1-

2012

: . . . .

2-4

2012 .

: , , . . . .
2

1. .

Trends Energy consumption map

Source: Bjorn Lomborg The Skeptical Environmentalist

Comparative diagram for energy and electric power 2010

Power in the world

  of the worlds population consumes about of total energy. The average level of power consumption in developing countries is 1/10 of the consumption in the developed countries. Almost two billion people in developing countries have no access to electricity.

Background for forecasts

Population growth and rise of the world energy consumption; Toughening competition for limited and unevenly distributed resources of organic fuel; Increasing dependence on instable situation in the regions of oil-exporting countries; Increasing ecological limitations; Provocative difference in the level of energy consumption in the worlds richest and poorest countries. Under these conditions the role of nuclear energy is increasing as a stabilizing factor of energy and socialpolitical development.
9

Population prospect

10

IIASA/WEC: Prospect for the power industry up to 2050

In developing countries the energy demand will increase as follows: 3 to 5 times for primary energy 5 to 7 times for electricity. In developing countries the increase in demand for primary energy will be over 70% of the total growth in the world.

11

Consumption energy in the world

12 Reference: IEA

IAEA

13

Nuclear power Almost unlimited fuel resource available Ecologically clean energy source Generation of electric power, heat and hydrogen Efficient and cost-effective for the worlds regions

14

Nuclear power
will play the role in solving the problems of global energy security, if

the scales of worlds nuclear capacities are considerably increased more than five-fold by the mid 21st century, the range of consumer-countries and regions are extended.
15

2. .

16

FIRST CHAIN REACTION

BEGINNING OF COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION OF PLUTONIUM

OAK RIDGE K-25 PLANT

THE TRINITY EXPLOSION, 0.016 SECONDS AFTER DETONATION

THE FAT MAN MUSHROOM CLOUD RESULTING FROM THE NUCLEAR EXPLOSION OVER NAGASAKI RISES 18 KM INTO THE AIR FROM THE HYPOCENTER

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2010 22

NUCLEAR PROJECT OF THE USSR. BEGINNING

US AND USSR NUCLEAR STOCKPILES

WORLDWIDE NUCLEAR TESTING, 1945-1998

PROJECT 667 A YANKEE CLASS

RUSSIA S SHARK

3. . -

28

CHICAGO PILE

EBR-1

Some stages of international initiatives on the peaceful use of nuclear energy

The establishment of IAEA

1953 the Atoms for Pease Initiative in the United Nations; 1954 the formulation of the General Assembly Resolution on the establishment of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); 1957 the establishment of IAEA; 1955, 1958, 1964, 1971 the United Nations International Conferences on the

31

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY IAEA

Three Pillars of the IAEA

33

THE FIRST NPP

CALDER HALL

SHIPPING PORT

Construction of nuclear power plants in the world

37

BOHUNICE

THE THREE MILE ISLAND ACCIDENT

THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

Development of regional nuclear generating capacities

140 120 100 140

North America
GWe

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Western Europe

GWe

80 60 40 20 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

90 80 70 60

90

Eastern Europe & CIS

80 70 60

Asia

GWe

40 30 20 10 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

GWe

50

50 40 30 20 10 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

LWGR

BWR DIAGRAM

PRESSURIZED-WATER REACTOR (PWR)

4. .

45

Nuclear Power Today: At a glance

375 GWe installed (approx 11% of global generating capacity) 15% of global electricity supply More than 14,000 reactor-years of operating experience A proven technology that provides clean electricity at predictable & competitive costs Continuously improved economic & safety performance

46

TYPES OF NPP IN THE WORLD

REACTORS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE AND NET ELECTRICAL POWER. 2009

Nuclear power in weapons and non-weapons states (recent situation) .

