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A decision is a judgement. It is a choice between judgement. alternatives. It is rarely a choice between right and wrong. It is at best a choice between almost right and probably wrong.

DECISION PROCESS Recognize

Problem GATHER FACTS

GENERATE

1 2 3
REFER DELEGATE DECISION
MAKE

MATCH ASSESS RESULT MONITOR

3

IMPLEMENT

A manager by profession is a decision maker; Uncertainty is his opponent, overcoming it is his mission.

Decisions under uncertainty are high-stakes gambling where factors such as human life, health, economic prosperity, or the environment are concerned. ..Norman Shultz

Certainty: This is a situation wherein the outcome that will occur is known. Risk: This is a situation wherein all possible outcomes and the probability of occurrence are known , even as one does not know which outcome shall surely occur. Uncertainty: This is a situation wherein the possible outcomes or probability of the outcomes is unknown, or both the possible outcomes and probability of outcomes are unknown.

Menurut Emmaett J. Vaughan dan Curtis M. Elliott ` Kans kerugian the change of loss ` Kemungkinan kerugian the possibility of loss ` Ketidakpastian uncertainty ` Penyimpangan kenyataan dari hasil yang diharapkan the dispersion of actual from expected result ` Probabilitas bahwa suatu hasil berbeda dari yang diharapkan the probability of any outcome different from the one expected

Klasifikasikan ke dalam : ` Risiko operasional risiko karena faktor-faktor non keuangan : manusia, teknologi dan alam ` Risiko Finansial risiko karena faktor-faktor keuangan seperti harga, tinfkat bunga, mata uang asing ` Risiko strategik risiko karena kurang optimalnya strategi perusahaan yang dibuat

Risiko bagi organisasi perusahaan pada umumnya bersumber dari adanya unsur ketidakpastian (uncertainties) yang menyebabkan tertekannya profitability atau bahkan dapat menimbulkan kerugian

Risiko Murni Suatu kejadian berakibat hanya merugikan saja dan tidak memungkinkan adanya keuntungan
Misal :Risiko kebakaran

Risiko Spekulatif risiko yang tidak saja memungkinkan tejadinya kerugian tetapi juga memungkinkan terjadinya keuntungan
Misal : Investasi

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Strategi reaktif memonitor proyek terhadap kemungkinan resiko. Sumber-sumber daya dikesampingkan, padahal seharusnya sumbersumber daya menjadi masalah yang sebenarnya / penting. Strategi proaktif dimulai sebelum kerja teknis diawali. Resiko potensial diidentifikasi, probabilitas & pengaruh proyek diperkirakan, dan diprioritaskan menurut kepentingan, kemudian membangun suatu rencana untuk manajemen resiko. Sasaran utama adalah menghindari resiko.
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Risiko Pasar Risiko Strategi Risiko Pemasaran Risiko Manajemen Risiko Biaya

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Risiko yg sudah diketahui ` adalah risiko yg dpt diungkap setelah dilakukan evaluasi secara hati-hati terhadap rencana proyek, bisnis, & lingkungan teknik dimana proyek sedang dikembangkan, dan sumber informasi reliable lainnya, seperti : tgl penyampaian yg tdk realitas kurangnya persyaratan yg terdokumentasi kurangnya ruag lingkup proyek /pekerjaan lingkungan pengembangan yg buruk

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Risiko yg dapat diramalkan

diekstrapolasi dari pengalaman proyek sebelumnya. ` Misalnya : pergantian staf komunikasi yg buruk dgn para pelanggan mengurangi usaha staff bila permintaan pemeliharaan sedang berlangsung dilayani
`
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i.

ii.

iii.

Risk-Averse: This involves preference for a certain outcome instead of a gamble with expected value of wealth. When a Risk-Averse decision-maker acts, a risky opportunity would be exchanged for one that has a definite outcome. This is characterized by diminishing marginal utility of wealth. Risk Neutral: This is indifferent between the certain outcome and gamble. The Risk Neutral attitude to decisionmaking focuses on expected value. Risk-Seeking: This involves preference for the gamble instead of the certain outcome. Risk-Seeking decisionmaker would want to be paid an amount higher than the expected value, so as to exchange the risky decision for the certain one. This is characterized by increasing marginal utility of wealth.

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Uncertainty

Risk and Uncertainty

Risk

Probabilities [and Outcomes] Unknown

Some Knowledge Of Probabilities [and Outcomes]

Probabilities [and Outcomes] Known

Source: Casavant, Kenneth, Infanger and Bridges

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Demand Structure

Competitors

Externalities

Uncertaint y

Internal Forces

Supply Structure

Time

Source: Elijah Ezendu, Decision-Making

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` ` ` `

Customer Preferences Market Size Price Responsiveness Segmentation

Externalities
Industry Structure Government Regulation Influence of Non Governmental Organisations Social Norms
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` ` `

New Products New Processes New Technology

Competitors
Nature of Competitors Strategies of Competitors Behaviours of Competitors
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` Alignment

of Ownership ` Behaviour of Management ` Behaviour of Employees

Time
The Rapidity of a Phenomenon

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Whether it is uncertainty, risk, or somewhere inbetween there is one strategy that always improves the managers ability to make sound management decisions and that is information. The more information a manager has on the potential uncertainties and risks that they face, then the more they can establish probabilities of likely outcomes, evaluate the impact on the business, and evaluate risk management strategies accordingly.
- Kevin Bernhardt

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Residual Uncertainty

Unknowns That Are Knowable

Clear Trends

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These are factors that are plain and can be investigated without problems, and their details are knowable, while the activities can be predictable on probing deeper therein. For example assumptions about upward trend in the society, market and economic bloc.

This second level of uncertainty is characterized by factors which when subjected to proper analysis , their probability of outcome can be known. For example demand trends and consumer preferences.

This is the topmost level of uncertainty and its distinctive features are complexity and futility in every attempt of people to conduct analysis for predicting occurrence. Therefore, residual uncertainty normally cause fear, stress and discomfort to decision makers. Nevertheless, movement from one position of time to another, may be able to downgrade it to a lower level of uncertainty. For example the effect of consumer choice on the future of financial services

Most decisions to do something positive. Can only be taken as a result of animal spirits- of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities. - John Maynard Keynes

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Daftar bacaan ` Managing Decision Under Uncertainties, Dr. Elijah Ezendu FIMC, FCIM, FIIAN, FBDI, FAAFM, FAAPM, FCCM, MIMIS, MITD, ACIArb, ACIPM, PhD, DocM, MBA, CWM, CBDA, CMA, MPM, PME, CSOL, CCIP, CMC ` Bahan kuliah Ekonomi Manajerial, R. Gunawan Sudarmanto

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