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FACTS
THEORY
Chapter 8: saving, investment, and the real interest rate depend on the supply and demand for loanable funds Chapter 10: unemployment depends on
how well the labor market matches unemployed workers to job vacancies, and how close the wage is to the equilibrium wage
Chapter 12: the price level depends on the quantity of money, and the rate of inflation depends on the growth rate of the quantity of money The factors that affect the real interest rate (Ch. 8) and the inflation rate (Ch. 12) together determine the nominal interest rate
The CPI
Ch 6 Measuring the Cost of Living
The theory of aggregate demand and aggregate supply is based on two theoretical links between Y and P.
Aggregate supply
Aggregate demand
Equilibrium output
Quantity of Output
AGGREGATE DEMAND
AGGREGATE DEMAND
The aggregate demand for goods and services has four components: Aggregate Demand = C + I + G + NX Aggregate Supply = Y In equilibrium, supply = demand Therefore, in equilibrium Y = C + I + G + NX
Bonus slide: why the demand curve for ice cream can t explain the AD curve
The demand curve for an individual commodity is downward sloping because of two effects:
Substitution effect: when ice cream becomes cheaper people buy more ice cream because they are switching from frozen yogurt (a substitute) Income effect: when price of ice cream falls and income is unchanged, people feel richer and, therefore, buy more ice cream Review Chapter 4 The Market Forces of Supply and Demand
But the AD curve can consider only changes in the overall price level. If all prices decrease, there can be no substitution effect It is inconsistent to talk about changes in aggregate demand while assuming unchanged income, because aggregate income must be equal to aggregate demand. Therefore, the income effect can t be applied to the aggregate economy.
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: three reasons The Wealth Effect: a lower price level boosts consumption spending by households The Interest-Rate Effect: a lower price level boosts investment spending by businesses The Exchange-Rate Effect: a lower price level boosts net exports
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Wealth Effect P causes the purchasing power of consumers monetary wealth This causes consumption
Besides, if a price decline is perceived to be temporary it makes sense to buy what you need now, while prices are still low
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Interest Rate Effect P causes nominal interest rate
See Ch. 16 for more on this.
nominal interest rate encourages greater investment spending by businesses (I ) I means aggregate demand (C+I+G+NX)
Foreigners sell the dollars they had been holding in US banks The value of the dollar As a result, US goods become cheaper relative to foreign goods. This makes U.S. net exports increase (NX ) NX means aggregate demand (C+I+G+NX)
Many other factors can affect C+I+G+NX even when the price level stays unchanged. When these factors change, the aggregate demand curve shifts.
P
AD C + I + G + NX
AGGREGATE SUPPLY
The price level does not affect these variables in the long run.
2. . . . does not affect the quantity of goods and services supplied in the long run. Quantity of Output
Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might Shift Any change in the economy that alters the natural rate of output will shift the long-run aggregate-supply curve.
Labor: population growth, immigration, natural rate of unemployment Capital, physical or human Natural Resources: price of imported oil P Technology Laws, government policies
Y
A New Way to Depict Long-Run Growth and Inflation Short-run fluctuations in output and price level should be viewed as deviations from the continuing long-run trends.
The Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run In the short run, an increase in the overall level of prices tends to raise the quantity of goods and services supplied. A decrease in the level of prices tends to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied. Why?
P2 1. A decrease in the price level . . . 2. . . . reduces the quantity of goods and services supplied in the short run.
Y2
Quantity of Output
Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run: three theories The Sticky-Wage Theory The Sticky-Price Theory The Misperceptions Theory But, they all reach the same conclusion:
Quantity of output supplied Natural rate of + output Actual Expected price price level level
a (P
That is, the SRAS curve is upward rising. But the SRAS equation shows that output supplied can increase (Y ) even when P is unchanged, as long as Pe or YN .
So, if either Pe or YN , the AS curve shifts down or to the right
Pe1 = 120
a (P
The Short Run Aggregate-Supply Curve To summarize, the SRAS equation implies that
The SRAS curve is upward rising, and The SRAS curve shifts right if
The expected price falls, or The natural rate of output increases Quantity of output supplied Natural rate of + output Y = YN + a Actual Expected price price level level Pe)
Y P AS1 AS2
a (P
AS
YN
So, production increases beyond the fullemployment level (blue dot) In other words, the AS curve is upward rising
Shape of the AS Curve: The Sticky-Price Theory Prices of some goods and services adjust sluggishly in response to changing economic conditions
An unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms with higher-than-desired prices. This depresses their sales, which induces these firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services they produce.