Parameter In 5+2 nuclear weapons states In 24 nonnuclear weapons states
Japan 56, S. Korea 20 Canada 18, Germany 17 Ukraine 15, Sweden 10 Spain 9, Belgium 7

Number of nuclear power units: in operation under construction Total installed GW(e) in operation under construction

243 11

200 18

216.3 10.6

153.3 11.2

Few companies (Rosatom (Russia), URENCO, USEC (USA), EURODIF (France), CNNC (China) and JNFL (Japan) can enrich uranium on industrial scale. Few countries (France, UK, Russia, Japan, India and China) have nuclear fuel reprocessing capacities. Few countries have advanced fast reactor developments (Russia, France, Japan, India, China) 49

IAEA

Countries are going to use nuclear energy during 2015-2030 and taking some initial actions for that.
Latin America: 3 + 2 expected new (Chile, Peru) Western Europe: 9 + 3 expected new (Italy, Portugal, Turkey) Eastern Europe: 10 + 3 expected new (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Poland) Africa: 1 + 5 expected new (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunis) Middle East&South Asia: 3 + 1 expected new (Bangladesh) South East Asia&the Pacific: 0 + 4 expected new (Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand) Far East: 3 + 3 expected new (North Korea, Philippines, Vietnam) In total about 21 new countries are considering to start using nuclear energy during 2015-2030
50

IAEA

Per-capita electricity consumption and projected nuclear power growth in selected countries and in Africa
Country Years Annual electricity consumption, kWh/capita 1208 421 384 5320 Installed or projected nuclear power capacity, GW(e) 5.3 32-40 2.6 29 0.42 4.2 21 40--45 16.8 26.4 13228 99 ~110 514 1.8 1.8-4.1 0-128%
51

IAEA

Projected growth in nuclear power capacity 6-7 times 11 times 10 times 2 times (100%) 57% 11%

China India Pakistan Russia ROK USA

2002 2020 2002 2022 2002 2030 2002 2020 2005 2015 2002 2020

Africa

2002 2020

Energy Imported Dependence

100%

40

Level of Import Dependence

>80%

69

>50%

97

>20%

135

importers

164
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Number of countries

Near-Term
Generation III+ Designs For US

US EPR by AREVA

ESBWR and ABWR by General Electric

AP1000 by Westinghouse/Toshiba
53

Pressurized Water Reactor Plant

54

5.

55

Consumption energy in the world

56 Reference: IEA

IAEA

Major Developmental Challenges

 World population at 6 billion increasing by 80 million per year  850 million suffer from chronic malnutrition, 6 million child deaths yearly  6 million die annually of cancer, 10 million new cases each year  1.2 billion lack access to safe, secure water supplies  Most of the developing world dependent on agriculture for subsistence and economic growth  Unsustainable human actions pollute the environment
Nuclear Solutions for a World in Need 57

Global Water Resources

Regional LA Workshop 2001/MPS/ Pg

58

Nuclear Medicine
Improving human resource capacity:
physicians, physicists, radiopharmacists Expanding the role of nuclear medicine in cardiology Integrating functional imaging in cancer management programs Investing in technology, including PET planning
Combined PET-CT machine PET-

Nuclear Solutions for a World in Need

59

Nuclear energy KWh/cap in the different region (2008)

60

IAEA

Relative energy content of natural fuel resources

U-238 - 86,7%

Coal - 8,7%

U-235 - 0,4%

Gas - 3,4%
Oil - 0,8%

61

Development NP the role of Innovation

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200

IPCC SRES

GWe installed

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1980

History -- (IAEA) high/low

1990 2000 2010 2020

Innovation (gap) - IEA

2030 2040
62

2050

IAEA

There will be the need for structural changes in the nuclear energy industry complex

Nuclear fuel breeding (fast breeder reactors) and closed nuclear fuel cycle. Application of nuclear energy for process technologies of the industry (high-temperature reactors). Regional small- and medium-sized nuclear power plants.
63

Necessary conditions for a large-scale nuclear power development

Security safeguards
nuclear radiation ecological non-proliferation

64

THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY

6. INPRO ( .

GIF-4 -

66

Two major international initiatives

The Generation IV International Forum (GIF)

International initiative (currently 13 members) to The 4 GIF evaluation areas:

Sustainability Safety and reliability Economics Proliferation Resistance
and Physical Protection

support R&D, within a time frame from 15 to 20 years and to reach technical maturity by 2030

The GIF Charter The First 11 signatories

E.U.

