The True Results of the 2004

Philippine Presidential Elections

based on the NAMFREL Tally
By Roberto Verzola
published in Kasarinlan (Vol. 19 No. 2)
Journal of Third World Studies
University of the Philippines

Comparing Congress,
NAMFREL tallies

Congress tally considered complete

32.3 million votes counted
GMA lead over FPJ is 1.1M votes (3.48%)
Average vote turnout: 149.0 votes per precinct
NAMFREL tally was 82.98% complete
26.4 million votes counted
GMA lead over FPJ is 680,922 votes (2.58%)
Average vote turnout: 145.2 votes per precinct

Can we compare the percentages?

Of course, we can!
Exit polls and surveys have different numbers of
respondents (1,500 to 5,000), but their percentage
results can be compared to each other and to the
final election results.
The NAMFREL database is just an exit poll with
more respondents (26.4 million).
In Europe and elsewhere, exit polls have
consistently predicted election winners

ERs nearer the truth than COCs

216,500+ election
returns (ERs)
Went thru few hands
(precinct level only)
Unofficial results are
less important
Open tally by teachers
and volunteers more
credible

Only 177 Certificates

of Canvass
Went thru precinct,
municipal, then
provincial canvassers
Cheaters focus on
official results
COMELEC provincial
officials less credible

Finding #1:
Huge discrepancies exist
between the Congress
and NAMFREL tallies

Definition of GMA % Margin

GMA votes FPJ votes
----------------------------------------------GMA + FPJ + Lacson + Roco + Vnueva
or
GMA Lead
-------------------Total votes

Table 2. Mga probinsiyang grabe ang dayaan, top 10

Probinsya
Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya
22.8%
-52.3%
75.1%
Basilan
36.3%
-29.1%
65.4%
Sultan Kudarat
46.8%
-11.1%
58.0%
Lanao del Sur
12.0%
-29.3%
41.3%
Sulu
-18.5%
-54.3%
35.9%
Tawi-Tawi
48.3%
29.7%
18.7%
Maguindanao
-2.3%
-18.4%
16.2%
Lanao del Norte
-13.9%
-22.6%
8.7%
Sarangani
Romblon
-4.0%
-10.4%
6.4%
-25.3%
-29.6%
4.3%
Zambales
Nota: Sa yellow, nabago ang panalo.
Ang unang 8 probinsiya ay nasa Mindanao.

Table 1. Lamang ni GMA kay FPJ

Rehiyon
Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya
Mindanao
6.9%
-1.5%
8.4%
ARMM
31.3%
-19.2%
50.5%
C.Mindanao
-7.0%
-20.5%
13.5%
13.4%
9.3%
4.1%
CAR
N.Mindanao
0.8%
-3.0%
3.9%
W.Mindanao
8.6%
4.9%
3.8%
CARAGA
24.0%
22.7%
1.3%
S.Mindanao
-0.6%
-1.2%
0.6%
Nota: Sa yellow, nabago ang panalo
Congress:
GMA won in 9 of 16 regions nationwide
GMA won in 4 of 6 regions in Mindanao
Namfrel:
FPJ won in 4 of 16 regions nationwide
FPJ won in 4 of 6 regions in Mindanao
The 8.4% total discrepancy means around 600,000 votes.

Table 3. Diperensya sa dami ng boto bawat presinto

Nadagdag
Rehiyon
Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya na boto
149.0
145.2
3.9
837,454
Pilipinas
153.4
99.8
53.6
307,484
ARMM
167.7
147.0
20.7
235,563
Ilocos
151.0
136.7
14.3
236,985
C.Visayas
146.6
138.2
8.3
88,039
E.Visayas
140.7
132.9
7.8
70,930
C.Minda
152.1
147.3
4.8
58,822
Bicol
153.2
156.8
-3.6
-26,064
C.Valley
Nota: Sa yellow, 10 boto o higit pa ang nadagdag bawat presinto.

Conclusion #1:
GMA could not have
won by 1.1 million.
The worst cheating
occurred in Mindanao.

Finding #2:
The NAMFREL count
tallied pro-GMA regions
more completely than proFPJ regions, biasing the
count in favor of GMA.

