SAMPLING

ISI:

Arti Sampling (Pengambilan sampel) Bebagai macam sampling Menentukan besar sampel

Basic Statistics and Sampling Theory

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FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS AND SAMPLING THEORY

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What the Experts Say

There are two kinds of statistics: the kind you look up and the kind you make up
--Rex Stout (1886-1975), Death of a Doxy

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics
--Mark Twain (1835-1910), American novelist and humorist, Autobiography

Learning Objectives

Discuss the meaning and use of statistics for marketing research Explain why researchers use samples and why findings based on a sample can approximate the findings for the population Identify measures of dispersion Discuss the normal distribution and explain sampling process Describe how to properly collect samples Explain how to determine sample size and perform some calculations

Get This! The Numbers Arent Perfect, But Theyre Close

A pollster surveys about 1,000 people and declares the results valid for a nation of almost 200 million adults. How can so few stand for so many? What is the justification for such a claim? The answer lies in the laws of probability. While it cant be 100% accurate, a well-designed, well-executed poll can come pretty close. Unfortunately, especially in an election year, there are many bad polls and many sources of error beyond the reach of mathematics.

 The

first step in polling is to obtain a truly random sample. Once you have collected a random sample of a given size, the laws of probability allow you to calculate two things: How much your sample differs from the whole population, a.k.a., sampling error or margin of error? How likely it is that your results fall within that error margin?

Now Ask Yourself

Do

you believe that most marketers have the same sampling problems as political pollsters? Why or why not? Does it make sense to you that the size of the population doesnt enter into the equation for determining sample size? Do you agree with the statement: While it cant be 100% accurate, a well-designed, well-executed poll can come pretty close?

Meaning of Statistics

As a plural term, statistics are numerical data As a singular term, statistics is the process of gathering, organizing, summarizing, presenting, and analyzing data, and inferring (making decisions) based on the analysis Statistics provides methods to systematically organize, present, analyze, and interpret information effectively Quantitative information suitable for statistical analysis must be a set(s) of numbers showing meaningful relationships

Ethical Reporting of Statistical Data

Statistics

can help in understanding much of the information gathered in marketing, but they can be misused. Sometimes companies report statistics inaccurately by accident; other times, they purposely report inaccurate statistics to mislead the public and other groups. Most research organizations are honest, but some organizations report less-than-accurate statistics for financial gain

Populations and Census

Population or Universe is the entire group of people, markets, companies, or products that is being investigated by the researcher
Finite Population. Has a limited or fixed number of individuals or objects Infinite Population. Has an unlimited or non-fixed number of individuals or objects

Parameter. A measurement used to describe some characteristic of a population Census. When a population is is sampled in its entirety.

Samples
Subset of representative units from the population. The sample is used to represent the population for statistical study, and the findings from the sample are used as the basis for estimating or predicting the characteristics of the population

Measures of Dispersion
The

values in a group of statistical data usually vary in magnitude. The variation of the values is called Dispersion. Measure of dispersion is useful in two ways: Can show the degree of variation among values in a given data set Can supplement an average to describe a group of data or to compare one group of data with another

Measure of Dispersion can be expressed as either raw units or relative units. Raw Unit. Used to describe the dispersion for a single set of values Relative Unit. Used when the averages for the sets are distinctively different The most common types of dispersion expressed in raw units are: Range. Difference between the lowest and the highest values Standard Deviation And Variance. The most popular measures of variability. They assess the spread (variance) in the data. The standard deviation of a set of values is the square root of the arithmetic mean of the individual deviations squared.

Normal Distribution

A frequency distribution represented graphically by a bellshaped curve that is symmetrical about the mean Normal Curve. The bell-shaped curve that depicts the normal distribution. Almost all (99.7 percent) of the normal curves values are within +3 standard deviations from its mean. Since the normal distribution is symmetrical, the midpoint under the curve is the mean of the distribution. While there are an infinite number of normal distribution curves, statisticians have simplified things for researchers by calculating areas under a special normal distribution curve that has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This special curve is called the standard normal distribution curve.

