Agents of ChangeComputer simulations

and empirical data

Andrzej Nowak Florida Atlantic University Warsaw University

Bubble model of social change

Bubbles of NEW apprear in the sea of OLD and grow Social influence underlies individual choices in social transitions

individual in a social context

each individual affects and is affected by a social context

How can we conceptualize social influence

A number of people gathered in an auditorium to vote on an issue They can discuss their opinions with others before they vote How will the discussion change the outcome of the vote?

How social interactions change attitudes in a group

Imagine that 400 individuals are to vote whether to privatize their company The individuals are sitting in a conference room. There are 20 rows of 20 seats in each row. Each individual comes with an attitude concerning privatization Individuals differ in strength: some are more persuasive than others

Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeight

of bars= strength

Dynamics
Chose an individual, check if this individual will change his/her opinion Each individual adopts the opinion, that is prevalent among his/her neighbors

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

The role of distance

Latane, Bonavento, Nowak, Liu N

Probability of interaction decreases with the square of the distance Results general across cultures: USA, China, Poland, scientists

Distance

Latane, B., Liu, J., Nowak., A., Bonavento, & M., Zheng, L (1995). Distance matters: Physical distance and social impact. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 21, 795-805

Results confirmed in Internet communication study

The role of leaders

Leaders
o highly credible o strongly connected

CommunityMana gement

Social influence
Influence is proportional to
o o o

Number of sources Strength of sources Distance between sources and the target

Dynamics
Chose an individual, check if this individual will change his/her opinion Each individual adopts the opinion, that is most prevalent among his/her neighbors

Initial attitudes in a social groupColor = attitudeHeight

of bars= strength

Final attitudes as the result of social interaction

1. Number of individuals having minority opinion has decreased (polarization) 2. Clustered

Conclusion: Minority opinion can survive by forming clusters

Clustering and polarization in social reality

Polarization
o o

attitude polarization in social groups voting behavior language religions fashions opinions

Clustering
o o o o

Clustering in the choice of food

Clustering in marketing

Goldenberg Prediction of campaign success (15/17)\

Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood; crosses on the roofs indicate conditioner purchase

Generality of the model

Robust properties of the model Critical factors for the emergence of polarization and clustering
o o o

local influence non linearity of influence process individual differences in the strength of persuasion

Leader + followers

Stronghold

Wall

Structure of contacts
The effects of social influence depend on the structure of contacts betwen individuals Opinion clusters follow communication patterns

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Social influence
Leads to clustering Development of local pockets of coherent reality
o o o

belief systems local culture critical role of leaders

Minority influence insocial change

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

When minority has stronger influence than majority, social change may occur
For minority to be stronger it needs to
o o

Have strong argumets Be consistent among themselves and in time

Minority influence takes a different route than majority influence

It is processed in a more rational way Leads to private acceptance Is delayed in time

Simulating minority influence

Add a constant term to the influence of selected opinion The minority grows as a bubble of new in the sea of old The social change happens as these bubbles connect and the old becomes confined to islands These islands are in fact strongholds Double social reality during transitions

Bias favors the minority

Bias withdrawn

Bias reversed

Conclusion
Social transitions occus as bubbles of new in the sea of old They resemble a process of nucleation in physics During the transition two distinct, separated in space, internally coherent realities exist. The transiton occurs as the island of new reality expand at the expence of the old reality

Practical advises for facilitating change

Concentrate on leaders and introduction of a local change Identify leaders who are likely to adopt the new position Form a social network connecting the leaders Give a lot of outside support in the beginning, gradually withdraw the support as the group growth Form a social network around the leaders Form a social network connecting the group Natural experiment (1600 participants) shows Influence and Change, Genocide the effectiveness of theColumbia U. Prevention, method

Testing the theory

The Polish reform

Balcerowicz plan introduced in 1990 transformed the economic system from ineffective central planning to a free market economy

Complex Systems Dynamics

Number of enterprises per capita

1989

1990

Number of enterprises per capita

1991

1992

Education and economic growth

Double reality of social transitions:

Regions of new and old, political and economic data

Voting for pro-reformist parties

Number of enterprises per capita

EU referendum 2002

Dynamics of the economic transition

The critical importance of local processes
A global model cannot explan the dynamics

