Course Project Presentation Course Project Presentation

on on
Factors of Safety and Reliability in Factors of Safety and Reliability in
Geotechnical Engineering Geotechnical Engineering
Presented by Presented by
Kamal Kant Jain Kamal Kant Jain
Introduction Introduction
Basic Tools of Reliability Analysis Basic Tools of Reliability Analysis
Geotechnical Applications of Probabilistic Geotechnical Applications of Probabilistic
Methods and Reliability Analysis Methods and Reliability Analysis
Example: Example: Retaining Wall Stability Retaining Wall Stability
Conclusions Conclusions
Outline of presentation Outline of presentation
Introduction Introduction
Uncertainty: State of being unsure of something Uncertainty: State of being unsure of something
May be present in form of uncertainty in
Physical properties
Loads
Geometry
And these are taken care either by
Ignoring
Being conservative
Using the observational method
Quantifying uncertainty
Factors of safety in Geotechnical Engineering Factors of safety in Geotechnical Engineering
Based on experience Based on experience
Dont depend on degree of uncertainty involved Dont depend on degree of uncertainty involved
Present status of use of Reliability theory in Present status of use of Reliability theory in
Geotechnical Engineering Geotechnical Engineering
Involves terms and concepts that are not much familiar to Involves terms and concepts that are not much familiar to
most of the geotechnical engineers most of the geotechnical engineers
Perception that it would require more data time, and effort Perception that it would require more data time, and effort
Is not used extensively Is not used extensively
Basic Tools of Reliability Analysis
- Direct Reliability Analysis
- Normal and Lognormal Distributions
- First Order Second Moment Methods
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Event Trees
1) Normal Variables
M R Q =
M R Q
=

2 2 2
2
M R Q R Q
RQ
= +
p
o o o o o
2) Lognormal Variables
Reliability Index
M
M

=
o
Probability of failure
f P
= 1)
= CDF of Standard Normal Variate
1
/
ln ln ln
F R Q
F R Q
=
=
2
ln
ln
1
ln
2
F F
F
=
o
2
2
ln
ln(1 )
F
F
V = +
o
Direct Reliability Analysis
Distributions other than normal or lognormal
arise often in practice like
Gamma distribution
Extreme Type distributions
Poisson
First Order Second Moment Methods
)
1 2 3,
1 2 3
1 2 3
* * * * *
1 2 3 1 2 3
*
( , , ... )
, , ... ,
( , , ... ) ( , , ... )
( , , .... )
n
n
n
n n i i
i
M x x x x
M
i
i
x
i
i
if M f x x x x
x x x x are uncorrelated random variables then using
taylor expansion
f
f x x x x f x x x x x x
x
f
f
x
x

o

=
+

' '
+

' '

2
i
x
i
o

Monte Carlo Simulation

1 2 3
1 2 3
( , , ... )
, , ...


n
n
i
if M f x x x x
x x x x are uncorrelated random variables with
known distribution type, then we generate a large
number of random data points for each of x using
tables and spreadsheets
=
and determine parameters of
M using data obtained
Event Trees
Describe logical interactions among a complex set of events,
conditions, physical parameters and states
Start with an initiating event and consider no logical difference
between an event and a condition
Proceed with set of exhaustive and exclusive events that could
follow and each event is associated with conditional probability
Proceed along each path to evaluate the next outcomes, and
so on and so forth
At the end of the any stage of tree, the probability of each
outcome is simply the product of the conditional probabilities of
preceding events and conditions
Initialize Event
Outcome B
Outcome A
Outcome A2
Outcome A1
Outcome B2
Outcome B1
And so on
And so on
Fig 1 : Event Tree
Conditional probability:
P (E2 | E 1) = {P (E2 E 1)} / P (E1)

Geotechnical Applications of
Probabilistic Methods
Studies of Safety of Dams, Dikes, and
Embankments
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Limit State Design or Load and Resistance
Factor
Nuclear Waste Repositories
Mining
Analysis of Retaining Wall Stability
FIG. 1 : Cantilever Retaining Wall with Silty Sand Backfill
(Source: J. Michael Duncan. (2000), Factors of Safety and
Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering)
Example: Retaining Wall Stability Example: Retaining Wall Stability
Cantilever
retaining wall
Compacted silty
sand backfill
Concrete footing
built on a layer
of silty sand
Backfill drained
to prevent build
up of water
pressure behind
the wall
Factor of Safety (FoS) against Sliding Factor of Safety (FoS) against Sliding
tan
ss
W
E
F
H
=
W = Weight of wall and backfill over the heel of the wall (lb/ft or kN/m)
tanH = Tangent of friction angle between base of wall and sand
E = Earth pressure force on vertical plane through heel of wall (lb/ft or kN/m)
HCV = Highest conceivable value of the parameter
LCV = Lowest conceivable value of the parameter
Steps involved in estimation of FoS Steps involved in estimation of FoS
Estimate the standard deviations of the
quantities involved In equation
1) Computation from data :
)
)
2
i
=
1
x x
N
o

2) Computation from published values :

V = Coefficient of variation
( ) *( ) V x o =
3) Computation from three sigma rule :
( - )

6
HCV LCV
o =
Estimation of the standard deviation and the Estimation of the standard deviation and the
coefficient of variation of the factor of safety coefficient of variation of the factor of safety
2 2 2 2
3 1 2 4
2 2 2 2
F
F
F
MLV
F F F F
F
V
o
o
A A A A
+ + + +
= + + +

' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
=
; F
F F
i
i
i
+
A =
4) Graphical three sigma rule may also be used for
estimation of standard deviation
/
i
F
+
=
Where Factor of safety calculated with the value of the
i
th
parameter increased / decreased by one
standard deviation from its best estimate value
F
MLV
= Most likely value of factor of safety, computed using
best estimate values for all of the parameters.
Finding probability of failure and the reliability
of the factor of safety
Assuming that factor of safety follows a lognormal distribution :
2
ln
2
ln
1
ln(1 )
MLV
F
V
V

+

+
' '
=
+
ln

= lognormal reliability index

V = coefficient of variation of
factor of safety
F
MLV
= most likely value of
factor of safety
Conclusions Conclusions
Thank you