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Part One
Basic principles
There are many asset classes out there and many of them are useful to investors. Some asset classes are noted for their long term stability (low risk), others for their high returns. Generally speaking, the higher the reward you are after, the more risk youll need to take. Portfolios can be constructed out of multiple asset classes that exhibit superior risk and return relationships to any single asset, because diversification can significantly reduce risk.
When two investments appear to offer identical risk, investors will prefer to buy the higher returning one. If the market is peopled by reasonably well informed investors, there simply wont be any high returning low risk investments left and nobody will buy high risk assets with a low expected return.
P e rcen t e u r R t n
0001
$A xednI 005XSA/P&S
0051
The last twenty years have seen very good returns for all major asset classes, well in excess of inflation, but the risk and return are highly variable.
Part Two
Negatively correlated assets cancel the greatest amount of each others volatility.
The efficient frontier is the name given to the line that joins all portfolios that have achieved a maximum return for a given level of risk (portfolios that are efficient). If you programmed a computer to chart every possible portfolio that could be constructed out of a group of assets and plotted a point on a risk vs. return chart, the resulting plot usually looks much like the chart below. The top of the curve is the efficient frontier, anything below that curve is an inefficient portfolio, anything actually on the curve, or close to it, is an efficient portfolio.
Return Efficient portfolios on or near the efficient frontier
Rebalancing
Rebalancing a portfolio is the process of adjusting a portfolio to bring it back to its original asset allocation. Since assets perform differently at different times, the portfolio is likely to drift from your desired asset allocation. Failure to rebalance means that a portfolio can change risk profile over time and may no longer be appropriate.
Since 1982 Australian shares (ASX500 index), international shares (MSCI world index) and property securities (ASX300 listed property index) have had roughly the same return
RALLOD FO HTWORG
V a ue o f o la r l D l
$A xednI porP 003 XSA $A xednI 005XSA/P&S $A xednI dlroW ICSM 30/21 10/3 89/6 03
59/9
29/21
09/3
78/6
48/9
18/21 0
52 02 51 01 5
So using our simple rule of thumb that if the three assets have similar returns well use a third in each, we get the following portfolio which has outperformed all three with much less volatility! (Rebalanced monthly)
RALLOD FO HTWORG
V a ue o f o la r l D l
$A xednI porP 003 XSA $A xednI 005XSA/P&S $A xednI dlroW ICSM hcae ni driht enO 30/21 10/3 89/6 59/9
29/21
09/3
78/6
48/9
18/21 0
03 52 02 51 01 5
Over the long term value stocks and small companies have outperformed large companies. These are the returns of global value, large company and small company indexes calculated by Dimensional Fund Advisors from January 1975 December 2003:
)TOLP GOL( RALLOD FO HTWORG
Va ue o f o la r l D l
0001
$A ssorG eulaV labolG $A ssorG egL labolG 70/3 30/8 00/1 69/6 29/11 98/4
58/9
28/2
87/7
47/21 1
001 01
Adding value and small caps to a large cap growth equity portfolio gives a better return than a large cap only portfolio, but the volatility is actually lower, not higher. A mixed portfolio is more efficient.
)TOLP GOL( RALLOD FO HTWORG
V a lu e o f D o l la r
20% global large 20% global value 10% global small
01
Large cap Annualised Return %pa Total Cumulative Return Monthly Standard Deviation Monthly Average Return Annualised Standard Deviation*
oiloftroP egraL
oiloftroP detliT
40/8
10/7
89/6
59/5
29/4
98/3
68/2
38/1
97/21 1
001
Data from Dimensional Fund Advisors DFA Returnw program, gross return of indexes tracked by DFA equity trusts. See http://www.dimensional.com.au *Annualised standard deviation is presented as an approximation by multiplying the monthly or quarterly standard deviation by the square root of the number of periods in a year. Please note that the standard deviation computed from annual data may differ materially from this estimate.
Decisions, decisions
Active funds or passive/index funds? How much to growth assets, how much to income assets? Balance of value stocks to growth stocks? How much large cap shares, how much small caps? How much money to put in developed markets vs. emerging markets? Currency hedged or unhedged international shares? Listed or unlisted property? Short or long maturity fixed interest?
Within the one third allocated to Australian shares in our simple starting portfolio, we can allocate money between large cap growth, small cap growth, large cap value and small cap value. We can also allocate along the lines of industrials vs. resource stocks. Within the one third allocated to international shares we have the same asset classes above, but we can also allocate to developed markets or emerging markets. One might even consider allocating some of the shares investments to private equity (unlisted shares), which may often provide a very high return yet at substantial risk. A small allocation to a risky asset with low correlation to other asset classes can actually reduce the volatility of the overall portfolio. Long/short managed funds can also be useful as they usually have a very low correlation with the indexes.
Are risky assets like emerging markets too risky for conservative portfolios?
Emerging markets are by themselves a very risky asset class, their monthly volatility is about 50% higher than global large companies (DFA indexes). On the other hand, their correlation with the global large caps indexes is quite low. Despite the high volatility of emerging markets, their low correlation with global large cap equities means a small percentage allocation of emerging markets to a global portfolio can actually reduce the volatility of a portfolio while potentially increasing returns.
