Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presented to the Minnesota Futurists 16 May 2009 Dick Saunders and David Keenan
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with absurd results. http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Agenda
The Sun Solar Cells
Background How they work Types
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
Large-area, high quality and single junction devices. High energy and labor inputs which limit significant progress in reducing production costs. Single junction silicon devices are approaching theoretical limit efficiency of 33%. Achieve cost parity with fossil fuel energy generation after a payback period of 57 years. (3.5 yr in Europe) Single crystal silicon - 16-19% efficiency Multi-crystal silicon - 14-15% efficiency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Second Generation Thin Film Cells CdTe 4.7% & CIGS 0.5% of 2007 Production
New materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost. As manufacturing techniques evolve, production costs will be dominated by constituent material requirements, whether this be a silicon substrate, or glass cover. Thin film cells use about 1% of the expensive semiconductors compared to First Generation cells. The most successful second generation materials have been cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous silicon and micromorphous silicon. Trend toward second gen., but commercialization has proven difficult.
2007 - First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar cells, 5th largest producer in 2007 and the first to reach top 10 from of second generation technologies alone. 2007 - Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS technology producing 15 MW. 2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2007 with a production . capacity of 430 MW for 2008 in the USA and Germany. 2008 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.
CdTe 8 11% efficiency (18% demonstrated) CIGS 7-11% efficiency (20% demonstrated) Payback time < 1 year in Europe
Third generation technologies aim to enhance poor electrical performance of second generation (thin-film technologies) while maintaining very low production costs. Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60% while retaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques. They can exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single energy threshold material, 31% under 1 sun illumination and 40.8% under the maximal artificial concentration of sunlight (46,200 suns). Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use of multijunction photovoltaic cells, concentration of the incident spectrum, the use of thermal generation by UV light to enhance voltage or carrier collection, or the use of the infrared spectrum for night-time operation. Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other concentrators, but cannot use diffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardware Multi-junction cells 30% efficiency (40-43% demonstrated)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
-- First Generation --
--
Second Generation --
Type
- Third Gen -
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org
Cost Projections
Grid parity where PV cost are equal to residential electricity costs is expected to be achieved first in southern European countries and then to move north
$/kWh $1.35 $1.07 $0.81 $0.54 $0.27 $0.13 ---
GWh /year
Notes
Olmedilla Photovoltaic Park Puertollano Photovoltaic Park Moura photovoltaic power station Waldpolenz Solar Park Arnedo Solar Plant Merida/Don Alvaro Solar Park 17 more 2 more Koethen Nellis Solar Power Plant
Spain Spain Portugal Germany Spain Spain Spain Korea Germany USA
85
Completed September 2008 2008 Completed December 2008 550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe modules. Completed Dec 2008 Completed October 2008 Completed September 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations
Spain
Blessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spain's socialist government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource. In an effort to encourage private individuals and companies to install solar power, Spain introduced subsidies of 0.42 per kilowatt per hour ($0.57/KWhr) (feed-in tariff and off-grid subsidies) But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy in September, a move which is likely to face opposition from within the solar energy industry. 2007: 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies
Germany
10,000 companies, including installers work in solar PV 80 companies are cell and module makers 42,000 employees Sales were $5.7 B including $2.5 B in exports
The feed-in tariff 2008 German utilities pay $0.47 to $0.68/kWh depending on type and size of system for new solar systems Utilities pass cost to consumers Germany average is $1.65/month
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
http://lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg
United States
2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US market US leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearly half the global production 2007 about 50,000 employees CA dominates with 60% of installed capacity Various state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Federal Investment Tax Credits (ITC) are incentives. Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV costs to grid parity by 2015
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html
Chart Data
Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu) Consumption Total US Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Nuclear Electric Power Renewable Energy: Of which: Hydroelectric Geothermal Energy Biomass Solar Energy Wind Energy http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xls 2.446 0.349 3.596 0.081 0.341 36% 5% 53% 1% 5% 101.545 22.776 23.637 39.773 8.415 6.813 22% 23% 39% 8% 7% Share
Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result of growing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs, energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of solar energy has exploded since 2005. Size of U.S. Market 2008 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity. 1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV), 418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power, 485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems 7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems. Ranking of U.S. Market: Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007. 1st Germany 3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th Spain 632 MW Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000 individual PV systems were installed. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected. Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2008 domestic PV cell manufacturing capacity grew 65 percent to 685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW. (Results preliminary) (Source: Greentech Media Research and the Prometheus Institute)
www.seia.org/cs/about_solar_energy/industry_data and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg
Japan
2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure stable energy supply, environmental suitability and use of market mechanisms By 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes 2008 New research initiative to improve yields from 10-15% to 40% and reduce cost from $0.48/kWh to $0.073/kWh
China
2007 National Renewable Energy targets
10% by 2010 (300 MW) 15% by 2020 (1.8 GW)
Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companies Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companies Number 1 PV panel producer 1.1 GW 50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG 82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)
BP Solar
BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2009 Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintain the systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with no up front capital cost to the retailer. Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at Wal-Mart locations in California, and would work with the retailer to evaluate the potential for additional projects. Expects to complete the first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within about 18 months. 2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sams Clubs in CA. Since 1998, BP guarantees its modules for 25 years. BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a global company with about 2000 employees. With over 35 years of experience and installations in most countries, BP Solar is one of the world's leading solar companies. BP is one of the worlds largest energy companies, in more than 100 countries and over 96,000 employees.
