1.

Two balls are drawn successively without replacement from a box which contains 4 white balls and 3 red balls. Find the probability that (a) the first ball drawn is white and the second is red; (b) both balls are red. (a) The second event is dependent on the first. P(E1) = P(white) = 4/7

There are 6 balls left and out of those 6, three of them are red. So the probability that the second one is red is given by: P(E2 | E1) = P(red) = 3/6 = 1/2 Dependent events, so P(E1 and E2) = P(E1) P(E2 | E1) = 4/7 1/2 = 2/7

Rule of Multiplication If events A and B come from the same sample space,
the probability that both A and B occur is equal to the probability the event A occurs times the probability that B occurs, given that A has occurred.

P(A

B) = P(A) * P(B|A)

A. A jar contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement from the urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black? Let A = the event that the first marble is black; and let B = the event that the second marble is black. We know the following: P(A) = 4/10. After the first selection, there are 9 marbles in the urn, 3 of which are black. Therefore, P(B|A) = 3/9. Therefore, based on the rule of multiplication: P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A) P(A B) = (4/10)*(3/9) = 12/90 = 2/15

Suppose we repeat the experiment of Example A; but this time we select marbles with replacement. That is, we select one marble, note its color, and then replace it in the urn before making the second selection. When we select with replacement, what is the probability that both of the marbles are black?

there are 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black. Therefore, P(A) = 4/10. After the first selection, we replace the selected marble; so there are still 10 marbles in the urn, 4 of which are black. Therefore, P(B|A) = 4/10. Therefore, based on the rule of multiplication: P(A P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A) B) = (4/10)*(4/10) = 16/100 = 4/25

Independent and Dependent events

DEPENDENT Events Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence of one affects the occurrence of the other.
A bag contains 5 white marbles, 3 black marbles and 2 green marbles. In each draw, a marble is drawn from the bag and not replaced. In three draws, find the probability of obtaining white, black and green in that order.

We have 3 dependent events. =5/10 x 3/9 x 2/8 = 1 /24

Independent Events Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of others.
If A and B are independent events, then probability of both occurring is: P(A) x (B)

1.

A fair die s tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4,5 or 6 on the first toss and a 1,2,3 or 4 on the second toss = 3/6 x 4/6 = 12/36 or 1/3

2. What is the probability of rolling a 3 with a dice, and drawing a 3 from a deck of cards? P(A n B) = 1/6 x 4/52 = 1/78

1. A bag contains 5 white and 8 black balls, 2 balls are drawn at random. Find a) The probability of getting both the balls white, when the first ball drawn, is replaced. b) The probability of getting both the balls white, when the first ball is not replaced. 2. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of these. a. Getting 3 jacks b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order d. Getting 3 clubs

3. Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective? 4. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die. 5. The small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies, the probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a building burning, find the probability that both the ambulance and fire engine will be available.

6. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and place unseen in the second bag. What is the probability that a ball drawn now from the second bag is black 7. Three cards are drawn in succession, without

replacement, from an ordinary cards. Find the probability that A B C occurs where A is the event

that first card is a red ace, event B the second card is 10 or a jack, and events C for third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.

CALCULATING PROBABILITIES FOR COMBINATIONS OF EVENTS A. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES Given two events A and B, if we want to determine the probability of the intersection of the two events, P(A B) we answer this question: What is the probability that events A and B will occur? If on the other hand, we want to determine a conditional probability for these events, we answer a related but different question: What is the probability of A occurring given that B is known to have occurred? Or the reverse question: What is the probability of B given that A is known to have occurred?

The conditional probability of A, given B, denoted by :

P(AB) P(AB) = ----------------------P(B)

provided that P(B) { 0

The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by :

P(AB) P(BA) = ----------------------P(A)

provided that P(A) { 0

1.

The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is 0.83, the probability that it arrives on time is 0.92, and the

probability that it departs and arrives on time is 0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives on time given that it departed on time, and (b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time 2. The probability that an automobile being filled with gasoline will also need an oil change is 0.25, the probability that it needs a new filter is 0.40 and the probability that both the oil and filter need changing is 0.14. a) If the oil had to be changed, what is the probability that a new filter is needed? b) If a new oil filter is needed, what is the probability that the oil has to be changed?

3.

A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.

Gender Male Female Total Find these probabilities.

Yes 32 8 40

No 18 42 60

Total 50 50 100

a) The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female. b) The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.

4. A committee is composed of six democrats and five republicans. Three of the democrats are men and three of the republicans are men. If a man is chosen for chairman, what is the probability that he is a republican? 5. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability that all three are heads. A. If it is known that the first is head B. If it is known that the first 2 are heads C. If it is known that 2 of them are heads 6. A survey was made of 100 customers in a dept. store. Sixty of the 100 indicated they visited the store because of the newspaper ads. The remainder has not seen the ads. A total of 40 customers made purchases, of these customers 30 had seen the ads. What is the probability that a person did not see the ad made a purchase? What is the probability that a person who saw the ads made a purchase?

7. A coin is tossed three times and 2 heads and 1 tail fall: what is the probability that the first toss was a head?

8. The probability that the doctor correctly diagnoses a particular illness is 0.70. given that the doctor makes an incorrect

diagnosis, the probability that the patient enters a lawsuit is 0.90. what is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis and the patient sues?

9. A real state agent has 8 master keys to open several new homes. Only one master key will open any given house. If 40% of these homes are usually left unlocked, what is the probability that the real estate agent can get into a specific home if the agent selects 3 master keys at random before leaving an office?