Designed for different applications Electricity, Hydrogen Desalinated water, Heat

GIF charter signed in 2001, Sw 2002, Euratom 2003, + new 68 members:

Generations of nuclear energy

69

Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor (SCWR)

Characteristics  Water coolant above supercritical conditions (374C, 22.1 MPa)  550C outlet temperature  1,700 MWe  Pressure tube or pressure vessel options  Simplified balance of plant Benefits  Efficiency near 45% with excellent economics

70
http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/systems/index.htm

Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR)

Characteristics  He coolant  >900C outlet temperature  250 MWe  Coated particle fuel in either pebble bed or prismatic fuel Benefits  Hydrogen production  Process heat applications  High degree of passive safety  High thermal efficiency option

71
http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/systems/index.htm

Sodium Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR)

Characteristics  Sodium coolant  550C outlet temperature  600-1,500 MWe large size, or  300-600 MWe intermediate size  50 MWe small module option  Metal fuel with pyroprocessing or MOX fuel with advanced aqueous separation Benefits High thermal efficiency Consumption of LWR actinides Efficient fissile material generation

72
http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/systems/index.htm

Lead Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR)

Characteristics  Pb or Pb/Bi coolant  550C to 800C outlet temperature  Small transportable system 50-150 MWe, and  Larger station 300-1,200 MWe  1530 year core life option Benefits  Distributed electricity generation  Hydrogen and potable water  Replaceable core for regional fuel processing  High degree of passive safety  Proliferation resistance through long-life core

73
http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/systems/index.htm

Molten Salt Reactor (MSR)

Characteristics  Fuel is liquid fluorides of U and Pu with Li, Be, Na and other fluorides  700800C outlet temperature  1,000 MWe  Low pressure (<0.5 MPa) Benefits  Waste minimization  Avoids fuel development  Proliferation resistance through low fissile material inventory

74
http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/systems/index.htm

21 - IV)

(GEN

75

Growth of the world demand for electric power

Market share (%)
Total 103 TW h/year
1990 2020 2050 12 19.5 31

Fossil fuel
59 54 30

Hydro + Nonconventional power sources 21 23 35

Nuclear power
20 23 35

*Scenario B from WEC/IIASA Global prospects for the power industry, p. 88, Cambridge University Press (1988) 76

7. .

77

Factors influencing the proliferation risk

Increasing of the scale of nuclear power
 Growth of the number of nuclear power plants, including regional smallsized reactors,  Growth of the number of nuclear fuel cycle facilities and their nomenclature,  Increase of amounts and traffic flows of nuclear materials,  Increase of radioactive waste volumes.

Structural changes in the nuclear energy industry complex

 Nuclear fuel breeding, use of fast breeder reactors,  SNF reprocessing, nuclear fuel recycle, closed nuclear fuel cycle.

The development of nuclear power in the current non-nuclear countries which are historically not ready for the use of nuclear technology (nuclear security and safeguards against the proliferation).

78

Goals focused on increasing the stability of non-proliferation regime The changes in the developing nuclear power can result in more accessibility of nuclear materials and technologies and increase of proliferation risk. New approaches are to be developed and introduced that would provide at least keeping the risk at the current level. Such measures are necessary in all areas that assure the nonproliferation regime:  political,
  institutional, technical.

A systematic analysis is required including a quantitative assessment of proliferation risk as a tool for solving these problems.
79

8.

: , , ,

80

The complex nature of nuclear knowledge

Atomic, Molecular and Condensed Matter Physics 10% Nuclear Physics 11% Life Sciences 18% Safeguards 0,4% Isotopes 1% Non-Nuclear Energy 1% Engineering & Instrumentation 9% Economic, Legal & Social Environmental & Earth 2% Sciences 3% Fusion Research and Technology 7% Nuclear Power & Safety 6% Chemistry 4% Nuclear Fuel Cycle & Radioactive Waste 3%

Nuclear Materials 9%

Elementary Particle Physics 16%

Fast Reactor Knowledge Partnership

IAEA

DATA
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+ links to other Knowledge Resources

KNOWHOW

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