Valuation Models

Aswath Damodaran

Aswath Damodaran

Misconceptions about Valuation

Myth 1: A valuation is an objective search for true value

Truth 1.1: All valuations are biased. The only questions are how much and in which direction. Truth 1.2: The direction and magnitude of the bias in your valuation is directly proportional to who pays you and how much you are paid.

Myth 2.: A good valuation provides a precise estimate of value

Truth 2.1: There are no precise valuations Truth 2.2: The payoff to valuation is greatest when valuation is least precise.

Myth 3: . The more quantitative a model, the better the valuation

Truth 3.1: Ones understanding of a valuation model is inversely proportional to the number of inputs required for the model. Truth 3.2: Simpler valuation models do much better than complex ones.

Aswath Damodaran

Approaches to Valuation
Valuation Models

Asset Based Valuation

Discounted Cashflow Models

Relative Valuation

Contingent Claim Models

Liquidation Value Stable Replacement Cost Two-stage Three-stage or n-stage Current

Equity Firm

Sector

Option to delay

Option to expand

Option to liquidate

Market Normalized

Young firms

Equity in troubled firm

Earnings Book Revenues Value

Sector specific

Undeveloped land

Equity Valuation Models Dividends

Firm Valuation Models Patent Undeveloped Reserves

Free Cashflow to Firm

Cost of capital approach

APV approach

Excess Return Models

Aswath Damodaran

Basis for all valuation approaches

The use of valuation models in investment decisions (i.e., in decisions on which assets are under valued and which are over valued) are based upon
a perception that markets are inefficient and make mistakes in assessing value an assumption about how and when these inefficiencies will get corrected

In an efficient market, the market price is the best estimate of value. The purpose of any valuation model is then the justification of this value.

Aswath Damodaran

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

 

What is it: In discounted cash flow valuation, the value of an asset is the present value of the expected cash flows on the asset. Philosophical Basis: Every asset has an intrinsic value that can be estimated, based upon its characteristics in terms of cash flows, growth and risk. Information Needed: To use discounted cash flow valuation, you need
to estimate the life of the asset to estimate the cash flows during the life of the asset to estimate the discount rate to apply to these cash flows to get present value

Market Inefficiency: Markets are assumed to make mistakes in pricing assets across time, and are assumed to correct themselves over time, as new information comes out about assets.
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Aswath Damodaran

Discounted Cashflow Valuation: Basis for Approach

t = n CF t Value = t t =1 (1+ r)

where CFt is the cash flow in period t, r is the discount rate appropriate given the riskiness of the cash flow and t is the life of the asset. Proposition 1: For an asset to have value, the expected cash flows have to be positive some time over the life of the asset. Proposition 2: Assets that generate cash flows early in their life will be worth more than assets that generate cash flows later; the latter may however have greater growth and higher cash flows to compensate.

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Equity Valuation versus Firm Valuation

 

Value just the equity stake in the business Value the entire business, which includes, besides equity, the other claimholders in the firm

Aswath Damodaran

I.Equity Valuation
The value of equity is obtained by discounting expected cashflows to equity, i.e., the residual cashflows after meeting all expenses, tax obligations and interest and principal payments, at the cost of equity, i.e., the rate of return required by equity investors in the firm.

CF to Equity t Value of Equity = (1+ k e )t t=1

where, CF to Equityt = Expected Cashflow to Equity in period t ke = Cost of Equity


t=n

Forms: The dividend discount model is a specialized case of equity valuation, and the value of a stock is the present value of expected future dividends. In the more general version, you can consider the cashflows left over after debt payments and reinvestment needs as the free cashflow to equity.

Aswath Damodaran

II. Firm Valuation

Cost of capital approach: The value of the firm is obtained by discounting expected cashflows to the firm, i.e., the residual cashflows after meeting all operating expenses and taxes, but prior to debt payments, at the weighted average cost of capital, which is the cost of the different components of financing used by the firm, weighted by their market value proportions.
t= n

Value of Firm =


(1+ WACC)
t =1

CF to Firm t
t

APV approach: The value of the firm can also be written as the sum of the value of the unlevered firm and the effects (good and bad) of debt.
Firm Value = Unlevered Firm Value + PV of tax benefits of debt - Expected Bankruptcy Cost