The importance of the social factors in economic processes: education, culture, history, politics This approach allows us to connect complex macroscopic collective trends to their simple local causes.
Nowak A. Vallacher R.R., Kus, M., Urbaniak, J., (2005) The Dynamics of Societal Transition: Modeling Non-Linear Change in the Polish Economic System, International Journal of Sociology. Nowak, A, Kus, M. Urbaniak J, Zarycki T. (2002) Simulating the coordination of individual economic decisions. Physica A, 297, 613-630 Yarri., G., Nowak A., Rakocy, K., Solomon S., (2008) Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth European Physics Journal B, 62, 4

 As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, which alerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse the situation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoon riots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuye immediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the states they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of the cartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appeal for calm. To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafa set up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders and community heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback. Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international donor, government, and religious organizations.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

How to build social capital?

Sequence of actions where the next action builds on the previous one Each action increases the level of trust among the local society, willingness for cooperation and the belief in success

Social change in Chmielnik (analysis by Praszkier)

Local telephone network Telekardiomat Farmers
Swichboard at the telephone system

Chmielnik Zdrj Mineral water

Change of attitudes Misantrophy to Trust and cooperation

Schools Kazimierz Jaworski Chmielnik

Sewage treatment

Growth of Social capital

Local goverment

200 900 Enterprises Teaching languages and IT Direct sales of farmers products Increase in Entreprenourship and social involvement

Businessman

Young people conduct a court case against alcoholism

Firms high-tech

Economic growth

 Dagmeara Bienkowska: Zegocin: cookbook

o

Failure of previous attmpts of change dissintegtration

Dorota Komornicka: nie nik: very small local funds invested in financing children projects, exhibitions, education

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Pastor James Wuye & Imam Mohammed Ashafa, Nigeria Deeply ingrained, intractable religious conflict, full of hate and eagerness to shed blood. Multiple lurking and conspicuous conflicts, including burning mosques, churches, killing, exiling, etc. Result: multiple conflicts over power and control, decreasing the regions ability to develop.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Dimenensions of conflict
Conflict around the religious issues: unstructured, existing, and direct Conflict around building peace through education: unstructured, potential, and approached in a direct way (organizing Christian/Muslim camps, influencing the schools curriculum)

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Solution
Pastor James Wuye, a Christian priest, and Imam Mohammed Ashafa, a Muslim cleric, are bringing peace and peace-building education to Nigeria. In the past, they were members of militant youth groups, chasing, hating, and harming each other (e.g., James Wuye lost his arm in a clash with Mohammed Ashafas group). At some point, in a moment of mutual enlightenment, they understood that operating together they could bring peace and understanding between their respective religions. They are now using the power of their faith and the example of interfaith cooperation to prevent and intervene in religious and politically motivated conflicts in Nigeria, and especially to educate youth in building avenues to peaceful cooperation. Through TV programs and a portfolio of educational projects, they are changing the model of reacting to any stimulus with violence into a model of dialogue and understanding.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Results
Their other early-warning techniques include deprogramming of violent youth through Christian and Islamic instruction, which teaches forgiveness and nonviolence. They also help communities identify and use traditionally accepted peace-building methods that may have been forgotten or abandoned. To ensure that their ideas are passed on to the next generation, they have set up peace clubs in pre-school, primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions. Each child who goes through the training is encouraged to plant a tree to symbolize their commitment to building, and not destroying, their communities. They have also developed a peace-education curriculum, which is used in schools and by other organizations interested in peace-building, as well as the Ethical Code for Religious Instructions in Schools.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

 As for prevention, they have developed an early-warning mechanism, which alerts the communities to trouble signs, and ways to immediately defuse the situation that is provoking the tension. For instance, the most recent cartoon riots did not spread to many parts of the north because Ashafa and Wuye immediately asked the head of the Christian Association of Nigeria in the states they work in, to go on the radio to condemn the explosive matter of the cartoons and asked the chief imams to accept the condemnation and appeal for calm. To sustain their initiatives in the states where they practice, Wuye and Ashafa set up committees and advisory councils comprising religious leaders and community heads to monitor peace-building efforts and provide feedback. Their initiatives have also been sustained through support from international donor, government, and religious organizations.

Influence and Change, Genocide Prevention, Columbia U.

Questions?