Promoting the Evolution of the Toy District

PPD 531L Economic Development Studio Final Presentation 12/7/2011 - Philip Armstrong -Vasant Sharma -Jae Hoon Park -Nikola Hlady

Welcome to the

Presentation Outline
Introduction Setting Boundary Selection Current Conditions Built Environment Social/Demographi c Crime Development Trends Analysis Vision Layer 1: Quality of Life and Social Development Layer 2: Winston BlockImplement ation/ Proposal Conclusion

SWOT Economic Community Stakeholder Stakeholders Linkage Residential ARO Infrastructure Investment

Opportunity for a new mixed-income model Acknowledgements Questions?

Introduction
Basis for Boundary Selection More finely-grained built environment than in surroundings. Smaller parcel and building sizes with lower heights. Existing Toy District Identity Fewer residential uses inside boundary than directly outside of it Dominated by wholesale and retail businesses Perceived strong edges to the West, North and South.

Figure 1. Toy District Base Map

Setting
History and Context 1870s The coming of the railroads Hotels and social services developed to serve transient population 1930s The Great Depression brings a desperate population. Skid Row develops as a an area of low incomes and/or substance abuse 1984 Creation of Single Room Occupancy (SRO) Housing Corporation 1980-90s The Toy District emerges as a viable immigrant commercial district.

At the same time, Skid Row is dubbed, The worst social disaster in America

1950-70s Commercial and industrial growth, residential contraction

1975- Policy of Containment
4th and San Pedro, looking West

Current Conditions: Built Environment

Figure 2. Assessed Land Use Map
Figure 3. Toy District by Assessed Land Use
Government Home for Aged/Others Hotel/Motel Industrial Office Vacant Store Combination

Parking Lot

Warehousing/ Dist/Storage

Light Manuf.

Store

Source: Zimas

Current Conditions: Built Environment

Figure 4. Toy District Building Size
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 12 less than 5,000 SF 5,000 to 10,000 SF 10,000 to 15,000 SF 32 22 7 15,000 to 20,000 SF 11 20,000 to 30,000 SF 7 30,000 to 50,000 SF 2 50,000 SF +

Median Building Size: 10,125 SF

Source: Zimas

Building Count: 93 Median Year Built: 1917

43 18 1980-2000

Figure 5. Toy District Buildings by Year Built

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

2 Before 1900

10

4 1960-1980

3 2000 to present

1900-1920 1920 to 1940 1940-1960

Source: Zimas

Building Count: 86

Current Conditions: Built Environment Building Heights

The Toy District is characterized by low-scale buildings.
Only four buildings that exceed 5stories in the Toy District.

Figure 6. Building Heights Map

Low building heights allow for unobstructed views of the downtown skyline Taller, larger buildings identified as opportunities for adaptive reuse

Winston St looking West

Current Conditions: Built Environment - Parking

Figure 7. Parking in and Adjacent to the Toy District

9
Figure 8. Parking Map

Street

Street Commercial loading Rooftop

Street lot

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Current Conditions: Built Environment - Parking

Observations Daytime

Daily roof parking rates in the Toy District

$3-5 on weekdays $5-7 on weekends Street parking $1/hr, 1-2 hr parking Parking is restricted from 7pm to 7am.

Competition for street spaces

Rooftop spaces are well used, but capacity remains Lt Paulson: 75-80% of street spaces occupied by deliveries and employees. Nighttime Street parking prohibited, roof lots closed

Conclusion: High demand for parking, but significant parking assets exist. The Toy District is not overparked

Current Conditions: Built Environment Infrastructure

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Current Conditions: Built Environment - Infrastructure

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Current Conditions: Built Environment - Rents

Prevailing warehouse rents

$1.00 - $1.30 per SF

Prevailing retail stall rents $4.00 $10.00 per SF Medallion: large commercial $2 2.50 per SF

Prevailing market-rate residential rents

~ $2 2.20 per SF

Current Conditions: Built EnvironmentDowntown LA

Figure 9. Downtown LA Warehouse Availability 1989-2011
30.00

14

Percentage

25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00

Year

Figure 10. Downtown LA Warehouse Stock 1989-2011

40,000 38,000

Square Feet

36,000
34,000 32,000 30,000

Source: CBRE

Year

Current Conditions: Built Environment Stakeholder Input

Clustering of the three large missions concentrates 1500 homeless people in a small area every morning and night. Concentration of medical marijuana dispensaries and liquor licenses in a recovery zone causes problems including violent robberies. Poor infrastructure, homeless concentration, and negative perceptions of the area
affects employee hiring and retention rates and attractiveness of the area to new businesses.