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Generic DCF Valuation Model

DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW VALUATION

Cash flows Firm: Pre-debt cash flow Equity: After debt cash flows

Expected Growth Firm: Growth in Operating Earnings Equity: Growth in Net Income/EPS

Firm is in stable growth: Grows at constant rate forever

Terminal Value Value Firm: Value of Firm Equity: Value of Equity Length of Period of High Growth CF 1 CF 2 CF 3 CF 4 CF 5 ......... CF n Forever

Discount Rate Firm:Cost of Capital Equity: Cost of Equity

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VALUING ABN AMRO

Dividends EPS = 1.54 Eur * Payout Ratio 58.44% DPS = 0.90 Eur Retention Ratio = 41.56% ROE = 16% Expected Growth 41.56% * 16% = 6.65%

g =4%: ROE = 8.95%(=Cost of equity) Beta = 1.00 Payout = (1- 4/8.95) = .553

Terminal Value= EPS *Payout/(r-g) 6 = (2.21*.553)/(.0895-.04) = 24.69 Value of Equity per share = 20.48 Eur EPS DPS 1.64 Eur 0.96 Eur 1.75 Eur 1.02 Eur 1.87 Eur 1.09 Eur 1.99 Eur 1.16 Eur 2.12 Eur 1.24 Eur ......... Forever Discount at Cost of Equity

Cost of Equity 4.95% + 0.95 (4%) = 8.75%

Riskfree Rate: Long term bond rate in Euros 4.95%

Beta 0.95

Risk Premium 4%

Average beta for European banks = 0.95

Mature Market 4%

Country Risk 0%

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Aswath Damodaran

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Avg Reinvestment rate = 25.08% Current Cashflow to Firm EBIT(1-t) : $ 404 - Nt CpX 23 - Chg WC 9 = FCFF $ 372 Reinvestment Rate = 32/404= 7.9%

Embraer: Status Quo ($)

Reinvestment Rate 25.08% Expected Growth in EBIT (1-t) .2185*.2508=.0548 5.48 %

Return on Capital 21.85% Stable Growth g = 4.17%; Beta = 1.00; Country Premium= 5% Cost of capital = 8.76% ROC= 8.76%; Tax rate=34% Reinvestment Rate=g/ROC =4.17/8.76= 47.62% Terminal Value 5 = 288/(.0876-.0417) = 6272

$ Cashflows Op. Assets $ 5,272 + Cash: 795 - Debt 717 - Minor. Int. 12 =Equity 5,349 -Options 28 Value/Share $7.47 R$ 21.75 Year EBIT(1-t) - Reinvestment = FCFF 1 426 107 319 2 449 113 336 3 474 119 355

4 500 126 374

5 527 132 395

Term Yr 549 - 261 = 288

Discount at $ Cost of Capital (WACC) = 10.52% (.84) + 6.05% (0.16) = 9.81%

Cost of Equity 10.52 %

Cost of Debt (4.17%+1%+4%)(1-.34) = 6.05%

On October 6, 2003 Embraer Price = R$15.51 Weights E = 84% D = 16%

Riskfree Rate : $ Riskfree Rate= 4.17%

Beta 1.07

Mature market premium 4% Firms D/E Ratio: 19%

Lambda 0.27

Country Equity Risk Premium 7.67% Rel Equity Mkt Vol 1.28

Unlevered Beta for Sectors: 0.95

Country Default Spread 6.01%

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Current Revenue $ 3,804 EBIT -1895m NOL: 2,076m

Current Margin: -49.82%

Stable Growth Cap ex growth slows and net cap ex decreases Revenue Growth: 13.33% EBITDA/Sales -> 30% Stable Revenue Growth: 5% Stable EBITDA/ Sales 30% Stable ROC=7.36% Reinvest 67.93%

