S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support

REPRINTED from 4/22/2012

g?

(B)
z
i?

c f

h?

d a

1202

Its still possible that this market makes another nominal high, but the recent decline from 1422 looks severe enough to make that idea a long shot. 1338 looks like an extremely important technical level for the bulls to maintain. A break below 1338 would look very ominous. As it stands, there is a strong probability that weve seen the highs for 2012.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support

(B)
z
i?
g?

c f

h?

d a

1202

Shocker! The S&P 500 double bottomed comfortably above key support and put in a nice rally last week. The longer term wave counts and structure continue to suggest were at or very close to the end of this large (B) wave. But, it makes much more sense to enter the short side of this market only after getting a confirmation of a break down. From just the rally off the 1202 low, the market has failed to break even a previous low. Why bother shorting it until it does? That said the 1440 level, as highlighted on previous reports, looks like strong resistance. So, I would be initiating shorts in front of that level (1425-1440) or I would short on a break down below 1338. Everything in between looks like a no mans land.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 20 Min. Chart

I dont like to look a charts on this small of time scale normally. But, here Im trying to examine the nature of the decline from top. Unfortunately, its ambiguous. It looks more like a seven-legged corrective move lower, but I can see how someone might want to label it an impulse down. The bounce back from the lows looks extremely corrective in nature--bulls should be worried about the look of that sideways/choppy move. This whole pattern strongly suggests another leg down coming on the S&P 500.
[2] [b]

[1] [a]

[4] [d]

REPRINTED from 4/22/2012 - WRONG! We did a get leg down but nothing as significant as I thought it would be.
[.2] [c]

[.1] [3] [c]

[.4] [f]

[a]

[e]

[.3] [e] [d] [b]

[.5] of [5] [g]

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 60 Min. Chart

Im not sure what the proper degree labeling should be here and the count from the 1357 low can go either way. This is just a stab at what the very short term structure might be. On thing is for sure, the move down from 1422 was NOT a classic impulse, to the chagrin of classic Ellioticians. Theres no sign of peaking action to this market, so a full probing of the short term resistance area 1408-1414 seems in the offing to begin the week.
[b] [e] If this is an expanding triangle, the e-wave must exceed the top of the a-c trendline. [d] [c] [c] [f] [a] Daredevile longs/bulls should probably run a stop loss at 1392 for any short term long positions. [e]

[a]

[b]

[g]

[d]

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

U.S. Dollar Index - Monthly

Im overdue for a Dollar Index Update. The next update will begin with an examination of the much larger picture. I cannot give a precise count to this Monthly chart (yet), but a few things stand out to me from a pattern recognition basis. 1) The last three CYCLE legs were corrections, therefore were dealing with a big Triangle; 2) The two waves down were very sharp and severe and theyve lacked capitulative bottoms; 3) The bottoming action has been more whipsaw/grinding in nature. The bottoming in <C> looks remarkably similar to the bottom of the <A> wave. [FRACTALS BABY!]

<B> < D >?

<A> < C >?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.