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025044&contentId=7046577
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/bp-solar
Q Cells SE
1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of silicon solar cells with 19 employees. By 2009, 2,600 employees (2007, 1700 employees) Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the world. (since 2007) Continue to expand production in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany and start construction of new Malaysian production facility. Alongside the monocrystalline and polycrystalline (90% of business) core business, we use a wide range of technologies to develop and produce thin-film modules. (thin-film - 25% share of smaller market) 2008 Sales $1.69 B 2007 Sales $1.16 B profitable
Sharp Solar
Subsidiary of Sharp Electronics, Osaka, Japan Produces silicon solar cells and thin film, leveraging silicon knowledge from LCD manufacturing 2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square meters of thin-film modules, as we simultaneously build the world's largest thin film manufacturing complex, capable of 10 million square meters per year. And this gigawatt-scale factory is only the first to come. Katsuga City, Nara and Sakai City, Osaka, Japan Thin film efficiency 9%, expecting 10% from GW factory line. Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any other solar mfg in the world. First mfgr to reach 2 GW cumulative production since mass production start in 1963 Memphis, TN 100 MW manufacturing facility
SunTech Power
BEIJING, Jan 12, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX) Chinas solar product maker SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP.NYSE) recently laid off 800 workers or 10 percent of its total employees and postponed its previous plan on recruiting 2,000 people, said Shi Zhengrong, chairman and CEO. SunTech delayed plan to expand production capacity to 1.5 GW in 2009, which requires 2,000 more employees. Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal operation with more than 50% capacity running, compared with 85% prior to financial meltdown. SunTech has received more than 800 MW of orders in 2009 including 650 MW from Europe. 2008 overall orders of 500 MW.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2119252/
SunTech Power
Sales $1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable Employees: 6784 STP:NYSE Wuxi, China Worlds largest silicon cell maker Average conversion efficiency rates of their monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon PV cells 16.4% and 14.9% respectively 10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing plant in US, now shopping states for incentives
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STP
Kyocera Solar
US Solar Division Scottsdale, AZ Subsidiary of Kyocera, Kyoto, Japan (KYO:NYSE) $13B 2008 2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City, China to expand there from 60 MW to 240 MW by 2011. First one in China 03 2012 total production capacity to be 650 MW from Japan, Mexico, the Czech Republic and Tianjin. Technology built on knowledge of fine ceramics, with metals, plastics, and electronics developed for copiers and printers
http://www.kyocerasolar.com/about/
First Solar
TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009-- First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier. 2004 Began full commercial operation. Manufacturing capacity has grown to more than 500 MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to more than 1 GW, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant. Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing costs. Manufacturing costs have declined from over $3 per watt to less than $1 per watt. Further significant cost reductions are possible. First Solar has industrys first and only comprehensive pre-funded, endof-life module collection and recycling program, recycling more than 90% of each collected module into new products. (A serious issue due to Cadmium-Telluride) High throughput, automated lines that integrate each production step, from CdTe semiconductor deposition to final assembly and test, in one continuous process. This advanced manufacturing process transforms a piece of glass into a complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.
www.firstsolar.com/
First Solar
Sales $1.2B 2008, $504M 2007, profitable Employees: 3524 Tempe, AZ FSLR:NASDAQ
finance.google.com
Motech Industries
Modern Technology for a Sustainable World Founded 1981, Motech Solar started 1997 2003 Publicly trades 6244: Taiwan Exchange 2008 8th largest manufacturer 272 MW crystalline and multi-crystal silicon solar cells Plants in Tianan,Taiwan and Kunshan, China 2008 Sales $691M, profitable 1,331 employees
www.motech.com.tw
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy
SolarWorld AG
SWV: Frankfurt exchange 1,825 employees Bonn, Germany with production in Freiborg and Sweden 2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had been largest US solar products maker (fka Arco Solar and Siemens Solar) Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA 2007 acquired Komatsu silicon wafer production facility Hillsboro, OR Single and multi-crystalline silicon cells
http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA:SWV
Sun Power
Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor in 2004, spun out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ HQs in San Jose and Geneva, Switzerland 12 polysilicon solar cell line in Philippines with capacity 314 MW/yr Expansion plan for 1 GW capacity by 2010 High efficiency cells: 21-23% PG&E plans 250 MW facility in CA by 2012 FPL DeSoto Cty 35 MW facility due to open 2009 Nellis 14 MW facility on line Sales: $1.4B for 2008, $775M for 2007 profitable Employees: 5,400
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/best-technology/
http://www.uni-solar.com
http://www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTechnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf
Silikin
Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant share on the Spanish PV market and has installed more than 160 MW of solar PV energy, = 240 GWh, the electricity consumption of more than 63,595 homes. Number of employees: Currently 700 people. Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain and San Diego, CA Sales: 152 million ($207 million) in 2007. Peak power manufactured: has become one of the main manufacturers of PV modules, supplying 92 MW to the market in 08.
http://www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId=1
Some Questions
Will peak minerals (rising cost due to limits in availability) limit growth of thin film and third generation solar cells? Will demand growth in China and India limit growth in US? How about the impact of other national / regional subsidies? How will financial meltdown impact solar cell business? What competing technologies would upset the solar industry? How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd generation solar cells impact the businesses built on 1st generation technology?