Infrastructure problems include

heavy traffic flow, lack of parking, broken an uneven sidewalks, narrow sidewalks, poor road and sidewalk maintenance, dilapidated buildings, insufficient commercial loading space, and lack of community amenities such as parks. Insufficient number of garbage cans and public restrooms. Proliferation of inoperative streetlights; theft of copper wire. Alleys used for drug dealing. Grates are need on street drains to control the rats that eat the food remnants strewn in the street.

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Current Conditions: Demographic

Figure 11. Population 2000-2010
2000
2 minutes 3 minutes 5 minutes LA city LA county California US 17,967 32,680 172,834 3,694,820 9,519,338 33,871,64 8 281,421,9 06

2010
19,965 42,516 193,808 3,792,621 9,818,605 37,253,95 6 308,745,5 38

% change 11.1% 30.1% 12.1% 2.6% 3.1% 10.0% 9.7%

Dramatically higher population growth with 5-min driving radius of the Toy District than for LA and LA County. Inference: 30.1% increase for the 3-min radius reflects the success of the Adaptive Reuse Ordinance in creating more housing in Downtown LA. Downtown population forecasts predict increased growth through 2015.

Source: Tactician, US Census Bureau

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Current Conditions: Demographic

Figure 12. Population by age
2 min 2000 2010 43.7 45.5 5 min 2000 2010 30.1 33.4 LA county 2000 2010 32 34.8

median

Higher median age in the 2-min driving radius.

Figure 13. Share of population by age 5-24

2 min 2000 2010 4.1 5.9 8.2 9.5 5 min 2000 2010 14.2 12.7 17.1 16.7 LA county 2000 2010 16.0 13.4 14.6 15.4

5 to 14 15 to 24

At the same time, the share of youth aged 5-24 increased.

Source:

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Current Conditions: Demographic

Figure 14. Population by race
2 min 2000 2010 White Black Native American Asian Hawaiian/Pacif ic Islander Two or more Hispanic Source: Not Hispanic 3 min 2000 2010 5 min 2000 2010 LA city 2000 2010 49.8% 9.6% 0.7% 11.3% 0.1% 4.6% 48.5% 51.5% LA county 2000 2010 48.7 % 9.8% 0.8% 11.9 % 0.3% 4.9% 44.6 % 55.4 50.3 % 8.7% 0.7% 13.7 % 0.3% 4.5% 47.7 % 52.3

29.8% 30.2% 27.2% 27.2% 29.1% 28.0% 46.9% 30.8% 24.8% 24.3% 19.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 8.4% 1.4% 7.8% 11.2% 0.7% 0.8%

20.6% 23.4% 21.5% 21.3% 14.1% 15.0% 10.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.3% 5.2% 0.2% 3.7% 0.2% 4.5% 0.1% 5.1% 0.2% 5.4% 0.2% 5.2%

26.8% 31.8% 35.6% 43.2% 69.8% 71.2% 46.5% 73.2% 68.2% 64.4% 56.8% 30.2% 28.8% 53.5%

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Current Conditions: Demographic

Significantly higher share of the population (%) around the Toy District earns less than $10,000 compared to LA County.
2 min 5 min LA county

Figure 15. Household Income 2010

45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

Source: Tactician

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Current Conditions: Demographic Labor Force

Figure 16. Labor Force Characteristics 2010
2 min Unemployed
Source: Tactician

3 min 23.7%

5 min 16.5%

US 9.0%

30.8%

Nearly three times greater unemployment in the Toy District area than nationwide. for residents of the

Current Conditions: Demographic Stakeholder Input

Stigma and negative perceptions of Skid Row as a sketchy area affect employee hiring and retention and attractiveness of community to businesses.

Homeless concentration and churning affects

public safety, sanitation, and public nuisance including aggressive panhandling, loitering open drug use and dealing in front of businesses.

Current Conditions: Homelessness

Figure 17. Single Homeless Adults

The number of family beds went up by 960 from 2009 to 2011. For single adults, # of beds went down by 326 over the same period.

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18%

82%

Figure 18. Percent Sheltered by Type LA City single 17,944 5,284 13,294 4,020 100% adults Skid Row 80% single adults 60%
40% 20%
Sheltered

Unsheltered

Source: LAHSA

0%

LA Single Adults

Skid Row Single Adults

Source: LAHSA

LA Single Adults (NI Skid Row)

LA Homeless families

Current Conditions: Crime

Figure 20. Part I Crimes by RD

23

Figure 19. Toy District RD Map

400 350 300

Part I Crimes

250 200 150 100 RD 156 RD 155 RD 147 RD 146

50
0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: LAPD

Source: LAPD

YTD 2011 (thru 9/11)

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Current Conditions: Crime

Figure 21. Percent Change in Part I Crime 2010-2011 YTD
60%

40%

Safer City Initiative managed to decrease crime levels from 20062010, now the threat of increased crime has emerged, tied to the increase in parolees in Skid Row.