Terminal Value= 677(.0736-.05) =$ 28,683

Revenues EBITDA EBIT EBIT (1-t) + Depreciation - Cap Ex - Chg WC FCFF Beta Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Debt Ratio Cost of Capital $3,804 $5,326 $6,923 $8,308 $9,139 ($95) $ 0 $346 $831 $1,371 ($1,675) ($1,738) ($1,565) ($1,272) $320 ($1,675) ($1,738) ($1,565) ($1,272) $320 $1,580 $1,738 $1,911 $2,102 $1,051 $3,431 $1,716 $1,201 $1,261 $1,324 $0 $46 $48 $42 $25 ($3,526) ($1,761) ($903) ($472) $22 1 2 3 4 5 3.00 16.80% 12.80% 74.91% 13.80% 3.00 16.80% 12.80% 74.91% 13.80% 3.00 16.80% 12.80% 74.91% 13.80% 3.00 16.80% 12.80% 74.91% 13.80% 3.00 16.80% 12.80% 74.91% 13.80% $10,053 $11,058 $11,942 $12,659 $13,292 $1,809 $2,322 $2,508 $3,038 $3,589 $1,074 $1,550 $1,697 $2,186 $2,694 $1,074 $1,550 $1,697 $2,186 $2,276 $736 $773 $811 $852 $894 $1,390 $1,460 $1,533 $1,609 $1,690 $27 $30 $27 $21 $19 $392 $832 $949 $1,407 $1,461 6 7 8 9 10 2.60 15.20% 11.84% 67.93% 12.92% 2.20 13.60% 10.88% 60.95% 11.94% 1.80 12.00% 9.92% 53.96% 10.88% 1.40 10.40% 8.96% 46.98% 9.72% 1.00 8.80% 6.76% 40.00% 7.98% Term. Year $13,902 $ 4,187 $ 3,248 $ 2,111 $ 939 $ 2,353 $ 20 $ 677

Value of Op Assets $ 5,530 + Cash & Non-op $ 2,260 = Value of Firm $ 7,790 - Value of Debt $ 4,923 = Value of Equity $ 2867 - Equity Options $ 14 Value per share $ 3.22

Forever

Cost of Equity 16.80%

Cost of Debt 4.8%+8.0%=12.8% Tax rate = 0% -> 35%

Weights Debt= 74.91% -> 40%

Riskfree Rate : T. Bond rate = 4.8%

Beta 3.00> 1.10

Risk Premium 4%

Global Crossing November 2001 Stock price = $1.86

Internet/ Retail

Operating Leverage

Current D/E: 441%

Base Equity Premium

Country Risk Premium

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Valuing Global Crossing with Distress



Probability of distress
Price of 8 year, 12% bond issued by Global Crossing = $ 653
t! 8

653 !

120(1 T Distress ) t 1000(1 T Distress) 8  (1.05) t (1.05) 8 t!1

Probability of distress = 13.53% a year  Cumulative probability of survival over 10 years = (1- .1353)10 = 23.37%


Distress sale value of equity

Book value of capital = $14,531 million Distress sale value = 15% of book value = .15*14531 = $2,180 million Book value of debt = $7,647 million Distress sale value of equity = $ 0

Distress adjusted value of equity

Value of Global Crossing = $3.22 (.2337) + $0.00 (.7663) = $0.75

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Adjusted Present Value Model



In the adjusted present value approach, the value of the firm is written as the sum of the value of the firm without debt (the unlevered firm) and the effect of debt on firm value Firm Value = Unlevered Firm Value + (Tax Benefits of Debt Expected Bankruptcy Cost from the Debt)
The unlevered firm value can be estimated by discounting the free cashflows to the firm at the unlevered cost of equity The tax benefit of debt reflects the present value of the expected tax benefits. In its simplest form, Tax Benefit = Tax rate * Debt The expected bankruptcy cost is a function of the probability of bankruptcy and the cost of bankruptcy (direct as well as indirect) as a percent of firm value.

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Excess Return Models



You can present any discounted cashflow model in terms of excess returns, with the value being written as:
Value = Capital Invested + Present value of excess returns on current investments + Present value of excess returns on future investments

This model can be stated in terms of firm value (EVA) or equity value.

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EQUITY VALUATION WITH EQUITY EVA

Current EVA Net Income = - Equity cost = Equity EVA = $ 3104 $ 1645 $ 1459 Expected Growth .60 * 20% =12%

Firm is in stable growth: Growth rate = 5% Return on Equity = 15% Cost of equity =9.40%

Terminal Value= $2220/(.094-.05)=50,459 Net Income - Equity Cost (see below) Excess Equity Return Book Equity= 17997 + PV of EVA= 38334 = Equity EVA=56331 Value/sh = $50.26 $3,599 $1,908 $1,692 $4,031 $2,137 $1,895 $4,515 $2,393 $2,122 $5,057 $2,680 $2,377 $5,664 $3,002 $2,662 Forever Discount at Cost of Equity

Cost of Equity 10.60%

Riskfree Rate 5.00%

Beta 1.40

Risk Premium 4.00%

Base Equity Premium = 4%

Country Risk Premium=0%

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Choosing the right

Can you estimate cash flows? Yes No

Discounted Cashflow Model

What rate is the firm growing at currently? < Growth rate of economy Stable growth model No Is the firm likely to survive? Yes > Growth rate of economy Are the firms competitive advantges time limited?

