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A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington
But
Does WRF with all its improvements verify better than MM5 for key case studies and over extended verification periods? Do we even have the tools and capabilities to monitoring the evolving quality of our modeling systems? Is it possible that some of the improvements have actually detracted from modeling system skill when used with other components?
What has been the results over the Pacific Northwest where much of this information is available?
The Analysis
Based on this extensive series of runs, let us try to answer (for the NW) the following questions:
What have we gained by moving to WRF? What have we lost? What advantages can one realize from V3.1? Is the NOAH LSM a plus or minus for the key parameters? Are we making progress?
With LSM
With LSM
With LSM
With LSM
Cold Bias
We need a long-term baseline of model performance for best combinations of model physics options or promising option combinations. DTC should take on this key responsibility as an honest and unbiased evaluator of model performance.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
Some Conclusions
LSM greatly improves dewpoint temperature forecasts. LSM improves maximum temperature forecasts, but degrades minimum temperature forecasts.
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
Some Conclusions
LSM greatly improves dewpoint temperature forecasts. LSM improves maximum temperature forecasts, but degrades minimum temperature forecasts.
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM
LSM
No LSM