10. The probability that Tom will be alive in 20 years is 0.70 and the probability that Nancy will be alive in 20 years is 0.90, what is the probability that neither will be alive in 20 years? 11. The probability that a vehicle entering the Luray Caverns has Canadian license plates is 0.12; the probability that it is a camper is 0.28; and the probability that it is a camper with Canadian plate is .09. What is the probability that; a) A camper entering the Luray Caverns has canadian license plates? b) A vehicle with canadian license plates entering the Luray Caverns is a camper? c) A vehicle entering the Luray Caverns does not have canadian license plates or is not a camper?

Statistics: Bayes' Theorem (aka, Bayes' Rule) Bayes' theorem (also known as Bayes' rule) is a useful tool for calculating conditional probabilities. Bayes' theorem can be stated as follows: Bayes' theorem. Let A1, A2, ... , An be a set of mutually exclusive events that together form the sample space S. Let B be any event from the same sample space, such that P(B) > 0. Then,
P( Ak B ) B ) + P( A2 B ) + . . . + P( An

P( Ak | B ) =

P( A1

B)

P( Ak | B ) =

P( Ak ) P( B | Ak ) P( A1 ) P( B | A1 ) + P( A2 ) P( B | A2 ) + . . . + P( An ) P( B | An )

1. In a certain plant, three machines, A, B, C makes 30%, 45%, 25%, respectively of the products. It is known that from past experiences that 2%, 3% and 2% of the product made by each machine, respectively are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly selected, a) what is the probability that it is defective. b) If a product was chosen and found out to be defective. What is the probability that it was made by machine C? Answer: Make an assumption: Let D = defective products A = product for machine A B = product for machine B C = product for machine C

2. Ana holds a box of 3 red and 2 white balls and Benjie has a box of 5 red and 2 white balls. We play a game by tossing a coin. If head came up, we pick a ball at Ana s box; If tails, we pick a ball from Benjie s box.

a) Find the probability that a white ball is chosen. b) Suppose that it turned out to be white. What is the probability that it came from Ana s box?

3. Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year.

Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding?

4. A machine produces defective parts with three different probabilities depending on the state of repair. If the machine is in good working order, it produces defective parts with probability 0.02. If it is wearing down, it produces defective parts with probability 0.1. If it needs maintenance, it produces defective parts with

probability 0.3. The probability that the machine is in good working order is 0.8, the probability that it is wearing down is 0.1, and the probability that it needs maintenance is 0.1. Compute the probability that a randomly selected part will be defective.

5. Jar 1 has 2 white and 3 green balls, Jar 2, 4 white and 1 green and jar 3, 3 white and 4 green. A jar is selected at random and a ball drawn at random and it is found to be white. Find the probability that Jar 1 was selected. 6. A production engineers knows that 5% of all the PCBs they manufactured are defective, 92% of all the PCBs that are defective are also rated defective by their QC department and 2% of all the PCBs that are not defective are rated defective by the QC dept. What is the probability that a PCB that are rated defective by a QC is actually defective?

7. There are 3 urns A, B and C each containing a total of 10 marbles of which 2, 4 and 8 respectively are red. A pack of cards is cut and a marble is taken from one of the urns depending on the suit shown - a black suit indicating urn A, a diamond urn B, and a heart urn C. What is the probability a red marble is drawn?

8. Of all the smokers in a particular district, 40% prefer brand A and 60% prefer brand B. Of those smokers who prefer brand A, 30% are females, and of those who prefer brand B, 40% are female. What is the probability that a randomly selected smoker prefers brand A, given that the person selected is a female?

Seatwork:

1. A class in physics is comprised of 10 juniors, 30 seniors and 10 graduate students. The final grades show that 3 of the juniors, 10 of the seniors and 5 of the graduate students received an A for the course. If a student chosen at random from this class and is found to have earned an A, what is the probability that he or she is a senior? (2.78)

2. The probability that a head of household is home when a telemarketer representative calls is 0.40. Given that the head of the household is home, the probability that goods will be bought from the company is 0.30. Find the probability that the head of the house is home and goods being bought from the company. (2.88)

3. In an experiment to study the relationship of hypertension and smoking habits, the following data are collected for 180 individuals; (2.80)

Non Smokers Hypertension Non-Hypertension 21 48

Moderate smokers 36 26

Heavy smokers 30 19

If one of these individual is selected at random, find the probability that the person is: a) Experiencing hypertension, given that the person is a heavy smoker b) Non smoker, given that the person experiencing no hypertension

4. The probability that a married man watches a certain TV show is 0.40 and the probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.50. The probability that a man watches the show given that his wife does is 0.70. Find the probability that: (2.85) a) A married couple watches the show b) A wife watches the show given that her husband does c) At least 1 person of a married couple will watch the show

Party Republican Democrat

In Favor 98 79

Not Favor 54 29

A political telephone survey of 260 people asked whether they were in favor or not in favor of the proposed law. Each person was identified as republican and democrat. A person from the survey is selected at random. 1. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law 2. Determine the probability that the selected person is a Republican 3. Determine the probability that the selected person is not in favor of the new law

Party Republican Democrat

democrat

In Favor 98 79

Not Favor 54 29

4. Determine the probability that the selected person is a

5. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law given that the person is a Republican 6. Determine the probability that the selected person is not in favor of the new law given that the person is a Republican 7. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law given that the person is a Democrat 8. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law and the person is a Republican

Party Republican Democrat

In Favor 98 79

Not Favor 54 29

9. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law and the person is a Democrat 10. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law or the person is a Republican 11. Determine the probability that the selected person is in favor of the new law or the person is a Democrat 12. Using Bayes rule, calculate the probability that the selected person was a republican, given that the person was in favor of the new law