Are the current earnings positive & normal? Yes Use current earnings as base Yes No Is the cause temporary?

Is leverage stable or likely to change over time?

Use dividend discount model

Stable leverage

Unstable leverage

FCFE

FCFF

Replace current earnings with normalized earnings

No 3-stage or n-stage model

2-stage model No Does the firm have a lot of debt?

Yes Adjust margins over time to nurse firm to financial health Yes

No Estimate liquidation value

Value Equity as an option to liquidate

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Relative Valuation

 

What is it?: The value of any asset can be estimated by looking at how the market prices similar or comparable assets. Philosophical Basis: The intrinsic value of an asset is impossible (or close to impossible) to estimate. The value of an asset is whatever the market is willing to pay for it (based upon its characteristics) Information Needed: To do a relative valuation, you need
an identical asset, or a group of comparable or similar assets a standardized measure of value (in equity, this is obtained by dividing the price by a common variable, such as earnings or book value) and if the assets are not perfectly comparable, variables to control for the differences

Market Inefficiency: Pricing errors made across similar or comparable assets are easier to spot, easier to exploit and are much more quickly corrected.
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Aswath Damodaran

Variations on Multiples


Equity versus Firm Value

Equity multiples (Price per share or Market value of equity) Firm value multiplies (Firm value or Enterprise value) Earnings (EPS, Net Income, EBIT, EBITDA) Book value (Book value of equity, Book value of assets, Book value of capital) Revenues Sector specific variables Most recent financial year (Current) Last four quarters (Trailing) Average over last few years (Normalized) Expected future year (Forward) Sector Market
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Scaling variable

Base year

Comparables

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Definitional Tests

Is the multiple consistently defined?

Proposition 1: Both the value (the numerator) and the standardizing variable ( the denominator) should be to the same claimholders in the firm. In other words, the value of equity should be divided by equity earnings or equity book value, and firm value should be divided by firm earnings or book value.

Is the multiple uniformally estimated?

The variables used in defining the multiple should be estimated uniformly across assets in the comparable firm list. If earnings-based multiples are used, the accounting rules to measure earnings should be applied consistently across assets. The same rule applies with book-value based multiples.

Aswath Damodaran

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An Example: Price Earnings Ratio: Definition

PE = Market Price per Share / Earnings per Share



There are a number of variants on the basic PE ratio in use. They are based upon how the price and the earnings are defined. Price: is usually the current price is sometimes the average price for the year EPS: earnings per share in most recent financial year earnings per share in trailing 12 months (Trailing PE) forecasted earnings per share next year (Forward PE) forecasted earnings per share in future year

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Descriptive Tests

 

What is the average and standard deviation for this multiple, across the universe (market)? What is the median for this multiple?
The median for this multiple is often a more reliable comparison point.

How large are the outliers to the distribution, and how do we deal with the outliers?
Throwing out the outliers may seem like an obvious solution, but if the outliers all lie on one side of the distribution (they usually are large positive numbers), this can lead to a biased estimate.

 

Are there cases where the multiple cannot be estimated? Will ignoring these cases lead to a biased estimate of the multiple? How has this multiple changed over time?

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PE Ratio: Descriptive Statistics

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PE: Deciphering the Distribution

Mean Standard Error Median Standard Deviation Skewness Minimum Maximum Count Largest(500) Smallest(500)

Current PE 36.04 1.94 18.25 123.36 23.13 0.65 5103.50 4024 48.00 9.38

Trailing PE 34.14 2.93 17.25 176.34 28.40 1.35 6914.50 3627 39.60 9.62

Forward PE 30.79 1.15 18.52 57.56 13.66 3.30 1414.00 2491 34.49 12.94

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8 Times EBITDA is not cheap

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Analytical Tests

What are the fundamentals that determine and drive these multiples?
Proposition 2: Embedded in every multiple are all of the variables that drive every discounted cash flow valuation - growth, risk and cash flow patterns. In fact, using a simple discounted cash flow model and basic algebra should yield the fundamentals that drive a multiple

How do changes in these fundamentals change the multiple?

