Forecasting

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Forecasting can be
regarded as a one-off activity carried out before the program design stage or as a continuous input to policy process
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Is the procedure for production information about future states of society on the basis of prior information about policy problem.

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Forecasting in policy analysis is therefore not concerned with predicting the future, but with attempting to asses the implications of different assumptions (Hogwood and Gunn). The capacity to forecast policy futures is critical to success of policy analysis and the improvement of policy making (Dunn). Through forecasting, we can obtain a prospective vision, or foresight, thereby enlarging capacities for understanding, control and societal guidance (Dunn).
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Three principal form of forecast

Projection / extrapolation
Prediction Conjecture / Judgmental Techniques
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Projection / Extrapolation

Forecast which is based on extrapolation of current and historical trends into the future.

Projections put for designative claim based on argument from method and parallel case, where assumption about the validity of particular method (time series analysis) or similarities between cases (exmpl: past and present) are used to established the cogency of claim.
The main problem arising with extrapolative technique are the measurement and interpretation of past trends and the possibility that unpredicted factors wills upset predictions based on the continuation of present trends.
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Trends

Un-damped

regular b. Exponential c. S - Curve

damped a. linear
Deny M Tri Aryadi

d. Cyclical

e. Dis-continous

Prediction

A forecast based on explicit theoretical assumptions. These assumption may take the form of theoretical law, theoretical proposition or analogies. The essential of a prediction is that it specifies the generative powers (causes) and consequences (effect) or the parallel processes or relations believed (analogs) to underlie a relationship
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Conjecture / Judgmental Techniques

A forecast based on informed or expert judgments about future states of society. These take may the form of intuitive arguments, where assumption about the insight, creative intellectual power are used to support designative claim about the future These techniques is largely concerned with forecasting possible futures on basis of intuitive rather than objective method
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Aims of Forecasting

First and most important, forecasts provide information about future changes in policies and their consequences Mengendalikan Masa Depan dengan asumsi bahwa masa depan ditentukan oleh Masa Kini bahkan Masa Lalu. Talks about something (values) in the future, Past and present values may determine the future
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Limitation of Forecasting

Forecast accuracy Comparative yield Context (Institutional, Temporal, Historical)

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Type of Futures

Potential Future (alternative future) Plausible Future Normative Future

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Approach of Forecasting
1. What the Object of Forecast is to be ? 2. How to make the forecast ? That is, select one or more bases for the forecast 3. Choose Method & Techniques that are most appropriate for the object and base selected
Deny M Tri Aryadi

Forecast have four object

Consequences of existing policies Consequences of new policies Content of new policies Behavior of policy stakeholders

Deny M Tri Aryadi

The Bases is associated to three forms of forecast

Trend Extrapolation Theoretical Assumption Informed judgments

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Extrapolative Forecasting
Classical Time-Series Analysis Linear Trend Estimation Non Linier Time Series Exponential Weighting Data Transformation Catastrophe Methodology

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Theoretical Forecasting
Theory Mapping Theoretical Modeling Causal Modeling Regression Analysis Point and Interval Estimation Co-relational Analysis

Deny M Tri Aryadi

Judgmental Forecasting Technique

The Delphi Technique Brainstorming Cross-Impact analysis Scenario Writing

Deny M Tri Aryadi