LOAD FORCASTING & CHARACTERISTICS OF LOADS

From-

Submitted toMrs.Suman bhullar

Amandeep Gill ME-PSED Roll-801041001

Classification of loads
Load means demand or energy Demand is the time rate of energy Loads are classified as given below

Resenditial load Commercial load Industrial load Other loads

Characteristics of loads

Forecast
Forecast refers to projected load requirments determined using a systematic process of defining future loads in sufficient quantitative detail to permit system expansion decission Planning in advance for gestation period

Forcasting methodology
Extrapolation:it involve fitting trend curves to basic historical data adjusted to reflect the growth trend itself - Deterministic - Probabilistic - stochastic Correlation:it relate system loads to various DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC factors

Factors for accurate forecasts

Weather influence Time factors

Customer classes

Weather Influence
Electric load has an obvious correlation to weather. The most important variables responsible in load changes are: Dry and wet bulb temperature Dew point Humidity Wind Speed / Wind Direction Sky Cover Sunshine

Time factors
In the forecasting model, we should also consider time factors such as: The day of the week The hour of the day Holidays

Customer Class
Electric utilities usually serve different types of customers such as residential, commercial, and industrial.

Load Forecasts

Short term forecasts Medium forecasts Long term forecasts (one hour to a week) (a month up to a year) (over one year)

Load Forecasting Categories Short-term load forecasting One hour ~ One week Control and schedule power system in everyday operations Medium-term and Long-term load forecasting One week ~ longer than one year Determine capacity of generation, transmission, distribution systems, type of facilities required in transmission expansion planning,

Long Term Forecasting

The focus of this project was to forecast the annual peak demand for distribution substations and feeders. Annual peak load is the value most important to area planning, since peak load most strongly impacts capacity requirements.

Model Description
The proposed method models electric power demand for close geographic areas, load pockets during the summer period. The model takes into account: Weather parameters (temperature, humidity, sky cover, wind speed, and sunshine). Day of the week and an hour during the day.

model
A multiplicative model of the following form was developed L(t)=L(d(t),h(t))f(w(t))+R(t) where: L(d(t),h(t)) is the daily and hourly component

L(t) is the original load f(w(t)) is the weather factor R(t) is the random error

Scatter Plot of the Actual Load Vs the Model

Weather Normalized Load Profiles

Weather Normalized Load Profiles
Sun 1.4 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

1.2

0.8

MW
0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hours

Actual Load Profiles

Actual Load Profiles
Sun 400 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

350

300

250

MW

200

150

100

50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hours

Correlation Between the Actual Load and the Model

Correlation between the Actual Load and the Model
0.99

0.985

0.98

Correlation

0.975

0.97

0.965

0.96

0.955 1 2 3 4 5 Iteration 6 7 8 9 10

R-square Between the Actual Load and the Model

Regression Output : R2 (defined as the proportion of variance of the response that is predictable from the regressor variables)
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6

R2

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Iteration

Short Term Forecasting

We need STLF for problem like 1. unit commitment 2. economic dispatch The regression model used is

f wt 0 i,t X i ,t
i ,

where Xi,t- are non-linear functions of the appropriate weather parameters.

 If minor error occur in ve direction then immediately start peaking unit which are inefficient & costly If error occur in +ve direction then there is excessive generation in hot reserve A temp. difference of 2 degree can vary total load by 1 percent Acurracy around 1 percent is desirable So there is need of reliable weather forcast Random factors

THANK YOU