20%

0%

Robbery

-20%

-40%

Agg Assaults

Other Theft

Homicide

Burglary

Rape

GTA

BTMV

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Current Conditions: Existing Policy/Initiatives/Legislation

Policy of Containment (1975) Policy to prevent SRO conversion to other uses. Safer City Initiative (2006) SB 2 (2008) Los Angeles County Low Impact Development Ordinance (2008) Community Market Conversion Initiative (2011) Los Angeles Green Building Retrofit Ordinance (2011) Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator (2011)

Fashion Your District planning effort(2010-2011)

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Current Conditions: Development Trends

The number of Downtown LA residential units increased by 11% from 2008 to 2011 for a total of 28,861. The number of affordable units grew by 5.2% over the same period, while the number of market-rate units grew by 14.8%. Figure 22. Downtown LA Residential Units 2011

38% 62%

Market Rate Affordable

Source: Downtown Center Business Improvement District

Current Conditions: Development Trends

Existing diversity in the housing stock when the area around the Toy District is taken into account Implication Diverse development is poised to take place in the Toy District.

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Source: CRA/LA

Current Conditions: Development Trends - Existing

Several significant residential developments exist, or are under construction adjacent to the Toy District.

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The Medallion (4th and Los Angeles) 2010 192 Units $2.20/sf Parking Structure

Source: losangelescondos.net

Little Tokyo Lofts (Winson and San Pedro) 2003 161 Units $175,000 $1.2m Underground Parking Adaptive Reuse Project

Casa Heiwa (3rd and Wall) 1996 100 Units Affordable Housing 1996 Supportive Services Enterprise Communities Partners retrofit Underground Parking

Current Conditions: Development Trends Under Construction

Jeffries Banknote Company Building (Los
Angeles and Winston)

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Expected 2012 43 Units ~ $2/sf

Winston)

$3.5-5m conversion cost Adaptive Reuse Project

SRHT New Genesis Apartments (Los Angeles and $22.3m cost 106 Units Permanent Supportive Housing LEED Platinum SRO Housing Corp Gateways Apartments
(Los Angeles and Winston)

LEED Platinum Funding partnership with CRA/LA Property Acquired $5.85m predevelopment financing

Proposed 120 Efficiency Units Community and recreation space

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Current Conditions: Development

Other existing developments
Downtown Womens Center
Old Bank District 443 San Pedro Mixed Use Artist Lofts Victor Clothing Lofts Baltimore, Leland and King Edwards Hotels

Other under construction developments

SRO Housing Corp
Rosslyn Hotel Panama Apartments Star Apartments

Huntington Hotel rehabilitation

Medallion Phase 2

Other SRO Hotels

SWOT Analysis
Strengths Strong wholesale and retail activity Diversity of interconnective pathways Proximity to downtown/other districts High daytime pedestrian activity Ethnic flavor, bazaar atmosphere Active community stakeholders Decreasing crime Existing off-street/rooftop parking

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Opportunities Capitalize on physical characteristics (low buildings, narrow streets, alley network) Development momentum in adjacent districts Growing surrounding residential/consumer base Labor supply from local residents Stable warehouse availability in DTLA

Threats Increasing homelessness due to external factors Stigma of Skid Row Public health threats

Weaknesses Proximity to Skid Row and proliferation of social services Aging infrastructure and building stock Lack of diversity in housing stock No uses that activate at night Heavy truck traffic inhibits pedestrian flow Not represented by a BID Unclear public vision of future

4th PL Alley on a Sunday

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SWOT Analysis: Photo TourStrengths and Opportunities

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SWOT Analysis: Photo TourWeaknesses and Threats

Economic Analysis: Toy Industry Trends

Figure 23. Industry Annual Growth Annual Growth 06-11
Toy & Craft Wholesaling Toy, Game & Doll Manufacturing Hobby & Toy Stores
Source: IBIS World

Annual Growth 11-16 (projected)

Share of Cal. (by establish)

-1.0% -5.0% -1.0%

2.1% 0.6% 0.6%

29.6% 16.4% 10.9%

Economic Analysis: Toy Industry Trends

Figure 24. Key Industry Factors

Factor
Downstream Demand (drived by household income, unemployment rate, etc.) Rising Import Penetration
Wholesale Bypass (internalize Process) Discount Retailers (Walmart, Target, etc.)
Source: IBIS World