The relationship between a fundamental (like growth) and a multiple (such as PE) is seldom linear. For example, if firm A has twice the growth rate of firm B, it will generally not trade at twice its PE ratio Proposition 3: It is impossible to properly compare firms on a multiple, if we do not know the nature of the relationship between fundamentals and the multiple.

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Relative Value and Fundamentals

Value of Stock = DPS 1 /(k e - g)

PE=Payout Ratio (1+g)/(r-g) PE=f(g, payout, risk)

PEG=Payout ratio (1+g)/g(r-g) PEG=f(g, payout, risk)

PBV=ROE (Payout ratio) (1+g)/(r-g) PBV=f(ROE,payout, g, risk) Equity Multiples

PS= Net Margin (Payout ratio) (1+g)/(r-g) PS=f(Net Mgn, payout, g, risk)

Firm Multiples V/FCFF=f(g, WACC) Value/FCFF=(1+g)/ (WACC-g) V/EBIT(1-t)=f(g, RIR, WACC) Value/EBIT(1-t) = (1+g) (1- RIR)/(WACC-g) V/EBIT=f(g, RIR, WACC, t) Value/EBIT=(1+g)(1RiR)/(1-t)(WACC-g) VS=f(Oper Mgn, RIR, g, WACC) VS= Oper Margin (1RIR) (1+g)/(WACC-g)

Value of Firm = FCFF

1 /(WACC -g)

Aswath Damodaran

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What to control for...

Multiple
PE Ratio PBV Ratio PS Ratio EVV/EBITDA EV/ Sales

Variables that determine it

Expected Growth, Risk, Payout Ratio Return on Equity, Expected Growth, Risk, Payout Net Margin, Expected Growth, Risk, Payout Ratio Expected Growth, Reinvestment rate, Cost of capital Operating Margin, Expected Growth, Risk, Reinvestment

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Application Tests

Given the firm that we are valuing, what is a comparable firm?

While traditional analysis is built on the premise that firms in the same sector are comparable firms, valuation theory would suggest that a comparable firm is one which is similar to the one being analyzed in terms of fundamentals. Proposition 4: There is no reason why a firm cannot be compared with another firm in a very different business, if the two firms have the same risk, growth and cash flow characteristics.

Given the comparable firms, how do we adjust for differences across firms on the fundamentals?
Proposition 5: It is impossible to find an exactly identical firm to the one you are valuing.

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Comparing PE Ratios across a Sector

Company Name PT Indosat ADR Telebras ADR Telecom Corporation of New Zealand ADR Telecom Argentina Stet - France Telecom SA ADR B Hellenic Telecommunication Organization SA ADR Telecomunicaciones de Chile ADR Swisscom AG ADR Asia Satellite Telecom Holdings ADR Portugal Telecom SA ADR Telefonos de Mexico ADR L Matav RT ADR Telstra ADR Gilat Communications Deutsche Telekom AG ADR British Telecommunications PLC ADR Tele Danmark AS ADR Telekomunikasi Indonesia ADR Cable & Wireless PLC ADR APT Satellite Holdings ADR Telefonica SA ADR Royal KPN NV ADR Telecom Italia SPA ADR Nippon Telegraph & Telephone ADR France Telecom SA ADR Korea Telecom ADR PE 7.8 8.9 11.2 12.5 12.8 16.6 18.3 19.6 20.8 21.1 21.5 21.7 22.7 24.6 25.7 27 28.4 29.8 31 32.5 35.7 42.2 44.3 45.2 71.3 Growth 0.06 0.075 0.11 0.08 0.12 0.08 0.11 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.22 0.12 0.31 0.11 0.07 0.09 0.32 0.14 0.33 0.18 0.13 0.14 0.2 0.19 0.44

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PE, Growth and Risk

Dependent variable is: R squared = 66.2% PE

R squared (adjusted) = 63.1% prob 0.0010 0.0001 0.0009

Variable Coefficient SE t-ratio Constant 13.1151 3.471 3.78 Growth rate 121.223 19.27 6.29 Emerging Market -13.8531 3.606 -3.84 Emerging Market is a dummy: 1 if emerging market 0 if not

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Is Telebras under valued?