AS
YN
When this is repeated across the economy, both the overall price level and total output fall
AS
YN
Pe1 = 120
The Short-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Shifts to the Right if: The natural rate of output increases
This happens when there is an increase in:
Labor Physical Capital Human capital Natural Resources Technology.
Price Level
Quantity of Output
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Long-run equilibrium, short-run equilibrium following a disturbance that throws the economy off the long-run equilibrium, the readjustment to the long-run equilibrium
Equilibrium price
P P2 P3 B
Y2
Quantity of Output
P P2 P3 B
ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS: AD
Contraction (leftward shift) in Aggregate Demand
In the short run,
output decreases, the overall price level decreases, and the unemployment rate increases
Either way, the long run effect is that P and Y stays unchanged. Therefore, P Y . But in the long run, the quantity equation of chapter 17 is assumed to be true: M V = P Y. Therefore, M V must fall. If M is unchanged, then V must fall So, the theory predicts that any non-monetary decrease in AD must cause V to fall in the long run
HISTORY
Two big shifts in aggregate demand: Great Depression and World War II
Early 1930s: large drop in real GDP
The Great Depression Largest economic downturn in U.S. history From 1929 to 1933
Real GDP fell by 27% Unemployment rose from 3 to 25% Price level fell by 22%
Two big shifts in aggregate demand: Great Depression and World War II
Early 1940s: large increase in real GDP
Economic boom World War II
More resources to the military Government purchases increased Aggregate demand increased 1939 - 1944 Doubled the economy s production of goods and services 20% increase in the price level Unemployment fell from 17 to 1% 69
Over the course of U.S. economic history, two fluctuations stand out as especially large. During the early 1930s, the economy went through the Great Depression, when the production of goods and services plummeted. During the early 1940s, the United States entered World War II, and the economy experienced rapidly rising production. Both of these events are usually explained by large shifts in aggregate demand.
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Congress
Tax cut in 2001; Immediate tax rebate; Tax cut in 2003 To stimulate consumer & investment spending
CRISIS OF 2008
Securitization
Process by which a financial institution (mortgage originator) makes loan Then (investment bank) bundles them together mortgage-backed securities
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Other issues
Inadequate regulation for these high-risk loans Misguided government policy
Encouraged this high-risk lending
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Economy
Starting to recover from the economic downturn Real GDP - growing again Unemployment 9.5% in June 2010
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ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS: AS
A leftward shift in Short-Run Aggregate Supply
Output falls below the natural rate of employment Unemployment rises Stagflation! The price level rises
If the government does nothing, the SRAS will shift back to where it was.
The price level, total production and unemployment will be unaffected in the long run.
Stagflation
Adverse shifts in aggregate supply cause stagflation a period of recession and inflation.
Output falls and prices rise. Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of these adverse effects simultaneously.
Quantity of Output
Some event - reduces the supply of crude oil flowing from Middle East
Price of oil - rises around the world Aggregate-supply curve shifts left Stagflation
Mid-1970s Late-1970s
Oil and the economy Some event increases the supply of crude oil from Middle East
Price of oil decreases Aggregate-supply curve shifts right
Output rapid growth Unemployment falls Inflation rate falls
Oil and the economy Recent years: World market for oil not an important source of economic fluctuations
Conservation efforts Changes in technology
Summary
All societies experience short-run economic fluctuations around long-run trends. These fluctuations are irregular and largely unpredictable. When recessions occur, real GDP and other measures of income, spending, and production fall, and unemployment rises.
Summary
Economists analyze short-run economic fluctuations using the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. According to the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, the output of goods and services and the overall level of prices adjust to balance aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
Summary
The aggregate-demand curve slopes downward for three reasons: a wealth effect, an interest rate effect, and an exchange rate effect. Any event or policy that changes consumption, investment, government purchases, or net exports at a given price level will shift the aggregate-demand curve.
Summary
In the long run, the aggregate supply curve is vertical. The short-run, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping. The are three theories explaining the upward slope of short-run aggregate supply: the misperceptions theory, the sticky-wage theory, and the sticky-price theory.
Summary
Events that alter the economy s ability to produce output will shift the short-run aggregate-supply curve. Also, the position of the short-run aggregatesupply curve depends on the expected price level. One possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate demand.
Summary
A second possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate supply. Stagflation is a period of falling output and rising prices.