Impact
Anticipated to be positive

Positive
Negative Negative

Projection: Toy Industry will experience better results in the five years to 2016 Industrys profit before tax is expected to grow only slightly (4.1% 4.2% of revenue)

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Economic Analysis
Figure 25. Industry Portion by Establishment

Source: ESRI, US Census Bureau

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Economic Analysis
Figure 26. Toy District Industry Distribution by Establishment 2010
2% 3% 0% 4% 4% 10%

Figure 27. Toy District Industry Distribution By Annual Sales 2010

1% 2% 1% 7% Construction 3% Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade

38%

49%

Information Professional, scientific, and technical services Accommodation and food services

76%

Source: ESRI, US Census Bureau

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Economic Analysis - Trends

Figure 28. Industry Trends by Establishment: Zip Code 90013 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Retail trade Wholesale trade

Professional, scientific, and technical services Accommodation and food services

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Economic Analysis: Location Quotient

Location Quotient Analysis for zip code 90013 compared to LA County

Figure 29. Location Quotient Comparison: Wholesale

8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 30. Location Quotient Comparison: Retail

1.40 1.20 1.00

zip 90013 Wholesale LA county Wholesale

0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

zip 90013 Retail LA county Retail

Figure 31. Location Quotient Comparison: Manufacturing

1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

zip 90013 Manufacture LA county Manufacture

Community stakeholder analysis

Loss of the Business Improvement District was a huge loss for the Safer Cities Initiative because it is a force multiplier. Strong leadership from elected and appointed representative to inspire community-wide buy-in to a common vision to ensure continuity in implementing the Vision and Workplan despite election cycles and staffing changes.

City and County to work together in disbursing funds for social services and affordable housing.

Infrastructure Investment Analysis: Green Infrastructure- Background

Regional water quality & supply issues

Urban Heat Island Effects (UHI)

Predominantly impervious surfaces in the Toy District 2 Recommended Strategies: Low Impact Development (LID); Green Roofs

Source: Green Infrastructure for Los Angeles

Source: Green Roofs: Cooling Los Angeles

Infrastructure Investment Analysis: Low Impact Development (LID)

Key Principles Multiple Benefits Comparative Studies Cost Savings, Funding Incentives

Source: Green Infrastructure for Los Angeles

Infrastructure Investment Analysis: LID Construction, Operations, Maintenance Funding

Summary of LID Funding Strategies for Construction and Operations & Maintenance
Strategy Const. O&M

Bonds

Municipal bonds

LID in-lieu fees

9 9 9 9 9

9 9 9 9 9 9

Fees & Assessments

Increased stormwater abatement charge Individualized parcel drainage fees One Percent for Green Streets fund Parking increment financing Maintenance assessments Quimby fees for parks Dept. of Water & Power funding

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Grants Partnerships

Proposition 84 grants Proposition O grants Private foundation grants Adopt-A-Garden program Corporate sponsorship

Source: Green Infrastructure for Los Angeles

Emerging Markets

Sales of L.A. City carbon offsets

Infrastructure Investment Analysis: Low Impact Development (LID) Cost Savings

Case Studies: 19-25% Average Cost Savings (LID vs. Conventional)
Figure #. Winston Street LID Demonstration Project
Linear Feet Conventional Infrastructure Investment Cost LID Infrastructure Cost min. LID Infrastructure Cost max. Savings max. Savings min. 630 $291,666 $219,859 $237,653 $71,807 $54,013

Annual LID Maintenance Costs

$108,000

Annual Conventional Stormwater Treatment Costs Annual LID Stormwater Treatment Costs (90% retention)

$190,400 $19,040

Estimated LID Total Cost Savings over 5 years

$466,013 - 483,807 * All figures represent estimates based off of best available data

Infrastructure Investment Analysis: Green Roofs

Again:
Multiple Benefits Energy and Cost Savings

Funding Incentives
Comparative Costs with Conventional

Source:

Infrastructure Investment Analysis: Green Roof Cost Estimate

Assumed Green Reroof Costs in Los Angeles Annualized Initial Cost: $1.35 per SF (35-40 year anticipated life); + Maintenance Cost: $1 per SF; + Irrigation Cost: $0.02 per SF = -----------------------------------------------------------Total Annual Cost: $2.37 per SF

Estimated Conventional Reroof Costs (LA) between $1.55 and $4.60 per SF
SOURCE: Green Roofs: Cooling Los Angeles

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Residential Adaptive Reuse Pro Forma Analysis: 413 Wall St