Confidence Interval
Reflects

a range of values that we are confident, but not certain, contains the population parameter The wider the confidence interval, the more confident we are that the particular interval will contain our parameter. The narrower the confidence interval, the less confident we are that the particular interval will contain our parameter

Sampling
Cost

and time considerations usually make surveying an entire population impractical, so companies take a sample of elements to represent the target population It is undeniable to most statistical experts that both small and large samples can be highly accurate provided the sampling plan is sound An important part of the plan is to use a correct sampling frame

The Sampling Process

Define the Target Population Identify the Sampling Frame

Choose the Sampling Method

Determine the Sample Size

Gather the Data

Identify The Sampling Frame

Sampling Frame. Actual list of each element or member of the target population Sampling Biases
Nonresponse Bias. A.k.a., Nonresponse Error, occurs when a high percentage of respondents choose not to participate in the study
Noncooperation Noncontact Passive Refusal

Inaccurate Sampling Methods. An inaccurate sampling frame happens when, for example, samples for surveying a firms customers are based on a list provided by the firm. The list may be a list of accounts rather than a list of customers. This would result in a customer with three accounts having a triple probability of being drawn into a sample To reduce the chance of sampling bias and to allow for statistical analysis, a random sample should be taken

Choosing The Sampling Method

Probability

Sample. A subset of the population in which the probability of selection is known and nonzero for every sampling unit in the population Nonprobability Sampling. Any subset of a population in which the probability of obtaining the sample cannot be computed.

Types of Sampling Methods

SAMPLING METHODS

Probability Sampling

Nonprobability Sampling

Simple random sampling

Systematic sampling

Stratified sampling

Cluster sampling

Judgment sampling

Convenience sampling

Quota sampling

Snowball sampling

Probabilistic Sampling

Every unit in the target population has a known and nonzero chance of being selected
Simple Random Sampling. Each element of the population or each possible sample of the same size from the population has an equal chance of being selected Systematic Sampling. A sample is drawn arbitrarily choosing a beginning point in a list and then sequentially selecting every kth element from the list

 Stratified Sampling. Researcher divides population into natural subgroups that are more homogeneous than the population as a whole. Then items are selected for the sample at random or by a systematic method from each subgroup. Cluster Sampling. Performed by choosing a random sample of subgroups and all members of the subgroups become part of the sample

Nonprobabilistic Sampling

Violates scientific principles, since the researchers personal judgment dominates when selecting sample elements. Therefore, there is no way to determine the probability of selecting a specific element into the sample. As a result, the findings obtained from nonprobability sampling techniques are not projectable to the population.
Judgment Sampling. Sample items are selected by using a researchers personal judgment Convenience Sampling. Selecting sample items that are close at hand or otherwise easy to obtain

 Quota Sampling. Researchers determine the percentage of the target population that possesses the characteristics of interest and then specify the number of these individuals to be included in the sample to reflect their proportion in the population Snowball Sampling. Initial respondents provide names of additional respondents to include in a sample. Researchers use this referral method when potential respondents are difficult to locate because they are a tiny part of the entire population

Determine The Sample Size

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Determining sample size involves both managerial and financial considerations There is no direct relationship between the size of the population and the size of the sample needed to estimate a certain population parameter Generally the sample size will not be more than 10% of the population Typically the larger the sample size, the less the sampling error The costs of larger samples tend to increase on a linear basis: not so for sampling error

Methods For Determining Sample Size

Blind guessing Industry rules of thumb Affordability method Statistical method

Statistical Method for Computing Sample Size

Desired Precision (+E). Asks How precise does the measurement need to be? Value Associated With Desired Confidence Level (Z). Asks How confident do you want to be that the specified confidence interval takes in the population mean? Estimator Of The Standard Deviation Of The Population (s). Asks How heterogeneous are the members that are being investigated?

Methods to Estimate the Population Standard Deviation

Use information from an earlier study Conduct a small-scale study of the population Use secondary data Talk to informed people

Determining Sample Size: Means

Z 2s2 n 2 E
Z = standardized value associated with desired level of confidence s = estimator of the population standard deviation E = acceptable magnitude of sampling error (that is, precision)

Determining Sample Size: Proportions

Desired Precision (E). Researchers must determine the largest acceptable difference between the sample proportion and the population proportion, specified as an acceptable degree of sampling error (E) Value Associated With Desired Confidence Level (Z). The greater the desired confidence, the larger the sample size must be Estimator Of The Standard Deviation Of The Population (s). This proportion may be estimated in a similar way to that used to approximate the standard deviation when calculating sample size using mean statistics

Net Impact

The Internet can help in the presentation of information The Internet can be used to sample respondents from a broad population Many studies conducted on the Internet use nonprobabilistic sampling techniques, which considerably limits the extent to which results can be projected to the general population The Internet can be used to help researchers estimate the population standard deviation, which is necessary when determining sample size

Decision Time!
As a marketing manager, you learn from your companys researchers that they can reduce sampling problems if they can increase the sample size. Lets say that your market consists of only 2,500 people. Would you tell them to go ahead and sample everybody in the population or use the sample size formula to calculate the number of people to sample, given a certain margin of error? What factors should you consider when making this important decision?