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JM MORGAN STANLEY
Table of Contents
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6
What is Risk? Exploration Risk Market Risks Political Risks Environmental Risks Risk Mitigation Structure: The VPP Model
JM MORGAN STANLEY
Section 1
What is Risk?
JM MORGAN STANLEY
What is Risk?
Risk
Risk Stems from uncertainty where information about a situations outcome is: Insufficient Lacking or Simply Wrong Project Risk: Refers to uncertainty arising from the financial, political, contractual and market context in which a project is undertaken that might have potential adverse consequences for the sponsors claims on, and equity investments, in that project Risks may be specific to the sub-sector, country and political environments
JM MORGAN STANLEY
What is Risk?
Exploration Risks
Environmental Risks
Reserve Risk
E&P Project
Market Risks
Political Risks
Economic Risks
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What is Risk?
1. Identification of Risks: Conduct feasibility studies - Appointment of consultants and specialists Accumulate experience with a range of projects and settings 2. Assessment of severity : Evaluate assessments of consultants and risk advisors Ratings and Rankings are a useful source of measuring and assessing risks Decide which risks are the most important? 3. Mitigation (reduce the risks, if you can): Redesign the project to increase revenues or decrease costs Conduct further analysis (assessment) Abandon the project: Be willing to walk away Be careful of psychological commitment Remember sunk costs are sunk 4. Allocation of risks (mitigation does not eliminate all risks): Contractual allocation Write a contract if possible and cost effective Often too costly to write a complete contract Incomplete contracts lead to incentive conflicts Residual allocation Solve incomplete contracts with residual allocation Co-locate residual risks and returns Give the risk bearer an incentive to manage the risks
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Section 2
Exploration Risk
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Exploration Risk
Exploration Risks
Uncertainty of not finding the projected quantities of oil with the requisite geometric conditions
Fluid Uncertainty
Quantities of trapped hydrocarbons
Geometric Uncertainty
Trap Position Trap Shape
Interpretative Uncertainty
Stems from use of indirect measures
Parametric Uncertainty
Stems from incomplete knowledge of basin
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Exploration Risk
Classification
Proven Reserves Probable Reserves Possible Reserves
Extractability
Reserve Risk
Percent Full-up
Porosity Gas / Oil Ratio
Geometry Factor
Formation Volume Factors Rock Formulation
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Exploration Risk
Engineering Scenarios Conceptual Development Plan Facilities Costs Production Profile Recovery Factor
Decision
Post-drill Review
Most exploration risks can be identified through in-depth geometric, volumetric and flow studies Data gathered must be integrated with engineering and economic analysis to facilitate decision making However, interpretative and parametric uncertainty can only be minimized, not completely eliminated Necessary that experts interpret all available data - Use of different interpretative scenarios" Computation of sensitivity indices Gather data from previously drilled wells in the area
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Exploration Risk
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Section 3
Market Risks
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Market Risks
Market Risks
Market Risk
Price Risk
Prices of Hydrocarbons can often be volatile Influenced by geopolitical instability and developments in the host country Extraction costs Assumes greater significance for oil
Purchaser Risk
Is there an organized market for the product? Purchaser risk is lower for oil Existence of international spot and forward market Higher for low grade hydrocarbons and gas
Payment Risk
Risk of not receiving payment on product delivered Possible if output must be sold to one buyer or a select group of buyers
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Market Risks
Payment Risk
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Section 4
Political Risks
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Political Risks
Political Risks
Stems from the overall uncertainty related to the exercise of power by a foreign government and by non- governmental actors and its ramifications
Political Risk
Direct
Risk Nationalization Expropriation Crime Terrorism Kidnapping Impact Total Cessation Total Cessation Production Delays Cessation / Delays Production Delays
Indirect
Risk Civil Unrest Martial Law Remittance Constraints Fiscal Change Ineffective Legal System Ideological / Cultural Opposition Impact Production Delays Production Delays Cashflow Delays Change in Cashflow Production Delays / Effect on Revenues Production Delays / Effect on Revenues
Interactive
Risk Exchange Controls Labor Unrest Corruption Bureaucracy Pressure Groups Impact Cashflow Delays Production Delays Production Delays Production Delays Production Delays
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Political Risks
Difficult to quantify - no single way to eliminate Can be managed by thorough review of the political, legal and regulatory regime in the host country Ensure that all laws and regulations are strictly complied with and all correct procedures are followed Some ways of managing and reducing political risks include: Involvement of multilateral agencies Private market insurance
Insurance from national export credit agencies (ECGD, COFACE, HERMES etc.)