Building Characteristics 38,460 SF 4 Stories Merchant-stall style commercial on ground floor Built 1912 Assessed value: $193,400 Rents 1st Floor Commercial: $48 SF/YR Floors 2-4, Wholesale/Residential: $12 SF/YR

Assumption No debt service in baseline scenario

Figure 32. 413 Wall St Cash Flow
Year 1 Year 2 $585,926.20 $603,560.96

Year 3
Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8

$622,179.10
$641,366.01 $661,138.95 $681,515.73 $702,514.66 $724,154.62

Year 9
Year 10

$746,455.08
$769,436.06

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Residential Adaptive Reuse Pro Forma Analysis: 413 Wall St

Adaptive Reuse Ordinance Waives density restrictions, lot area requirements. No new parking Expedited Planning review
Figure 33. 413 Wall St Cash Flow after Adaptive Reuse
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 $582,522.13 $628,072.05 $685,655.49 $705,671.77 $747,019.77 $779,147.66 $812,244.63 $846,339.87 $881,463.44

Assumptions Rehab Hard Costs: $44.18 per SF Rehab Soft Costs: 15.22 per SF Private loan to cover 100% of rehab costs

Year 10

$917,646.28

Rents needed for equivalent cash flow 1st Floor Commercial: $60 per SF/Year Residential: $22 per SF/Year Further rehab cost savings with Green Building Retrofit Ordinance, CRA Funds

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Residential Adaptive Reuse Parking Analysis: 413 Wall St

Market demand for parking in ARO Projects Approx .75 spaces per unit. Implication: Some parking should be provided for 413 Wall St project. Proposal: Parking agreement with 40-car capacity rooftop lot across from 413 Wall St Project Parking Analysis

18 spots at $115/mo ensure same cash flow for parking operator

Figure 34. 413 Wall St Cash Flow after Adaptive Reuse

parking spaces at

0.75

18

Res. Parking Revenue/mo ($) Comm. Parking revenue/mo ($)

$115

2070

$24,840

22

40150

$30,113

Total Revenue

$54,953

Commercial only

73000

$54,750

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Vision
We envision a functional, diverse, integrated, mixed-use community based around a mixed-income residential model. We recognize that economic development will not be successful in this area without an enhanced social development approach.

We propose to capitalize on the Toy Districts bustling market character by decentralizing housing and social services for the homeless and improving the built environment with green strategies in order to enhance the districts unique pedestrian character and foster greencollar jobs where they are needed most. We propose to retain most of the existing uses, focusing instead on several catalytic projects that will add value to the district, serve the existing community, and attract new users by strengthening linkages to surrounding districts.
In pursuing these strategies, it is our goal to encourage the social, economic and physical evolution of the area.

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Vision: Layer 1
Layer 1 Quality of Life and Environment: Foundation of an economic development strategy Fix damaged streets and sidewalks using green strategies. Tie improvements to green workforce development (Installation, O+M) Introduce new public restrooms, garbage cans, signage and public art Green the alleys Perform a study to investigate the benefits of delivering addiction-recovery services in or out of Skid Row. Implement a process of decentralization of homelessness services

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Vision: 4th PL Green Alley Rendering

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Vision: A green Winston St

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Vision: Layer 2
Layer 2: Winston Block Strategic opportunities and catalytic projects
Firehouse No. 23 Rehabilitate the disused Firehouse on 5th Street. Wall Street Wholesale Lofts Residential Adaptive Reuse Rehabilitate burnt-out eateries on Winston Street Develop a program to close Winston Street to vehicular traffic every other Sunday. Install public art interventions at Los Angeles St Intersections (5th, Winston, 4th) Create a Skid Row Community Art Park at 226 E 4th St Parking Lot

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Vision: Layer 2 Winston Block

Figure 35. Winston Block Aerial View

Opportunity Sites 1. Firehouse No. 23 2. Wall Street Wholesale Lofts 3. Public Art/Signage Intervention

4. Winston St Eatery Rehabilitation 5. Skid Row Art Park

Vision: Layer 2
Firehouse No. 23 Wall Street Wholesale Lofts

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5th Street Facade

Wall Street Facade

Winston Street Facade

4th PL Facade

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Vision: Skid Row Art Park

Conclusion
Through making key catalytic project investments fixing the Toy Districts deteriorated existing infrastructure and highlighting its unique, positive assets, we plan to:
Create local, new green collar jobs, stimulating workforce development, through green infrastructure solutions; Further the goals of existing Policies and Plans focusing on decentralizing homelessness in Skid Row; Create and sustain lasting economic, social, and physical linkages with adjacent downtown districts; Create a more livable, diverse district capable of sustaining its future development aims through harnessing its existing assets, opportunities, and social capacity.

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Thank You

Questions?