Consider a hypothetical case

Candidates A and B evenly matched

Two electoral regions
Region 1: Candidate A leads B
Region 2: Candidate B leads A
Their leads cancel each other out
In an honest tally, it is a tie all the way

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
600
600
0

#4
#5
800 1,000
800 1,000
0
0

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
600
600
0

#4
#5
800 1,000
800 1,000
0
0

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
600
600
0

#4
#5
800 1,000
800 1,000
0
0

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
600
600
0

#4
#5
800 1,000
800 1,000
0
0

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
600
600
0

#4
#5
800 1,000
800 1,000
0
0

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
600
600
0

#4
#5
800 1,000
800 1,000
0
0

Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
400
400
0

#3
#4
#5
600 1,000 1,000
600 800 1,000
0 200
0

Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
#3
#4
#5
400 1,000 1,000 1,000
400 600 800 1,000
0 400 200
0

Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count

Reports
A's lead, Reg. 1
B's lead, Reg. 2
A's lead, Overall

#1
200
200
0

#2
#3
#4
#5
400 1,000 1,000 1,000
400 600 800 1,000
0 400 200
0

Aborting the tally at 80% completion

makes A appear to be the winner.

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400

-200

Report No.

81

77

73

69

65

61

57

53

49

45

41

37

33

29

25

21

17

13

200
1

Thousands

GMA Lead

GMA Lead Over FPJ

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

GMA Area
Votes not
FPJ Area
Votes not
(Lead in 000's) % done counted (Lead in 000's) % done counted
C.Visayas (1,293) 101%
-5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88%
635,610
W.Visayas (757)
83%
490,350 NCR (290)
74%
1,038,329
CARAGA (144)
73%
233,300 C.Minda (129)
52%
569,133
Bicol (71)
95%
69,318 C.Valley (112)
82%
246,182
OAV (47)
100%
0 Ilocos (98)
88%
199,165
CAR (42)
79%
121,735 C.Luzon (70)
80%
793,498
E.Visayas (42)
104%
-50,885 ARMM (68)
75%
109,193
W.Minda (31)
85%
171,417 N.Minda (39)
87%
203,611
86%
S.Minda (16)
211,709
All GMA Areas
1,029,243 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up
after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Conclusion #2
The NAMFREL count understated
the number of FPJ votes and gave
us a wrong picture of the results.
Thus, the cheating was worse than
what the Congress-NAMFREL
discrepancies show.

Can we still get the truth?

Yes, it is possible!

We must reinterpret the

NAMFREL database as an exit
poll of 26.4 million respondents,
and correct the disproportional
representation of regions.

Known
Unknown

Per region (or province):

Votes:

Number of votes tallied

Distribution of votes among candidates
Key information!
Precincts:

Avg. votes
per precinct

Number of precincts tallied

Votes not
tallied

Vote
turnout
Precincts
not tallied

Total number of precincts

Estimating the true results of the 2004 elections

Table 4. Estimated leads in the votes not counted, one end of the range
GMA Area
(Lead in 000's)
C.Visayas (1,293)
W.Visayas (757)
CARAGA (144)
Bicol (71)
OAV (47)
CAR (42)
E.Visayas (42)
W.Minda (31)
All GMA Areas

Votes not
counted
-5,992
490,350
233,300
69,318
0
121,735
-50,885
171,417

Add'l
FPJ Area
Lead (Lead in 000's)
-61,362 S.Tagalog (924)
148,215 NCR (290)
52,083 C.Minda (129)
1,670 C.Valley (112)
0 Ilocos (98)
-24,892 C.Luzon (70)
-2,136 ARMM (68)
54,671 N.Minda (39)
S.Minda (16)
1,029,243 168,250 All FPJ Areas
Final Lead, FPJ

Votes not
counted
635,610
1,038,329
569,133
246,182
199,165
793,498
109,193
203,611
211,709
4,006,430

Add'l
Lead
146,304
159,686
306,157
32,953
-10,090
130,356
77,644
21,690
68,331
933,030
83,858

Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up after
Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Table 4. Estimated leads in the votes not counted, other end of the range
GMA Area
(Lead in 000's)
C.Visayas (1,293)
W.Visayas (757)
CARAGA (144)
Bicol (71)
OAV (47)
CAR (42)
E.Visayas (42)
W.Minda (31)
All GMA Areas
Final Lead, GMA

Votes not
counted
-5,992
490,350
233,300
69,318
0
121,735
-50,885
171,417

Add'l
FPJ Area
Votes not
Lead (Lead in 000's) counted
-27,220 S.Tagalog (924)
635,610
148,215 NCR (290)
1,038,329
52,083 C.Minda (129)
569,133
1,670 C.Valley (112)
246,182
0 Ilocos (98)
199,165
-24,892 C.Luzon (70)
793,498
-2,136 ARMM (68)
109,193
54,671 N.Minda (39)
203,611
S.Minda (16)
211,709
1,029,243 202,391 All FPJ Areas
4,006,430
156,110

Add'l
Lead
146,304
159,686
126,958
32,953
-10,090
130,356
51,017
21,690
68,331
727,203

Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as
computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up after
Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.