Addition of emerging markets to a global large cap portfolio
12
Annualised return
25.0%
2.5%
0.0%
4.26
4.28
4.3
4.32
4.34
Monthly std deviation January 1988 to January 2004, DFA Emerging Markets index plus Global Large Company index.
Review of the return vs. volatility of major asset classes from January 1988 to January 2004.
20 18 16 Anu alised return % 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Monthly std deviation % Cash Global bonds Aus bonds Unlisted property trusts Listed property Global Value Aus large Global Small Global Lge Aus small Aus value Emerg Mkts
Obviously some asset classes have been more efficient than others over this time frame, but which asset classes will be best over the next 10 years is another matter entirely. Australian value stocks for example continued to provide strong gains over the last few years as the rest of the stock market, especially international stocks, did poorly. In 2003, Australian small caps rose 40% (nearly twice what large companies returned) despite underperforming over the previous decade. There really is no way to forecast which assets are going to outperform, although that doesnt stop people from trying!
A property of efficient frontiers is that the left side of the chart is usually a lot steeper than the right side. Addition of even a small amount of cash to a share portfolio (here we have used the ASX500 All Ordinaries share index from January 1980 to January 2004) can significantly reduce volatility with very little impact on returns and the addition of a small amount of shares to a cash portfolio can significantly increase returns without increasing volatility much.
Percentage cash in an Australian shares portfolio
Annualised return %
13 12
All cash
11 10 9 0
90% 100%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Part Three
Over a short period of time there is very little difference so it may not be worth taking a risk, but if you do have a long term horizon then serious thought should be put into ways to get an extra percentage point or two out of the portfolio. An extra point of risk is often hard to notice without a computer, but an extra point of return makes a very big difference in the long term! Risk is important but being overly conservative can be a costly mistake over the long term.
$200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
8%
10%
Historical risk and return for model portfolios, February 1985 - December 2003
14.50% A n nu alised retu rn 14.00% 13.50% 13.00% 12.50% 12.00% 11.50% 0.00% 1.00% Conservative 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% High growth Growth Balanced Low growth
High Growth
Growth
Balanced
Low growth
Conservative
Maximum drawdown is another way to look at risk which is more meaningful to most people. Drawdown is calculated as the loss from the highest previous high. The losses each portfolio experienced in past bear markets can be clearly seen and compared.
30.00% 25.00% M axim umdraw dow n 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
Ja 5 n-8
Ja 6 n-8
Ja 7 n-8
Ja 8 n-8
Ja 9 n-8
Ja 0 n-9
Ja 1 n-9
Ja 2 n-9
Ja 3 n-9
Ja 4 n-9
Ja 5 n-9
Ja 6 n-9
Ja 7 n-9
Ja 8 n-9
Ja 9 n-9
Ja 0 n-0
Ja 1 n-0
Ja 2 n-0
Growth Conservative
Balanced
Ja 3 n-0
Compared to the individual asset classes, the historical drawdown of the diversified High Growth portfolio was much less. Individual growth assets have tended to have up to twice the downside risk.
60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03
Australian shares
Global shares
Property securities
High Growth
Citigroup BMI value and growth indexes, July 1989 to Jan 2004 (Australian shares)
Although the value index in this example outperformed the growth index by more than 3%pa, if there is much extra risk in value stocks then it doesnt show in the volatility or drawdown figures.
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jul-89 Jul-90 Jul-91 Jul-92 Jul-93 Jul-94 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03
Longer term in the US: Fama and French large value vs. large growth indexes January 1926 to December 2003. Again, if there is extra risk it isnt obvious in the drawdown figures. Value outperformed growth by more than 2%pa over the entire period but this didnt translate into meaningfully greater downside risk. Value was marginally more volatile though, 7.45% per month vs. 5.48%.
100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Jul-26 Jul-32 Jul-38 Jul-44 Jul-50 Jul-56 Jul-62 Jul-68 Jul-74 Jul-80 Jul-86 Jul-92 Jul-98
Conclusions
Asset allocation is an overlooked and underrated field of investment, but studies show it is more influential on the behaviour of a portfolio than stock selection or market timing, more importantly you can exercise more control over asset allocation whereas the others are often a matter of luck. Used properly, asset allocation is the major risk management tool in an investors arsenal, but it can also be a source of higher returns. Asset allocation can be a complex area with many fine points that are often overlooked and is particularly important for pension portfolios.
Recommended reading
Common Sense on Mutual Funds by John Bogle The Intelligent Asset Allocator by William Bernstein The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation by David Dreman Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein John Neff on Investing by John Neff
Disclaimer:
Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. Investors should seek the advice of their own qualified advisor before investing in any securities. Please note that returns quoted in this article are based on historical performance of indexes, not actual products. Real world products (index funds) are available to track the majority of indexes quoted in this presentation, but returns will be affected by fees and taxes. Past returns are not a reliable indicator of future returns.