 

Predicted PE = 13.12 + 121.22 (.075) - 13.85 (1) = 8.35 At an actual price to earnings ratio of 8.9, Telebras is slightly overvalued.

Aswath Damodaran

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PE Ratio without a constant - US Stocks

Mo d el Su mm a ry Mo de l 1 R R Sq ua r e .8 5 6 b . 73 3
a

Adjus t e d R Sq uar e .73 2

St d. Er ro r o f th e Es tim a te 13 5 0.6 77 6 1 93 1 3

a. Fo r r eg re ss io n t hr ou gh th e or igin (th e n o - int e rc e pt m od e l), R Squ ar e m e a su r e s t he pr o po rt ion of t he var ia b ility in th e de p e n de n t varia ble a b ou t th e o rig in ex pla ine d b y r e gr es sion . T his CANNOT b e c o m p ar ed to R Sq ua r e fo r m od e ls whic h inc lu d e a n int er c ep t. b . Pr e d ic tor s: Valu e Line Bet a, P ayou t Ratio , Ex pe c te d Gr owt h in EPS: ne x t 5 ye a rs Co e f fici e n ts a,b ,c Uns t an d ar d iz ed Coe f fic ie nt s Mo de l 1 B Exp e ct e d Gro wth in EPS: n e xt 5 ye ar s Pa yo ut Ra tio Va lu e Lin e B ta e 1 .2 28 - 1 .1 E- 0 2 1 1. 70 5 Std . Er r or .05 5 .01 4 .82 5 St a nd a r dize d C oe ffic ie n ts Be t a .51 4 - .01 3 .38 4 t 22 .1 87 - .7 68 14 .1 84 Sig . .0 0 0 .4 4 3 .0 0 0 9 5% Co nf ide n ce Int e rva l f or B Lo wer Bo un d 1 . 1 19 - . 03 9 1 0. 08 7 Up pe r Bo un d 1.3 3 6 .0 1 7 13 .3 24

a. De p e nd e n t Va r ia b le : Cu r re nt PE b . Line a r Re g r e ss ion t hr ou gh th e Orig in c. We igh te d Le a st Sq u ar e s Re g re ss ion - Weig h te d by Ma r ke t Ca p

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Relative Valuation: Choosing the Right Model

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Contingent Claim (Option) Valuation

Options have several features

They derive their value from an underlying asset, which has value The payoff on a call (put) option occurs only if the value of the underlying asset is greater (lesser) than an exercise price that is specified at the time the option is created. If this contingency does not occur, the option is worthless. They have a fixed life

Any security that shares these features can be valued as an option.

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Option Payoff Diagrams

Strike Price Put Option Call Option

Value of Asset

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Underlying Theme: Searching for an Elusive Premium



Traditional discounted cashflow models under estimate the value of investments, where there are options embedded in the investments to
Delay or defer making the investment (delay) Adjust or alter production schedules as price changes (flexibility) Expand into new markets or products at later stages in the process, based upon observing favorable outcomes at the early stages (expansion) Stop production or abandon investments if the outcomes are unfavorable at early stages (abandonment)

Put another way, real option advocates believe that you should be paying a premium on discounted cashflow value estimates.

Aswath Damodaran

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Three Basic Questions



When is there a real option embedded in a decision or an asset?

There has to be a clearly defined underlying asset whose value changes over time in unpredictable ways. The payoffs on this asset (real option) have to be contingent on an specified event occurring within a finite period. For an option to have significant economic value, there has to be a restriction on competition in the event of the contingency. At the limit, real options are most valuable when you have exclusivity - you and only you can take advantage of the contingency. They become less valuable as the barriers to competition become less steep. The underlying asset is traded - this yield not only observable prices and volatility as inputs to option pricing models but allows for the possibility of creating replicating portfolios An active marketplace exists for the option itself. The cost of exercising the option is known with some degree of certaint
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When does that real option have significant economic value?

Can that value be estimated using an option pricing model?