Conclusion #3

It was a very close contest.

Based on NAMFREL's database, either
candidate could have won: GMA by at
most 156,000 or FPJ by at most 84,000.
These results suggest that to give GMA
a 1.1 million lead, her party had to
cheat by 1 to 1.2 million votes.

Can we get closer to the truth?

Yes!
But we need NAMFREL's
breakdown of precincts counted
per province for its 83 reports,
which its COMELEC accreditation
requires it to make public.

NAMFREL Reports: The Missing Data

No. of precincts NAMFREL
Province
tallied
Report
Abra
Missing!
90-100%
Agusan del Norte
Missing!
50-60%
Agusan del Sur
Missing!
70-80%
Aklan
Missing!
90-100%
...
Missing!
Zambales
Missing!
70-80%
Zambo del Norte
Missing!
50-60%
Zambo del Sur
Missing!
90-100%
Zambo Sibugay
Missing!
90-100%
179,564
National Total

A word about sample sizes

Pollsters rule: a random saple size of 2,500 gives an

estimate (of, say, a candidates share of the votes) with a
3% error margin at a 99.7% confidence level.
Square the reduction desired in error margin to get the
increase needed in sample size. For example:

To reduce the error margin to 1% (i.e., by 3), increase the

sample size 9 times (i.e., to 22,500)

To reduce the error margin to 0.03% (i.e., by 100), increase the

sample size 10,000 times (i.e., to 25 million)

The NAMFREL database is a sample size of 26.4 million

Thank you
Roberto Verzola
Philippine Greens
rverzola@gn.apc.org
0919-608-7073

NAMFREL Tally Completion, By Region

Rank
Votes not
in
lead GMA Area Completion counted

FPJ Area

Votes not
Completion counted

C.Visayas

91% (101)

W.Visayas

95% (83)

490,350

NCR

75% (74)

1,038,329

CARAGA

73% (73)

233,300

C.Minda

51% (52)

569,133

Bicol

91% (95)

69,318

C.Valley

82% (82)

246,182

OAV

100% (100)

Ilocos

83% (88)

199,165

CAR

79% (79)

121,735

C.Luzon

80% (80)

793,498

E.Visayas

93% (104)

-50,885

ARMM

60% (75)

109,193

W.Minda

83% (85)

171,417

N.Minda

88% (87)

203,611

S.Minda

86% (86)

211,709

-5,992

9
Total, GMA Areas

1,029,243

S.Tagalog 88% (88)

Total, FPJ Areas

635,610

4,006,430

Note: The completion figures were lifted as-is from the document NAMFREL
chairman Jose Concepcion Jr. distributed at the July 8 BBC conference in Makati. In
parenthesis are my estimates, based on average votes/precinct computed from earlier
Report No. 73. Numbers under "Votes not counted" are also my estimates.

NAMFREL Terminal Report (#83): Where the votes came from

Votes not %
Votes not %
counted counted GMA
counted counted FPJ
GMA Area (R. #82) (R. #83) Lead
FPJ Area (R. #82) (R. #83) Lead
C.Visayas
125,509 105% 103,997 S.Tagalog 888,262
28% 58,155
W.Visayas
651,322
25% 48,656 NCR
1,160,189
11% 18,741
CARAGA
278,546
16% 10,101 C.Minda
569,133
0%
0
Bicol
118,497
42% 1,185 C.Valley
248,341
1%
289
OAV
0
Ilocos
335,537
41% -6,909
CAR
151,103
19% -6,005 C.Luzon
813,470
2% 3,281
E.Visayas
333,377 115% 16,132 ARMM
169,529
36% -14,649
W.Minda
341,009
50% 54,089 N.Minda
222,677
9% 2,031
S.Minda
217,571
1,892
Total
1,999,363
49% 228,155 Total
4,624,709
13% 62,831