Obtaining assurances from relevant government departments in the host countries before commencement of project Securing guarantees from the central bank of host country regarding the availability of foreign exchange when required Government to Government contact
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Political Risks
Bank of America World Information Services Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI) S.A. Control Risks Information Services (CRIS) Economist Intelligence Unit Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) Euromoney - Ratings Institutional Investor S&P Rating Group Moody's Investor Services
IMD: World Competitiveness Scoreboard World Economic Forum: Competitiveness Index Lehman Brothers and Eurasia: Political & Economic Stability Index BERI: Political Risk Index COFACE Credit Ratings AT Kearney: FDI Confidence Index / Globalization Index / Attractiveness Index PricewaterhouseCoopers: Opacity Index Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index UNDP: HDI
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AT Kearney
Int. Country Risk Guide Coplin-O'Leary Rating System
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Section 5
Environmental Risks
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Environmental Risks
Environmental Risks
Key Pollutants
Many of the materials & wastes associated with drilling and production activities have a potential for environmental adverse effects The scale of environmental impact depends primarily on the material, concentration after release, the environment that is exposed Degree of environmental risk would depend upon:
Production Activities
Produced contaminated water Dissolved & suspended hydrocarbons and other organic materials, as well as dissolved & suspended solids Chemicals are used during production to ensure operation efficiency Impurities from natural gas production: carbon dioxide, and hydrogen sulfide Air emissions from: combustion engines - pumps and compressors (NO and NO 2 , & partially burned hydrocarbons) heater treaters, boilers, and steam generators (NO and carbon monoxide) In case the company also undertakes transport and storage of crude there is risk of spillage
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Environmental Risks
Phases
Exploration Phase
Action
Preliminary impact assessment Reconnaissance campaign Specific impact assessment Antipollution plan (OSCP)
Development Phase Preliminary and design surveys Pre- projects and projects Building works Development Initial ground zero status Environmental Impact Assessments Environmental Monitoring
Production Phase Production Extension Antipollution plan (OSCP) Environmental Management Plan Abandonment Phase Cessation Dismantling Restoration of site Programme for cessation of activity and restoration of site Follow- up and audit
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Section 6
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Investors analyze the following important elements in assessing the level of risk:
Ratio of the reserve categories (PDP:PDNP:PUD) Geographical diversity Delivery locations
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Floating $
Notes
Asset Seller
SPV
Investors
VPP Valuation
The key determinant in the VPP valuation will be risk associated with the production of the reserves Investors will analyze the following important elements in assessing the risk Ratio of the reserve categories (PDP:PDNP:PUD) Geographical diversity Delivery locations
Risk analysis conducted by the VPP investor
Factor Ratio of proved reserve categories (PDP:PDNP:PUD) Description Investors will be more comfortable with PDP assets as the reserve profile analysis would be supported by actual production data. The comfort level would be lower for PDNP assets. Given the significant capital expenditure required to bring PUD assets to a production stage, VPP investors will be least comfortable with assets in this category Since hydrocarbon production can be disrupted during inclement weather, for example for off-shore assets, geographic concentration increases the risk profile of the assets Delivery Locations
0
The valuation for the VPP will primarily be a function of the discounted present value of the reserve production purchased by the VPP purchaser
The Asset Purchaser is responsible for the cost of production and delivery of the hydrocarbon assets purchased under the VPP. Therefore, the critical variables that will impact the VPP valuation are: the forward price of the hydrocarbons, the production profile based on an independent engineers report, and the discount rate commensurate with the risk profile of the hydrocarbons
The price of the hydrocarbons is determined primarily by liquid market indices at the time of pricing. However, both the discount rate and the volume of the reserve production purchased under the VPP will depend on the risk analysis of reserve profile of the assets
Impact on the VPP proceeds A high ratio of PDP assets to other categories will increase the advance rate and reduce the discount rate
VPP Valuation
Reserve Production Profile
100
Geographical diversity
Geographic diversity is likely to increase the advance rate and reduce the discount rate
Liquidity at the delivery locations enhances the ability of the VPP purchaser to market the hydrocarbons VPP investors will also be concerned about concentration risk at delivery locations
Illiquid delivery locations could reduce the advance rate and increase the discount rate. The VPP purchaser may also require a higher marketing charge for illiquid delivery locations
Pe rio d
Pe rio d
Pe rio d
Pe rio d
Pe rio d
Reserves
VPP Production
Pe rio d
10
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Key Advantages
Raise funds off-balance sheet at a low cost of funding Transfer the reserve production risk Effective management of market risks Maintain upside potential of developing additional reserves Reduce purchase price Benefit from potential off-credit treatment
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