Be Wrong Be Right Buy low, Sell high

Is Storage Here??

Be Contrarian

Buy low, Sell low

Join Bandwagon

Buy high, Sell low

Buy high, Sell high

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Even in HOT Areas ..Winners Take (Almost) All

5 years out, the groups market cap has grown

Industry Structure Today

But leaders far exceed the also-rans


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Avoiding the bandwagon


What assumptions are others making? Are there scenarios where those assumptions are wrong?

Cerent vs. Ightlay


Brocade vs. Orstay Significant technical contribution Enabling a significant new capability
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More Recent Assumptions


All Optical Networks, higher speeds are cheaper No vision before its time: MEMS, 40G Scalability is more important than cost
In optics In storage

Storewidth: performance, SAN, Greenfield Networks Cost of capital


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Optical Hype Versus Reality


Optics will transform the transport layer ONLY Since packet switching is necessary for any-any interactive connectivity, an all-optical network remains an optical illusion Value added services will be done electronically

DWDM translate from long haul to metro?

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Storage Hype Versus Reality


Endless need and limitless opportunities Declining cost of storage: only in raw bits Big silicon, hot boxes, SAN vs NAS The big COW Revolution or Evolution: Insertion strategies matter
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The Good News: Opportunities Exist


The COW Insertion of Technology Googlizing

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Watch the COW

COW = Cost of Ownership

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COW Parts:
Raw Storage Costs
$.01-.005/MB

4 yr Cost of Storage: $.45-.50/MB!


Filet Mignion: Operational Costs make up 80% of total cost (4X cost of initial investment) Baby Back Ribs: Not everybody needs a steak (PFSB)
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System Software
$.08-$.10/MB $. 025 Annual amortz.

Operational Costs
Annual* $.08-$.10/MB

*Assumes one Sys Admin per 5 TB storage managed 20% Maintenance cost $1000/month std rack hosting cost

Filet Mignion:

Zambeel

Zambeels significant new technology


contribution attacks the priciest portion of the COW

With 4 way independently scalable NAS


Dynamic Capacity Allocation; Zero system downtime when changing capacity of user or system Fine grain and fluid assignment of throughput performance at user or file level NFS file system to 100s terabytes 100s of simultaneous domains on same FS
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Baby Back Ribs: Personal File System Backup

Personal File System Backup (low QOS!)


Super Low Cost, low performance , High Latency Back Up Seamlessly convert data in repository from Windows FS to a more scalable FS Snap Shot and delta Backup capability to reduce backup processor/bandwidth requirements Management/Administration layer to handle compilation of 1000s of desktops and provide search capability.
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Insertion Strategy
More important than ever! Little customer urgency for new technology Increased focus on COW, not just equipment/software costs

Risk Mitigation

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Googlizing the compute infrastructure


Cheap PCs in parallel being a better outcome than expensive, specialized hardware
Grid computing Low cost units

Why does that work for Google but Sun, NetApp, others are selling real product to smart people?
Why do enterprises not want revolution Linux, GE, goal or a tactic?

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Reliability - A New Approach

The shuttle Challenger: designed not to fail Biological systems: designed to fail gracefully Complex systems: evolutionary approach

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Current Financial Market Dynamics


Funding the Or-stays and ight-Lays Hype or reality real markets? (Incubators, exchanges) Discrimination & typecasting (USIX, CRIO) Fear vs Greed ; Optimism vs. Pessimism Capital Supply perception or reality? (CLECS) Analyst Phenomenon
Escalating expectations : Guaranteed disappointment
Whisper numbers : need for a new rationality

Khosla Bubble : luck, values, belief system


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Valuation Rationalization
Keep changing the denominator

P/AM*
P/S/G P/S

Market Value

P/E/G
P/E Time

P/Cash
*Price to Addressable Market
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Press Release Bubble


5
# Non-Financial Press Releases (3 month rolling average)

5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

4 3 2 1 0

Press Releases NASDAQ

Source: Archived press releases from website of a public optical networking company 71

Fe b M -99 ay Au -99 g N -99 ov Fe -99 b M -00 ay Au -00 g N -00 ov 1- 00 F 1- eb M 1- ay A 1- ug N 2- ov Fe b

Investors Weather Forecast

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How Did We Get Here?


The Past Five Years Fundamental Opportunity Greed Irrational Exuberance : IPO goal Escalating Expectations Fear Dislocated Business Plans

Flight to Quality, Defensibility, Economic Contributions?


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New Technology has a History


7,000,000

Connections in London

6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 90 93 95 99

In 1885, Yale students who were getting more light than they relished chopped down an electric pole erected at the corner of the campus
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Source: When Old Technologies Were New

We Cant Predict What Will Happen.

Nobody knew early in 1921 where radio was really headed. Everything about broadcasting was uncertain. For my own part I expected that since it was a form of telephony, and since we were in the business of furnishing wires for telephony, we were sure to be involved in broadcasting somehow.
Walter Gifford, future President of AT&T, 1921

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Many Companies Will Not Keep Up


Leading Computer Vendors (Last Generation) Leading Computer Vendors (Current)

IBM H-P Data General DEC

Sperry Univac Wang Cray

IBM Sun Dell Compaq H-P


Leading Communications Vendors/Carriers (Next Generation)

Leading Communications Vendors/Carriers

Lucent Nortel Cisco Tellabs

Alcatel AT&T Sprint Worldcom

?
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Many Companies Will Not Keep Up


Leading Computer Vendors (Last Generation) Leading Computer Vendors (Current)

IBM H-P Data General DEC


Leading Storage Vendors

Sperry Univac Wang Cray

IBM Sun Dell Compaq H-P


Some Wont Make it Others Will Emerge as leaders

New class of Vendors

NetApp EMC IBM Hitachi Brocade Compaq

Zambeel BlueArc Sanera Nishan TrueSAN

ER? BrokeAid? BlowUp?

?
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Old vs. New in the Mainframe to PC Transition


40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Digital Equipment Corp. NCR Amdahl Data General

Capital fled legacy systems

01 /3 0/ 07 87 /3 1 01 /87 /2 9/ 07 88 /2 9 01 /88 /3 1/ 07 89 /3 1 01 /89 /3 1/ 07 90 /3 1 01 /90 /3 1/ 07 91 /3 1 01 /91 /3 1/ 07 92 /3 1 01 /92 /2 9/ 07 93 /3 0/ 93

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0

New winners emerged


This time the stakes are larger!

Compaq 30.0 20.0

Intel

Microsoft 10.0 0.0

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Source: Thomas Weisel Partners

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The Investors Dilemma


Expect more losers than winners Many will lose everything More will be won than lost

The value of winners will exceed the cumulative market cap of the entire sector today
M&A Game is hard to predict
79

Fundamentals of Demand
The Enterprise Carrier services purchase decisions based on payback period Paybacks< 1 yr => Continued demand 1% increase in IT = 1.5-2% decrease in G&A IT spending increased from 0.5% to 3.5% of sales in 90s The Service Provider Enterprise demand => need for equipment purchases Consumption of bandwidth + shifting computing paradigm makes for new revenue opportunities Systems for old revenue dont support new revenue & cost points =>new equipment purchases
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Comments?
Vkhosla@kpcb.com

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Past Assumptions This wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?
-David Sarnoffs associates in response to his urgings for investment in Radio in the 1920s

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Past Assumptions

Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?


-Harry M. Warner, Warner Bros, 1927

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Past Assumptions

The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered a means of communication.
-Western Union Internal Memo, 1876

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Past Assumptions

There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home.


-Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 1977

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