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Putting Natural Resource Options to the Test



The Option Test:

Underlying Asset: Oil or gold in reserve Contingency: If value > Cost of development: Value - Dev Cost If value < Cost of development: 0 Natural resource reserves are limited (at least for the short term) It takes time and resources to develop new reserves Underlying Asset: While the reserve or mine may not be traded, the commodity is. If we assume that we know the quantity with a fair degree of certainty, you can trade the underlying asset Option: Oil companies buy and sell reserves from each other regularly. Cost of Exercising the Option: This is the cost of developing a reserve. Given the experience that commodity companies have with this, they can estimate this cost with a fair degree of precision.

The Exclusivity Test:

The Option Pricing Test

Bottom Line: Real option pricing models work well with natural resource options.

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The Real Options Test: Patents and Technology



The Option Test:

Underlying Asset: Product that would be generated by the patent Contingency:
If PV of CFs from development > Cost of development: PV - Cost If PV of CFs from development < Cost of development: 0

The Exclusivity Test:

Patents restrict competitors from developing similar products Patents do not restrict competitors from developing other products to treat the same disease. Underlying Asset: Patents are not traded. Not only do you therefore have to estimate the present values and volatilities yourself, you cannot construct replicating positions or do arbitrage. Option: Patents are bought and sold, though not as frequently as oil reserves or mines. Cost of Exercising the Option: This is the cost of converting the patent for commercial production. Here, experience does help and drug firms can make fairly precise estimates of the cost.

The Pricing Test

Bottom Line: Use real option pricing arguments with caution.

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The Real Options Test for Growth (Expansion) Options



The Options Test

Underlying Asset: Expansion Project Contingency If PV of CF from expansion > Expansion Cost: PV - Expansion Cost If PV of CF from expansion < Expansion Cost: 0

The Exclusivity Test

Barriers may range from strong (exclusive licenses granted by the government) to weaker (brand name, knowledge of the market) to weakest (first mover). Underlying Asset: As with patents, there is no trading in the underlying asset and you have to estimate value and volatility. Option: Licenses are sometimes bought and sold, but more diffuse expansion options are not. Cost of Exercising the Option: Not known with any precision and may itself evolve over time as the market evolves.

The Pricing Test

Bottom Line: Using option pricing models to value expansion options will not only yield extremely noisy estimates, but may attach inappropriate premiums to discounted cashflow estimates.

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Summarizing the Real Options Argument

  

There are real options everywhere. Most of them have no significant economic value because there is no exclusivity associated with using them. When options have significant economic value, the inputs needed to value them in a binomial model can be used in more traditional approaches (decision trees) to yield equivalent value. The real value from real options lies in
Recognizing that building in flexibility and escape hatches into large decisions has value Insights we get on understanding how and why companies behave the way they do in investment analysis and capital structure choices.

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Valuation Models

Asset Based Valuation

Discounted Cashflow Models

Relative Valuation

Contingent Claim Models

Liquidation Value Stable Replacement Cost Two-stage Three-stage or n-stage Current

Equity Firm

Sector

Option to delay

Option to expand

Option to liquidate

Market Normalized

Young firms

Equity in troubled firm

Earnings Book Revenues Value

Sector specific

Undeveloped land

Equity Valuation Models Dividends

Firm Valuation Models Patent Undeveloped Reserves

Free Cashflow to Firm

Cost of capital approach

APV approach

Excess Return Models

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Which approach should you use? Depends upon the asset being valued..
Asset Marketability and Valuation Approaches Mature businesses Separable & marketable assets Growth businesses Linked and non-marketable assets

Liquidation & Replacement cost valuation Cash Flows and Valuation Approaches Cashflows currently or expected in near future Cashflows if a contingency occurs

Other valuation models

Assets that will never generate cashflows

Discounted cashflow or relative valuation models

Option pricing models

Relative valuation models

Uniqueness of Asset and Valuation Approaches Large number of similar assets that are priced

Unique asset or business

Discounted cashflow or option pricing models

Relative valuation models

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And the analyst doing the valuation.

Investor Time Horizon and Valuation Approaches

Very short time horizon

Long Time Horizon

Liquidation value

Relative valuation

Option pricing models

Discounted Cashflow value

Views on market and Valuation Approaches Markets are correct on average but make mistakes on individual assets Asset markets and financial markets may diverge Markets make mistakes but correct them over time

Relative valuation

Liquidation value

Discounted Cashflow value Option pricing models

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